Guy Boston recommended Michael Toglia under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –140. Toglia has failed to eclipse this mark in seven of his last ten contests (70 %) and is sitting at a 71 % season-long under rate with just 1.47 HRRs per game. Even after a noisy 3-hit showing last night, he has been under in five of his last six overall and in three of his last four lifetime games versus Detroit. The switch-hitter owns a .197 average and 43.1 WRC+, numbers that barely budge against right-handed pitching. He draws Tigers right-hander Casey Mize, whose splits versus left-handed bats are elite this year: 1.53 ERA, .145 average allowed, 1.0 HR/9, .219 wOBA. Boston believes the pitching edge plus Toglia’s extended slump make the under worth paying a little extra juice.

Kingpin played Over 10 runs despite Mize’s talent. Afternoon start, 82-degree temps, and Coors’ 5,200-foot elevation boost run expectancy. The Rockies bullpen has logged the second-most innings in MLB and owns a 5.91 ERA, while Detroit’s lineup ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate. Colorado still posts a .748 OPS at home even in a down year. Kingpin projected 6-4 or 7-5 type final.

Kingpin laid -1.5 with Detroit at -115 in Game 1 of the doubleheader. The Tigers sit 22-13 and have won 7 of 8; the Rockies are a league-worst 6-28. Casey Mize returns with a 2.70 ERA and 56% ground-ball rate that should tame Coors. Kyle Freeland sports a 5.70 ERA, .305 opponent average, and a 12% barrel rate. Detroit’s offense (5th in AL runs) just hung 13 on Milwaukee, and Colorado’s bullpen carries a 5.91 ERA. Kingpin projected a three-plus-run cushion.

Kingpin recommended Spencer Torkelson over 1.5 total bases. The Tigers first baseman leads the club with 10 HR and has a .934 OPS against left-handed pitching. Kyle Freeland has given up a .379 wOBA and 1.8 HR/9 to right-handed bats since 2023. At Coors Field’s thin air, a single gap-shot or early long ball should eclipse the mark quickly.

In game two of the doubleheader, Data Skrive notes numberFire projects a 63.6% win rate for the Tigers with top prospect Jackson Jobe making his debut opposite Tanner Gordon. Jobe brings a 1.94 ERA and 31% strikeout clip from Double-A, while Gordon has allowed five homers in his last two Triple-A outings. With Detroit priced at ‑164 (62.1% implied), the model sees a hair of value plus the intangible of facing MLB’s worst club. If Jobe carries his minor-league whiff rate, Detroit’s edge widens.

numberFire gives Detroit a 62.6% chance in the early game at Coors Field, per Data Skrive. Casey Mize (3.21 ERA, 51% ground-ball rate) draws Kyle Freeland, whose 6.02 ERA is backed by a 7.4% K-minus-BB differential. Even at ‑186 (64.9% implied), the model thinks Detroit’s superior bullpen (3.39 xFIP, 6th best) and Colorado’s 6-29 record justify the chalk. Bettors looking for plus money can consider Detroit ‑1.5 at +102, as the Rockies have lost 24 of 29 by multiple runs.

Data Skrive highlighted Jordan Beck’s Over 1.5 Total Bases at +115 as a live prop against rookie right-hander Jackson Jobe. Beck owns a .551 slugging percentage with 5 homers in only 23 games and is averaging 1.87 total bases per outing. Jobe will be making one of his first MLB starts in the league’s most offense-friendly park, and Colorado’s young outfielder has already posted a .333 OBP and near-40% extra-base-hit rate at home. With Coors Field amplifying every ball in play and Beck’s power profile in mid-season form, the + odds on two bases or more present solid value.

