Mills Young recommended Sonny Gray over 5.5 strikeouts in the opening game of a double-header. Gray has ‘turned his season around,’ cashing this line in 60% of recent starts while posting an 11.1 K/9 and 34% chase rate since mid-April. Young expects a watered-down daytime lineup from the opponent and notes Sports Chat Place’s tools lean to the over.

Guy Boston targeted a Philadelphia team-total over and a Cardinals team-total under in Game 1 of their double-header. He noted the Phillies crush right-handed pitching (top-5 in MLB wOBA versus RHP) and get a favorable matchup with Eric Fedde, whose road ERA is north of 5.00. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo brings a plus changeup/slider mix that historically stifles St. Louis, a club that sits bottom-10 against lefties. Because double-headers add bullpen uncertainty, Boston prefers isolating the splits via team totals and would also consider Phillies first-five run line behind Luzardo’s left arm. In short, he expects Philadelphia to score early and often while the Cardinals struggle to scratch out runs.

Brad Francis took Erick Fedde under 4.5 strikeouts, saying the number feels inflated against a contact-heavy Phillies lineup. He believes Philadelphia’s hitters will force Fedde into pitch-to-contact mode and prevent him from racking up punch-outs, making the under worth a wager.

Erik Halterman said Willson Contreras remains a buy-low even after his recent tear. Contreras opened the year in a horrific 12-game slump (.102 AVG, 41 % K-rate) while learning first-base duties, but since April 10 he has slugged .327 with an 18 % strikeout rate, six homers, and even two steals. The lull still drags his full-season numbers down to a .255 AVG and .763 OPS—his worst marks in three and five seasons respectively—so many managers still see a 33-year-old in decline. Halterman argued that if Contreras had merely hit .200 instead of .102 in those first 12 games, he would sit at .288 today and be untouchable in trades. The underlying rebound in contact quality plus catcher eligibility makes him an under-priced upgrade in season-long formats before the market fully catches up.

Erik Halterman advised cashing in on Jesus Luzardo while memories of his dazzling first three outings (3 ER total, 36 % K-rate) still inflate his reputation. Since then the left-hander owns a 2.48 ERA over five starts but has cratered to a 21 % strikeout rate and a 1.34 WHIP—numbers identical to last year’s disappointing campaign. Halterman stressed that Luzardo’s perceived ceiling rests on returning to a 30 % K-rate, something recent data do not support. Add in a lengthy injury history and the Phillies’ habit of slow-rolling workloads later in the season, and he believes managers can get more in trade today than the underlying skills deserve, especially before Luzardo has a true blow-up or health whispers re-emerge.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Cardinals money line in Game 2 of the double-header, pointing to Sonny Gray’s 3.50 ERA and .229 opponents’ average versus Aaron Nola’s uncharacteristic 4.89 ERA and .266 BAA. Nola has been even worse at Citizens Bank Park (4.67 ERA, .290 BAA in 17 IP), while St. Louis hasn’t lost since May 2. The tout sees Gray as the steadier arm and prefers the hotter lineup at plus money.

Bettor Mark expects Philadelphia to sweep Wednesday’s twin-bill and singled out Game 2 (6:15 pm ET) as the best angle with the Phillies sitting around –134. Aaron Nola is on the mound while St. Louis counters with Sonny Gray, whose 3.50 ERA hides a recent mini-slide (nine runs across his last 13 innings). Mark foresees a ‘slugging kind of day’ for Bryce Harper and company, noting the Cardinals’ bullpen owns one of MLB’s worst hard-contact rates over the last two weeks. Because the Phillies will be the home side, he prefers attacking the “to lead after 8½ innings / no bottom of the 9th” market at plus money, or laying the –1.5 run line if books hang a reasonable price. In short, he thinks Philly’s offense overpowers St. Louis and trusts Nola to work deep enough to hand a lead to Jeff Hoffman and Jose Alvarado.

