Scott Reichel advised laying the small –115 with Arizona because Zac Gallen owns a clear talent gap over rookie Ben Brown and the Cubs’ bullpen is gassed after a 21‑run circus on Friday. Even in an "off" April, Gallen still sports a 27% strikeout rate and sub‑1.10 WHIP, while Brown has yet to see a lineup twice in the same game and is coming off a season‑high 91 pitches. Reichel acknowledged a modest five‑mph wind blowing in at Wrigley but felt the total market (7.5) was already accounting for that. With Chicago’s high‑leverage relievers likely unavailable and Arizona’s offense ranking top‑5 in hard‑hit percentage over the last two weeks, he expects the Snakes to push across late runs and cash the favorite up to –120.

Purviance is betting the over 7.5 at Wrigley with Zac Gallen facing Ben Brown. Friday’s matchup erupted for 24 combined runs after the 5th inning, and Purviance expects another hitter‑friendly environment as long as the wind is not howling straight in. Early weather reports call for neutral‑to‑outbound breezes, and the day game’s 1:05 p.m. start should see warmer air that carries. Gallen has been human on the road, while Brown’s limited MLB sample shows shaky command. Purviance thinks anything 8 or lower is worth a play but locked in 7.5 immediately.

Cash Out Sports Picks still recommended the over despite Gallen’s presence, citing Wrigley Field’s homer‑friendly wind (as seen in Friday’s slugfest), two bullpens with ERAs north of 4.50, and Ben Brown’s early‑season command woes. The Cubs are 14‑7‑1 to the over, while Arizona sits 9‑8‑3. With both starters carrying WHIPs above 1.30 and the potential for late‑inning fireworks once the relievers enter, the tout believes the posted number is a shade too low in this environment.

Cash Out Sports Picks tabbed Arizona on the money line because Zac Gallen is seldom priced this cheaply. While Gallen’s 5.06 ERA through 21.1 innings (19 H, 11 ER, 11 BB) is mediocre, his established track record as a top‑10 MLB arm makes him a buy‑low candidate against a Cubs lineup facing Ben Brown, who has struggled to command the zone and has yet to complete five innings in a start. Even factoring in Wrigley’s hitting conditions, the tout believes Gallen’s swing‑and‑miss arsenal prevails and that Arizona’s offense can exploit Brown and a shaky Chicago bullpen.

Ron took the Diamondbacks on the moneyline and leaned under the posted total. He expects Zac Gallen to flip the script on his rough Opening Day versus Chicago because Saturday’s forecast is pitcher‑friendly: cool temperatures and the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Gallen just held Milwaukee to two runs over six frames and sports noticeably sharper command than he did in start number one. Ben Brown’s 5.09 ERA has been inflated by brutal early matchups (two Dodgers dates, Padres, Athletics) and he is better than the headline stats, but he still draws a top‑5 offense versus right‑handed pitching in Arizona. The Snakes also own the superior bullpen. Add it up and Romanelli sees a tight, lower‑scoring Arizona win.

Eric Pathi advised betting the Chicago Cubs at +100 (listed as plus 10 cents) in their April 19 matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pathi laid out his handicapping rule: when an underdog wins outright and no new negative information emerges, ride that team again if the market still offers a plus price. Chicago just snapped Arizona’s five‑game winning streak 13‑11, signaling momentum on the Cubs’ side. Despite that result, bookmakers opened the rematch with the Cubs as slight dogs. Pathi highlighted the scheduled pitching matchup of Ben Brown for Chicago versus Zac Gowan for Arizona, yet still prefers the Cubs because the broken Diamondbacks streak removes their aura of invincibility and the plus money offers mathematical value. He labeled Chicago his complimentary selection for tomorrow.

Despite near‑even odds (Cubs -109, Diamondbacks -110), Data Skrive’s model sided with Chicago, pointing to the Cubs’ 13‑9 start and home‑field edge at Wrigley against a Diamondbacks club that is 12‑8. The computer also projected the game to go over 7.5 runs, suggesting an uptick in offense after the teams combined for 24 runs the previous day. Bettors looking for plus expected value can take Chicago on the moneyline and pair it with the over.

Kingpin played Carroll Over 1.5 total bases, highlighting Carroll’s .385 OBP vs right‑handers and 97th‑percentile sprint speed. Rookie Ben Brown is allowing a .512 SLG third time through the order and has struggled to hold runners; Carroll can cash with a gap double or a single plus stolen base. Carroll owns a 55% extra‑base‑hit rate on four‑seamers, Brown’s primary pitch.

