Lonte Smith doubled down on the Angels and added the over 9.5. He pointed to Jose Soriano’s Jekyll-and-Hyde game logs—either 0 or 3 earned runs in seven straight starts—and a burgeoning walk problem (three-plus walks in five consecutive outings) as catalysts for offense on both sides. Lucas Giolito has allowed six earned in two of his last three home turns and owns 19 runs conceded overall at Fenway this season. Lonte expects L.A.’s bats, invigorated by Trout’s return, to rough Giolito early while Soriano’s free passes give Boston chances to answer. He projects a 6-5 type scoreline, making the Angels money-line and the over a correlated parlay opportunity.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed the Angels at +110 in Fenway, trusting Jose Soriano and a surging lineup headlined by a fully healthy Mike Trout. Soriano owns a 2.03 ERA in seven starts—including six scoreless at Cleveland and seven scoreless versus San Diego—while Lucas Giolito has been rocked at Fenway, surrendering 13 earned in three home appearances (7.36 ERA). Bamford noted the Halos’ streaky nature but pointed out they are currently in an upswing after a six-run first inning Monday. With Trout 5-for-10 since returning and Soriano’s ground-ball profile offsetting Boston’s pull-heavy bats, he likes L.A. to keep its mini-run alive as a short road dog.

Kenny G leaned to Boston at –130, arguing the Red Sox avoid a third straight loss behind Lucas Giolito’s recent form. Giolito owns a 1.74 ERA over three of his last four starts and limited Atlanta to one run over 4.2 innings his last time out. Jose Soriano has flashed for the Angels, but Kenny expects some regression after two straight L.A. wins and pointed to their 5.80 bullpen ERA as a late-game risk. Boston’s pen sits at 3.47 for the season, and the lineup—despite injuries—remains sixth in MLB in runs. Fenway marks of 16-15 straight-up and 16-13-2 to the under suggest home-field competence. With Trout’s return boosting L.A. variance, Kenny still prefers the steadier pitcher and bullpen combination, labeling Red Sox –130 a modest but playable edge.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Nick Pivetta as a strikeout target in San Francisco. The Giants have the 9th-highest K-rate against right-handers over the last three weeks. Pivetta owns 71 strikeouts in 62.1 innings and has rediscovered swing-and-miss stuff, posting 7+ Ks in three straight outings after a pair of mediocre five-strikeout games. While his K-rate drops on the road (24% vs 33.1% at Fenway), the gap is mitigated by a Giants lineup that whiffs on 30.7% of its plate appearances versus righties. Pivetta already fanned nine Giants over 5.1 innings on April 29. The host expects another 7–9 strikeouts here and is backing the Over on Pivetta’s K prop (projected line 5.5 or 6.5).

The tout took the Red Sox moneyline, highlighting Jose Soriano’s 6.94 ERA over 11.2 innings and the Angels’ vulnerability in early innings. Lucas Giolito has been "decent" for Boston and draws an LAA lineup that has struggled on the road. Boston’s offense owns one of the league’s better home OPS marks and should pounce before shipping off to New York. With Fenway’s offensive backdrop and Soriano’s alarming splits (1.80 WHIP), Cash Out Sports Picks asserted Boston is in a prime get-right spot to avoid the sweep.

Collin Whitchurch grabbed the Red Sox first-five money-line at ‑115, keying on hitter-friendly conditions (10-mph breeze out to the Monster) and Yusei Kikuchi’s career-worst ground-ball rate. Boston grades 4% better versus lefties by wRC+ and already ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate against southpaws. Kikuchi’s sparkling June (1.89 ERA) is pure mirage in Whitchurch’s view: his xERA sits north of 4.00 and a fly-ball profile that works in Anaheim should get punished in Fenway’s bandbox. While Brayan Bayo’s 3.83 ERA is smoke-and-mirrors (29 K, 22 BB), Whitchurch prefers Boston early because their bullpen was taxed the previous night. He expects the Sox to jump Kikuchi quickly and is willing to limit exposure to five frames rather than ride Boston’s volatile pen for nine.

Collin Whitchurch said the Red Sox are his favorite sub-.500 buy in the futures market because their 6-16 record in one-run games screams positive regression. He views that extreme 27% win rate as mostly variance, noting that clubs hovering around .500 in one-run contests usually end up close to 50% by season’s end. Whitchurch conceded the AL East is tough, but argued Boston’s underlying metrics—particularly a far more respectable run differential than its record suggests—point to a club that can vault into a wild-card spot once the close-game luck evens out. He therefore prefers grabbing Red Sox playoff tickets now while the market still prices them as long-shots.

