JD Bets recommended taking the Minnesota Twins moneyline (-148) for a third straight day, calling it ‘a Minnesota play all the way.’ His rationale: Baltimore’s bats are stuck in a pronounced down-cycle, ranking near the bottom of every offensive metric over the last week, while Minnesota sits ‘above average’ at the plate. On the mound, Bailey Ober has worked six innings in five consecutive outings and faces an Orioles lineup striking out 29% of the time during this skid. Opposite him, Dean Kremer’s 5.25 ERA in 2025 (with 5, 6, and 5-run blow-ups against non-Royals competition) suggests he is vulnerable again. With Minnesota 2-0 in the series and riding the hotter lineup, JD expects the Twins to complete the sweep.

JD Bets said Bailey Ober’s outs-recorded prop is worth backing because everything lines up for him to reach six full innings. Ober has completed at least 6.0 innings in five straight starts and owns a 2.04 ERA over that span. Baltimore’s offense is bottom-five in the league during its current slump, ranking 29th in strikeout rate (9.8 K/9) while posting just 3.0 runs per game this week. JD noted that the Orioles are ‘swinging and missing at everything’ and have notched only one multi-run inning in the last two games. With Dean Kremer struggling (5+ earned runs in three of his last five non-Royals starts), JD expects Minnesota to control the game flow and let Ober work deep. The outs line opened at 17.5 with heavy juice (–194), but JD still likes the over, projecting 18–20 outs so long as the Orioles do not unexpectedly tee off.

Bettor Mark labeled the Twins his favorite wager of the entire slate. He pointed out that Baltimore has been 'absolute garbage' on the road while Bailey Ober is quietly 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA. With Dean Kremer struggling to miss bats, Mark expects Minnesota to be in front early and stay there. His preferred angle is DraftKings’ "Will the home team bat in the bottom of the 9th? – No" at –110, because it captures a Twins win without laying the full –144 moneyline. For bettors who want more juice he’s comfortable with the standard run line at +150, but the no-bottom-9th prop is how he’s personally attacking it.

Brad Francis laid the-1.5 with Minnesota, noting the Twins have covered the run line in seven straight games that follow a win. He said Baltimore has reverted to “vintage Orioles” form, calling them a bad club after two good seasons. With plus-money available at +136, Francis believes backing a hot, streak-covering Twins team against a struggling opponent is the sharp side.

Data Skrive projected a 4-3 final and advised betting Under 8 runs. The write-up cites Minnesota’s stingy staff (2.69 ERA last 10) and Baltimore’s ice-cold offense (2.6 runs per game, 0.201 team average in that stretch). Even with the Twins swinging it better (4.6 runs per game, 11 HR in the same window), the combined recent scoring pace of 7.2 runs suggests value on the Under. Target Field has suppressed runs by 5% relative to league average so far in 2025, and both bullpens enter rested after only 6.0 and 5.1 innings used the previous two days, respectively. With Minnesota cashing the Under in seven of its last 10 totals and rain-induced 10-mph winds blowing straight in from left, the article leans strongly toward an Under ticket at -111.

Data Skrive recommended backing the Twins straight up at -154, projecting a 4-3 Minnesota victory. Their model gives the Twins a 60% win probability, noting Minnesota is 7-3 this year when laying at least -154 and 13-12 overall as a favorite (52%). Recent form supports the play: the Twins are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 2.69 team ERA, 9.6 K/9 and a +25 run-differential in that span, while Baltimore has stumbled to a 3-7 record, scoring just 2.6 runs per game and posting a 6.17 ERA. The Orioles have lost all three games in which they were priced +130 or longer. With Dean Kremer (5.54 ERA) opposite a surging Minnesota lineup led by red-hot Byron Buxton (.349, 3 HR last 10) and a bullpen that ranks top-10 in FIP, the piece frames the Twins moneyline as the safest way to attack Thursday’s matinee.

For totals players Kingpin leaned Under 8. Ryan has not surrendered more than one earned run in any road outing, and Baltimore averages just 3.3 runs away from Camden Yards. Dean Kremer is volatile but did post a quality start his last trip and faces a Minnesota lineup ranking 21st in wRC+. With a getaway-day lineup risk for both clubs, Kingpin expects a 4-2 or 5-2 type finish.

