Despite middling strikeout upside, Razzle believes Tanner Bibee belongs in player pools. The Guardians–Blue Jays total is just 8, second-lowest on the slate, and Toronto is only –112 favorites. Bibee’s last two starts looked sharper, and Razzle expects ‘clean innings’ rather than gaudy Ks. If Bibee repeats his 24.8 DK points from Minnesota with a path to the win bonus, he becomes a solid mid-range option on a slate lacking sure things after Crochet.

Chris Ruffolo targeted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +500 to leave the yard. Tanner Bybee has the fourth-highest HR/9 among 20-inning qualifiers (2.5) and faces a hitter who is 3-for-6 with a homer off him already. Guerrero tops Toronto with a 16.2% barrel rate and has four homers despite a slow start, so Ruffolo sees a prime buy-low opportunity against Bybee’s gopher-ball tendencies.

Guy Boston recommended under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for Ernie Clement. Clement owns a .144 AVG and astonishing –20 WRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season. Against fastballs (Bibee’s primary pitch) his wOBA drops to .187; against cutters (Bibee’s No. 2 pitch) his strikeout rate spikes to 33% with a .150 wOBA. Overall season wOBA is just .240. Boston notes Bibee’s splits are better versus lefties but still serviceable versus righties (.273 AVG), and expects the game script to be low-scoring with Clement likely limited to two or three plate appearances before the fifth inning ends. All told, the median projection falls well below 1.5 counting stats, making the under a strong plus-EV prop.

Dana Lane said to back the Blue Jays at -118 on Sunday because he trusts Bowden Francis’ recent uptick in form more than Tanner Bibee’s. Lane noted that Francis has worked into the sixth inning in three straight starts and owns a 3.18 ERA over that span, while still striking out nearly a batter per frame. Both pitchers have been stung by the long ball—nine homers apiece over their last five outings—but Lane pointed out Bibee’s overall 5.27 ERA in those five starts compared to Francis’ sharper recent run. He added that opponents are batting .273 against Cleveland on the road and the Guardians are just 1-1 in this series despite winning four of their last five overall. With Toronto laying only –118 and an opening total of 8 (under –112), Lane viewed the Jays as the superior value play to close the series.

Chris Ruffolo said Kyle Manzardo is worth a plus-360 home-run wager because Bowden Francis owns the worst long-ball profile in MLB (3.2 HR/9, 11 bombs already, 14% barrel rate). Manzardo leads Cleveland with a 15.3% barrel rate, so Ruffolo expects the rookie’s power to play immediately against a pitcher giving up hard contact at a league-high clip.

At only $2,300, Daniel Schneemann made Morgan’s cut after blasting two homers (one a grand slam) on Saturday. The 27-year-old owns an .846 Triple-A OPS and now meets Bowden Francis, who sports a 7.29 FIP and 1.73 HR/9 in the majors. Morgan argued that even a Quad-A bat can excel when the opposing pitcher is this shaky.

Kenny G recommended Cleveland at +100, arguing Tanner Bibee’s recent form and Toronto’s pitching woes tilt the matchup. Bibee limited Minnesota to one run over seven frames in his last start and faces a Blue Jays lineup that’s 25th in runs and averaging just 4.2 per game despite a ‘hot’ five-game stretch. Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, owner of a 5.28 ERA who has been tagged for 19 hits and 9 earned across his last two outings (Houston, Boston). Kenny also flagged the Jays’ 3.98 bullpen ERA and their 19-13-1 record to the under at Rogers Centre as evidence that support will be thin once Francis exits. While Cleveland’s offense is only 21st in runs, he trusts their contact-heavy approach and marginally better 3.80 pen to grind out a road win, making the Guardians a worthwhile plus-money play.

