JD Bets laid –170 on the Mets money line because the setup heavily favors New York. Citi Field is expecting 20‑mph winds blowing straight out to center, so any deep fly ball turns into a potential homer and Mikolas’ extreme fly‑ball profile (40.8 % FB rate, eight earned runs allowed two starts ago) could get torched. JD trusts David Peterson more; the left‑hander has surrendered just three total runs over his last two outings and owns a 26 % K‑rate versus right‑handers this season. New York’s core hitters have seen Mikolas well—Francisco Lindor is 7‑for‑17 (.412), Jeff McNeil 3‑for‑8 (.375), and Juan Soto 7‑for‑18 (.389)—while Pete Alonso’s five career homers signal legitimate power upside with today’s jet‑stream conditions. Both offenses strike out too much for JD to chase props, and the sweaty Nerfie was a pass, but he believes the combination of home field, the better starter, and wind‑boosted run production makes the Mets the clear side.

Leg four is Francisco Lindor over 0.5 hits at an expensive ‑320 but backed by elite consistency. Lindor has hit safely in nine of his last ten games, averaging 1.4 hits during that window, and is 14‑for‑18 (78 %) on the season with 1.06 hits per contest. He’s fresh off a three‑hit performance in last night’s 4‑1 victory over St. Louis. Despite the heavy juice, Boston trusts the shortstop’s form and the comfortable matchup with a Cardinals staff surrendering steady contact to switch hitters. He views Lindor as the glue piece of the parlay, projecting at least a single to keep the streak rolling.

Mark labeled the Mets moneyline (‑170) as the clear side versus St. Louis, even if the standalone price is too steep for a single‑unit wager. He plans to fold it into his Friday parlay card because David Peterson’s ground‑ball arsenal matches up perfectly with a Cardinals lineup that is 28th in slugging versus left‑handed pitching (.341). Peterson has struck out 18 hitters across his last 12 frames, while Miles Mikolas owns a 6.14 ERA and sub‑20% strikeout rate. St. Louis is batting just .209 on the road, and their bullpen has the third‑worst inherited‑runner score rate in baseball, giving New York multiple paths to cover the juice.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking Juan Soto at +290 to go deep off Miles Mikolas as well. While Ruffolo admitted he is "not a huge fan," he could not ignore Soto’s 7‑for‑21 (.333) career line with one homer and several loud outs against Mikolas. With the right‑hander’s homer issues and Soto’s elite plate discipline giving him plenty of swings in hitter’s counts, Ruffolo views the prop as a strong value play to pair with Alonso in round‑robin parlays.

Chris Ruffolo said Pete Alonso is worth a plus‑295 homer bet against the Cardinals because the underlying matchup checks every box. Alonso already has five homers and 11 extra‑base hits versus right‑handed pitching in 2025, and Miles Mikolas has long been one of the league’s most generous arms in terms of hard contact and barrels allowed. Ruffolo expects Alonso’s raw power to punish Mikolas’ average 91‑mph sinker and four‑seamer in Citi Field’s mild April weather and labeled it his favorite HR prop of the day.

Kenny G said to "slam" the Mets at –165, arguing the number should be closer to –200 with Miles Mikolas on the bump. Mikolas owns a 9.00 ERA and even his best start—five innings, three earned vs. Philly—left the Cardinals’ shaky 4.18 bullpen far too much work. New York counters with David Peterson (2.70 ERA), who has yet to allow more than two earned in three starts and is backed by MLB’s best relief unit (2.09 ERA). Citi Field has been kind to bettors: the Mets are 6‑1 at home and 14‑5 to the under, largely because that pen slams doors. Offensively, Pete Alonso is raking (.343, 5 HR, 21 RBI) and Francisco Lindor just drove in two more in the series opener, while St. Louis has fallen to 1‑6 on the road. Kenny expects New York to control the game wire‑to‑wire and cash the chalk.

