Guy Boston is going right back to the well with the Mets first-five run line −0.5 (−134 on ProfitX) versus Bailey Falter. He trusts Clay Holmes’ sinker/slider combo to keep the Pirates quiet, noting Pittsburgh ranks 27th against sliders and sits middle-of-the-pack versus sinkers. Cooler, damp Citi Field conditions further depress run scoring for the Bucs, while New York’s offense should scrape together two to three early runs against Falter’s mediocre 18 % K-rate. Boston compared market pricing— most books have the play in the −150s— and said grabbing anything better than −140 is value before a peer-to-peer match disappears.

Mark Zinno said to fade Bailey Falter and play the New York Mets team-total over 4.5 runs tonight at Citi Field. Zinno pointed out that the Mets absolutely hammer southpaws at home – .303 batting average, .851 OPS and a 146 WRC+, all second-best in MLB behind only the Yankees. Falter’s road ERA sits near 6.00 and three of the six homers he has surrendered have come away from PNC Park. Zinno added that the Mets tend to give starter Clay Holmes 5.8 runs of support per outing and are 7-1 in his starts, while Pittsburgh has not scored more than four runs in a game since April 22. With the Pirates offense ice-cold and Falter’s fly-ball profile ill-suited for Citi Field, Zinno expects New York to break out and hinted that laying the ‑1.5 run line is also viable.

Erik Halterman called Mark Vientos a live buy-low after a misleading start. Vientos cratered at .109 with zero homers through his first 13 games, but even in that stretch he chopped his K-rate from 30 % last year to 18 % and was undone by a .152 BABIP. Over his last 25 contests he is batting .309 with five homers and only a 22 % K-rate. Season-to-date he still shows a blah .243/.721 line, keeping trade cost down. The one red flag Halterman noted is a massive drop in pull rate—42 % last year to 29 % overall and just 21 % during the hot run—which could cap raw power. If that remains, the added opposite-field approach plus better contact offers batting-average upside; if he starts pulling again, the homers come back. Either way Halterman sees any disappointed managers as an opportunity to grab a useful corner infielder for pennies.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets to win and cover the run line because Pittsburgh has scored three runs or fewer in nine of its last ten and is just 3-13 since April 26. While Bailey Falter owns a sparkling 0.69 ERA this month, the Pirates have given him virtually no support—three runs or fewer in four of his last six starts. New York counters with Clay Holmes, who has yielded only 15 hits and four runs over his last 17 innings (3.00 season ERA) and gets a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA to protect any lead.

Guy Boston doubled down on Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –130, adding a slate of lefty-lefty data to explain why he is giving the Mets star one more shot. Soto has cleared this number in 27 of 43 games (63%) with a 2.12 HRR average, and he is 3-for-3 versus the Pirates this year while averaging 1.75 HRR over the last four meetings. The specific draw tonight is southpaw Bailey Falter. Soto owns a .353 batting average and 185 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season compared to .255 and 140 overall. Falter’s own splits explode against lefty bats: ERA nearly doubles, batting average allowed jumps from .232 to .351, homers per nine rise from 1.2 to 2.1, and wOBA balloons from .303 to .409. Soto is already 6-for-16 (.375) lifetime off Falter, giving Boston enough converging signals to label the –130 price “phenomenal value.”

Guy Boston went back to the well with Juan Soto, taking over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at -130 on BetMGM against the Pirates. Soto has eclipsed this number in 7 of his last 10 contests, averaging 2.2 HRR during that stretch, and sports a 63% season hit rate (27 of 43 games, 2.12 HRR average). Although Soto started slowly, those numbers mirror his 2024 success on this prop. Boston admitted he is 0-3 betting Soto this year but trusts the steady uptick in production and the favorable price to finally convert, especially with the Mets lineup clicking around him.

It's The Final Round highlighted Brandon Nimmo as a plus EV single-hit parlay piece against Bailey Falter. Nimmo owns a 5-for-12 track record with a homer (.417) versus the Pirates’ left-hander and rides a current five-game hitting streak. Falter has been tagged by lefties all season (the tout referenced the .300+ BAA filter he uses for his model) and does not possess a put-away breaker that normally troubles Nimmo. Given the favorable BvP numbers and Nimmo’s recent form, he expects at least one knock and suggested sliding the Mets leadoff man into multi-leg hit parlays.

Bamford laid the–1.5 run line behind Clay Holmes, citing six earned runs allowed over his last five outings and a 2.74 ERA. New York has won five straight while covering the run line each time, giving the club its best home start since the pennant-winning 2015 season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has gone 16 consecutive games without eclipsing four runs and averages just 2.75 on the road. Though Bailey Falter’s lone disaster came against the Dodgers, Bamford doubts the Pirates’ punchless offense can support him. In his words, the Mets will “find a way” to win by multiple runs yet again.

