Morgan framed Lance McCullers as a GPP dart at $7,700. Although the righty hasn’t appeared in the majors since the 2022 World Series, he tossed four and five scoreless innings in his last two Triple-A rehab starts. The White Sox rank bottom-eight in both runs and OPS, so even a limited 5-to-6 inning workload could generate value if McCullers’ stuff is close to form.

Kelly Kirby said Shane Smith is her preferred Monday streamer, noting Kansas City’s offense is still near the bottom of the league in OBP and is highlighted in green on the FantasyPros Streamer Tool. Smith has quietly piled up 26 strikeouts over 32 innings with a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, numbers Kirby believes play well against a Royals lineup that continues to chase outside the zone at a top-10 rate. Even if Cole Ragans makes the start for Kansas City, Kirby is fine taking the ratio help and strikeout upside Smith offers in a week where viable one-day rentals are scarce.

The podcast also recommended the over, citing recent trends and pitching plans. Houston has cashed five straight overs and Chicago three of its last five. Both sides will lean heavily on relief arms, a scenario that often produces crooked numbers. Even with team batting averages below .250, the constant bullpen changes and Houston’s recent offensive uptick led Cash Out Sports to project enough scoring to beat the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed Houston on the money line despite Lance McCullers Jr. making his first MLB appearance since 2022. McCullers is expected to work briefly, handing the game to a bullpen ranked fourth in ERA and WHIP and seventh in opponent average. Chicago’s lineup is hitting just .216 and owns a 7-13 day-game record. The White Sox will deploy a bullpen day themselves, giving Houston’s hitters a favorable matchup to break out of their early-season funk.

JD Bets said to smash Erick Fedde’s earned-runs prop at over 2.5 (-133) in Saturday’s start against the Mets. He highlighted several ugly data points: every projected New York starter owns at least a .254 average off Fedde with Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso both sitting at .333 and multiple Mets already taking him deep. Fedde’s wobbly control—2.7 walks per start on a 2.5 line—and a recent outing in which Milwaukee tagged him for 10 hits underscore how often he lets traffic on the bases snowball. Rather than chase volatile walk or hit props, JD wants the simpler path: New York hangs three runs on Fedde within the first five innings, eliminating bullpen variance entirely. In his words, “y’all just do what you normally do against Fetty.”

JD Bets locked in Luis Robert over 0.5 hits against Astros right-hander Hunter Brown at roughly -140. Robert owns a 5-for-9 career line off Brown with a homer and a 1.589 OPS, and he rides a seven-game hitting streak into Saturday. Brown has surrendered at least one hit to Robert in every previous meeting and has been touched up in two straight outings. Rather than chase the longer +410 home-run price, JD prefers the safer hits market, expecting Robert to make solid contact early before Brown’s typical 5–6 inning leash ends his night. With the White Sox already on a surprising two-game winning streak over Houston, JD sees Robert’s hit prop as the lone playable edge in an otherwise tricky game.

Bettor Mark’s second official bet is Under 4 runs in the first five innings of Astros-White Sox at ‑110 (BetMGM). He trusts Houston ace-in-waiting Hunter Brown, whose early-season form has been “nothing short of fantastic” and has him in the early Cy Young conversation. On the flip side, Chicago owns a 9-23 record, sits firmly on Mark’s fade list, and ranks near the bottom of MLB in every key offensive split. Combining Brown’s strike-throwing with the White Sox’s sputtering lineup, Mark does not expect either club to create a crooked number early. Bettors wanting extra cushion can pay up for Under 4.5 (-135 at Bet365), but Mark is comfortable living with the push risk at four.

Soni viewed Yordan Alvarez as a buy-low bomb candidate at +265 even though he is slugging just .210 with three homers. He pointed to Alvarez’s underlying muscle – a 94.1 mph average exit velocity and 34.6 % hard-hit rate – as proof the results are coming. Against a White Sox staff allowing the fifth-highest HR/9 to lefties, Soni expects Alvarez’s power regression to hit pay dirt on Saturday.