Kingpin took Over 9.5 runs for D‑backs/Cubs. Chicago is averaging 6.1 runs per home game and just won a 13‑11 opener. Rookie Ben Brown (5.09 ERA, 11% BB rate) faces Arizona’s speedy, power‑balanced lineup, and 10‑mph winds blowing out to right are projected for the matinee. Even if Zac Gallen rebounds, Cubs hitters rank third in MLB in barrels. Historical Wrigley day‑game totals with wind in double digits cash overs 61% of the time.

Guy Boston advised taking Lourdes Gurriel Jr. under 1.5 hits at -225 on DraftKings as the first leg of his Freaky Friday parlay. He noted Gurriel has stayed under this alt‑line in 10 straight games while averaging just 0.3 hits over that stretch. On the season the slugger is 16‑for‑18 (89 %) to the under with only two multi‑hit outings, both coming against the Cubs. Gurriel has failed to top 1.5 hits in 14 consecutive contests and owns a .145 batting average versus right‑handed pitching. In the tiny head‑to‑head sample he is just 1‑for‑5 lifetime against scheduled starter Colin Rea, whose .250 average allowed to righties comes on only 20 batters faced. Boston concluded that with Gurriel barely getting on base—let alone racking up two hits—the under remains the sharp side despite the opponent split.

Bettor Mark advised grabbing Chicago +1.5 runs at –144 in Friday’s opener. He said the Cubs are simply the better all‑around club right now while Corbin Burnes has looked nothing like the Cy Young version Arizona thought it was getting (command issues and a 4.38 ERA through three starts). Chicago counters with Ryan Rhea, whom Mark called “very serviceable”, and he likes the runway Wrigley provides for Chicago’s contact‑heavy lineup. The run‑line gives bettors protection against a one‑run walk‑off or extra‑inning loss, which Mark noted is crucial with the new ghost‑runner rule. He added that Chicago is 8‑3 ATS at home this year and Arizona’s bullpen owns a 5.02 ERA, increasing the likelihood the Cubs stay within one at worst.

Kenny G leaned to the Chicago Cubs at +112 in Friday’s matinee, pointing to three key edges. First, Colin Rea looked "bro was dealing" in his season debut against the Dodgers, punching out five and allowing just one run in 3.2 innings; Kenny likes how the veteran right‑hander matches Arizona with a fastball/splitter combo that neutralizes lefties. Second, Arizona hands the ball to Corbin Burnes (5.28 ERA) who has been merely "decent, not elite" and faces a Cubs lineup that sits 1st in MLB in runs scored, 6th in batting average and 5th in OBP. Third, Arizona’s bullpen (3.48 ERA) has "started to show a few flaws," while Chicago’s biggest weakness—their 4.92 pen—can be protected in a day game with Rea expected to reach 80‑85 pitches. Kenny emphasized the plus‑money price at Wrigley and the wind report calling for a modest cross‑breeze that should keep the ball in the yard, making the home dog a value play even if it won’t make his pinned comment.

Joe Orrico placed Michael Busch ahead of Spencer Torkelson for rest‑of‑season value, calling the debate "close, but give me Busch." Orrico just ran the underlying numbers on Torkelson and expects a repeat of his 2023 line—roughly 30 homers and 90 RBI—but pointed out that Busch is already showing similar power with the added benefit of hitting in a far deeper Cubs lineup. Chicago currently projects a top‑10 run total while Detroit sits bottom‑five, so Busch should out‑pace Torque in runs and RBI despite comparable long‑ball totals. Orrico’s actionable takeaway: if you have room for only one corner bat, roster Busch; if you already have Torque, consider flipping him for Busch plus a sweetener while the market still values Torkelson’s name recognition.

Just A Bet Outside played Corbin Burnes under 5.5 strikeouts at ‑110, arguing the former ace no longer misses bats and now faces a Cubs lineup with the sixth‑lowest strike‑out rate at home versus righties (17.2%). Burnes has logged only six strikeouts over his last 12 innings and has generated just six and eight total whiffs in his past two games; his trademark cutter’s swinging‑strike rate has fallen from an elite 17‑18% to 10.1% with a .286 average against. Walk rate is up, K‑rate has dropped for three straight seasons, and he has given up nine earned runs in 15.1 innings this year. Nine of the 13 non‑Yamamoto right‑handed starters to face Chicago have stayed under this 5.5 line, while even ace‑level arms such as Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease barely scraped over. A 10.5 total and wind blowing out at Wrigley suggest an abbreviated outing, and the Cubs know his repertoire well after years of NL Central matchups when Burnes pitched for Milwaukee. All signs point to the under cashing.

Stephen pointed out that Dansby Swanson destroys Corbin Burnes, going 11‑for‑18 with three extra‑base hits and two homers lifetime. Burnes has not looked like himself, surrendering 2‑4‑3 earned runs in his first three outings while issuing nine walks. With the wind forecast to blow out at Wrigley, Stephen expects Burnes’ command issues to catch up to him and labeled Swanson a prime DFS tournament play and plus‑money total bases target.