Unwilling to lay –260, Rockford targeted the Mets team total over 4–4.5 runs. New York owns a .274 average versus lefties and consistently rallies late at Citi Field. Pirates southpaw Bailey Falter has struggled on the road, and Pittsburgh’s bullpen offers little relief. The Bucs have dropped eight of ten while scoring just 2.75 runs per road game, so Rockford doubts they can keep pace. He suggested waiting for an in-game price on the Mets if the sides stay tied early but is comfortable attacking the team total pre-flop to extract value from the lopsided matchup.

Kenny G said the number on Pittsburgh (+220) is simply too fat given Bailey Falter’s recent form. The lefty just blanked the Padres and Braves for 12 straight scoreless innings, allowing only five total baserunners in those two starts. New York counters with Clay Holmes (2.74 ERA), but despite a 5-0 team record in his last five, the Mets have scored just 2-7 runs in that span and remain without their usual offensive punch. Kenny noted the Pirates’ bullpen (4.32 ERA) is "bad but not melting down" and that both games in the series have been one-run nail-biters. With Pittsburgh 12-6-2 to the under on the road and the Mets 11-7-2 to the under at Citi Field, he views a low-scoring environment as the great equalizer, creating real upset equity at better than 2-to-1.

B Wade said Juan Soto is a slam-dunk to clear 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Wednesday at nearly even money. Soto has cashed this line in 63 % of games to date. He owns a 3-for-8 (.375) career line off scheduled starter Bailey Falter and demolishes southpaws in general, batting .353 against left-handed pitching versus a .255 overall average. Wade believes the combination of Soto’s historical success versus Falter, his lefty-splits advantage, and the solid implied odds makes the over an auto-click for DFS pick-em slips.

Polzin recommended the UNDER on Jeff McNeil’s fantasy score for the same Keller matchup. McNeil owns just 2 hits in 12 at-bats versus Keller, good for a .167 average, with 2 strikeouts and a lone homer propping up the tiny sample. Polzin stressed that a .167 AVG paired with minimal power production makes McNeil’s current prop line far too optimistic. Until McNeil shows he can solve Keller’s four-seam/curveball combo, Polzin wants no part of the over.

Eric Polzin advised taking the UNDER on Francisco Lindor’s fantasy score despite Lindor riding a recent heater. Polzin pointed out that Lindor’s career numbers against Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller are poor: only 2 hits in 10 plate appearances ( .200 ) with 3 strikeouts. Although Lindor has drawn 5 walks in that span, Polzin argued the lack of hard contact plus the elevated K-rate make Lindor unlikely to pay off his current fantasy prop. He called the public enthusiasm to chase Lindor’s hot streak 'a trap' and said Keller’s pitch mix has consistently given Lindor problems. Polzin would only pass, never play the over.

Lonte Smith preferred the first-five under 4.5 in the same Mets–Pirates game rather than attacking the hefty moneyline. He highlighted Kodai Senga’s 0.98 ERA over his last five turns and Mitch Keller’s steady form—only one outing above three earned runs in the same span—arguing both starters are throwing too well for early fireworks. Combine that with a Pittsburgh lineup he called ‘the one offense I never bet on’, and you have a clear recipe for a low-scoring first half. Smith noted Senga’s 32% whiff rate and Keller’s improved ground-ball profile as additional evidence runs will be scarce before the bullpens enter.

Malcolm Bamford said to back the Mets on the run line behind Kodai Senga against Pittsburgh. Senga owns a microscopic 1.16 ERA when facing sub-.500 teams and New York is 23-17 as a run-line favorite overall. The Mets have covered in four of Senga’s seven starts, including every time the opposition grades as ‘lesser’, while the Pirates’ offense has fallen below four runs in six of its past eight. Bamford added that Francisco Lindor is scorching with a .360 average over the last week, giving the lineup enough punch to create margin. Given Senga’s elite splitter and the Pirates’ 27.9% strikeout rate versus righties, he expects a multi-run cushion and said anything near even money on -1.5 is worth firing.

Malcolm Bamford said to fire on Paul Skenes and the Pirates as +140 underdogs against the Mets. He reminded listeners that the crew correctly faded Skenes in his debut as a road favorite but argued the calculus flips when you are getting plus money. Bamford expects Skenes’ triple-digit fastball and wipe-out slider to keep the Pirates in any game, and noted that backing an ace-level arm at this price gives you ‘all upside, limited downside.’ His core thesis: Skenes gives Pittsburgh a real chance to win—take that chance whenever the market hangs a dog price.