Dimon recommended laying the -1.5 run line with the Mets at +130 because Miles Mikolas looks like the perfect get‑right opponent for Juan Soto and company. Soto owns a .389 lifetime average with a homer and three RBIs off Mikolas, and the St. Louis right‑hander has stumbled to an 0‑2 record, 9.00 ERA, and 1.62 WHIP through 13 innings in 2025. New York counters with David Peterson, who sports a 2.70 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. After the Mets opened the series with a 4‑1 win, Dimon expects their momentum—and Mikolas’s woes—to continue, making the run‑line price attractive.

Stephen advised staying away from Pete Alonso props on Friday, noting that the Mets slugger is just 3‑for‑18 with four strikeouts against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas’ pitch‑to‑contact style has consistently neutralized Alonso’s power, and Stephen prefers pivoting to other first‑base options in DFS and avoiding Alonso’s RBI or home‑run markets.

Johnny Venizia highlighted Thomas Saggese as this week’s top waiver add. Newly promoted, Saggese is slashing .471 with one homer through his first seven MLB games after belting 46 long balls across his last two minor‑league seasons. The 22‑year‑old carries eligibility at second, short, and third, giving managers in‑season flexibility. Venizia warned the rookie will strike out but expects a serviceable average, everyday role in an offense performing better than expected, and a realistic path to 20 homers and solid RBI totals. With only 1 percent rostership, he urged viewers in need of middle‑infield pop or lineup depth to strike now before Saggese becomes a universal pickup.

The tout highlighted Francisco Lindor as a premium prop piece, pointing to a “pretty nice” large‑sample matchup in which Lindor’s historical splits versus the opposing starter exceed .300 and the shortstop has at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 contests. Those two boxes—favorable historical average and red‑hot recent form—made Lindor a recommended addition to hit or total‑bases tickets.

The capper recommended the full‑game under, pointing to converging trends. St. Louis has stayed under in three of its last four and New York in two of its last three. The Cards’ scoring average has fallen from 5.22 to 4.0 runs over the last three games, and the Mets are producing only 3.67 runs while batting .218 versus right‑handed pitching. Peterson has allowed five total runs in three outings, and the Mets are 13‑5 to the under—the best mark in MLB. Mikolas’ recent struggles make a 5–2 or 4–2 final score plausible, but with both offenses cooling and a pair of solid bullpens, the tout believes the number is still too high.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Mets money line because every indicator leans New York. The Mets have won seven of the last ten head‑to‑head meetings and come in red‑hot after winning five of their last six overall, while St. Louis has dropped five of six away from Busch. Miles Mikolas (transcript misreads him as Nicolas) has surrendered 14 runs in only three starts and was tagged for eight runs in his last two appearances against this lineup. David Peterson has been the exact opposite, yielding just five total runs across three turns, and he hands games to a bullpen that owns the third‑best ERA in baseball. With New York’s bats slugging right‑handed pitching and the Cardinals’ lineup sputtering, the handicapper believes the Mets hold a clear pitching and recent‑form advantage at still‑reasonable odds.

Todd Zola moved David Peterson to the top of his Friday streaming list after the Mets bumped him back a day. Peterson has opened 2025 with three straight quality starts and a 2.37 ERA while working at least 5.2 innings in each turn. He now draws a home matchup with a Cardinals lineup that owns the 4th‑best season‑long wOBA but is ice‑cold this week without injured regulars Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera. Citi Field’s pitcher‑friendly dimensions and a neutral weather forecast further tilt the scales. Zola noted that Peterson is available in 84% of ESPN leagues and projects a win probability above 50% thanks to New York’s rested bullpen.

JT notes the Cardinals offense has been heating up significantly this week, consistently hitting the ball out of the park. He's paying close attention to their hot streak, strongly recommending stacking Cardinals' hitters in DFS lineups today even though he personally hasn't utilized them earlier this week. He anticipates this recent power surge continuing, making St. Louis hitters priority plays to include in today's builds.

JD Bets recommends including the St. Louis Cardinals in his money line parlay, convinced by their superior hitting matchups against the New York Mets. JD specifically contrasted the strong hitting metrics for several Cardinals batters, notably Brendan Donovan (.423 vs right-handed pitching in 52 at-bats) compared to the Mets lineup, which currently struggles overall except for Pete Alonso. He states explicitly that while both teams' pitchers seem competent, he favors the Cardinals' batting upside at +118 odds, adding them confidently to his list of parlay selections alongside Athletics, Rays, and Angels.