Kingpin laid the -1.5 run line with Minnesota at roughly +130. Joe Ryan’s 2.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP give the Twins a massive mound edge over Dean Kremer’s 5.73 ERA and .281 opponent average. Baltimore’s offense sits bottom-five in runs and strikes out a ton, while Minnesota’s bats get to attack an Orioles bullpen carrying a 4.59 ERA. With Ryan rarely giving up crooked numbers, Kingpin projected a comfortable two-plus-run victory.

Kingpin recommended betting Joe Ryan over 6.5 strikeouts. Ryan owns a 0.90 WHIP and a 47:5 K:BB through 40⅔ innings (better than 11 K/9). He now faces an Orioles lineup logging 299 strikeouts in 34 games (nearly 9 per game) while hitting just .223 and scoring 3.8 runs a night. Baltimore’s free-swinging profile plus Ryan’s 30% strikeout rate make seven punch-outs a realistic baseline, especially with Target Field weather projected in the low-60s and light wind in. Kingpin noted Ryan has not allowed more than one earned run in any road start this year, which secures the leash needed to work deep enough for the prop to cash.

Data Skrive relayed that numberFire’s simulations make Minnesota a 55.5% favorite with Bailey Ober on the mound versus Dean Kremer. The Twins are listed at -144 on FanDuel, an implied probability of roughly 59%, so the play is thin, but the model still prefers the home side. Ober owns a 3.04 ERA through five starts, while Baltimore’s bats have sputtered to just 3.8 runs per game on the road. With the Orioles sitting 13-22 and the Twins trending up after winning four of their last six, the tout leaned to Minnesota on the moneyline.

Bryan Zarpentine said Dean Kremer is a strong target for the Over 2.5 Earned Runs prop in Thursday’s matinee at Target Field. Kremer owns a 5.73 ERA overall and an ugly 9.19 ERA in three day starts. He has been shelled for at least five runs in four of six outings this season, with last week’s seven scoreless frames against Kansas City labeled an outlier. With Minnesota riding a four-game winning streak and swinging the bats well, Zarpentine expects the inconsistent right-hander to regress to his usual form and surrender at least three earned runs.

Eric Lindquist played the Orioles-Twins under 8.5 runs at –125, citing several converging factors. Joe Ryan’s 31.1% K-rate and elite four-seam/change combo should play up with 15-mph wind blowing straight in from center at Target Field, dampening Baltimore’s left-handed pop (Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday). On the other side, Dean Kremer is not flashy (18% K-rate, 5.21 xERA), but Lindquist saw encouraging pitch-mix tweaks in his seven-inning, two-run outing against Kansas City and expects the spacious outfield and same inbound wind to hide his fly-ball issues. He also rated both bullpens top-5 in his preseason model and projects continued improvement, giving him confidence the game stays at seven runs or fewer. He would still take under 8 at even money if 8.5 disappears.