Kenny G said the simplest path here is to swallow the juice and back the Mets at –250. Kodai Senga has been almost untouchable – 4-2, 1.16 ERA, and only three earned runs allowed over his last five starts. Pittsburgh counters with Mitch Keller (1-4, 4.40) and is 0-5 the last five times he has taken the hill. The Pirates’ sticks are ice-cold: they rank DEAD LAST in runs, second-to-last in slugging and have scored 3-4-2-3-0 their last five. The Mets, meanwhile, are 27-15 overall, 15-4 at Citi Field and own the No. 6 bullpen by ERA (3.16). Their offense has plated 4-6-5-7-7 in that same span and sits 7th in runs and 8th in batting average. Kenny acknowledged you could chase the 7.5-run under given both clubs’ 11-7-1 and 12-6-1 under records at home/road, but he prefers riding Senga and a superior relief corps against the 5-14 road Buccos.

Johnny Venezia called Griffin Canning one of the most reliable arms still on waivers. Canning owns a 2.36 ERA, a 42:16 K:BB in 42 innings, and is 5-1 for a New York Mets club that has been much better than expected. Venezia emphasized Canning’s floor: only four earned runs allowed over his last five starts and just one outing with more than one run surrendered since April (a four-run game). Managers can pencil him in for five to six innings of two or fewer runs nearly every time out, plus a real chance at a win. Still available in 38 percent of leagues, Venezia projected Canning to finish with 13–14 victories if this form holds, making him a rare consistent producer to pluck off the wire.

Just A Bet Outside took the under 4.5 K’s on Mitch Keller, noting the Pirate right-hander has cleared that number in only three of eight starts. Statcast grades are ugly: 22nd percentile strikeout rate, 9th percentile whiff rate, and just a 40th-percentile chase rate. His strikeout percentage plummets to 13.7 % versus lefties, and the Mets are projected to run six or seven left-handed hitters. Recent comparable righties with higher K-rates such as Sonny Gray, Zac Gallen, Paul Skenes, and Merrill Kelly managed only 6 punch-outs apiece against New York, while softer arms like Kyle Hendricks and Ryan Nelson stayed well below five. With Keller’s inability to miss bats and the Mets’ league-average 20.8 % K-rate over the last three weeks, the host said the only path to failure is Keller turning into “Nolan Ryan for a night,” something the underlying skills do not support.

JD Bets laid out a straightforward case for taking the Mets on the moneyline Monday. Pittsburgh’s bats are in complete hibernation, averaging just 2.1 runs over their last 10 games—dead-last in MLB and even worse than Milwaukee’s recent slump. Although Paul Skenes takes the mound, JD noted the rookie’s recent wobble: four walks in back-to-back outings and whispers of a possible minor issue that the club is not broadcasting. New York, meanwhile, owns a league-average 8.3 K-per-game rate that should let them scrape together enough contact to cash in those free passes. With the Pirates offering virtually no run support (they have lost every Skenes start in which they score three or fewer), JD believes three Mets runs likely seal the deal. He passed on Skenes’ 6.5-strikeout prop, calling it “too sweaty,” and instead recommended the simple Mets ML at roughly –135, trusting the combination of weak Pirates offense and Skenes’ control hiccups to swing the game.

Guy Boston suggested attacking the game with a reverse first-five run line on Pittsburgh –0.5 at +150. His logic is simple: Paul Skenes is already flashing ace-level stuff while David Peterson’s platoon split is a problem against a projected Mets lineup that features seven right-handed bats. Boston expects Peterson’s regression to show up quickly because righties have slugged him for a .447 wOBA this season and his first-pitch strike rate is down to 55 %. If Skenes “deals,” as Boston put it, even two or three early Pirate runs could cash the ticket, and the extra 45-cent bump over the straight F5 money line (+105) makes the risk worthwhile. He capped it as a quarter-unit play but paired it conceptually with a lean toward the Mets F5 team total Under 1.5 should that open at +125 or better.

Razzle likes David Peterson as a contrarian left-handed option. The Mets are –166 favorites and Peterson’s 5.5 K-prop ranks fourth on the slate. Pittsburgh’s lineup is especially vulnerable to southpaws; there’s a chance O’Neill Cruz even sits, further weakening the order. Peterson gets an extra day of rest after a 104-pitch outing and has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six starts. Razzle will have him in GPP pools hoping the field overlooks the spot.

Razzle will still mix in Paul Skenes even though his strikeouts have tailed off since tweaking his arm angle. Skenes owns the second-highest K-prop on the slate (6.5, juiced under) and faces a Mets lineup that has been league-average vs righties. At +160 to record a win, he carries middle-tier victory equity but brings a raw points ceiling few others match. Razzle sees him as a boom-or-bust tournament option worth 10–15 % exposure.

Pisapia pounced on Pittsburgh at +120 with Paul Skenes on the hill. Even after a shaky Cardinals start, Skenes still sports a 32% strikeout rate and the best Stuff+ among National League starters. Pisapia conceded the Mets lineup has been red-hot (121 wRC+ in May) but argued that whenever the league’s premier strikeout arm is an underdog, bettors should take the value. He trusts Skenes to outduel David Peterson and believes a middling New York bullpen (4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) gives the Pirates paths to win even in a low-scoring game.