Data Skrive listed Spencer Torkelson’s Over 1.5 Total Bases at +125 as one of its favorite props for Thursday’s matinee at Coors Field. The model pointed to Torkelson’s .535 slugging percentage, 10 homers and 69 total bases through just 36 games (1.92 TB per game) as evidence he is already clearing this mark at a healthy clip. He also draws a premium hitting environment in Denver and a soft matchup against 0-4 left-hander Kyle Freeland. Freeland has historically struggled to miss bats at altitude, while Torkelson carries a .344 OBP and well-above-average hard-hit rate into the contest. The combination of thin air, a favorable platoon split and plus odds make the over an attractive wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks said Detroit was the only side to back in the night-cap at Coors. He pointed to the Tigers’ 22-13 record, their No. 2 team ERA, and a deep relief corps that can handle a bullpen game. Colorado sits 6-28, ranks 28th in ERA, has lost seven straight by 2+ runs and owns the second-worst run-line mark in baseball. Rookie starter Gordon debuts after an 8.65 ERA and .356 opponent average last season, further tilting the matchup. With the Rockies logging only three wins since April 11, he advised laying the run line or taking Detroit straight up.

Lawrence Rupp targeted Jordan Beck at +550 to homer in Game 1 against Detroit, pointing out the rookie's scorching form: five homers and a .791 slugging percentage over the last 15 days while posting a 21.7% barrel rate, fifth-highest in MLB. Beck benefits from Coors Field, Statcast’s No. 1 offensive park since 2023. Opposing starter Casey Mize has coughed up at least one homer in four straight starts and has never pitched in Denver’s thin air. Rupp expects Beck’s recent power surge to continue given the altitude and Mize’s homer issues.

Cash Out Sports Picks also fired on the full-game over, pointing out the perfect storm of a top-10 offense facing one of baseball’s worst pitching staffs in the game’s most hitter-friendly park. Detroit is seventh in runs scored and has cashed the over in six of its last 10 contests, piling up 67 total runs in that span. Colorado has allowed five or more runs in seven of its previous 10 and owns an ERA that ranks 28th league-wide. Freeland’s 8.53 home ERA and .356 opponent average further tilt the projection toward a crooked scoreboard, and even a strong outing from the ground-ball-oriented Mize may not be enough to keep the combined total in check at altitude. With both recent form and venue working in favor of offense, he labeled the over the clear total play.

Kenny G recommended laying the -178 with Detroit in game one of the double-header, calling it a potential lock of the day. Casey Mize is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and faces the league’s worst offense—Colorado ranks last in runs, average (.209) and second-to-last in OBP (.278). The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland (0-4, 5.70 ERA) who has allowed 3-6-1-5-5 earned runs in his last five outings and now draws a Tigers lineup that has scored 8-13-2-9-10 runs in its last five and sits top-10 in every major hitting category (7th in runs, 8th in AVG, 5th in SLG). Detroit’s bullpen sports the second-best ERA in MLB, while Colorado’s is merely average. Factor in Kris Bryant’s looming back procedure, a 6-29 overall record and a 4-11 mark at Coors, and Kenny made the fair price closer to -200/-210, leaving tangible betting value at the current number.

Rob Donaldson went back to the well with Colorado on the first-five run line (+0.5) against Casey Mize. Tuesday’s rainout shuffled rotations, but he likes Kyle Freeland in Coors, citing his 55% ground-ball rate that plays better than Mize’s fly-ball profile in thin air. Weather conditions—warm temps and a light breeze to right—favor the home bats, and Mize has surrendered a .350 wOBA on the road since 2023. Freeland’s familiarity with the altitude plus Colorado’s league-leading home BABIP led Rob to lay two units on the Rockies to be tied or leading after five.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on backing the Detroit Tigers on the moneyline at Coors Field. He noted that Colorado has only three wins since April 11 and sports the league’s 28th-ranked ERA. Casey Mize has stifled opponents all year—31 hits and 11 earned over 36.2 innings with double-digit ground-outs in each of his last three starts—while Kyle Freeland has been torched for 47 hits and 23 earned runs in a nearly identical workload, including an 8.53 ERA and .356 opponent average at home. Detroit’s offense ranks seventh in total runs and has posted 67 runs in its last 10 games. The tout added that the Tigers are 6-4 in the past 10 head-to-head meetings and 3-1 in the four played at Coors. With a deeper lineup, superior starter, and recent momentum, he advised bettors to ride Detroit to “take care of business again.”

