Guy Boston identified Tommy Pham as a potential under candidate on his Hits, Runs, and RBI line today. While still awaiting full background research, he noted this play as one of his early candidate props. Given his previous methodology, we can infer he's relying on matchup data against Erick Fedde and recent struggles in Pham's offensive production to think he will remain below the 1.5 mark in hits, runs, and RBIs.

Guy Boston is skeptical of Mitch Keller's ability to limit damage against the Cardinals. Keller has previously struggled significantly against strong opponents, notably getting shelled by the Yankees (7 earned runs in just 3.2 innings with 12 batters reaching base). Additionally, Keller relies predominantly on his fastball, a pitch the Cardinals have excelled at this season, currently ranking second in MLB in runs above average facing fastballs. With this unfavorable matchup paired with Keller's historical inconsistency, he expects Keller to struggle and therefore leans towards the Cardinals' offense performing well today.

JD Bets recommends backing St. Louis Cardinals on the money line against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He highlights Mitch Keller's recent struggles, giving up seven earned runs against the Yankees and six against Boston, while facing the league-leading Cardinals offense that ranks number one in hits per game, number three in runs, and number five in home runs over their last 10 games. Although Erick Fedde isn't spectacular, the Cardinals' significant offensive advantage justifies taking their money line.

Joe Osborne is betting Lars Nootbaar over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Nootbaar has performed strongly to start the season, reaching this number in seven of his first ten games. Osborne pointed to Nootbaar's excellent history against Keller, owning a career OPS of 1.217 with five walks in 15 at-bats. Mitch Keller struggled significantly against the Yankees last time out, giving up seven runs and allowing 12 total base runners in just 3.2 innings. Osborne additionally highlighted the Pirates' bullpen woes, ranking bottom-third in ERA and FIP, offering further optimism that Nootbaar succeeds offensively in this matchup.

Kenny G anticipates Mitch Keller having a bounce-back performance today against the St. Louis Cardinals. Keller had an excellent outing versus the Marlins to open the season, allowing just one run in six innings, but struggled badly against the Yankees, giving up seven runs and four walks in only three and two-thirds innings. Kenny G expects Keller to pitch better today, reasoning that consecutive poor starts are unlikely and noting that while the Cardinals have started hot offensively, they aren't the same elite caliber lineup as the Yankees. Keller's potential resurgence, despite a shaky recent outing, makes him an interesting consideration today.

Kingpin advocated for betting Mitch Keller to surpass 5.5 strikeouts, citing Keller’s strikeout-per-inning rate from last year and his strong 8-strikeout opening start in 2025. Despite facing a dangerous Cardinals lineup featuring Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, St. Louis also includes hitters prone to striking out. Keller’s history of generating swings-and-misses positions him favorably to reach or exceed 6 strikeouts, offering substantial prop betting and fantasy upside even without securing a win.

Daniel Kohn noted caution around Mitch Keller, who is slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh against St. Louis. Although Keller performed adequately in his season opener, allowing just one earned run over six innings, he carries a concerning 7.45 ERA after having a poor outing. While his historical ERA against the Cardinals (3.72 ERA in 13 starts) is decent, Keller's uneven recent performances and elevated ERA raise concerns about how effective he'll truly be. The projection suggests potential vulnerability against a Cardinals lineup featuring hot bats, especially Brendan Donovan.

Daniel Kohn highlighted Erick Fedde's historical success against Pittsburgh as an encouraging angle despite his recent struggles. Fedde boasts a career ERA of 2.81 and a 1-0 record over three starts against the Pirates. Although he endured a rough recent outing in a 13-9 loss at Boston, Fedde's previous strong start this season—six innings of one-run ball against Minnesota—combined with his proven track record of solid performances versus Pittsburgh, provides a promising rationale to back the Cardinals at their favorable betting odds (-118).