Scott Reichel backed the Cubs at +115, calling Corbin Burnes an over‑valued name brand. Burnes owns a 5.28 ERA and has surrendered 3+ earned runs in each of his last three starts (Yankees, Nationals, Brewers). Reichel added that Burns’ underlying command looks off, making Arizona’s –135 price far too steep. On the other side, swingman Jose Ria (three‑plus innings last outing) is a heavy contact arm, so Reichel expects runs from both clubs and likes the full‑game Over 9.5 as well. Chicago’s offense has been a top‑10 unit through 21 games while the Diamondbacks’ bats have produced, highlighted by Corbin Carroll swiping three bags Thursday. With the only Wrigley day game on the slate and the wind projected to be neutral, Reichel labeled the Cubs money‑line his preferred dog play, citing the combination of a hot lineup and a struggling marquee starter laying too much juice.

Bryan Power said the Cubs are the only side he’d consider in Friday’s lone day game at Wrigley. His case: Arizona is laying an inflated price simply because Corbin Burnes is on the mound and the Snakes have won five straight, but Burnes has not been sharp to open 2025 and those five wins came against the Brewers and Marlins—two clubs Power called ‘not very good.’ Chicago owns a +36 run differential, had Thursday off while Arizona played, and is 100 percent healthy. Power likes the situational edge and thinks the wrong team is favored, recommending a play on the Cubs money line.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended Arizona on the money line citing five straight wins, league‑top‑five ranks in walks, strikeout avoidance, and home runs, plus a bullpen trending upward. Corbin Burnes (despite early hiccups) still brings ace‑level upside and draws a Cubs lineup prone to whiffs and stranding runners. Chicago, coming off an off‑day after a 4‑2 loss, has been inconsistent converting chances, whereas Corbin Carroll and company are pressuring pitchers with both power (nine HR in the last three games) and speed. Given Arizona’s offensive balance and momentum, the tout expects the Snakes to stay hot at Wrigley.

It's The Final Round said Corbin Carroll was his favorite target for Friday’s board because every pitch in Colin Rea’s arsenal is getting tattooed by Carroll. Against four‑seam fastballs – the pitch Rea throws 63 % of the time – Carroll owns a .643 average (9‑for‑14) with two homers this season. He is also slugging against Rea’s secondary offerings: .375 vs the curve (3‑for‑8, 2 HR), 1.000 vs the splitter (1‑for‑1, HR) and .400 vs the cutter (2‑for‑5). Carroll has collected at least one hit in 15 of his last 18 games and has a small, positive history against Rea (2‑for‑6, .333). The tout expects another knock and recommends betting Carroll’s hit prop or folding him into parlays.

In his breakdown of the game, Richard Louis highlighted why Arizona is worth a look at ‑1.5 (+116). The Diamondbacks have ripped off five straight wins and are averaging 6.6 runs during that stretch. Corbin Carroll enters on a 10‑game hitting streak while ranking 12th in MLB with a .329 average, tied for fourth in homers (6) and ninth in RBI (16); Josh Naylor has homered in three consecutive games and owns a .328/.382/.672 slash line. Facing a Cubs club that has dropped two of its last three and will counter with Colin Rea—who has struck out only 10 batters in 9 IP—Louis believes Arizona’s red‑hot middle of the order gives them enough firepower to win by multiple runs, especially with Corbin Burnes projected for positive regression after an uncharacteristic 5.28 ERA through his first two starts.

Richard Louis reported that the SportsLine Projection Model ran 10,000 simulations of Friday’s matchup at Wrigley Field and projects only 9.1 combined runs, well below the current 11‑run total posted at FanDuel. The model is on an 8‑3 (+340) money‑line run this season and recommends betting the Under, citing both Chicago’s recent offensive lull (only six total runs in their last three games) and the fact that Colin Rea has opened 2025 with a 1.00 ERA across two starts. Although Arizona arrives on a five‑game winning streak, the model still sees value in fading a double‑digit total given that Wrigley’s early‑season temperatures are expected to sit in the mid‑50s with a modest 7‑mph cross‑wind, conditions that historically suppress home‑run carry at this park.

Data Skrive’s projection model sided with the Cubs on the moneyline at +105 even though oddsmakers opened Arizona as a –125 favorite. The algorithm cited Chicago’s 12‑9 start, home‑field edge at Wrigley Field for the 2:20 p.m. first pitch, and a generous 11‑run total it expects to stay Under. It spits out a straight‑up Cubs victory while leaning Under 11, giving bettors both a plus‑odds side and a correlated total angle.

It's The Final Round highlighted Corbin Carroll's remarkably consistent offensive production of late. Carroll has produced hits in 13 of his past 16 games, pushing him into the spotlight as a trustworthy hitter to consider in betting and DFS decisions.