Guy Boston advised taking Max Kepler under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑118 on BetMGM for the early Cardinals-Phillies game. He leaned on several Outlier trends: Kepler has stayed under this line in 7 of his last 10 outings (1.6 HRR average) and in 23 of 38 games this season (61% under rate). The matchup has been particularly poor for him—five straight unders versus St. Louis dating back to 2024 with just 0.4 HRR per meeting, including an 0-for-3 record already this year. Outlier also flags an 88% under rate across Kepler’s last eight games (0.9 HRR). Boston added that left-handed starter Eric Fedde is holding lefty bats to lower ERA, BA and wOBA, while Kepler’s own .229 average shows no platoon edge. All signals point to another quiet afternoon, so Boston is comfortable fading the veteran outfielder once more.

Dylan Rockford leaned to the over in the Aaron Nola–Sonny Gray nightcap, citing Citizens Bank Park’s friendly dimensions and a Phillies bullpen ranked bottom-10 in ERA. Philadelphia averages 5.3 runs per home game, and Rockford still questions Nola’s consistency despite solid surface stats. The Cardinals have quietly caught fire at the plate, hitting right-handers at a .261 clip and climbing above .500 in June. With both offenses trending up and only one reliable pen between them, he projected 9.2 runs and would bet over 8.5.

Kyle Purviance said Bryce Harper is a premium hitting-prop play when he faces Eric Fedde, recommending both RBI and walk markets. Purviance highlighted Harper’s dominant track record in the matchup: 27 prior plate appearances have produced six home runs and five walks. He stressed that Fedde’s nibbling approach makes at least one free pass "almost guaranteed," while Harper’s power gives bettors multiple paths to cash RBI tickets. Purviance suggested splitting a unit between Harper to record an RBI (currently +115) and over 0.5 walks (-105) rather than chasing the longer-odds homer prop, noting that the combination leverages both Fedde’s control issues and Harper’s ability to drive himself in. The tout framed the play as useful for single-game parlays, straight prop betting, and DFS one-off exposure in cash lineups.

The tout doubled down with an over play, noting both offenses are humming—St. Louis has plated 5+ runs in five of its last eight, while Philadelphia averages 5.3 runs at home. Fedde’s volatility (10 earned runs in the two starts before his most recent) and a Cardinals bullpen that has allowed 22 runs in the Phillies’ last five home games create a high-run environment. Overs have cashed in three of Fedde’s past four outings, so he expects another crooked scoreboard.

For Game 2 of the Cards-Phillies twin bill, Lindquist leaned to St. Louis on the moneyline because Sonny Gray is being priced as a significant underdog to Aaron Nola. Gray enters with a sub-2.50 ERA, the sixth-best K-BB% in baseball (20 %) and a .255 xwOBA allowed, while Nola’s strikeout rate has dipped below 23 % and his ground-ball rate is down eight points from last season. Lindquist wants confirmation that J.T. Realmuto catches Game 1 (likely DH in Game 2) before firing, but he expects the line to stay near +125 and thinks Gray’s current form justifies a play on the Redbirds.

Kenny G recommended playing the Philadelphia Phillies at -195 in the nightcap against St. Louis. He expects Cardinals starter Erick Fedde, who just threw a 118-pitch complete-game shutout, to regress on short rest and doubts a St. Louis bullpen that has a 3.97 ERA during the club’s nine-game win streak can keep it going. Philadelphia counters with unbeaten southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 2.11 ERA) and an offense that ranks 11th in runs, 7th in average and 4th in OBP, led by Trea Turner (.306) and Kyle Schwarber (14 HR). The Phillies are 13-7 at Citizens Bank Park, and even with their own shaky bullpen (4.68 ERA) Kenny believes the matchup favors Philly enough to snap the Cardinals’ streak. The price is too steep for his “massive lock,” but he still sees value in the moneyline.