Daniel Kohn emphasized Isiah Kiner-Falefa's consistent production ahead of the matchup with the Cardinals. Kiner-Falefa has logged hits in eight of his past 10 games, posting a solid .316 batting average with six runs scored and four RBI thus far this season. He showed particular strength in Monday’s game against St. Louis, going 2-for-4 with two runs and two RBI. Historically, Kiner-Falefa has thrived when facing the Cardinals, batting an impressive .405 in 12 career games versus St. Louis, which positions him as a valuable target in DFS lineups or prop markets for Wednesday.

Daniel Kohn highlighted Brendan Donovan as a key asset for the St. Louis Cardinals in their matchup against the Pirates. Donovan has been red-hot, recording three consecutive multi-hit games, including a 3-for-4 performance with an RBI in Monday's game and another multi-hit effort Tuesday. Through 11 games, he is batting an exceptional .395 with three doubles, two home runs, and already 10 RBI. Given his current form and the consistency he has demonstrated in recent contests, Donovan is positioned well to continue his offensive surge against the Pirates.

Greg Peterson recommends betting the under on the Cardinals vs Pirates total set at 8. His reasoning emphasizes Mitch Keller's significant home-road splits. Keller has posted a far superior ERA at home (4.15 with 0.9 HR/9) compared to his struggles away from Pittsburgh (5.14 ERA, 1.3 HR/9). Additionally, the Pirates offense provided little support, averaging just over 3.6 runs per game entering Tuesday following a season ranked 24th in runs per game. Erick Fedde for St. Louis started strong this season (1 run over 6 innings vs. Twins), but was roughed up against Boston recently. However, Fedde has noticeably improved since his return from the KBO, lowering his HR/9 allowed from 1.5 to 1.1 and walk rates from 3.8 walks/9 to 2.7. Given Keller's tenure at home, lackluster Pirates scoring, and Fedde’s improvement, Peterson sees value in under 8 runs.

Ben Rasa likes the betting value on the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at -130 against the St. Louis Cardinals. He emphasizes Paul Skenes' pitching advantage at home, calling attention to Skenes' elite potential and strong performances despite his somewhat inferior home ERA last year, still well within the low two's. Ben expressed high confidence Skeens delivers a quality start against a Cardinals lineup he doesn't view as particularly strong. Conversely, he sees Sonny Gray as vulnerable on the road with his ERA over 5.00 last season, suggesting the Pirates bats are heating up after consecutive strong performances versus the Yankees and Cardinals. He recommends betting at -130 but cautions strongly against betting if odds reach -140 or worse.

Jesse Schule recommended betting over 6.5 strikeouts for Sonny Gray as a player prop. Schule highlighted the Pirates' league-worst strikeout issues, currently averaging 10 Ks per game. Gray himself has 13 strikeouts through his first 11 innings this year and historically pitches well against Pittsburgh, whose current lineup only hits .235 with 27 Ks in 81 at-bats against him. Cold weather conditions and a low total at 6.5 runs further suggest a pitcher's advantage.

Jesse Schule recommended taking the Pirates' team total under 3.5 runs against St. Louis. His reasoning includes the Pirates' current slump, striking out at the highest rate in MLB, a troubling matchup against Cardinals' starter Sonny Gray who has strong historical numbers against them, and adverse weather conditions expected to suppress scoring. The total run line of 6.5 already suggests a low-scoring pitchers' duel, enhancing Schule's confidence in taking the under for Pittsburgh.

Jesse Schule advised against backing the Pirates in the first five innings, despite ace Paul Skeens pitching. Schule emphasized Pittsburgh's weak recent form, losing six of their last seven games and leading MLB in strikeouts at 10 per game this season, reflecting last year's trend as well. The Pirates are facing a Cardinals lineup in stellar form, ranking third in scoring, batting .297 as a team, and first overall in team batting average and on-base percentage. Schule believes this combination of factors creates a problematic matchup even with Skeens' excellent early-season numbers (1-0, 1.46 ERA, 0.65 WHIP).

Kingpin is bullish on rookie phenom Paul Skenes surpassing 7.5 strikeouts in his start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Skenes has showcased elite strikeout ability early in his career with high-90s fastball velocity and a devastating slider. The Cardinals' lineup has not faced him frequently, making Skenes’ excellent stuff even more effective and positioning him to easily hit 8 or more strikeouts in this matchup.