Kenny G’s primary lean is Under 8.5 runs in Astros-White Sox. Houston’s lineup has scored three or fewer in five of its last seven and sits 23rd in runs, 25th in slugging. Chicago is even worse—25th in runs, 29th in average—despite two recent wins. On the mound, Hunter Brown is 4-1 with a stingy 1.22 ERA, while Davis Martin hasn’t allowed an earned run in back-to-back road starts versus Minnesota and Oakland. Houston owns the 4th-ranked bullpen; Chicago’s relief corps is merely average but no longer a disaster. With two hot starters and ice-cold offenses, Kenny expects offense to be "at a premium" and labeled the under his biggest lean of the matchup.

Although the under is his preferred angle, Kenny G also suggested a small play on Chicago +250 (or +1.5 runs) against Houston. He cited Davis Martin’s recent scoreless streak, an Astros lineup that has produced zero or one run in two of its last three, and the expectation of a one-run game given both teams’ run-suppressed profiles. With the total low and value on the big home dog, Kenny thinks backing the Sox in a likely pitchers’ duel makes sense—even if it won’t earn the "dog of the day" label.

Dylan Rockford echoed the Astros play and suggested laddering to –2.5 runs for extra value. He highlighted Hunter Brown’s road dominance—3-0 record, 1.13 ERA, only three earned runs allowed over 24 innings away from Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile the White Sox slash just .210/.276/.334 at Guaranteed Rate Field and average 3.5 runs. Chicago is 3-7 over its last 10 and has dropped five of Davis Martin’s past six starts. With Houston’s lineup clicking and Brown mowing hitters down, Rockford projected a comfortable blowout and felt alternate runlines offered a juicy payout.

Scott Reichel urged bettors to grab Houston –1.5 at –130 before it disappears. He called Hunter Brown a legitimate Cy Young candidate, pointing to a 1.74 ERA overall while consistently giving the Astros at least five dominant innings. Opposite him is Davis Martin, whose 4.70 ERA comes with Chicago losing five of his last six starts. The White Sox offense is batting only .210 at home and scoring 3.5 runs per game, making run support unlikely. Reichel loved that the Bet365 price represented a $1.20 discount off the –250 moneyline, adding that the White Sox remain a laughingstock and that Brown’s current form should translate to a multi-run victory.

Eric Pathi advised taking the White Sox +1.5 runs at +120 in their 5/3 matchup with the Astros. Pathi’s angle is simple but actionable: Chicago just beat Houston 7-3, yet the books reopened them as a "huge underdog" for the very next game. He likes grabbing the south-siders on the run line because bettors get an underdog that is already showing form plus the cushion of 1.5 runs while still being paid plus money. Pathi framed it as a classic overreaction spot where yesterday’s upstart winner remains mis-priced.

Mike Maher advised aggressively buying low on Luis Robert while pessimism is still high. Robert’s stat line looks ugly, but over the last week he quietly hit .273 with two homers and four steals, showing the power-speed combo is alive. Maher highlighted that Robert’s walk rate has doubled because pitchers have no reason to challenge him in the dreadful White Sox lineup—evidence that the skills have not evaporated. Maher believes a trade is coming "sooner rather than later," with the Dodgers already rumored. A move to a contender would turbo-charge counting stats and morale, similar to past pinstripe-fueled revivals. He suggested flipping mid-tier arms like Christopher Sanchez, Bryan Woo, Sonny Gray, MacKenzie Gore, or Bailey Ober to land Robert before the batting average normalizes (even .250 would end the discount) and he’s no longer affordable.

