Ryan Wooden highlighted Matt Olson as SportsLine’s top HR prop for Sunday at +450 on FanDuel. Wooden noted Olson’s long-term power resume (266 career homers, MLB-leading 54 in 2023) and the fact that six of his seven bombs this season have come off right-handed pitching. He faces Pirates rookie Carmen Mlodzinski, whose 6.16 ERA includes two homers surrendered in his last start versus St. Louis. Wooden added that Olson owns a .881 career OPS against righties and will benefit from a mild breeze blowing out to right field in warm Pittsburgh conditions. The pick is backed by SportsLine’s model, which is up 33.8 units on HR props over the past 33 days.

Morgan highlighted Ozzie Albies at a bargain $2,900, reminding readers that second base is usually a wasteland and Albies still offers five homers and five steals in 2025. He draws Carmen Mlodzinski, a former reliever struggling mightily as a starter with a 6.16 ERA across seven outings. Morgan expects the Braves’ switch-hitter to take advantage of the mismatch and provide salary relief without sacrificing upside in Atlanta stacks.

Chris Morgan recommended paying the $10,400 premium for Chris Sale on Sunday’s FanDuel slate, pointing out that the 36-year-old southpaw has quieted early-season concerns by allowing no more than two runs in each of his last three outings and racking up 10 strikeouts in both of the past two. The matchup sweetens the deal: outside of Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh’s bats have been dreadful and currently rank dead last in MLB in runs scored. Against that punch-less lineup, Morgan expects Sale’s recent swing-and-miss spike to continue and labels him a top cash-game anchor.

Greg Peterson played Under 8.5 because both starters look far better than their surface ERAs. He pointed out that Chris Sale has surrendered only five total runs in his last four outings and owns a 3.06 FIP with 12 K/9, while Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski’s ugly 6.16 ERA is betrayed by a 4.31 FIP and a three-start run of allowing three or fewer runs. Offensively, Pittsburgh drags the total down by scoring a league-worst 3.1 runs per game. Peterson’s model made the total 7.7, giving more than a three-quarter run edge to the Under.

Perrault paired Atlanta with San Diego in a plus-104 money-line parlay, explaining that he wants to keep fading Pittsburgh. The Pirates send rookie right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who owns a 5.54 ERA and .357 opponent average at PNC Park (8 ER in 13 IP). Atlanta rolls out Chris Sale; despite a 1-3 road record, Sale has given up only 12 earned runs in 26.1 road innings (4.10 ERA) and the Braves have won three of his last four starts (scores of 4-3, 8-2 and 2-1). Pittsburgh’s lone 3-2 win in the series snapped a long losing streak, and Perrault doubts they string two together against Atlanta’s lineup and veteran lefty.

Despite Sale’s dominance the tout pivoted to the under, citing anemic offenses on both sides. Pittsburgh has been held to three or fewer runs in six straight and Atlanta has scored four or fewer in eight of nine. Sale’s swing-and-miss form plus Emlizinsky’s slightly better home splits keep run expectancy low, and the under has cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings. With two bottom-tier NL lineups and a rubber-match playoff atmosphere, Cash Out Sports Picks projected another low total.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the lumber with Atlanta, pointing to Chris Sale’s renaissance—20 strikeouts and only two earned runs over his last 13.2 frames. Opposing starter Carmen Emlizinsky drags a 6.16 ERA, has yet to complete five innings in seven outings, and hands a tired Pirates bullpen more work. Pittsburgh’s lineup has scored three runs or fewer in nine of 11, while Atlanta’s deeper pen just won Saturday’s extra-inning game. Given the discrepancy on the mound and at the plate, the tout advised taking the Braves to win and cover the -1.5 run line.