Kyle Purviance sees value in betting the Cardinals as an underdog (+115) against the Pirates despite acknowledging that Paul Skenes is a slightly superior pitcher to Sonny Gray. He reasoned the Cardinals lineup—highlighting recent hot bats including Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ivan Herrera—is clearly superior to Pittsburgh's, offsetting Pittsburgh's advantage on the mound. Purviance believes the two teams' pitching gaps and hitting gaps balance out evenly enough to justify backing the underdog Cardinals at plus money.

Stats Insider recommends betting the Pirates moneyline at odds of 1.74, highlighting their projected 56% win probability against the Cardinals' 44%. A key factor to back this wager is the sizable advantage Pittsburgh has in pitching. The Pirates' starter Paul Skenes holds an impressive 1.46 ERA compared to Cardinals' Sonny Gray who has struggled, posting a 5.73 ERA. This glaring pitching discrepancy gives the Pirates significant edge, making them a valuable play in the matchup.

Derek Farnsworth highlighted rookie phenom Paul Skenes as an excellent DFS pitching option against the Cardinals. Skenes brings an elite 33% strikeout rate and an exceptional 1.13 xERA into his home matchup vs. St. Louis, a team with limited offensive upside (3.00 implied runs total) against right-handed starters. Farnsworth also cited the favorable Vegas line (-132) and a surprisingly low 6.5-run total as indicators of Skenes' potential ceiling performance, making him a clear high-upside target for fantasy baseball lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Eric Lindquist liked taking Pittsburgh Pirates on the first five innings moneyline (-140) due to Paul Skenes' strong start to the season and favorable pitching matchup against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a concerning 53.8% hard-hit rate. Skenes has impressive underlying metrics, including only a 20.7% hard-hit rate and a dominant 29.5% strikeout rate. Additionally, the absence of Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera, who had been one of their best hitters early in the season, drastically weakens St. Louis' lineup. Lindquist expressed significant trust in Skenes at this price with key offensive pieces missing from St. Louis.

Michael Savio recommended betting the Cardinals moneyline at +115 odds against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He highlighted the Cardinals' potent offense, currently leading MLB in batting average and ranking top-five in runs scored. Savio acknowledged the excellent early-season form of opposing pitcher Paul Skenes, the reigning Rookie of the Year, who has a strong historical ERA of 1.31 against St. Louis. However, despite Skenes' dominance, the lack of offensive depth from Pittsburgh and a struggling start from star Bryan Reynolds (.182 average) leave the Pirates vulnerable. Savio believes Pittsburgh's limited run support has historically enveloped Skenes in tough-luck losses (0-2 despite stellar pitching last season vs St. Louis), thus providing advantageous value for backing the Cardinals at positive odds.

Kody Malstrom recommends betting under 0.5 runs in the first inning for the Cardinals vs Pirates game primarily based on the dominant performance of Paul Skenes. Entering his second season, Skenes continues his impressive form from last year's near-Cy Young campaign with an elite 1.46 ERA, 0.649 WHIP, and 1.46 FIP. His efficiency this season has been exceptional, averaging under one hit allowed per inning pitched while consistently striking out more than one batter per inning. Despite facing a formidable Cardinals offense ranked top-4 in hits, RBIs, total runs, and OBP, Skenes should be able to keep them quiet early. Additionally, the Cardinals lineup features a notable weak spot at the top of the order with Willson Contreras struggling badly, hitting just .105, increasing Skenes' odds of getting through the first inning without damage. On the other side, Sonny Gray, though carrying a high ERA of 5.73 due to early-season struggles, has managed a respectable WHIP of 1.000, suggesting poor luck rather than ineffectiveness. He faces a Pirates offense that struggles to consistently make contact at league-average rates, making it likely he also keeps them scoreless through the first.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends taking the Pittsburgh Pirates ATS (-1.5 runs) against the Cardinals. Their confidence stems from Pittsburgh starting ace Paul Skenes, who has been dominant with a sparkling 1.46 ERA and coming off seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in his last outing against Tampa. On the contrary, the Cardinals' rotation ranks worst in the National League, evidenced by their high-scoring games—hitting the OVER in eight of ten contests so far. They expect these pitching mismatches to continue as Sonny Gray (5.73 ERA) takes the mound for St. Louis. Gray gave up five earned runs and five hits over six innings in his last appearance against the Angels, creating a scenario where the Pirates should comfortably cover the spread.