Bettor Mark locked in Under 7 at +105 for Pirates–Mets, banking on a pitchers’ duel between Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA) and his ‘favorite’ Mets starter (unnamed in clip). Mark expects Skenes to flash ace stuff on a bigger stage away from PNC Park, while the Mets arm has quietly suppressed hard contact all season. Although the Pirates offense has trended up, he sees both lineups struggling to string hits against power arms and prefers the plus-money number in a game he projects at six combined runs or fewer.

Bryan Power recommended taking the Pirates on the first-five moneyline with Paul Skenes opposing David Peterson. Power noted he has faded Skenes twice because Pittsburgh’s bullpen is a mess, but in this spot he wants Skenes only through five where the tie pushes. Skenes has allowed more than three runs just once all season and should log five strong innings. Peterson’s Baseball Savant page shows a 4.46 expected ERA, and he walked four in his last start, a 5–1 loss to Arizona. With Peterson’s control issues and the Mets’ offense scuffling, Power expects Skenes to leave with a lead, cautioning the full-game underdog price is tempting but the bullpen risk is not worth it.

The tout played the under based on league-wide trend data and dominant starter splits. Pirate games have cashed under in 23 of 41 thanks to MLB-worst scoring (3.10 runs/game). On the road that offense falls to 2.74. Skenes owns a 1.46 ERA on the highway, Peterson a 3.10 ERA at Citi Field, and both clubs have leaned under through identical 23-16-2 records. New York’s pen ranks sixth (3.16 ERA) while Pittsburgh’s sits 20th (4.24) but rarely pitches under stress because the bats don't score. Two of the last three meetings also stayed below the total, reinforcing the angle.

Kenny G recommended backing New York at –135, arguing the Mets hold edges on the mound, at the plate, and in the bullpen. Southpaw David Peterson owns a 3.05 ERA and has already logged quality outings against the Phillies and Cardinals, while Pittsburgh’s phenom Paul Skenes still shows growing pains—3-4 record, 2.77 ERA but 4 walks in his latest start and uneven showings versus the Cubs and Guardians. The Pirates’ offense ranks dead last in MLB in runs (127), 27th in average, and 29th in slugging, scoring 4 or fewer in five straight. Conversely, the Mets sit 8th in runs, 5th in OBP and have plated 6, 5, 7, 7 and 5 runs in recent games with Francisco Lindor surging and Pete Alonso waking back up. Kenny highlighted New York’s bullpen (3.16 ERA, 6th best) versus Pittsburgh’s still-suspect 4.24 unit as another separator. Even acknowledging Skeens’ upside, Kenny does not believe he can throw a complete-game shutout—effectively the requirement to win for an anemic Pirates lineup—so he is comfortable laying the short price with the 15-4 home Mets.

Lonte Smith laid the −145 with the Mets because he cannot stomach the Pirates’ bullpen (bottom-5 in xFIP) or lineup that is batting .205 and scoring just three runs per nine over the last ten games. While acknowledging Paul Skenes’ talent, Lonte pointed to the rookie’s eight walks in his past two starts and stressed that Citi Field has been kind to New York, where the Mets are 15-6 and averaging 5.2 runs. David Peterson has been much steadier at home than on the road, and the Mets’ offense is slashing .285/.351/.451 over the past week. Lonte said the classic split—Pirates first five, Mets full game—fits this matchup, but his official wager is Mets moneyline, trusting their late-inning edge.

Scott Reichel said the only angle he trusts in Pirates-Mets is Pittsburgh first-five moneyline at roughly +120. He wants Paul Skenes’ innings and nothing else, noting the rookie’s 2.77 ERA, 35% K-rate, and 1.89 road ERA. Reichel does worry about eight walks in Skenes’ last two starts and a Pirates bullpen sitting on a 5.10 ERA, which is why he refuses to touch the full game. He is comfortable fading David Peterson, who has allowed 7-plus hits in three of his last five and has been far less effective at Citi Field. Scott projects a low-scoring opening half where Skenes exits with a lead, making the plus-money first-five bet the play.

Despite Paul Skenes’ impressive 1.46 road ERA and .161 opponent average, Cash Out Sports Picks sided with New York. The Mets boast the ninth-best team ERA (3.62) compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.25, a much deeper lineup, and a clutch OPS with runners in scoring position (.723, 16th) that dwarfs Pittsburgh’s .658 (25th). The Mets have claimed six of the last eight head-to-head meetings and bring a top-10 bullpen (3.16 ERA) to support David Peterson’s steady home splits. The Pirates, dead last in scoring at 3.10 runs per game and only 2.74 on the road, simply lack the firepower to back their rookie ace.