Guy Boston recommended looking at the full-game Under 9 in Pirates-Braves. His angle is that Atlanta has been a bottom-tier offense against left-handed pitching all season, and they are even worse on the road. Pittsburgh counters with a southpaw (he noted the Trujini call-up) while Atlanta’s AJ Smith-Shoyer faces a Pirates lineup that will feature six right-handed bats, the split he struggles with most (career .325 wOBA allowed to RHB vs .267 to LHB). Despite that mismatch, Boston doubts the light-hitting Pirates can string together crooked numbers; they rank bottom-5 in hard-hit rate and have scored three runs or fewer in 15 of their last 23. Because both clubs have clear matchup disadvantages at the plate and the total is still sitting at 9, he leans Under rather than taking a side.

JD Bets recommended betting Under 8.5 runs in Braves-Pirates. He pointed out that Atlanta and Pittsburgh have been ice-cold at the plate, averaging only 3.3 and 1.9 runs respectively over their last 10 games— a combined 5.2. Yesterday’s 3-2 final reinforced the trend. While AJ Smith-Shawver and Andrew Heaney are volatile arms, the Pirates rank 11th in lowest strikeout rate but still can’t generate power, and Atlanta’s left-on-left matchup vs. Heaney has produced mediocre splits (.278/.308/.296 team line vs lefties on JD’s sheet). Weather in Pittsburgh shows no rain and only mild wind, eliminating a ball-flight boost. JD admitted either pitcher could implode, yet trusts the sustained offensive futility and is following his spreadsheet that projects well below the posted total.

Garofolo advised taking Under 9 runs at ‑108 for Braves–Pirates, quoting Dimers’ machine-learning projections that give the Under a 56.1% hit rate. That converts to a 4.2% edge over the sportsbook number, enough to clear the site’s publishing threshold for positive expected value. First pitch is 4:05 PM ET, and the edge figure comes directly from the model’s latest data refresh on Saturday morning.

Guy Boston recommended taking Ozzie Albies under 1.5 hits at ‑255 on DraftKings using the alternate line. His case was built on a 79 % season hit rate to the under (30 of 38 games) and an 8-for-10 stretch cashing the under this week. Albies has produced just 0.89 hits per game in 2025, and only five multi-hit efforts in his last 20 road appearances (75 % under rate). Against Pittsburgh specifically, he has stayed below two hits in five of seven meetings. The matchup worsens for Albies because he is a switch hitter who usually bats right-handed, and his numbers crater versus lefties: .216 average and 34.9 WRC+. Pirates southpaw Andrew Heaney is limiting right-handed hitters with drops in BAA and BABIP, making a multi-hit night unlikely.

Todd Zola said AJ Smith-Shawver is a strong Saturday streamer after flirting with a no-hitter his last time out (7.0 hitless innings, 8.0 IP total). Despite four walks and only five strikeouts in that outing, Zola likes the matchup against a Pittsburgh offense that ranks bottom-five in wOBA and ISO. PNC Park further suppresses power, and the Braves are solid road favorites, which boosts Smith-Shawver’s win equity in standard fantasy scoring.

Bettor Mark is laying –135 with Atlanta on the road in Pittsburgh. He expects the Braves to "show out" after yesterday’s loss, noting they historically mash left-handed pitching and will now face southpaw Andrew Heaney. Mark likes that highly-touted rookie AJ Smith-Shaver (whom he called a "young, hot arm") gets the start, projecting him to go deep and quiet the Pirates, whose recent managerial shake-up he views as a minimal bump. The zig-zag off the Pirates’ Friday win, the platoon edge versus a lefty, and Atlanta’s overall lineup quality form the core of his conviction.

Kenny G advised taking the Pirates at +120 against Atlanta. He is fading rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver after the 22-year-old threw a career-high eight innings in his last start, noting young arms often regress the next outing when asked to stretch out that far. Kenny also pointed out the Braves’ offense has been mediocre (19th in runs, 20th in batting average) and Atlanta’s bullpen has slipped from elite status a year ago to merely average. Conversely, Andrew Heaney has been hit hard by the Cubs and Padres but those are top-tier lineups; Kenny expects a bounce-back versus an Atlanta lineup he is “not scared of.” He concedes the Pirates’ pen (4.30 ERA) and offense are below average, yet sees value because Pittsburgh is 11-8 to the over at home, suggesting run support is possible, and Atlanta is just 6-13 on the road. Overall, the price plus the potential fatigue angle on Smith-Shawver makes the home dog playable.