Kelly Kirby said Yordan Alvarez is the ideal buy-low candidate right now because the underlying data screams that a rebound is coming. Despite the surface .219 batting average (career .295) and a limp .354 slugging percentage, his expected slug is .502, almost 150 points higher. Kirby noted that panicked managers in their Discord are actively shopping him, creating an opportunity to pry away a first-round bat for a discount. She suggested floating another slumping name, even someone as recognizable as Jose Altuve, to get the deal done. Kirby acknowledged Alvarez’s chronic knee issues but emphasized that nothing in the batted-ball metrics hints at lost power—only poor variance that should correct as temperatures rise. In standard season-long formats, she expects a hot streak that pushes the average back into the .260-.270 range with the trademark home-run pace intact, making him a steal at current market value.

Kyle Purviance said he has stopped fading the White Sox whenever bookmakers list them as underdogs and now treats Chicago as an automatic bet in that role. Purviance acknowledged that every left-handed split and OPS number still paints the Sox as a bottom-three offense versus southpaws, yet they continue to cash plus-money tickets because their actual in-game results keep outpacing the underlying metrics. He pointed to Friday’s matchup where Chicago, despite ranking 28th in OPS against lefties and showing negative run values for nearly every hitter, lit up Framber Valdez and Houston early. Purviance argued the market is over-reacting to those ugly season-long stats while ignoring how streaky baseball is and how quickly regression can come for both hitters and pitchers. Until pricing adjusts, he plans to blindly back the Sox any time oddsmakers make them dogs.

The computer likes Houston -250, projecting a 5-4 Astros victory. Hunter Brown owns a sparkling 4-1 record with a 1.22 ERA, a sharp contrast to White Sox right-hander Davis Martin’s 1-3 mark. Chicago is 9-23 overall, so the algorithm is content to eat the juice with the 16-15 Astros and play the total over 8 runs.

Cash Out Sports Picks paired the Astros side with the UNDER. Houston games have cashed UNDER in 16 of 30 (two pushes) thanks to a modest 3.9 RPG offense that dips to 3.25 on the road. Chicago sits dead-last in home scoring and has stayed below the total in 14 of 31 (three pushes). Brown’s stinginess (0 HR allowed his last four outings) and Martin’s recent success keeping the ball in the yard create a perfect recipe for a low-scoring afternoon at Guaranteed Rate Field, so the tout projects fewer than the posted runs.

The tout advised betting Houston to win and cover the run-line behind rookie flamethrower Hunter Brown. Brown closed April with a video-game 0.87 ERA, allowing just 20 hits and 3 earned across 31 frames. Chicago’s offense has perked up for two straight wins but still owns MLB’s worst home scoring rate at 3.43 runs. Meanwhile starter Drew Martin sports a 4.62 ERA and faces an Astros lineup that historically rebounds quickly after a home loss. With the White Sox piling up 245 losses since 2023 and losing Martin’s last three home starts, Cash Out Sports Picks sees too many paths to a multi-run Houston victory.

Although Data Skrive’s model forecasts Houston squeezing out a 5-4 victory (52% win probability), the article notes that bookmakers are asking bettors to lay ‑256 on the Astros—odds that imply a hefty 71.9% chance of success. Houston has managed to win only 50% of the 22 games in which they have been favored this season and went 5-4 as moneyline favorites over their last ten. With that modest edge contrasted against the steep price, the piece implicitly warns against paying the current moneyline and suggests looking elsewhere—either the run line or total—for value.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 final in Chicago on May 3, nudging the combined score to nine and recommending the Over on the 8-run total. The model pointed to several supporting trends: Houston games have cleared the number in five of their last ten, while Chicago contests have gone Over in six of their past ten. During that same span the Astros are averaging 4.3 runs with a 2.79 staff ERA, and the White Sox are plating 4.6 runs with a 3.28 ERA, suggesting both offenses are in decent form but neither bullpen is untouchable. Hot bats such as Jeremy Pena (.385 over his last ten) and Luis Robert (three homers in his past ten) add further upside to run production. With an even money price on the Over (-106) compared to juiced Under (-114), the article framed the Over 8 as the preferred wager.