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Detroit Tigers in the opener of Thursday’s doubleheader. Colorado has managed only three wins since April 11 and is spiraling. Detroit’s Casey Mize has allowed just 31 hits and 11 runs across 36.2 innings, recording double-digit ground-outs in three straight starts. By contrast, Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland has been shelled for 47 hits and 23 earned runs in the same workload. With the Tigers pushing for AL Central contention and the Rockies stuck in a prolonged slump, the tout sees Detroit as the clear side despite the Denver altitude.

Scott Reichel pounded the full-game over 9.5 in Game 2 of Tigers–Rockies. With Colorado able to call up a spot starter for a double-header, he expects Tanner Gordon (or another Triple-A arm) opposite 21-year-old Jackson Jobe, neither of whom has ever dealt with Coors Field’s thin air. Reichel added that first-timers routinely struggle with pitch grip and movement at elevation. Detroit’s offense has been swinging the bats well, and Colorado’s bullpen is gassed after covering several multi-inning appearances this week. He believes one lineup will "break through" and push the game into double-digit runs, making any total below 10 an autoplay over.

Dylan Rockford said Game 2 of the Tigers–Rockies double-header should be treated like a men’s softball game at altitude. He projects Cater Montero (or possibly Jackson Jobe) for Detroit and Tanner Gordon for Colorado—two minor-league call-ups with little or no big-league success—making his fair line Tigers –180 and total 11. Because nobody knows how long either pitcher will last and Coors always punishes inexperienced arms, Rockford prefers attacking run production instead of a side: full-game over if books hang anything below 11, and Tigers team total over given Detroit’s lineup advantage. He is passing on the spread unless the run-line price improves to –1.5 (–125) or better.

Dylan Rockford laid the lumber with Detroit -1.5 in Game 1 of the twin-bill. Colorado is 4-11 at Coors and has dropped six of Kyle Freeland’s seven starts, giving up 5+ runs in every home outing as he sits on an 8-plus ERA in Denver. The Tigers are 7-3 over their last ten and, according to Rockford, simply playing far better baseball. Even with a bit of juice on the run line, he sees no reason to deviate from the fade-Freeland trend.

JD Bets recommended taking Detroit -1.5 on the run line in their matchup with Colorado, calling the Rockies "cheeks" and the clear worst club in baseball. His model shows Detroit averaging 6.7 runs while Colorado musters just 2.9 over the last 10 games. On the mound, rookie Jackson Jobe has kept opponents to 3-0-1-3 earned runs in four starts, whereas Chase Dollander has been blasted for 4, 2, 6, 6, and 5 earned runs, including six by Washington and five by Kansas City. With a decisive offensive edge and the far steadier starter, JD expects Detroit to "do bad things" and win by multiple runs, making the plus-money run line superior to a straight moneyline wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Detroit–Colorado matchup should cruise past the total thanks to perfect run-scoring conditions and shaky pitching on both sides. He reminded listeners that Coors Field remains the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, noting Denver’s thin air consistently inflates run environments. Detroit’s lineup is stacked with legitimate power—Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter all own double-digit home-run pace seasons—and that thump is magnified against struggling rookie Chase Dollander, who has already been rocked for a 6.48 ERA and six homers in just three starts. While Jackson Jobe gives the Tigers an edge on the mound, the tout emphasized that Jobe has not been spotless, allowing traffic in two of his last three outings, which should let Colorado’s lineup contribute a few runs. With Detroit capable of threatening the number on its own and the Rockies likely to do enough damage to help, he graded the Over as the best total play on the board.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the run line with Detroit, emphasizing form and matchup. The Tigers own an .888 OPS and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past ten days, while Colorado has scuffled to a .607 OPS and 55 wRC+ versus righties in the same span. Rookie Chase Dollander has been roasted for 13 runs (10 earned) in two Coors Field starts and five-plus runs in two of his last three overall. By contrast, Jackson Jobe has held opponents to two earned or fewer in three of his previous four outings and profiles well outside homer-happy Minute Maid. Detroit is 3-1 in its last four series and just took three of four from the Angels, whereas Colorado sits on only six wins all season. With Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter swinging hot bats in MLB’s most hitter-friendly park, the tout projects Detroit to win comfortably and cover.