Scott Reichel said the Braves’ moneyline is mis-priced at the mid-140s (he even spotted -138) against Pittsburgh. He trusts rookie Spencer Smith-Schauver after the right-hander gave up only one hit over eight shut-out innings to the Reds and has led Atlanta to three straight wins. Andrew Heaney’s recent form is the opposite: eight runs and three homers allowed over his last 8.1 innings and a 5.66 road ERA. Reichel added that the Pirates offense has struggled all season, making it unlikely they punish Smith-Schauver. With Atlanta finally climbing back toward .500 and the bullpen rested, he labeled anything under -150 as “too short” and a play on the Braves straight up.

Drew Martin backed Atlanta at -132, pointing out the Pirates have dropped seven straight and sit 12-26 with just five total runs in their last five games. He noted Braves rookie Smith-Shoyer spun eight scoreless one-hit innings in his previous outing, while Pittsburgh counters with Andrew Heaney, who has been rocked for eight earned over his last eight innings and owns an ugly 3-to-7 strikeout-to-walk line in that span. Martin added Atlanta brings the superior bullpen and lineup, making the low-130s price a bargain against a reeling opponent.

The same handicapper took the full-game UNDER citing multiple converging trends. Braves games have stayed under in 18 of 37 contests (plus three pushes) while the Pirates have cashed the under in 20 of 38. Atlanta scores a modest 4.03 runs per game overall and only 3.79 on the road; Pittsburgh is even worse at 3.11 (3.47 at home). Recent head-to-head meetings are 4-1 to the under and Atlanta individually is 8-2 to the under in its last ten. With Smith-Shawver facing an anemic Pirates lineup and the Braves offense merely average away from Truist, the tout projected something like 4-1 or 5-1 and advised playing the under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Atlanta on the money line, laying out a laundry list of edges. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of its last nine at PNC and owns one of the league’s coldest offenses – 28th in OPS, 29th in homers and dead-last in runs per game (3.11). Their scheduled starter Andrew Heaney looked great early (1.72 ERA through five starts) but has unraveled for 8 earned over 8.1 innings in his last two turns. Meanwhile rookie AJ Smith-Shawver is coming off a gem against Cincinnati and gives Atlanta much-needed stability. The Braves roll in with four wins in five games, and their recent form plus Pittsburgh’s free-fall led the tout to call Atlanta the clear side.

Eric Pathi said bettors should take the Pittsburgh Pirates at +125 in Game 2 against Atlanta. His angle is to "re-file" a team that just snapped a long skid when books still hang a plus-money number. Pittsburgh had lost seven straight before winning Friday as +126 dogs; Saturday they are +125. Pathi framed it as a low-risk, high-reward situation: worst case you split the two games and still profit 0.25 units, best case you sweep and bank 2.5 units. He referenced his 'rule of 10'—it is statistically rare for MLB clubs to win or lose 10 straight—so he expects the Pirates to remain competitive now that the streak is reset.

Greg Peterson played Under 8.5 because both starters have quietly limited damage despite modest strikeout numbers. Pirates left-hander Andrew Heaney sits at only 7.7 K/9—his worst whiff rate since 2015—yet the soft-contact profile has produced a 3.18 ERA and just 0.9 HR/9. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed three runs or fewer in all five outings and carries a 3.00 ERA into a meeting with a Pittsburgh lineup averaging an MLB-worst 3.1 runs per game. Peterson’s model made the total 8.3, giving him enough cushion to fire on the under.