Peterson played Under 8 (projected 7.3) behind two hot starters and two ice-cold lineups. Houston’s Hunter Brown has given up just one earned run over his past 25 frames, while Chicago’s Davis Martin owns a 3.26 season ERA and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four appearances. Offensively, the White Sox rank 27th in home scoring (3.7 RPG) and Houston checks in 23rd on the road (3.25 RPG).

Dan Marcus said Hunter Brown is the no-doubt ace of Saturday’s main DraftKings slate. Brown is averaging 25.1 DK points per start and now gets a White Sox lineup that, while scrappy, is still missing elite bats. Chicago owns bottom-five marks in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching, giving Brown a clear path to strikeout upside and win equity on a day without many reliable value arms.

Razzle will eat the Framber Valdez chalk. The lefty is –250 on the moneyline and +100 to secure the win—tied for best on the slate. His 5.5 K prop mirrors Fried’s, but the matchup is far softer: Chicago’s 27.8% K rate and MLB-worst .091 ISO versus southpaws. Valdez can be wild, yet the White Sox lack patience (29th in walk rate). Ownership projections already show 22.5%, but Razzle still ranks Valdez a top-three cash anchor and viable GPP lock button.

Cash Out Sports Picks also grabbed the under, arguing that a Valdez-Cannon matchup profiles as a pitchers’ duel. Valdez is fresh off a complete game and has held opponents to a .212 average this season, while Chicago ranks in the league’s bottom half in both walk rate and strikeout avoidance. Cannon, despite occasional wildness, owns a 9.8 K/9 that can neutralize an Astros offense Cash Out called “hit or miss.” The White Sox’s decision to swing early in counts should keep pitch counts low, shortening innings and favoring an under. Factoring in a cool Chicago evening and a total that opened a half-run higher than Valdez’s average number this year, the tout projects a 4-2 type finish that sneaks below the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Houston to win and cover the run line, pointing to Framber Valdez’s complete-game effort in his last start and the added benefit of a rested bullpen after Thursday’s day off. The tout noted Chicago sits 15 games under .500, owns a bottom-tier OPS, and is experimenting with an ultra-aggressive approach that has only increased strikeouts. Valdez has already silenced the White Sox once, while rookie hurler Tanner Cannon is still fighting command issues. With Houston’s core lineup unchanged from last year and capable of a crooked number at any moment, the tout expects Valdez to limit Chicago to six or fewer hits and the Astros’ bats to create the separation needed to cash the run-line price.

Kenny G leaned toward laying the steep –250 with Houston, arguing the matchup tilts almost entirely in the Astros’ favor. Framber Valdez is coming off an eight-inning, three-hit outing and owns quality starts in three of his last four. He now faces a White Sox lineup that sits 30th in slugging, 20th in runs and has been shut out or held to two runs in four of its last five. Rookie Jonathan Cannon’s 4.50 ERA looks playable on paper, but Kenny pointed out his hard-hit rate spikes the third time through the order and Chicago’s 4.37 bullpen ERA offers no safety net. Conversely, Houston’s relief corps is third-best in MLB at 2.64, and its own bats have shown life with 4, 6, 8 and 7 runs in successive games. Kenny expects Chicago to be lucky to scratch a run, making the Astros moneyline playable even at heavy chalk and keeping the under 7.5 in consideration for bettors who hate laying that kind of price.

Kelly Kirby said she would bet on the Astros to win the AL West once again. Her reasoning: (1) Seattle’s margin for error disappears if Logan Gilbert’s forearm issue lingers, stealing the one rotation advantage the Mariners had over Houston; (2) she remains "not a big Rangers believer," noting that any Jacob deGrom setback would thin an already shaky Texas staff; (3) Oakland’s fun, offense-heavy start will be neutralized on the road and by league-wide pitching adjustments, and (4) the Angels are already under .500 despite over-achieving relative to pre-season expectations. Kirby framed Houston as the only roster in the division with both top-10 lineup depth and a workable six-man pitching plan, giving them the inside track in futures markets and reinforcing the idea that fantasy managers can count on Astros hitters for sustained run-production volume the rest of the season.