The same segment recommended taking the full-game over, noting both starters are hittable. Tanner Bibee owns a 7.63 road ERA (.271 BAA) and recently gave up three homers and six earned to Baltimore, while Francis’ home ERA sits at 6.00 with a .263 BAA. Cleveland’s staff ERA ranks 21st (4.31), and Toronto has hit the over in two of its last three. With both pitchers above a 4.30 ERA and the Guardians owning an 80% HR rate versus righties, Cash Out Sports expects a slugfest.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Guardians on the money line, pointing to a pronounced pitching edge. Bowden Francis was shelled for five home runs in just three innings by Boston his last time out and carries a 5.28 ERA with 30 hits and 16 earned runs surrendered over 24.2 innings. Cleveland’s lineup has punished right-handers – 29 of its 36 homers (80%+) have come off righties – and Steven Kwan continues to post elite on-base numbers while Bo Naylor’s power is emerging (five HR). Toronto has dropped nine of its last 13 games, so momentum and matchup both favor Cleveland.

Kenny G called the over-8 total in Guardians-Blue Jays ‘super live’. His rationale: both starters are leaking oil. Cleveland rookie Gavin Williams sports a 5.14 ERA, has given up four homers across his last three outings, and was blasted for four earned in just two innings versus Minnesota. Kevin Gausman has been nearly as shaky—4.50 ERA overall, rocked by the Yankees in his last start and by Houston the time before. Neither bullpen offers much cover (Guardians 3.88 ERA, Jays only marginally better). Toronto’s lineup is finally heating up, scoring 5-4-7 runs the past three games behind George Springer and a resurgent Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while Kenny doubts Cleveland’s middling pen can hold leads without Jose Ramirez in the lineup. With two volatile arms and lineups capable of spurts, he expects both teams to reach at least four runs apiece.

While calling the side ‘coin-flippy,’ Kenny G still leaned to Toronto at -145 because Cleveland will likely be without Jose Ramirez and must rely on Gavin Williams, who has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) over his last 13 innings. Kenny expects the Blue Jays’ offense—averaging 5.3 runs during their three-game win streak—to keep building momentum, pointing to Guerrero’s gradual power uptick and George Springer’s table-setting at the top. Cleveland’s bats rank 21st in runs, and their bullpen has fallen back to league average (3.88 ERA) after being elite last year. With Kevin Gausman still capable of missing bats (28% K-rate) and the Jays 10-6 at home, Kenny thinks Toronto ekes out a 5-3 or 6-4 type victory.

Dylan Rockford made Toronto a –140 favorite and was happy to take them at –145, leaning on Kevin Gausman’s dominant Rogers Centre splits (2–0, 3.00 ERA, .209 BAA). He contrasted that with Gavin Williams’ ugly 5.52 road ERA (9 runs in 14 IP) and nearly 1-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Rockford added that the Jays are trending upward after taking 2 of 3 from Boston, while Cleveland’s offense is notoriously fickle away from Progressive Field. With Toronto’s bullpen well-rested and Gausman historically elite at home, he labeled the current moneyline playable up to –150.

Reichel played the game over 8 runs, arguing that recent form makes the number a discount inside run-friendly Rogers Centre. Kevin Gausman has unraveled his last two outings (10 earned in 8.2 IP after tumbling down clubhouse stairs) while Gavin Williams owns a 5.14 ERA and has allowed four-plus runs in two of his past three. With the roof closed, weather is a non-factor, and both offenses should benefit. Reichel said eight would be more appropriate if either pitcher were sharp; with both scuffling, he projected 9.2 runs and grabbed the over at standard juice.

Kelly Kirby threw cold water on the Daulton Varsho hype, reminding listeners that last season’s 136-game sample produced just a .214 batting average despite 18 homers and 10 steals. Kirby warned that Varsho no longer carries catcher eligibility—a big part of his original fantasy appeal—so managers are absorbing that average drain at an outfield spot they could otherwise use for upside. While highlight-reel defense keeps him in Toronto’s lineup, Kirby believes the stick remains deeply flawed and could "tank your batting average into oblivion" in roto or points leagues that penalize outs. She’s fine rostering him in AL-only or 15-team formats for cheap power, but urged caution in shallower season-long leagues where the replacement-level outfielder won’t torpedo ratios.

Toronto is a -145 favorite in a projected 5-4 win. Kevin Gausman’s 4.50 ERA still grades better than Gavin Williams’ 5.14, and the Guardians bullpen has been stretched thin. The model also leans over 8 because both starters have mid-4 ERAs and each lineup sits top-10 in hard-hit rate.