Guy Boston circled Jackson Jobe as the daily betting centerpiece in Coors. Jobe relies on a slider nearly 40 % of the time, and Boston stressed that Colorado owns a bottom-five run value against that pitch type. Even with the altitude risk, Boston trusts the matchup enough to lay –118 on Detroit –0.5 in the first five innings, noting the Tigers hold a clear SP edge over rookie Chase Dollander. Boston added Jobe’s strikeout prop—Over 4.5 at plus money—as a correlated play, reasoning that the Rockies’ projected lineup strikes out 25 % versus right-handed sliders and whiffed 11 times against another slider-heavy arm two nights ago. Jobe’s surface stats (3.38 ERA) look merely decent, but Boston pointed out his 14 % swinging-strike rate in three road starts and believes five punch-outs is a median outcome if the breaking ball is sharp. He recommends a half-unit on the F5 run line and a quarter-unit on the K prop, projecting Detroit up 3-1 through five with Jobe racking up 5–6 strikeouts.

Razzle said Jackson Jobe is a fringe GPP option at Coors Field and would slot him behind Simeon Woods Richardson in his pitching pool. Jobe’s appeal is the big-time stuff—upper-90s fastball and a prospect pedigree that could lead to strikeout upside even in the altitude. Razzle noted that Colorado’s projected reverse-split tendencies matter; if Bud Black loads the lineup with left-handed bats, Jobe’s cutter/slider combination actually profiles better and he would move up a tier. Even so, the analyst worries about trusting any rookie right-hander in Coors, pointing out that Jobe has yet to work deep in games and the Tigers are modest road underdogs, limiting win equity. Bottom line: do not roster him in cash games and only consider him in tournaments if the Rockies roll out at least six lefties.

Shubham Soni labeled Kerry Carpenter a sneaky +340 HR prop in Coors. Carpenter just went 4-for-6 with five RBI on Tuesday and has three homers in his past six contests while slashing .295 with eight total bombs on the year. He draws Chase Dollander, whose extreme fly-ball profile has yielded eight home runs in only five starts, including a four-homer shelling versus Washington. With Coors Field’s thin air and Dollander’s 2.3 HR/9, Soni sees Carpenter’s lefty power stroke as a perfect fit for another moonshot.

Savio urged bettors to take Detroit -1.5 at -110 against MLB’s worst club. Colorado owns the league’s worst record, league-low .620 OPS, and third-worst 5.38 ERA, now further crippled by injuries to Thairo Estrada, Ezequiel Tovar, and Kris Bryant. Rookie Chase Dollander (2-3, 6.48 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) flashes upside but remains erratic, a bad match against a Tigers lineup hitting .305 over the last seven days. Detroit counters with their own rookie, Jackson Jobe (2-0, 3.38 ERA overall; 2.70 ERA in May), who has been markedly steadier than Dollander. Given Colorado’s lack of offense and bullpen depth, Savio expects Detroit’s young arm to cruise while the Tigers lineup piles up runs at Coors, covering the spread.

Eric Pathi said the right move for May 7th is to punch the Rockies moneyline ticket because the Tigers simply do not cash when they leave Comerica. Detroit is 22-13 overall and up $440 for $100 bettors, but that profit disappears on the highway where they are down $176. Pathi emphasized that Detroit’s bankroll bump has come from being an underdog (7-8 as a dog) rather than a chalk side, yet oddsmakers are hanging an –185 number ("laying 85 cents") with Tarik Skubal’s replacement, Jackson Jobe, in Coors Field. His rule: when a generally profitable team turns unprofitable on the road and is asked to lay a big price, you auto-bet the opposing dog regardless of that dog’s season record. He reminded viewers that this angle already produced a Rockies upset last week for his Dime Club subscribers who pocketed $2,520. In short, the play is Colorado +160ish, framed as a bet against Detroit rather than a belief in Colorado.