Kyle Purviance said the best way to attack Phillies–Cardinals Game 2 is backing Sonny Gray in the first five innings at roughly +115. Purviance pointed out that Aaron Nola has looked shaky in three of his last four starts and Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA, making a full-game Cardinals ticket riskier. By isolating the first five, bettors get Gray—who owns a 2.11 ERA and has allowed just one homer all season—head-to-head with Nola while avoiding St. Louis’s equally dicey late-inning relief. Purviance added that the price is too good to pass up given Gray’s league-leading 29 % strikeout rate and the Cardinals’ recent 7-2 record in his outings.

Just A Bet Outside said Bryce Harper is an automatic target in any betting or DFS format tonight because he flat-out owns Eric Fedde. Harper is 11-for-22 lifetime off the right-hander with SIX home runs, giving him a .500 average and a comical 1.727 slugging percentage in the matchup. Fedde’s fastball has lost a tick of velocity this year and he is allowing a 44% hard-hit rate, while Harper comes in with a 92nd-percentile barrel rate and five homers in his last nine games. The tout framed it as the rare spot where a total-bases play, HR prop, or even a one-off DFS anchor all make sense thanks to Harper’s historical dominance, current hard-contact metrics, and the day game in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised laying the price with Philadelphia in game one of the twin bill. Jesús Luzardo (called Looserto on the pod) owns a 2.11 ERA (10th best) and 1.21 WHIP and has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one 2025 start; Philly has won four of his last five turns. Eric Fedde counters with a 5.98 career ERA vs. the Phillies and St. Louis is five games under .500 on the road. Current Cardinal hitters are slashing .182/.206/.222 in 22 at-bats against Luzardo. Add in Philadelphia’s 5-7 home record dominance (only seven losses all year) and the tout sees a clear edge for the Phils.

B Wade urged bettors to keep riding Alec Bohm’s single prop (over 0.5 singles). Bohm has recorded at least one single in nine straight outings and in 80 % of his last 20 games (9-of-10 most recent). The Phillies–Cardinals postponement kept the market dormant Tuesday, but Wade sees no reason to hop off given the consistency and even-money price being posted again for Wednesday’s makeup game.

Joe Pisapia said fantasy managers should be ready to jettison Jordan Walker after another 0-for-4, two-strikeout night dragged the 22-year-old’s slash line even lower. Pisapia expects St. Louis to option Walker before the weekend, noting it would be his third demotion in as many seasons. He argued the club can easily absorb the move because Brendan Donovan can shift to a corner spot while Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, and Alec Burleson all provide outfield depth. Pisapia added that Walker’s winter attempt to shorten his swing by bringing his hands inside has backfired—“everything is worse this year”—making a change of scenery or a “poop-for-poop” trade increasingly likely. In redraft leagues of 12 teams or fewer, Pisapia advised cutting Walker now rather than waiting for the inevitable transaction.

Drew Martin recommended laying –145 with the Phillies to snap St. Louis’s nine-game winning streak. He trusts Jesus Luzardo, who sports a 2.11 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 51 strikeouts and a 3-0 record, calling him their "bet-on" arm all season. Although Sonny Gray has solid topline stats, Martin noted his fastball velocity has dipped and his best recent outing came against the light-hitting Pirates. Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions plus Philadelphia’s deeper lineup (they out-hit the Cards 9-5 in Monday’s 3-2 loss) tilt the matchup toward the home side. Martin expects the superior starter and stickier offense to halt St. Louis’s run and cash the moneyline.

Guy Boston advised taking Max Kepler under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑140 on BetMGM. Kepler has failed to clear this number in seven of his last eight games and 23 of 38 overall (61%). Against the Cardinals he is 0-for-11 in three meetings this season and has averaged only 0.4 HRR in his last five head-to-head matchups. He now draws Sonny Gray, who has been lethal versus left-handed hitters: 1.69 ERA, .213 batting average allowed, 0.8 HR/9 and .274 wOBA over 85 batters. Kepler’s own .229 average stays flat regardless of pitcher handedness, leaving little ceiling. Boston labeled it “phenomenal data across the board” for the under.