Kenny G advised laying the -160 money-line with Minnesota, pointing to a long list of matchup edges. Baltimore limp into the finale on a four-game skid, own a 5-13 road record, and send the unreliable Dean Kremer (3-4, 5.73 ERA) plus the 26th-ranked bullpen (5.19 ERA). Offensively the O’s have cratered to 23rd in runs, 19th in slugging and a .223 team average, scoring just 2-1-6-0 runs their last four. Meanwhile the Twins have won four straight, are 11-6 at home, and hand the ball to Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.72 ERA) who has allowed exactly one earned run in four of his last five starts. Their pen owns a sturdy 3.52 ERA and the lineup has perked up with 5-9-5-4 runs in that same stretch, Byron Buxton pacing them with 9 HR and 25 RBI. Given the massive gap in current form, starting pitching, bullpen reliability, and home/road splits, Kenny labeled the Twins a bettable favorite and said the play is very likely to land in his pinned card.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game under, noting both clubs struggle to score (Minnesota 18th, Baltimore 23rd in runs). The under has cashed in 10 of the Orioles’ last 13 and seven of the Twins’ last 10. Joe Ryan’s 2.92 ERA/0.90 WHIP and 47-5 strikeout-to-walk profile make life difficult on Baltimore’s punch-less lineup, while Dean Kremer is capable of at least a league-average outing after blanking Kansas City for seven innings last time out. With both teams trending toward low totals against American League foes, he expects another quiet scoreboard.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline against Baltimore. He pointed out that the Orioles have lost 11 of their last 15 overall and just one of their last nine on the road while battling an injury-ravaged pitching staff (12 hurlers on the IL, league-worst ERA and opponent batting average, second-worst WHIP). Dean Kremer’s road numbers are brutal—8.17 ERA and a .330 batting average allowed in 25.1 road innings—and he has already surrendered 24 earned runs in 37.2 total innings. Minnesota, meanwhile, has won four straight and eight of nine at Target Field. Starter Joe Ryan owns a 2.92 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and has held foes to one run or fewer in five of seven turns, including 19 strikeouts and only one run allowed over his last 13 innings. With the Twins trending up and Baltimore reeling, the tout labeled Minnesota the clear side play.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Joe Ryan’s strikeout prop as a spot to attack. Baltimore owns the third-highest K-rate against right-handers over the last three weeks (25.6 %). Ryan has punched out 47 batters in 40 innings and historically flourishes at Target Field, posting a 37.9 % strikeout rate at home versus 23.9 % on the road. He also carries a 37 % K-rate specifically against right-handed hitters, which makes up the heart of the Orioles lineup. The tout projected 7–9 strikeouts and recommended the over on any line set at 6.5 or lower for betting or DFS purposes.

Dylan Rockford agreed that the only bet is Minnesota -1.5, pointing to concrete numbers. The Twins are batting .260 and averaging 4.8 runs per game at home, while Joe Ryan has been "really solid" at Target Field. On the flip side Dean Kremer is “atrocious on the road,” and the Orioles as a whole can’t hit when they travel. Rockford priced the run line at +130 and jumped on it, convinced Baltimore’s weak bullpen and anemic lineup leave little chance they keep it close.

Scott Reichel said bettors should fire on Minnesota -1.5 because the matchup is one–way traffic. Joe Ryan has looked “a lot better than Kramer” all season while the Orioles staff, bullpen included, is running on fumes after using Morton on Wednesday. Baltimore has been giving up runs in bunches during what Reichel called a brutal overall stretch, and the club “really, really stinks at baseball” on the road. Meanwhile the Twins have been “quietly pretty good,” winning consistently at Target Field. Reichel expects Ryan to work deep, Baltimore’s over-used pen to crack, and Minnesota’s offense to stretch the margin past a run.

Boston still prefers Minnesota at roughly –130 even though the matchup is less lopsided than yesterday. Simeon Woods Richardson owns a 1.89 ERA at Target Field but has shown vulnerability to lefties, and Baltimore can roll out four of them. Offsetting that, Charlie Morton’s 5.08 ERA and 10.7% walk rate keep him on Boston’s fade list, especially versus a Twins lineup that is almost exclusively right-handed yet has scored 4, 5 and 9 runs the last three games. Because both pitchers carry specific platoon concerns, Boston also leans to the full-game OVER 8.5, expecting each offense to cash in on its preferred split. His model spits out 5-4 Minnesota roughly 55% of the time, which gives value on the money line and a correlated over.

JD Bets jumped on the Minnesota Twins moneyline (–120 range) the moment he saw Charlie Morton penciled in for Baltimore. He labeled Morton “dog water,” citing a 5.00+ ERA and an average of five earned runs allowed in his last four starts. Minnesota’s offense grades eighth-best on JD’s model and has climbed into the top-10 in ISO over the past week, while Baltimore’s lineup continues to flounder near league-average in every run-scoring metric. On the mound, Simeon Woods Richardson has quietly added strikeout juice (23.4% K-rate) to his already elite 54% ground-ball profile, giving JD confidence the rookie can keep the Orioles in check. With form, matchup, and pitching edge all pointing one way, he called Twins ML “too good to overthink.”