Eric Pathi said the right move for May 7th is to punch the Rockies moneyline ticket because the Tigers simply do not cash when they leave Comerica. Detroit is 22-13 overall and up $440 for $100 bettors, but that profit disappears on the highway where they are down $176. Pathi emphasized that Detroit’s bankroll bump has come from being an underdog (7-8 as a dog) rather than a chalk side, yet oddsmakers are hanging an –185 number ("laying 85 cents") with Tarik Skubal’s replacement, Jackson Jobe, in Coors Field. His rule: when a generally profitable team turns unprofitable on the road and is asked to lay a big price, you auto-bet the opposing dog regardless of that dog’s season record. He reminded viewers that this angle already produced a Rockies upset last week for his Dime Club subscribers who pocketed $2,520. In short, the play is Colorado +160ish, framed as a bet against Detroit rather than a belief in Colorado.

Chris Welsh’s official home-run call is Kerry Carpenter at +350 in Colorado. Welsh likes the combination of thin air and struggling rookie right-hander Chase Dolander, who, according to Welsh, "has a little bit of a home-run problem" thanks to a below-average 34% ground-ball rate and a four-seamer that flattens out at altitude. Carpenter owns a .558 SLG and 11 of his 15 career homers off right-handed pitching, making him exactly the profile that punishes Coors Field mistakes. Welsh reminded listeners that Carpenter’s 46% hard-hit rate puts him inside the top quartile of MLB hitters and predicts the Tigers DH will see at least one belt-high fastball he can launch onto the party deck. He called the +350 tag a rare value on a power bat in Coors.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out a mismatch narrative at Coors Field: Detroit sits 22-13 and owns MLB’s 5th-best batting average, while Colorado has only six wins in 34 tries and grades near the bottom in every meaningful stat. Rookie right-hander Jackson Jobe carries a 3.38 ERA and has led Detroit to victory in all of his starts. Opposite him, the Rockies’ staff has imploded with a 5.45 home ERA. Given Detroit’s division-leading form and Colorado’s league-worst record, the tout labeled the Tigers money line a must-bet even at altitude.

Data Skrive’s algorithm calls for Detroit to leave Denver with a 6-4 victory, making the Tigers a playable –185 favorite against a Rockies club limping along at 6-28. Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe (2-0, 3.38 ERA) has flashed a 95-mph sinker and 31% whiff rate, while Colorado counters with Chase Dollander, who has been shelled for a 6.48 ERA and allows 1.9 HR/9—never ideal at altitude. Despite Jobe’s promise, Coors Field’s run environment pushes the model to the Over 9.5 runs as well. The Tigers’ offense ranks league-average but should get a boost from the park factor and Dollander’s command issues (11% walk rate). Bettors looking for a parlay piece can pair Detroit’s moneyline with the Over for plus-odds.

Shubham Soni recommended Spencer Torkelson at +475 to leave the yard in Denver. The Tigers slugger has 2 homers in his last 4 games and sits at 10 bombs, 27 RBIs and 25 runs despite a modest .234 average. Soni highlighted elite hitting conditions at Coors Field and a dream matchup against rookie Chase Dollander, who owns a 6.48 ERA and has already yielded 8 homers in only 25 innings. The thin Colorado air combined with Torkelson’s recent uptick in hard-hit rate makes +475 an attractive long-shot ticket, according to Soni.

Guy Boston said he would sprinkle the Rockies money-line and, more importantly, look to the full-game over at Coors. Rookie Jackson Jobe has flashed talent but has yet to put together back-to-back quality starts and now has to deal with the altitude in his first trip to Denver. Detroit’s lineup is on a heater, plating 9-plus runs in three of the last five contests, while Colorado’s ISO and slugging spike dramatically at home, where they can reasonably supply four or five runs of their own. Boston noted that combination easily gets the game past the current total of 10 (he mentioned liking anything 10.5 or lower). He called the side a lean only because the Tigers are slight road favorites, but the over is the actionable angle thanks to Detroit’s current surge and the Rockies’ familiar home boost.