Lonte Smith prefers the total in the Cards-Phils clash, grabbing over 7.5. His case rests on recent volatility from Sonny Gray and the hittability—if not vulnerability—of Jesus Luzardo. Gray has surrendered 10 earned runs and 22 hits across his last three appearances, and Smith noted a spike in hard-hit balls (42 percent) that coincides with a slight velo dip. Luzardo owns a sparkling ERA but still allows plenty of contact (8.4 H/9) and has given up at least six hits in three straight despite dodging the long ball. Philly’s bats are rolling at home (5.1 runs per game) and Smith thinks the Cards’ offense, which just averaged 5.5 runs in Washington, can contribute enough to clear the relatively low number. Add in a mid-70s forecast with a light wind out to right and two bullpens he pegs as merely league-average, and Smith expects crooked numbers on both sides.

Malcolm Bamford advised playing the Phillies at –150 against the surging Cardinals despite St. Louis riding an eight-game heater. He trusts lefty Jesus Luzardo—2.11 ERA over his last 25.2 innings, five earned allowed total—to neutralize a Cards lineup that fattened up on a weak Washington staff last weekend. Philadelphia is 13-6 at Citizens Bank Park and 7-3 in its last ten overall, giving Bamford confidence the home field will matter. While Sonny Gray brings name value, Bamford pointed out that Gray’s career 3.41 ERA versus Philadelphia is merely solid, not dominant, and the Philly offense has elevated its walk rate to 10.2 percent this month, a profile that can run up Gray’s pitch count. With the bullpens roughly even and the price still south of –160, Bamford believes bettors are getting a fair tag on the better team, in better current form, behind the hotter arm.

Lindquist circled Ivan Herrera’s over 1.5 total bases prop for Tuesday in Philadelphia, noting the rookie catcher has been the Cardinals’ loudest bat all season—54.5% hard-hit rate and a .779 expected slugging that sits 260 points clear of anyone else on the roster. The matchup sweetens the deal: a left-handed starter (Lindquist referenced Jesus Luzardo’s 26.6% K-rate / .296 xwOBA profile) and a hitter-friendly weather forecast with the wind blowing out toward left at Citizens Bank Park. He warned bettors to double-check the rain projections—there’s a 90% chance of precipitation—but if the game plays he likes Herrera to drive something into the gap or over the fence. Anything at plus money on the 1.5-base line is actionable for him.

Kenny G backed the Cardinals +130 to keep their nine-game heater alive. St. Louis has jumped to ninth in runs and third in OBP and now hands the ball to Sonny Gray, who is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA and coming off seven shutout innings (8 K, 2 H) versus Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Philadelphia counters with Jesus Luzardo (2.11 ERA) but the left-hander rarely tops six innings, forcing the Phillies’ bullpen — bottom-nine with a 4.62 ERA — to cover high-leverage frames. Kenny noted St. Louis’ bullpen has quietly trimmed its ERA to 3.97 and that the Cards have scored 3, 6, 4 and 10 in their last four despite winning Tuesday with only three. With Philly’s relief woes and the Cardinals’ momentum, Kenny felt plus money was too generous to pass up.

His final play was the under. Their early-season series averaged just 4.7 runs and cashed under in all three games, including two Cardinal shutouts. The under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 head-to-head. Philadelphia has scored three or fewer in two of its last three, and Gray just blanked Pittsburgh for seven frames. Luzardo has had minor hiccups at home but continues to strand runners (47 IP, only 11 ER). With both rotations in form and neither offense clicking, the tout expects another tight, low-scoring battle.