Jordan Cooper said SimLabs continues to rate Yusei Kikuchi as a strong play even with a projected 27 % ownership tag. The $6,700 left-hander appears in more optimal lineups than cheaper pivots like Christopher Sanchez and keeps pace with pricier arms such as Spencer Strider or George Kirby on raw projection. Cooper noted that the salary relief Kikuchi provides makes it easy to jam premium bats—especially Detroit, Philadelphia, or Kansas City—while still clearing median projection thresholds. Because SimLabs prefers chalk Kikuchi plus off-the-board stacks over chalk Twins hitter builds, Cooper is comfortable locking the southpaw in alongside fellow ceiling arms like Pablo Lopez or Carlos Rodon and finding differentiation with bats instead of pitching.

Seeing Yusei Kikuchi push toward 25-30 % ownership, Cooper recommended attacking that chalk by stacking Angels hitters instead of rostering the left-hander. Anaheim owns a 5.5 implied team total, strikes out but carries plenty of right-handed power (Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell). If Kikuchi’s volatility shows up—Fenway boosts right-handed fly balls—the Angels can bury a large chunk of lineups while your roster gains leverage at modest ownership.

Guy Boston backed the Angels at +130, arguing Yusei Kikuchi is simply in better current form than Brian Bayo. Kikuchi’s slider has generated a 36% whiff rate this year and should keep Boston’s left-splitting bats honest, while the Angels’ lineup profiles well against Bayo’s sinker/slider mix—Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Mike Trout all carry .400-plus xwOBA figures versus sinkers, and the club owns the league’s eighth-best run value against the pitch. Boston acknowledged Boston’s hitters do smack sliders, but at this price he is willing to trust Kikuchi for five strong innings, then hope L.A.’s bullpen stays merely average. He cautioned that yesterday’s 7-6 shootout could create a let-down spot, so he is limiting exposure to a half-unit but still sees the plus-money dog as the sharp side.

Razzle will take small GPP shots on Yusei Kikuchi because both the Angels and Red Sox rank top-10 in strikeout rate versus lefties. Kikuchi owns a 6.5 K prop, yet he has issued 11 walks in his last three road starts and has been fortunate to allow one run or fewer in four of his previous five. The tout expects that luck to run out eventually but thinks the matchup’s whiff potential offsets the walk risk. He advised limiting exposure, pairing Kikuchi with a high-floor SP1, and embracing the variance strictly in tournaments.

Brad Francis bet Yusei Kikuchi under 6.5 strikeouts at Fenway. He argued seven punch-outs is a big ask in a hitter-friendly park and noted Boston’s contact-oriented lineup. Kikuchi has stayed under this number in four of his last five outings, and Francis sees no reason that trend stops in a park where fly balls carry and Angels’ manager often limits Kikuchi to around 90 pitches.

Kenny G advised grabbing the Angels at +120 in Fenway, calling them his favorite 'little dog of the day.' His confidence hangs on Yusei Kikuchi’s recent heater — a 3.06 ERA with back-to-back outings of 5+ scoreless frames against Miami and New York — plus a Red Sox lineup he still refuses to trust despite ranking sixth in runs. Boston counters with Brayan Bello, whose ERA has climbed to 3.83 and who has failed to work five full innings in any of his last three starts. Kenny added that Mike Trout’s 454-foot bomb and three-hit night in the series opener signal the MVP is healthy again, giving L.A.’s 27th-ranked batting average some badly needed punch. The matchup of MLB’s second-worst bullpen (Angels 5.94 ERA) versus Boston’s respectable 3.53 unit keeps him from going heavier, but he believes Kikuchi’s form plus the plus-money price outweigh those concerns.

Just A Bet Outside backed Yusei Kikuchi to clear 16.5 outs at Fenway, projecting a full six-inning effort despite some recent walk issues. The host pointed out that Kikuchi has surpassed this line in 8 of 12 starts overall and in 6 of 7 road outings, the lone miss coming in a second-inning blow-up. He highlighted Kikuchi’s strong May (1.89 ERA, .248 BAA) and the Blue Jays’ willingness to let him throw 100 pitches, noting that a taxed Angels bullpen—Tyler Anderson failed to reach five frames the night before—virtually guarantees a long leash. Boston’s lineup grades only 16th in WRC+ versus lefties over the past three weeks, and three of the last five southpaws (Trevor Rogers, Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal) have gone at least six innings against them. The absence of “count-working” Alex Bregman, according to the tout, further shortens at-bats. Even acknowledging 13 walks across Kikuchi’s last three starts, the host argued that his knack for limiting hard contact and stranding runners should let him navigate six full innings; if he keeps the free passes to two or fewer, he “cruises” past the prop. He recommended a half-unit wager at ‑105 and hinted at additional plays to be posted later on social channels.