Francis laid the −1.5 run line with Detroit in Colorado. He cited the Tigers covering the run line in five straight spots as road favorites against NL clubs and being first in their division, while the Rockies have looked like baseball’s doormat. Given the talent gap and Detroit’s recent habit of winning comfortably, he expects another multi-run victory at Coors.

Francis laid the −1.5 run line with Detroit in Colorado. He cited the Tigers covering the run line in five straight spots as road favorites against NL clubs and being first in their division, while the Rockies have looked like baseball’s doormat. Given the talent gap and Detroit’s recent habit of winning comfortably, he expects another multi-run victory at Coors.

Peterson went Over 10 (model 10.3) at Coors Field. Colorado averages 4.3 runs and hits .234 at home versus just 2.2 runs on the road, while Detroit is second in AL road scoring at 5.2 runs per game. Rookie Chase Dollander owns a brutal 6.49 ERA with 2.9 HR/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and the thin air won’t help. The combination of altitude, a homer-prone rookie, and an elite road offense led Peterson to expect double-digit fireworks.

Bettor Mark called the Tigers "the most underrated team in baseball" and recommended sprinkling futures money on them to win the AL Central. His case: Detroit’s offense owns more explosive upside than Cleveland’s and now features Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Colt Keith all posting career-best barrel rates. On the mound, the emergence of ace Tarik Skubal plus a wave of young arms—including today’s starter Jobe—gives the Tigers legitimate depth across a 162-game grind. Mark emphasized that injuries can flip the division quickly, but Detroit’s current mix of power, speed and strike-throwing makes their +450 (consensus) divisional odds mis-priced.

Bettor Mark locked in an official two-leg money-line parlay that pays +164 by coupling the Tigers and Dodgers. He called Detroit "our dance partner" because he believes Jobe (the rookie right-hander getting the start in Colorado) has big-league stuff right now and faces a Rockies lineup striking out 24% of the time against righties. Mark also thinks Detroit’s offense is deeper than people realize, noting they rank top-10 in hard-hit rate and soon get Tarik Skubal every fifth day, which keeps the bullpen fresh for getaway games like this one. The Dodgers side of the ticket is the same angle he mentioned Monday—Tony Gonsolin versus fade-machine Cal Quantrill and L.A.’s scary top four (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, Hernandez). With both favorites sitting in the –180 to –200 range, the parlay creates plus money without having to swallow heavy chalk on either club individually.

Kenny G leaned to Detroit despite the –175 price, citing a mismatch in every phase. Rookie Jackson Jobe owns a 3.38 ERA and has yet to allow more than three earned in any start; he now draws MLB’s worst offense—Colorado ranks dead-last in runs, batting average, and OBP and just dropped three straight to San Francisco. Detroit’s lineup, meanwhile, has caught fire with 13-2-9-10 runs in its last four and sits tied for fourth in scoring and fifth in average thanks to hot bats from Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson. The Tigers’ bullpen has been elite (third-best ERA in baseball), whereas the Rockies’ pen, while improved to 3.88, is still untrustworthy behind Chase Dollander’s 6.48 ERA. Colorado is an MLB-worst 4-11 at Coors and 22-11-1 to the under, underscoring how little their bats threaten even at altitude. Kenny passed on the 9.5 total but declared Detroit ML a "small but solid" play, projecting the Tigers to control the game from the mound and at the plate.

It's The Final Round said Riley Greene is a smash play for Tuesday’s slate against rookie right-hander Chase Dollander. Dollander leans on his four-seam fastball 52% of the time and has coughed up a .333 AVG and five homers with the pitch. Greene owns a .379 average and three bombs against four-seamers this season and is at .300 or better versus every secondary offering in Dollander’s arsenal. Greene has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and sits in the 99th percentile for launch-angle sweet spot (32.6%), while Dollander ranks in the bottom third of MLB for allowing balls in that profitable 8–32° window (43.2%). The tout expects Greene to clear his hits/total-bases lines and calls him a strong home-run sprinkle.