Jay Croucher said the model’s strongest edge for Friday’s game at PNC Park is on the Under 9.0 runs. He pointed to a perfect storm of recent trends and matchup data: the Braves have cashed the Under in eight of their last ten contests while averaging just 3.4 runs in that span; Pittsburgh’s offense is ice-cold, riding a seven-game losing streak during which they have scored only 2.1 runs per game and collected just four hits in their most recent outing. Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds is mired in a 4-for-28 (.143) funk, further dragging the Pirates’ run production. Croucher added that both starters showed signs of competence their last time out—Bryce Elder limited the Dodgers to two earned over five frames and Bailey Falter surrendered just one earned over seven versus San Diego—suggesting neither club is likely to jump out to a crooked number early. With PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and winds projected to blow in, Croucher graded the Under a full run better than the market and labeled it the staff’s preferred wager.

Jay Croucher explained why the NBC Sports projection shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at home despite the Pirates’ ugly seven-game skid. The Braves have played in tight, low-scoring affairs all month—only two of their last ten games have been decided by more than one run—making it difficult to cover a run-line premium. Atlanta starter Bryce Elder owns a 5.06 ERA and has allowed a 43% hard-hit rate, giving the Pirates a path to scrape across enough offense to stay within striking distance. On the other side, left-hander Bailey Falter also carries a 5.06 ERA but is coming off his best outing of the season (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H vs. Padres) and now faces a Braves lineup that ranks bottom-10 against southpaws in wRC+. Croucher noted that if the game script follows his model’s median projection of 4.3–4.1 in Atlanta’s favor, grabbing the extra run and a half with the home dog is worth the juice, assigning it a medium-confidence grade.

Kenny G grabbed the Pirates at +126 as his Dog of the Day. He expects Atlanta to be flat after Thursday’s 11-inning marathon in Cincinnati and noted that Bryce Elder’s 5.06 ERA and a merely average 3.70 bullpen ERA leave the Braves vulnerable. Offensively Atlanta is just 20th in runs and 18th in batting average, so they have little margin for error if fatigue shows up. Pittsburgh counters with Bailey Falter, who tossed seven innings of two-hit, one-run ball versus San Diego last time out. Although the Pirates lineup has struggled (29th in runs, 27th in average), Kenny believes a managerial change could provide a spark and likes Falter to keep them in it long enough for the plus-money ticket to cash.

Lonte Smith preferred the full-game Under 8.5. He pointed out that Pittsburgh has produced three runs or fewer in eight of its last ten, batting .207 during that span and cashing the under in eight of those ten contests. Smith does not trust Atlanta’s offense on the road either (6-13 away record), and he noted Bryce Elder has surrendered just six earned runs across his last three outings while Bailey Falter is coming off a quality start versus San Diego. With two lineups slumping and weather not expected to help the ball travel, Lonte expects a 4-2 or 5-3 type final.

Scott Reichel said the only bet that makes sense is Atlanta -1.5 at +105. He argued the talent gap is huge: Pittsburgh owns an anemic .207 team average over the last ten games and has scored one run or fewer in four of the last five. Even with Bryce Elder’s shaky 5.06 ERA, Reichel expects him to look competent because the Pirates have just two legitimate bats (Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds) and Reynolds is hitting .219. He dismissed the idea of a “new-manager bump,” calling Derek Shelton’s dismissal a pure scapegoat move by an incompetent front office. With Pittsburgh riding a seven-game skid and ranking bottom-five in wRC+, Reichel believes Atlanta’s lineup should “just show up and smack this team.”

Eric Lindquist leaned toward betting Oneil Cruz to hit a home run Friday against Bryce Elder. Lindquist noted Elder’s 42.3 % hard-hit rate and .467 expected slugging percentage, numbers that have left the Braves’ right-hander vulnerable to loud contact. Cruz profiles ideally for right field at PNC Park, but Lindquist cautioned that Elder keeps the ball down (11.3-degree average launch angle), which slightly tempers the upside. He wants a price better than +470 before firing, yet still labeled Cruz the one Pirate with legitimate long-ball appeal in this matchup.