B Wade advised taking Ramon Laureano UNDER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Laureano has exceeded this line only 4 times in 19 games (21%). The matchup is brutal: Royals left-hander Kris Bubic owns a stingy 2.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while Laureano is 3-for-24 (.125) against southpaws. Wade noted the even-money price despite an 80% miss rate, calling it an automatic fade until Laureano shows life versus left-handed pitching.

B Wade took Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Vladdy has hit this prop in four straight, 63% of games overall, and a scorching 71% at home, including six consecutive at Rogers Centre (8 of last 9). Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, and Guerrero is 1-for-3 lifetime off him. Wade expects the struggling right-hander to provide prime RBI chances for Toronto’s heart-of-the-order anchor.

B Wade locked in Kevin Gausman OVER 17.5 outs (6.0 innings). Gausman has reached the 6th in 4 of 6 starts this year and both home outings. Stretching back, he’s completed at least six frames in eight of his last nine appearances at Rogers Centre, averaging 19.5 outs. The opponent is a mediocre Guardians lineup that lacks punch, making Wade confident that ‘Gaus’ can again pitch deep and cash this outs prop.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks expects fireworks and played the OVER. Gausman (1-3, 4.82 ERA) has lost the mojo on his splitter, while Williams sports a bloated 5.48 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Neither bullpen is elite (Cleveland 15th, Toronto 16th in ERA), and two of the last four head-to-heads have already cleared the posted number. With Toronto’s bats perking up and both starters scuffling through April, the tout anticipates scoring to continue once the pens take over.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Cleveland, noting the Guardians’ superior situational hitting (0.703 OPS w/ RISP vs Toronto’s 0.629) and larger home-run advantage (34 to 21). Gavin Williams shut down Toronto in his lone prior start and faces a lineup that ranks 29th in long balls. Kevin Gausman carries a 4.82 ERA and has lacked feel for his trademark splitter, while Cleveland has taken the last three meetings. With both clubs entering on small win streaks, the tout trusts the Guardians’ contact-heavy offense and recent form to prevail north of the border.

Marcus likes the Blue Jays as a cost-effective secondary stack. Gavin Williams has surrendered at least one homer and eight baserunners in four of his last five starts, and Toronto hitters—Bo Bichette ($4,400), Vladimir Guerrero ($5,200), Anthony Santander ($4,200)—are all priced down after a sluggish April. The matchup plus salary relief open salary paths to spend up on pitching or a second premium stack.

Razzle likes Chris Bassitt as a mid-range option, pointing to his +125 win odds (only slightly behind Fried) and a 5.5 K prop that meets his cutoff for meaningful upside. Bassitt has been elite at Rogers Centre in 2025—one run allowed with 17 strikeouts across two home starts—and Razzle expects that split to hold even after noting Bassitt’s BABIP luck. Cleveland avoids strikeouts generally, limiting ceiling, but a seven-inning leash and strong win equity against a weak power lineup keep Bassitt firmly in the pool for large-field GPPs.

For his "Beast of the Night" Beermakersfan chose Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who has already popped two homers in his last three games and owns a .397 wOBA and .238 ISO versus southpaws since the start of 2024. Left-hander Logan Allen may look improved but the underlying numbers disagree: 46 % hard-hit allowed this season and last year’s splits of .407 wOBA / .268 ISO to right-handed hitters. Beer bet on those metrics regressing toward 2023 levels, forecasting a deep shot from Vlad and recommending him as the premier spend-up bat on the slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Blue Jays on the money line because Chris Bassitt owns a 2.62 ERA and 39 strikeouts through six starts, whereas Cleveland rookie Logan Allen has only 18 punch-outs and was torched for seven earned runs his last time out. Toronto’s bats are heating up—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander have recently flashed power—and the club has gone over the total in three of its past four contests. The tout doesn’t trust a Guardians offense that ranks near the bottom of the AL in OPS and expects Bassitt, who struck out 10 Braves and blanked the Mets earlier this year, to out-duel Allen and give the Jays the series opener.