Just A Bet Outside warned that Brayan Bello is skating on thin ice and is a pitcher to fade against Toronto. Bello’s expected ERA sits near 6.00, almost double his actual mark, and he owns one of the lowest whiff rates on the slate. He allows steady traffic – high hit rate, below-average strikeout percentage – and now faces a Blue Jays lineup that punishes contact. Stephen highlighted Yusei Kikuchi’s strong form (1.89 ERA in May) on the other side, recommending Blue Jays moneyline or team total overs and considering Bello unders on outs recorded. The expectation is that Toronto knocks him out early and hangs multiple runs before the bullpen arrives.

Romanelli is grabbing the Angels at plus money because Yusei Kikuchi’s recent control trouble (four-plus walks in three straight) came versus the Yankees and Marlins, the two best teams at drawing free passes from lefties over the last month. Boston sits outside the top-10 in walk rate against southpaws and strikes out roughly 26% of the time in the split, a friendlier backdrop for Kikuchi inside Fenway. On the other side, Brayan Bello sports a 3.83 ERA that masks a 5.99 xERA, 5.05 FIP, five walks per nine and a strikeout rate that has fallen from 8.5 to 6.5 K/9. Bello also rarely works deep into games, exposing a scuffling Red Sox bullpen. Given Boston’s recent slump, Romanelli likes the Angels at the current price.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox to win outright, pointing to three angles. 1) Current form: Los Angeles has dropped seven of its last eight overall and six of seven against AL-East opponents, signaling a club in free-fall. 2) Bullpen edge: Boston's relievers own a 3.61 ERA compared to the Angels’ dreadful 6.04, giving the Sox a clear late-inning advantage even if Yusei Kikuchi continues his personal run of six straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. 3) Venue & trends: Boston has taken four of the last six head-to-head meetings and is back at Fenway where it has been profitable. With Brayan Bello coming off two sharp outings and the Angels getting swept by the Yankees last week, the tout believes the price still underrates Boston’s superior relief corps and healthier lineup.

Derek Carty recommended UNDER 4.5 Ks (+105) for Tyler Anderson, projecting only a 46% chance he reaches five strikeouts (54% success rate, EV +$11.13). Anderson’s fastball velocity has slipped to 88.3 mph from last year’s 89.5 mph, and a warm Fenway environment should encourage early contact rather than swings-and-misses.

Derek Carty likes Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 HR at +400 with a 21% projected probability (EV +$7.15). Devers has raised his average launch angle to 14.6° from 11.3° last season, giving his hard contact more loft. He draws soft-tossing lefty Tyler Anderson and enjoys rising temperatures at Fenway, a park THE BAT X grades as an 'A' for left-handed power.

Derek Carty projected a 94% chance Richard Fitts stays UNDER 3.5 Ks (-190, EV +$81.35). An 8.6 mph wind blowing out to right—the third-best hitting wind on the slate—should shorten Fitts’ outing and suppress punch-outs, making the under a strong prop play.

Todd Zola pointed to Trevor Story as a widely available right-handed bat to stream Monday. Story will have the platoon edge on soft-tossing lefty Tyler Anderson, and rising Northeast temperatures should spike run production at Fenway. With Anderson’s recent velo dip and a Red Sox park factor graded 'A' for offense, Zola expects Story to open the fantasy week with multiple RBI opportunities.

Sean Zerillo bet the Angels moneyline at +135 (playable to +130), arguing Boston should be only -120 favorites. He pointed to the Red Sox’s 95 wRC+ since Alex Bregman hit the IL and their poor split versus left-handers (projected 97 wRC+ with only Rafael Devers, Rob Refsnyder, and rookie Kristian Campbell grading as above-average vs southpaws). Meanwhile, the Angels project for a 110 wRC+ versus righty Richard Fitts, with seven of nine hitters above league average, Logan O’Hoppe pacing for 30 HR (126 wRC+), Zach Neto posting 125 wRC+ with +3 DRS in 39 games, and Mike Trout returning and due for positive regression (.306 wOBA vs .372 xwOBA). Zerillo concedes Boston owns the pitching edge (Fitts 4.12 xERA vs Tyler Anderson 3.96 xERA but higher projected FIP) and the Angels bullpen is bottom-five by xFIP, yet notes Red Sox relievers have struggled over the last month. His model makes this a near coin-flip, creating value on the road dog.