Drew Martin backed the Braves at –148 in Pittsburgh, calling the price short given the matchup. He noted the Pirates are 12-26 overall, riding a seven-game losing streak and have plated only five total runs in their last five contests. Bailey Falter brings a 5-plus ERA and a 1-3 record, while Atlanta counters with 25-year-old Bryce Elder, who has allowed just six earned runs and one homer over 17 innings across his last three starts, winning the past two. Martin added that the Braves own superior splits versus left-handed pitching and enjoy a "pretty sizable bullpen edge," making Atlanta the sharper side despite being on the road.

Eric Pathi advised betting the Pittsburgh Pirates at +126 against the Braves on 5/9, leaning on his "home underdog losing-streak" system. Pittsburgh has dropped seven straight but had Thursday off to reset before opening the series at PNC Park. Pathi's Rule of 10 says it is difficult for a club to extend a skid to ten games; game eight is the first spot to fade the streak. Season-to-date numbers show all underdogs winning 39.5%, while home dogs cash 47.1%, giving nearly an eight-point edge. Because the market over-penalizes teams mired in long skids, Pathi ignores pitching matchups and ERA here, focusing solely on the plus-money value. He labeled the Pirates a complementary play worth a sprinkle on the moneyline.

He recommended the full-game UNDER, pointing to four unders in the last five meetings and just 16 total runs in their previous three-game series. Pittsburgh has hit .189 with a .280 slugging percentage versus Braves pitching across five matchups and failed to score more than one run in three of the last four. Atlanta has gone under in four straight and has not topped four runs in seven games. Elder’s past success against Pittsburgh plus both teams’ current offensive funks indicate a low-scoring night.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Braves on the money line. He cited Pittsburgh’s seven-game losing streak, back-to-back series sweeps, and a lineup that owns one of the league’s worst slugging percentages versus right-handed pitching. Bryce Elder, while not overpowering, routinely gives Atlanta five to six solid innings and previously limited the Pirates to two runs over seven frames. Bailey Falter’s homer issues (wind blowing out) and Pittsburgh’s ice-cold offense make it hard to trust the Bucs, even with Atlanta’s bullpen a bit taxed after an 11-inning game. The pick relies on Atlanta’s upward trend and Pittsburgh’s tailspin.

Chris Welsh remained bullish on Paul Skenes for NL Cy Young at roughly +275 even after a shaky stretch shaved his K-rate from 33% to 24%. Skenes still sports a 2.77 ERA and, per Welsh, owns a better expected ERA than his actual mark—evidence the underlying skills are intact. Seven of his 15 earned runs have come in two starts versus the Cardinals, a matchup Welsh chalks up to a "teams just own certain pitchers" quirk rather than a real talent concern. With wins likely to pile up once that bad luck normalizes, Welsh believes Skenes is "still the most electric pitcher in baseball" and would be priced as a heavy odds-on favorite if the record read 5-1 with a 10 K/9. He calls the current near 3-1 number a gift for bettors willing to ride out a brief slump.

The algorithm fired on Atlanta -146 and the Under 9 at PNC Park, pointing to two converging trends: Pittsburgh’s seven-game losing streak that has dropped the Bucs to 12-26, and a Braves pitching staff that has surrendered only 3.1 runs per contest over its last eight. Simulations give Atlanta a 61% chance to win and project 7.4 total runs. With Pittsburgh’s offense bottom-five in OPS (.653) and the park suppressing homers by 12% versus league average, the computer sees value backing the road favorite and a low-run script.

Caleb Wilfinger recommended Atlanta on the moneyline at -145 (playable to -155) because the matchup heavily favors the Braves. Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter owns a 5.06 ERA and just a 19.9% whiff rate and has been homer-prone, setting up the meat of Atlanta’s order for a bounce-back night. On the other side, the Pirate offense carries MLB’s second-worst slugging percentage against right-handed pitching and now faces Bryce Elder, who, while unspectacular, limits damage well enough when given run support. Wilfinger noted that ‘fading the Pirates has been profitable all season’ and expects the superior roster to open the series with a win.