The tout also recommended playing the full-game under, leaning on both recent form and historical data. These clubs averaged just 4.7 total runs in their first three meetings and the under is now 8-1-1 in the last 10 head-to-head clashes. He stressed that Citizens Bank Park’s run environment plummets at night in early May (park factor drops from 1.11 to 0.94 after 7 PM according to Statcast). Sonny Gray is coming off his best start of the season and sports a 33% whiff rate on his sweeper, while "Loserdo" has limited opponents to a .197 average with men on base. Neither lineup is red-hot—Philadelphia has produced 11 barrels in its last four games, St. Louis only nine—so he projects both starters working at least six frames before two average bullpens take over. With all these ingredients plus a weather forecast calling for a 6-mph in-blowing breeze, he expects another 3-2 or 4-1 type contest that stays comfortably below the posted total.

Just A Bet Outside suggested avoiding Bryce Harper in DFS and under-prop markets because of a brutal individual history against Sonny Gray. Harper is just 3-for-20 with nine strikeouts versus the Cardinals right-hander, accounting for a paltry .150 average and 45% K-rate. With Gray coming off an eight-strikeout, seven-inning shutout of Pittsburgh and flashing vintage command, the host expects Harper’s struggles to continue and prefers spending salary elsewhere or taking Harper unders on hits, total bases, or RBI.

While rolling through his daily hitter chart, Just A Bet Outside flagged Trea Turner as a strong DFS and total-bases prop option. Turner is 9-for-23 lifetime (.391) versus Sonny Gray with plenty of hard contact, and Gray has allowed a .300+ batting average to right-handed hitters this year. The host likes Turner’s combination of platoon edge, elite speed for extra fantasy points, and proven success against Gray to anchor Phillies stacks or one-offs on Monday’s 15-game slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled-down on his earlier position and again backed the Phillies money line, this time focusing on new pitching angles. He acknowledged Sonny Gray’s (mislabeled as Jon Gray in the database) dominant outing last week but still prefers Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park, noting that home favorites win 61% of the time in this exact −145 to −160 price band. He pointed out that Jesus "Loserdo"—his nickname for the Phillies’ left-hander—has stranded 78% of base runners and owns a 2.94 FIP over his last six starts despite a couple of crooked innings at home. Philadelphia’s offense has been hit-or-miss (three runs or fewer in two of the last three) yet still ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate, while St. Louis has managed only 10 runs across the entire season series. With the Cards bullpen posting a 5.11 ERA on the road and Philly’s relief corps sitting at 3.28 in May, he expects the late innings to tilt the game toward the Phillies once Gray exits.

Despite the Cardinals riding a nine-game heater, Cash Out Sports Picks took the Phillies money line. He cited Philadelphia’s championship-caliber roster and home-field edge, plus lefty "Loserdo" (implied Jesus Luzardo-type profile) giving up only 11 ER in 47 IP with 51 strikeouts. The Cards’ Jon Gray is pitching well (3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, seven scoreless vs Pittsburgh last time), but the tout trusts the Phillies lineup to scrape enough against him and end St. Louis’ streak at Citizens Bank Park.

B Wade recommended Alec Bohm over 0.5 singles, calling him "bread and butter" for this market. Bohm has registered at least one single in 16 of his last 20 games and eight straight contests. Lifetime vs Sonny Gray he is 5-for-11 (.455). Remarkably, 19 of his last 20 games with a hit featured at least one single, and he’s averaging more than one single per game in that span. Wade highlighted the consistency and matchup splits to justify taking the over despite Gray’s solid surface stats.

B Wade advised taking Trea Turner over 0.5 singles at –130 despite facing ace Sonny Gray. Turner owns a .381 average against Gray over 21 at-bats, suggesting he sees Gray’s arsenal well. Turner has produced at least one single in 16 of his last 20 games and 10 of his last 11 (90% hit rate). Wade contrasted that with the implied 58-60% probability baked into the –130 price, calling the 30-plus-point gap a textbook edge. He emphasized that Turner’s frequent opposite-field contact patterns make him a high-floor single hitter even against elite pitching.