Dylan Rockford is on the opposite side of his co-host, betting Over 9.5 because both starters profile as blow-up candidates. He has Richard Fitz’s Fenway ERA tracking nearly two runs higher than on the road and pointed to Tyler Anderson’s drastic road/home split—nine runs surrendered over his last two road outings. The Angels are 19–13 to the over away from Anaheim and are backed by MLB’s worst bullpen. Meanwhile Boston slashes .261 against left-handers and will have 12-mph winds blowing out toward the Monster. Rockford’s model makes the total 9.9 and he believes double-digit runs hit the board more often than not.

Reichel doubled down with an Under 9.5 recommendation, arguing that the Angels’ sputtering offense (one win in eight games) will not contribute enough runs to clear such a lofty total. He noted Boston’s lineup can be streaky, and with Anderson posting a 3.12 ERA in his last four starts, the early innings could stay quiet. Reichel ultimately trusts Boston’s ability to win while keeping L.A. in check, projecting a 5-2 or 4-3 type scoreline that stays well under the number.

Scott Reichel laid out why he is grabbing Boston –1.5 at +140 against Los Angeles. The Angels have dropped seven of eight overall and generated little offense in that span, while Boston is coming off a confidence-boosting series win versus Atlanta. Even though rookie Richard Fitz is less proven than Tyler Anderson, Reichel trusts Boston’s right-handed bats (Devers, Story, Campbell) to punish an Angels lineup that cannot keep games close. He wants no part of the Angels’ bullpen, ranking dead last in MLB ERA, and thinks fading a team in obvious free-fall at plus money is the only playable angle.

Lindquist fired on Over 9.5 runs (-115) in Angels-Red Sox, projecting the total closer to 10.5. Weather sits in the mid-70s with a steady breeze out toward the Green Monster, historically a +12% homer boost for right-handed bats. Boston draws extreme fly-ball lefty Tyler Anderson (20.8° average launch angle allowed, 3.96 xERA) whose four-seam/change combo does little to suppress hard contact; Jarren Duran’s power-speed profile and Rafael Devers’ pull power both get emphasized by the wind. Rookie right-hander Richard Fitts returns from a month-long absence for the Angels in what amounts to a bullpen game; Lindquist highlighted Fitts’ 4.12 xERA vs 2.70 ERA and a below-average slider/sweeper that could get punished by Boston’s righties peppering the Monster. With both pens stretched and Fenway’s quirky dimensions turning deep flies into extra-base hits, Lindquist expects a run-fest and sees value until books move the total a full run higher.

Bill Harrelson backed Rob Refsnyder to go OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Monday. Harrelson admitted Refsnyder has cleared the number in only 4 of his last 10, but said the matchup and market price trump that small sample. Refsnyder owns a .667 on-base percentage in six career plate appearances versus Tim Anderson, a split Harrelson described as "he owns Tim Anderson." The bigger reason is the market: DraftKings is dealing the same prop at ‑140 and Sleeper at ‑152, a price Harrelson called "insane value" for a typical ‑115 line. He considers the heavy juice a signal that oddsmakers expect Refsnyder to produce and therefore made it the first leg of his four-pick card.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking the Angels team total over 2.5 runs at -126 on DraftKings as the first leg of his alt-team-total parlay. He cited that Los Angeles has scored at least three runs in 9 of its last 10 road games, averaging 6.5 runs during that stretch. Since May 1, the Halos rank second in MLB in WRC+, slugging, OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching on the road and lead the league in homers in that split. Monday they draw Boston rookie Richard Fitz, who owns a low strike-out rate, threw only 44 pitches in his last outing, and surrendered six earned runs over his first 12 big-league innings versus scuffling Toronto and Texas lineups. Fenway’s game total sits around 9.5 with warm hitting weather, and the Red Sox bullpen is thin after using Chapman and Weiser on Sunday. With Mike Trout expected back and only three runs needed, the tout likes the over to cash comfortably.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Boston Red Sox moneyline. The tout stressed Boston’s .260 team average at Fenway and identical clip versus left-handed pitching, projecting them to feast on Tyler Anderson’s road splits (4.78 ERA, 1.48 WHIP in five away starts). Rookie Richard Fitts owns a tidy 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .220 BAA through four outings; going five strong would shield a fatigued bullpen. Conversely, the Angels sit below .230 overall, possess only middling power and draw a park upgrade for Boston. With the Sox 16-14 at home and motivated to build momentum, the host’s sticks and pitching edge made them the pick.