The tout played the full-game over because neither starter enters in form. Bassitt has surrendered four runs in back-to-back outings to Houston and New York, and at 36 he isn’t expected to cruise. Logan Allen owns an ugly 18:13 K:BB ratio and a fresh seven-run blow-up, while Toronto has cashed three of its last four overs. Given shaky command on both sides and an improving Blue Jays lineup, Cash Out Sports Picks projects this total to clear comfortably.

Peterson bet Under 8.5 because Chris Bassitt owns a 2.62 ERA, 2.35 FIP and 10.2 K/9 while surrendering only two long balls in six starts. Logan Allen’s identical 4.21 ERA/FIP is supported by a massive cut in HR rate (0.7 HR/9 this season vs 2.0 last year). With both pitchers stretched past 90 pitches regularly and Toronto’s offense ranking 19th in OPS, Peterson’s model spitting out 7.9 made the Under playable.

Kenny G leaned toward Toronto at –145 despite the price. He expects Chris Bassett (2.62 ERA) to rebound after a rough Yankee outing, noting his overall command and strong early-season form. Opposing starter Logan Allen owns a 4.21 ERA that ballooned when Boston tattooed him for seven runs in 4⅓ innings, and Cleveland’s bullpen has slid to league-average with a 3.80 ERA. Offensively, the Guardians sit 23rd in runs, 21st in average and have scored four or fewer in five straight, while Toronto’s lineup—though inconsistent—showed signs of life with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s go-ahead homer in Thursday’s win. With the pitching edge and home-field advantage, Kenny feels the Jays warrant a small wager and notes the under 8.5 as a secondary look if you distrust Allen even more.

Lindquist bet Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings at ‑105 for Guardians–Blue Jays. He loves Chris Bassitt’s current form: 34.4% hard-hit rate, 27.1% K-rate and an expanded arsenal that now features a heavier curveball/slider mix and a new splitter to neutralize lefties. Logan Allen isn’t dominant, but Cleveland will give him a quick hook if necessary, and the closed roof in Toronto plays closer to neutral than hitters think. His simulations show barely 41% chance of five or more early runs, so the under is a clear value.

B Wade recommended taking Danny Jansen under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against southpaw Max Fried. Jansen has cleared this prop only three times in 22 games (14 % hit rate). He is 0-for-6 lifetime versus Fried and is batting just .095 (2-for-21) against left-handed pitching this season. Wade added that Tampa Bay’s offense—Jansen’s opponent in this interleague spot—scored only three runs in an entire three-game set against Kansas City, limiting potential RBI opportunities. With Fried sitting at 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, Wade believes Jansen would need multiple hits to cash the over, a scenario he views as highly unlikely.

B Wade said he likes Chris Bassitt to stay under 2.5 earned runs Friday against the Cleveland Guardians. Bassitt owns a 2.60 ERA and a WHIP in the low-1.00s. In two home starts this season—versus Baltimore and Atlanta—he surrendered just one total run, while his only rough outings (4 ER in each) came on the road against the Astros and Yankees. Cleveland has not scored more than four runs in any of its last ten games, meaning the Guardians would have to tag Bassitt for three to beat this line. Given the opponent’s mediocre offense and Bassitt’s sharp home splits, Wade views the under as one of the slate’s best pitching props.

Romanelli’s favorite Friday total is the under in Cleveland–Toronto. Chris Bassitt owns a sub-1.00 ERA at Rogers Centre this year and pairs a 50 % ground-ball rate with the league’s best chase-inducing curve, elements Romanelli believes will limit a Guardians club that rarely hits for power. On the other side, Logan Allen has allowed only one run over his last 11.1 road innings and now faces a Jays lineup that boasts strong expected batting averages but ranks near the bottom in isolated power. Add Cleveland’s top-rated bullpen and Romanelli projects both staffs to keep crooked numbers off the board, making the under his preferred play.