JD Bets enthusiastically spotted a betting opportunity in the No-Run First Inning (Nerfy) market between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. Highlighting the Cardinals' remarkable streak of scoring zero first-inning runs for at least ten straight games and averaging merely 0.17 runs in the first inning over the whole season on the road, JD sees strong support betting Nerfy, as these consistent early-game struggles provide significant value betting the first-inning under.

Guy Boston recommends betting under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs for Luis Torrens in today's matchup against Andre Pallante and the Cardinals. This prop ties closely to Boston's overall expectation of ground ball dominance. He notes Pallante throws plenty of fastballs, a pitch Torrens struggles significantly against, despite some moderate success hitting sliders, Pallante's secondary pitch. Boston believes Pallante's ground ball tendencies will limit Torrens' opportunities to produce today, making this player prop a solid, correlated play.

Joe Osbourne strongly favors Pete Alonso over 1.5 total hits, runs, RBI against the Cardinals and pitcher Andre Palante tonight. Alonso's impressive hot start (.365 average, 1.205 OPS through 50 at-bats in April) and consistent dominance versus right-handed pitching and home matchups (OPS over 1,000 in both splits) are cited by Osbourne as strong support. He also calls attention to Palante’s fortunate .182 batting average on balls in play allowed despite surrendering significant hard contact, as well as a suspect Cardinals bullpen, projecting sustained elite output from Alonso tonight at Citi Field.

Chris Ruffolo picked Pete Alonso to homer against Andre Pallante, emphasizing Alonso’s dominance versus right-handed pitching this season. Alonso's currently batting .358 against righties, with an impressive 11 extra base hits out of 19 total hits against them, including five home runs. He’s among the elite hitters in MLB this season, ranking in the top 1-2% in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. Given Pallante’s struggles and Alonso’s hot start, especially his performance against right-handers, Ruffolo sees Alonso as prime candidate to hit a home run in this matchup.

In the Cardinals-Mets matchup, Kenny G recommends betting the underdog St. Louis Cardinals (+120), driven mainly by Andre Pallante's stellar early-season pitching performance. Pallante, boasting a 2.20 ERA and recently coming off a dominant seven-inning shutout against the Phillies, has not allowed more than two earned runs in any game this season. The Cardinals offense, currently fourth in MLB in runs scored and first overall in batting average and on-base percentage, further bolsters their appeal. Conversely, Mets starter Griffin Canning has struggled recently—allowing four earned runs in five innings against the weak Oakland lineup. Despite acknowledging the Mets' bullpen excellence (2.18 ERA), Kenny feels strongly that Pallante's form and the Cardinals' potent bats present strong value at these odds.

Kenny G strongly backs the Cardinals due to Andre Pallante's outstanding early-season form (2-0, 2.20 ERA), highlighted by his most recent dominant seven-inning shutout of the Phillies allowing only two hits. Pallante hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start yet, with the Cardinals winning two of his three starts and losing only in extra innings at Fenway. Kenny believes Pallante provides exceptional betting value facing the inconsistent Mets, emphasizing Pallante's reliability and strong form as key factors for betting the Cardinals.

Dylan Rockford favors backing the Mets at home against the Cardinals, emphasizing their strong home form (5-1 straight up) compared to St Louis’ poor 1-5 road record. Dylan acknowledged Andre Pallante's good performances but raised doubts about his limited innings pitched, typically going only four or five innings. Although admitting that team totals might suggest Cardinals scoring success, Dylan trusts the Mets in a buy-low spot coming back home after dropping two straight games for the first time all season, expecting a bounce-back performance in front of home fans.

Mal Bamford strongly supports backing the Cardinals on the road against the Mets, affirming confidence in Andre Pallante. Mal noted Pallante's impressive transition from bullpen to starting role with recent strong performances, including seven scoreless innings against the Phillies and solid outings against Boston and Minnesota. Furthermore, Mal expressed concerns with New York starter Griffin Canning, who has looked vulnerable recently. With the Cardinals hitting the ball very well lately—highlighted by Juan Soto's emerging power stroke (home runs in back-to-back nights)—Pallante's surge as a reliable starter makes St. Louis valuable road underdogs.