Guy Boston identified Tommy Pham as a noteworthy fade today, suggesting an under bet (1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs). He referenced Pham’s poor trends and lower hit rate on the season thus far, emphasizing this as the only notable player prop he sees actionable value in for this game.

Guy Boston advised backing the Cardinals today against the Pirates, despite the team's recent four-game losing streak against the Boston Red Sox. He stressed the Cardinals offense remains impressive against right-handed pitching, ranking first in batting average and fourth in wRC+ so far this season. He highlighted the favorable matchup against Pittsburgh starter Carmen Mlodzinski, who heavily uses fastballs and sliders, pitches that St. Louis bats notably hit well. Although Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore had a tough first start against the Angels, Guy Boston felt confident that Pittsburgh’s weaker lineup presents a manageable challenge. He recommends the Cardinals moneyline and also sees value in their team total over 3.5 runs, noting they have hit this threshold in every game this season.

Mike Spector likes the Pirates' moneyline (+106), emphasizing Pittsburgh’s elite speed and aggressiveness on the bases—they lead MLB with 20 stolen bases through just over a week into the season. Facing Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore, who struggles to generate whiffs (ranking in the second percentile in whiff percentage) and allows a high expected batting average, the Pirates should have ample opportunity to wreak havoc. The Cardinals also enter at a schedule disadvantage, arriving late into Pittsburgh following a Sunday night doubleheader against the Red Sox, taxing their bullpen heavily, which further benefits the Pirates' chances.

Kenny G recommended betting on the Cardinals at -125 against the Pirates, highlighting St. Louis as due for a bounce-back. He noted the Cardinals' offense remains red-hot, ranking fourth in MLB in runs and first in batting average despite losing two straight at Boston due to pitching issues. Facing Carmen Mlodzinski, who got roughed up for four runs in 3.2 innings versus Tampa Bay, presents a favorable matchup. Kenny believes Matthew Liberatore, despite an uneven first outing (three earned runs over six innings vs Angels), has the potential to improve in this spot against the league's 27th-ranked Pittsburgh attack.

Data Skrive draws attention to Ivan Herrera as a sneaky home run prop candidate at +750 vs. Pittsburgh. Herrera has registered an unexpectedly strong power display early in the season, hitting four home runs in just seven games, achieving a notable 28.6% home run rate. With these intriguing under-the-radar stats and higher odds, Herrera presents substantial betting value in Monday's matchup.

Malcolm Bamford takes Pittsburgh as his 'little puppy' underdog pick against St. Louis following the Cardinals playing a taxing doubleheader on Sunday. He emphasizes that he's generally low on St. Louis, and believes the scheduling scenario heavily favors Pittsburgh, who played a single game, won in extra innings, and remain at home with rest. He finds value backing the Pirates at home behind Carmen Mlodzinski, expecting their confidence gained from Sunday's win combined with fresh pitching will propel them past a fatigued Cardinals squad.

Malcolm Bamford sees this as a prime opportunity to bet Pittsburgh to beat the Cardinals due mainly to the scheduling scenario. The Cardinals are coming off a difficult doubleheader against Boston, including an extra-innings loss, and now must travel immediately to play Pittsburgh. Bamford believes this is a classic fatigue and travel spot that will disadvantage St. Louis. While acknowledging Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles this year, he highlights Pittsburgh’s fresher bullpen and recent extra-innings victory boosting their confidence. With St. Louis facing fatigue and pitching concerns, he identifies the Pirates as strong underdog value at plus 105.