Welsh’s favorite wager was the full-game over 8.5 in Boston-Toronto. Tanner Houck carries a 7.00 ERA and has surrendered a .312 average to lefties, while Jose Berrios’ ERA has climbed to 4.10 thanks to a career-low 19% strikeout rate. Boston just welcomed back Alex Bregman and Toronto’s lineup woke up with Anthony Santander homering again. With two shaky bullpens (both bottom-10 in FIP) lurking, Welsh expects a slugfest north of nine runs.

Joe Pisapia backed Anthony Santander to go deep again Thursday, highlighting that the switch-hitter has homered in two of his last three games and is finally squaring balls up after pressing during his first month in Toronto. Pisapia said he watched every plate appearance last night and noted multiple 105-mph exit velocities, a sign Santander’s timing has clicked. With the swing path built for Rogers Centre’s right-field porch and a middling opposing lefty on the mound, Pisapia likes Santander’s HR prop at anything north of +400 and would consider him a low-owned DFS one-off for those chasing power.

Asked about a 12-team roto deal of Jose Ramirez for Yordan Alvarez and Hayden Wesneski, Welsh said he would "100 percent" take the Ramirez side. While he acknowledged Alvarez’s prodigious power, Welsh argued that Ramirez’s five-category production, elite plate skills and batting-order spot give him the higher fantasy floor and ceiling. Wesneski isn’t enough of a sweetener to offset what Ramirez brings in runs, steals and batting average, so Welsh advised listeners to smash accept if they can land J-Ram for that package.

Pisapia told the chat he is "buying Anthony Santander everywhere." While many managers are frustrated after Santander’s slow April, Pisapia pointed out that the outfielder has now homered on back-to-back days and historically heats up once the calendar flips to May. Given the underlying power track record (30-plus homers in two of the last three seasons) and the fact that his barrel rate is already climbing, Pisapia believes this is the last chance to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat at a discount before the hot streak fully arrives.

Chris Welsh said he is "very, very much in on Clase" and advised fantasy managers to keep rolling the Cleveland right-hander out there. Clase converted his fifth save after giving up a single run, and Welsh emphasized that the Guardians are clearly still handing him the ninth inning while using Cade Smith in a pure setup role. He contrasted the situation with Milwaukee, where Devin Williams already looks shaky and Luke Weaver is breathing down his neck, noting that Clase’s stuff is intact and the organization keeps feeding him save chances. Welsh’s takeaway: if there was even a tiny buy-low window it has probably slammed shut, but managers who already roster Clase should feel comfortable that the job is still his.

Brian Bitler advised betting the Toronto Blue Jays at -145 on the moneyline against the Cleveland Guardians. He framed it as a contrarian spot where the favorite is intentionally priced high to scare off action. Bitler acknowledged Toronto’s 2-8 skid over the last 10 games but emphasized that Chris Bassitt has acted as a rotation stopper, entering with a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Bitler projected the contest to stay tight until roughly the seventh inning, at which point he expects the Jays’ bats to break it open. With Bassitt’s form and Toronto’s urgency for a home win, Bitler believed the -145 price still holds betting value.

Kevin Thomas said he would take Cleveland on the moneyline if forced to pick a side because the Guardians are plus money in what he views as a toss-up. While acknowledging Bassitt’s strong home numbers, he pointed out that those outings came against a slumping Orioles lineup and thinks Cleveland’s balanced offense, slick defense, and fundamentally sound play narrow the gap. He also flagged potential bullpen fatigue for Toronto after a hard-fought series with the Red Sox, which could tilt late-inning leverage toward the Guardians.

Kevin Thomas recommended betting under 8.5 runs in Guardians-Blue Jays, projecting both starters – Chris Bassitt and rookie left-hander Taylor Allen – to work at least six effective innings. Bassitt’s two-start home sample (17 Ks, 1.35 ERA) suggests a sharp form, while Allen has posted a road ERA around 2.00 by pounding the zone with his sinker/slider combo. Thomas noted a potential let-down spot for Toronto after an emotional divisional series with Boston and wondered if a taxed bullpen could help the under by forcing managers to ride the starters longer. He believes a combined final tally of roughly four runs is realistic and suggested an even safer first-five under for bettors worried about late-inning variance.