Just A Bet Outside advised buying Alec Bohm in hit, total-bases, or DFS markets despite facing Sonny Gray. Bohm owns a hit in nine of his last ten games and 17 of his last twenty, including 12 of the last 13 at Citizens Bank Park. He has multi-hit efforts in four of the past seven and is batting .350 over the last two weeks. The kicker: Bohm is 5-for-11 lifetime off Gray, giving him the best history among Philadelphia bats against the Cardinals ace. Given Bohm’s recent 1.059 OPS and Gray’s slight vulnerability to right-handed hard contact this season, the host expects the third baseman to extend his streak and sees value at over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI or 1.5 total bases.

JD Bets recommended betting Cristopher Sanchez to issue more than 1.5 walks. Sanchez is averaging exactly 2.0 free passes per start on the season and has handed out three in each of his last two outings. St. Louis is one of MLB’s most disciplined lineups, drawing 3.9 walks per game (top-5) while striking out very little. The Cardinals’ recent eight-game win streak has been fueled by patient at-bats, and JD noted that Sanchez’s underlying numbers show some wildness, including a 3-walk ceiling in four of his last five appearances. With strikeout numbers low in the historical matchup and no glaring power threats, he expects St. Louis to grind counts and force at least two walks from the left-hander.

Scott Reichel advocated playing Cristopher Sánchez under 2.5 earned runs (or 1.5 where posted), stating that "he’s just nasty at home" and that the show has "backed him all year." Although the Cardinals have improved against left-handed pitching, Reichel still trusts Sánchez in Citizens Bank Park, where his stuff plays up and his season-long ERA sits comfortably below three. Reichel viewed the earned-run market as preferable to strikeouts or pitching outs because St. Louis can make contact but struggles to string together damage. He ultimately left the pick off the official Underdog entry due to correlation rules with Matthew Liberatore, yet reiterated it as a standalone wager worth firing on traditional books.

Adam Rosenberg relayed that the Rhythm model and his own handicap like Matthew Liberatore over 17.5 outs at +115. Liberatore has a sparkling 1.88 ERA across his last five starts and has completed six innings in four of them, working up to 95 pitches. Rosenberg highlighted situational edges: Philadelphia played a Sunday night game, traveled, and mustered only three runs yesterday, ranking 23rd in wRC+ versus lefties this month. The Cardinals’ bullpen was stretched in an extra-inning loss, giving manager Oliver Marmol every incentive to let Liberatore push deep. All signs point to the young southpaw logging a full six frames, making the plus-money outs prop the ‘robot play’ of the day.

Adam Rosenberg told listeners to sprinkle Nick Castellanos’ home-run prop against Matthew Liberatore, calling it one of his perennial “road-lefty mashes.” Although Castellanos has not left the yard since May 6, Rosenberg pointed out that his max-exit-velocity is still in the 92nd percentile this month and his .300 ISO versus southpaws in 2025 mirrors previous seasons. Liberatore has allowed seven of his ten homers this year to right-handed bats and carries a lifetime 1.30 HR/9. Rosenberg likes the plus-475 range available in the market and noted that Busch Stadium plays neutral for right-handed pull power, so one well-timed swing can cash the ticket.

Scott Reichel bet Bryce Harper UNDER 0.5 runs scored at –120. Harper has failed to cross the plate in four of his last five games and in 13 of his last 18 overall despite the Phillies’ strong offense. Against the Cardinals he has gone scoreless in six of the last eight meetings. St. Louis starter Matthew Liberatore has a 1.88 ERA over his past five outings, and Harper is just 1-for-7 lifetime off the lefty. Reichel views the combination of Harper’s muted on-base production and Liberatore’s current form as reason to fade Harper’s run prop.