Cash Out Sports Picks supports taking the Cardinals moneyline due to their strong recent pitching form, especially highlighting Andre Pallante, who has given up only four runs over 16.1 innings, including seven shutout innings against the Phillies. In contrast, Mets starter Griffin Canning has struggled significantly (15 hits and eight walks in 15 innings). Considering recent performances and the favorable odds, backing the Cardinals offers clear value.

Just A Bet Outside recommends betting Pete Alonso one-plus RBI prop (+140 DraftKings) due to his current scorching hot performance. Alonso is batting .356 on the season and is on a three-game RBI streak. With consistent on-base producers like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto batting ahead of him, Alonso should have plenty of RBI opportunities, especially given Andre Pallante's recent issues with command (seven walks in limited innings). While Pallante hasn't shown horrific earned-run numbers so far, his elevated walk tendencies create significant run-producing opportunities for Alonso.

Matt Perrault advised betting the under on Andre Pallante's strikeout total (4.5) against the New York Mets. He pointed out Pallante is not known as a high strikeout pitcher, posting only 3, 6, and 4 strikeouts so far this season. Crucially, Perrault emphasized that the Mets are the league's least strikeout-prone team at home with only 5.83 strikeouts per game. Due to this matchup, Perrault expects the Mets to put the ball in play consistently, potentially shortening Pallante's outing and making it difficult for him to reach five strikeouts.

Bill Harrelson strongly recommended betting on Pete Alonso to exceed 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in his matchup against the Cardinals. Harrelson pointed out Alonso's recent hot streak, hitting this number in 7 of his last 10 games and four straight games with exactly four hits/runs/RBIs each. Alonso also historically dominates Cardinals pitching, posting performances of seven and two hits/runs/RBIs in recent head-to-head matchups. Additionally, Alonso holds a .333 batting average and impressive .600 on-base percentage against Cardinals pitcher Andre Pallante. This favorable pitcher-specific data, along with sportsbooks such as DraftKings also favoring the prop, positions Alonso's over as a strong recommendation.

Bettor Mark recommends taking the St. Louis Cardinals over 3.5 team total runs at attractive plus money odds (+105). Mark highlights St. Louis' impressive offensive metrics as justification: ranked #1 in batting average and top five in runs scored and RBIs league-wide. Mark also points specifically to their top-tier slugging percentage (4th overall) and OPS (3rd overall, at .783), arguing that the favorable matchup against the Mets' starting pitcher creates strong potential for run production. Rather than betting the money line, Mark believes taking Cardinals' team total presents superior value, needing only four runs to cash this plus-money wager.

Data Skrive advises trust in the Mets at Citi Field as moderate favorites (-145) to edge out St. Louis 4-3. Although the Cardinals boast strong starter Andre Pallante with a 2.20 ERA, the Mets' home advantage in a close projected outcome provides betting value. Mets pitcher Griffin Canning holds a serviceable 4.20 ERA, signaling a tightly contested matchup but with New York ultimately being favored at home.

Analyzing the matchup between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, Data Skrive's computer selects the Mets as likely to prevail at home in Citi Field. Mets are listed as -140 favorites against the +117 Cardinals, influenced by New York’s impressive early-season 11-7 record. The model also forecasts an offensive environment that surpasses the set total of 7.5 runs, indicating that the Mets potent bats will be key in securing a high-scoring win at home.

Todd Zola recommends placing a wager on Andre Pallante under 4.5 strikeouts at -140 odds, based on concerning velocity trends. Pallante's fastball velocity—averaging 93.4 mph this season—has noticeably declined by 1.1 mph from last year's rate of 94.5 mph. This significant drop points to decreased effectiveness, bolstering a projected 65% chance that this under hits, yielding an expected value of $15.93. The matchup against the Mets' lineup further supports Pallante's decreased strikeout expectation, emphasizing the strong case for this wager.