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Twins money-line, explaining that Baltimore has cratered—losing 10 of its last 13—and will send 41-year-old Dean Morden, who owns a 9.76 ERA (40 H, 30 ER, 21 BB in 27.2 IP). Minnesota enters on a three-game winning streak and hands the ball to Simeon Woods Richardson, who sports a 1.74 ERA and .225 BAA over 10.1 Target Field frames. The tout stressed that with Morden walking almost as many hitters as he strikes out (21 BB vs 26 K) and the Orioles being blown out repeatedly, the Twins’ modest offense should be enough. He sees value because oddsmakers are still pricing Minnesota like the streaky club from April, not the improving side that has started 13-8 since.

Jesse Schule laid –126 with Minnesota, calling Baltimore a fade until bookmakers stop over-pricing last year’s 20-games-over-.500 aura. Charlie Morton is 0-6 with a 9.76 ERA, 2.20 WHIP and has averaged under two innings in his last four outings—Schule thinks his MLB days are numbered. Simeon Woods Richardson counters with a 2-0 record and 1.74 ERA in his only two Target Field starts, and Minnesota’s bullpen (3.64 ERA, 12th) is far better than Baltimore’s 28th-ranked relief corps (5.21 ERA). Light winds blowing in should further depress Orioles’ already shaky power. Schule expects another "smackdown" similar to yesterday’s rout and recommends backing the Twins on the moneyline.

Boston also played Kody Clemens UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money. Although Charlie Morton has struggled overall, he is still holding left-handed hitters to a .223 average and leans on a curveball Clemens has produced a –5 run value against in limited 2025 action. Clemens owns just a .281 OBP versus righties and is batting eighth or ninth most nights, reducing his plate-appearance ceiling. Boston said he is comfortable fading the journeyman because even if Morton exits early, Baltimore’s bullpen ranks top-10 in xFIP the last 14 days, further capping Clemens’ counting-stat upside.

Boston suggested betting Heston Kjerstad UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –120 if the rookie cracks the lineup. Woods Richardson has limited left-handed bats to a .286 wOBA at home thanks to a 34% change-up usage that grades as Kjerstad’s worst-rated pitch type (-4 run value in a small sample). The prospect has started only two of Baltimore’s last five games and owns a sub-.300 OBP against righties, so Boston doubts he gets the four plate appearances normally needed to threaten the over. With Minnesota’s bullpen rested after Joe Ryan’s seven-inning effort Tuesday, Boston expects Kjerstad to see just one favorable matchup all night, making the under the sharper play.

Shubham Soni pegged Byron Buxton at +350 to homer for a third straight game. Buxton sits at .267 with eight bombs, 22 RBI, and 26 runs, riding consecutive homer nights into Target Field. Opposing him is an unrecognizable Charlie Morton, saddled with a 0-6 record, 9.76 ERA, and seven home runs surrendered across eight starts. Morton’s four-seam velocity dip and curveball command issues have driven a 46% hard-contact rate. Soni believes Buxton’s elite bat speed and current locked-in approach make this one of the slate’s strongest plus-odds plays.

Eric Lindquist circled Ryan O'Hearn’s home-run prop as a one-swing bet worth firing on Wednesday. Lindquist noted that Twins rookie Simeon Woods Richardson owns one of the highest fly-ball rates on the slate and is already giving up plenty of hard contact. Even though the Baltimore lineup has been quiet recently, Woods Richardson’s profile (above-average barrel rate, limited ground-ball ability) is exactly what wakes them up, and Camden Yards should play neutrally with no damaging wind. O’Hearn brings a 46% hard-hit rate and a top-25 average exit velocity against right-handers since last season, giving him multiple paths to leave the yard. Lindquist projected roughly a 22-23% HR probability—good value at any price longer than +425.

Stephen advised fading Simeon Woods Richardson in practically any betting or DFS context. The Minnesota right-hander sits in just the 3rd percentile for barrel rate allowed and the 10th percentile for hard-hit rate. In plain English, hitters are squaring him up at an alarming clip. Given those underlying metrics, Just A Bet Outside expects the Orioles’ lineup to generate plenty of loud contact and considers opposing hitter props or Baltimore run-scoring markets viable angles.