Mike Maher called Hunter Brown "100 percent real" and urged listeners to trade for him before the wider market accepts that the breakout already happened. Brown owns a 2.92 expected ERA, matching the run he posted after June 1 last year when he ditched the four-seam up in the zone for more sinker/curve combos. Maher highlighted the key growth area: walk rate down to 6.1% after sitting above 10% in early 2023. The strikeout rate remains a robust 28%, and Brown’s ground-ball rate has climbed to 49%, insulating him from Minute Maid’s short porches. With Houston stretching him to 100-plus pitches and backing him with a top-10 bullpen, Maher projected 11-12 wins and 170+ strikeouts the rest of the way, making him a top-25 starter in season-long formats.

Kirby flat-out dismissed Lance McCullers as a fantasy option, stating she has "never had interest" and sees none now despite reports of an upcoming return. The long injury layoff, chronic forearm/elbow issues, and McCullers’ historically bloated walk rate (career 9.8%) make him too risky. She would only consider him in ultra-deep dynasty formats where an IL slot costs nothing; otherwise, she prefers to leave the inevitable first-start pitch count and command hiccups for someone else to endure.

B Wade called Alex Bregman his favorite Friday play, backing over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Joe Ryan. Bregman has smashed this line in 11 straight games and 13 of his last 14. In 12 career at-bats versus Ryan he is 6-for-12 (.500). On the season, the Astros third baseman is batting .343 against right-handers with seven homers and 25 RBI. With Bregman scorching and facing a pitcher he historically punishes, Wade expects the streak to roll on.

Romanelli is laying the run line with Houston, noting Framber Valdez has tossed 14 innings of four-run ball over his last two starts yet received just two total runs of support. He expects that to change against rookie Jonathan Cannon and a bottom-tier White Sox bullpen. Romanelli liked the quality of Houston’s late-inning at-bats against Detroit— multiple comeback wins and several bases-loaded chances in the finale— and believes those trends carry over even on the road. With Valdez still dealing and Cannon’s 4.83 xERA backed by ugly hard-hit data, Romanelli predicts the Astros win comfortably by multiple runs.

Chris Welsh’s favorite plus-money swing on Thursday’s board is Jackson Chourio to homer at +430. Chourio draws rookie right-hander Sean Burke and a White Sox bullpen with a 5+ ERA, but Welsh’s main selling point is the 17 mph wind blowing straight out to Chourio’s pull side at American Family Field. The rookie already owns a .290 ISO versus righties, and Welsh believes any well-struck fly ball has a great chance of carrying. He paired the homer ticket with his previously mentioned over 1.5 total-base play and said bettors looking for a longer shot could ladder Chourio’s HR plus Milwaukee to win at roughly 6-to-1.

Johnny Venezia urged patience with Cam Smith, who is slashing .211/.300/.560 with three homers, an 860 OPS, and a 27.5% strikeout rate in his first taste of big-league pitching. Venezia framed the rough surface numbers as normal rookie turbulence, stressing Smith still flashes enough power, plate discipline, and athleticism to grow into a top-of-the-order bat for Houston once his pitch recognition improves. For now, Venezia is fine with stashing Smith on fantasy benches, but he emphasized that managers should not trade him away and should even probe for a buy-low deal over the next month before the wider market realizes the upside.

Alex Bregman is 6-for-13 (.462) with a homer off Joe Ryan and carries a 10-game hitting streak. After cashing a HR ticket on May 1, the tout is going right back for hit and home-run props.

Mark played Alex Bregman over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, noting the Astros third baseman has cleared that line in 10 straight games against Chicago, Seattle, Cleveland and now Toronto. Facing Jose Berrios—whose 5.6% swinging-strike rate is his worst since 2018—Bregman owns a .382 career wOBA off the right-hander. Batting third in a lineup finally heating up, Bregman should keep the streak alive; Mark’s rule is never bet against a heater in baseball.