Lonte Smith prefers the First 5 Under 4.5 (−115) in Cardinals-Phillies. Both starters have been dealing: Liberatore has gone 6+ innings in six of seven and St. Louis’ bullpen sports a 2.87 ERA, while Ranger Sanchez has surrendered three or fewer in five straight. Lonte fears late fireworks from the Phillies lineup, so he isolates the opening five frames, expecting each pitcher to work deep and limit bullpen exposure. As a sprinkle he will take Cardinals full-game moneyline, trusting Liberatore to steal one, but the primary edge is the early under.

Both clubs are barreling the baseball right now. The Cardinals have scored five-plus in six of their last eight, pouring in 20 runs over the weekend in Washington, while Philly averages 5.2 runs over its last 10 and nearly 5.5 per game at home. Neither bullpen offers safety – St. Louis relievers hold a 4.10 ERA and Philadelphia’s sit at an even uglier 4.66. Cash Out Sports Picks therefore played the full-game over, expecting run production to continue once the starters exit.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out several angles backing Philadelphia. Citizens Bank Park has been a fortress – the Phils have dropped only six home games all season and have won five of their last six overall. Matthew Liberatore’s 5.06 road ERA makes St. Louis vulnerable, while Christopher Sanchez has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in five straight starts and sports a 2-0 career record (2.93 ERA) versus the Cards. Philadelphia is 5-1 in his last six turns and five of those wins came by multiple runs, underscoring the matchup edge.

Kenny G said the plus-155 price on St. Louis is too tempting to pass up. He trusts Matthew Liberatore after the lefty limited the Phillies to one earned run over 6.1 innings in their May 12th meeting. Since then the Cardinals’ sticks have heated up, posting 6, 4 and 10 runs while climbing to 4th in MLB in batting average (.261). He also noted travel fatigue for Philadelphia, who played Sunday night in Cleveland and own a shaky 4.66 bullpen ERA that could be exposed once Cristopher Sanchez exits. Although Sanchez sports a 2.89 ERA, Kenny pointed out his mediocre 5-to-3 K/BB in that prior start versus the Cards and warned that both clubs trend Over at their respective venues (STL 11-8-1, PHI 11-8), hinting at late-inning variance that favors the dog. Bottom line: in a matchup he expected near pick-em, the red-hot Cardinals are getting +155, making them his preferred side even if not officially labeled “Dog of the Day.”

Scott Reichel is willing to swallow the juice and play Phillies −1.5 (+115). Ranger Sanchez has been lights-out (4-1, 2.89 ERA, and five straight quality starts), while Matthew Liberatore’s surface ERA is tidy but his 11% K-rate and 4.31 xFIP suggest blow-up potential. Philadelphia’s offense just swept a road trip 4-1 and owns MLB’s second-best wRC+ against lefties. With Sanchez routinely pitching into the seventh, Scott trusts the Phils’ rested bullpen to cover the final outs and turn a tight game into a multi-run win.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed St. Louis at +158 because the scheduling spot and matchup both favor the Cards. Philadelphia is flying home after a Sunday-night game in Cleveland, a well-known fade spot the tout has tracked for two years, while St. Louis had a short hop up from Washington. On the mound, Matthew Liberatore has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, owns a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, and already blanked the Phils for six innings with seven K’s earlier this month. Underlying metrics back it up: 84th-percentile xERA, 95th-percentile walk rate, 81st-percentile chase rate. Christopher Sanchez is solid but more vulnerable to right-handed bats (.257 AVG, .410 SLG) and stranded 90 % of baserunners when he faced the Cards last time—numbers the host expects to regress. St. Louis has quietly climbed to 14th in wRC+ vs lefties and leads MLB in walk rate (13.7%) over the past three weeks, giving them paths to pressure Sanchez and a Phillies bullpen that used both Alvarado and Romano on Sunday. With comparable pitching, fresher travel legs, and a live offense full of righty bats, the tout called the +158 money line “value too good to pass.”