Chris Welsh said Royce Lewis remains a viable every-week starter in 12-team formats even though he is nearly impossible to rank with confidence. Welsh noted that the overall depth at third base "really stinks right now"—Jake Burger just got demoted and replacement-level options are scarce—so he has Lewis slotted in the 12-to-13 range at the position. The injury history and a possible batting-average dip keep Lewis from cracking the upper tier, but given his power/speed upside and thin waiver-wire alternatives, Welsh advised managers to plug him in and hope the health holds.

Guy Boston backed the Twins money-line and likes their team-total over because Cade Povich can’t solve right-handed bats. Righties have tagged the rookie for a .292 AVG and .516 SLG, and Minnesota projects six right-handers who all carry a 110+ wRC+ versus lefties in 2025. Pablo Lopez, meanwhile, remains the picture of consistency—28.6 % K-rate, 5.4 % walk rate—and uses a four-seam/slider combo Baltimore grades bottom-10 against (-9.7 runs/100 on heaters, ‑6.4 on sliders this month). Lopez owns a 34 % chase rate on that slider, something the free-swinging O’s lineup (30 % O-Swing) feeds. Even if you fear Lopez regression, Boston noted his 2.91 xERA against this roster and suggested isolating Minnesota’s TT 4.5 or better. Official stance: Twins ML to –140 and Twins team-total over.

Guy Boston backed the Twins money-line and likes their team-total over because Cade Povich can’t solve right-handed bats. Righties have tagged the rookie for a .292 AVG and .516 SLG, and Minnesota projects six right-handers who all carry a 110+ wRC+ versus lefties in 2025. Pablo Lopez, meanwhile, remains the picture of consistency—28.6 % K-rate, 5.4 % walk rate—and uses a four-seam/slider combo Baltimore grades bottom-10 against (-9.7 runs/100 on heaters, ‑6.4 on sliders this month). Lopez owns a 34 % chase rate on that slider, something the free-swinging O’s lineup (30 % O-Swing) feeds. Even if you fear Lopez regression, Boston noted his 2.91 xERA against this roster and suggested isolating Minnesota’s TT 4.5 or better. Official stance: Twins ML to –140 and Twins team-total over.

Kenny G recommended laying the –160 with Minnesota despite the chunky price. His conviction comes from Pablo Lopez carrying a 2.25 ERA and having not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five outings. Minnesota’s pen has been "serviceable" while the bats should perk up with Royce Lewis and Willi Castro activated. The Twins are 9-6 at Target Field and an MLB-best 20-12-3 to the under, underscoring how well their pitching has kept them in games. Baltimore counters with rookie Cade Povich and what Kenny labeled a "terrible" bullpen; the O’s are just 5-11 on the road and only a .500 team to totals. Kenny briefly considered Under 8.5 but ultimately trusts Lopez and the healthier lineup more than he fears the juice, calling Twins –160 a reasonable bet.

Eric Lindquist advised sprinking a quarter-unit on Ryan Jeffers to homer at +400 or better (anything down to +380 still +EV) versus Baltimore call-up Cade Povich. Jeffers owns a 49.3% hard-hit rate and a 16.9° average launch angle—two degrees higher than Byron Buxton’s—but strikes out just 16.7%, exactly half of Buxton’s rate. Povich brings almost no strikeout equity and has struggled to keep the ball down in Triple-A, making Target Field’s short left-center a real threat. Jeffers has been elevated to the two-hole against southpaws, giving him an extra plate appearance and guaranteed first-inning exposure. Lindquist expects markets to underrate him because Buxton’s shorter odds soak up attention, calling Jeffers a prime GPP one-off and ladder prop candidate.

It's The Final Round pointed to Austin Hays as a value hitter against Miles Mikolas. Hays is 6-for-16 (.375) lifetime versus the veteran right-hander and has collected a hit in 13 of his last 14 games. The tout expects the combination of strong BvP numbers and current form to translate into another successful night for Hays, recommending over 0.5 hit or 1.5 total bases wagers.