JD Bets played the Mets moneyline at -160 with Kodai Senga facing Zac Gallen. He highlighted Arizona’s lineup going 3-for-20 lifetime against Senga, saying "Gallen has owned them." New York owns modest top-10 strikeout avoidance and better recent batted-ball metrics than the slumping Diamondbacks. Citi Field’s weather looks dry compared to the rain-plagued slate, giving the home club a cleaner path to nine full at-bats. With the pitching edge, home-field advantage, and an Arizona offense that just scored four runs total in its last three games, JD is comfortable laying the short price.

Dylan Rockford hammered the Mets –1.5 at +145, noting that New York is a blistering 13-1 at home while Kodai Senga sports a 1.26 ERA and has yet to allow an earned run in two Citi Field starts. Senga’s heavy ground-ball profile pairs with a top-10 Mets bullpen to create nine innings of run prevention, whereas Arizona drags a bottom-10 relief corps and Zac Gallen has cratered to a 5.57 ERA over his last four outings. With the Mets offense hitting .258 and Citi Field “rocking,” Rockford priced New York at –155 on the moneyline and sees the plus-money run line as the sharper angle.

Lindquist played the Mets –1.5 runs, noting that Zac Gallen has not looked like himself lately while New York’s bats are scorching. Kodai Senga’s forkball and cutter historically neutralize left-handed hitters such as Corbin Carroll and Pavin Smith, and Arizona’s lineup carries several 24–28 % strike-out rates. With Gallen’s fastball command shaky and the Mets on a multi-game heater, he likes laying the run and a half for plus juice.

Mark’s first official best bet is Mets –1.5 at +145. Kodai Senga carries a 1.26 ERA into Citi Field while Zac Gallen is 1-4 with an ERA near six and an inflated 10% walk rate. Arizona arrives after a tough road swing and owns a –16 run differential away from home. Mark expects New York’s top-10 wRC+ vs RHP to push the game over the 7.5 total and cash both the run line and the Mets team total over.

Joe Pisapia urged listeners to scoop up Eduardo Rodriguez immediately after the lefty was tagged for eight earned by the Mets. Despite the blow-up, Rodriguez owns underlying numbers that scream positive regression: xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all lower than his surface ERA, his strikeout rate has spiked, and Statcast shows healthier whiff rates on every pitch. Pisapia emphasized that Citi Field’s loaded lineup is an outlier matchup and that Rodriguez’s fastball and sinker are posting 30 % K-rates while sliders and changeups lag, creating a quirky but fixable pitch-split profile. The poor box score should make him cheaper in trade talks or even available on waivers, making now the ideal window to pounce before the correction comes.

Welsh reminded listeners that Kevin Ginkel is back from the IL and is immediately worth a speculative pickup in save-plus-hold or deeper roto formats. Arizona’s bullpen has been “embarrassingly bad,” and Andrew Saalfrank has blown two of the last three chances. With AJ Puk still working his way back, Ginkel—who converted 11 of 13 saves with a 31% K-rate last season—could reclaim ninth-inning duties within a week. Welsh recommended grabbing him now before a potential save this weekend forces a FAAB bidding war.

B Wade said to take Francisco Lindor over 1.5 total bases because the short-stop has been a different animal at Citi Field. Lindor has cleared this number in 5 straight home games and in 8 of 10 overall at home, an 80 percent hit rate. Over his last 20 contests he has cashed 55 percent of the time and has missed only three times in his last ten. The matchup adds value: he faces Zack Gallen, who is sitting on a 5.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP to start the season—far from ace form. Getting plus money on the prop makes it a pure value play in Wade’s eyes.

Kenny G said bettors should lay the –155 with the Mets at home against Arizona. He expects Kodai Senga (3-1, 1.26 ERA) to bounce back after a tough-luck no-decision versus Washington and notes that New York’s bullpen still owns a 3.05 ERA despite recent injuries, so Senga should hand off a lead to a trustworthy unit. On the other side, Zac Gallen is sitting at 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA and was tagged for three earned in five innings by Atlanta last time out; Kenny argued the Mets’ eighth-ranked offense in runs and slugging—highlighted by Pete Alonso’s power surge—can put crooked numbers on Gallen and then feast on a Diamondbacks pen that carries a 4.46 ERA. He also pointed out the Mets are an MLB-best 13-1 at Citi Field while Arizona is just 7-6 on the road. Add it up and Kenny trusts New York’s combination of frontline pitching and hot bats to justify the moderate price.

Final Round likes Pete Alonso to stay hot against Zac Gallen. The Polar Bear is 2-for-3 (.667) off Gallen and has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 15 outings. Consider Alonso for hit or total-bases props, or as a power upside dart in HR markets.

It's The Final Round flagged Francisco Lindor as a value play against Zac Gallen. Lindor owns a .314 average (11-for-35, 2 HR) versus four-seamers, the pitch Gallen throws 35% of the time and allows a .333 BA and 2 HR on. Lindor is batting 1.000 (2-for-2) off knuckle curves and .429 (3-for-7, 2 HR) off cutters; Gallen’s knuckle curve is getting tagged for .316 and his seldom-used cutter an ugly .600 (3-for-5). Small head-to-head sample favors Lindor (2-for-3 lifetime, .667). The Mets shortstop has logged at least one hit in 22 of his last 26 games. Final Round likes Lindor to record a hit or exceed 1.5 total bases and even considers a sprinkle on a HR prop given the matchup.

Just A Bet Outside said Francisco Lindor is a stand-alone "1+ hit" target worth playing even outside the Duran parlay. Lindor has recorded at least one knock in 16 of his last 20 games and in 20 of 24 when hitting left-handed versus righties this season, posting a .311 average in that split. He now draws Zac Gallen, who owns a 4.32 ERA with only one quality start in six tries and is allowing a .303 average and .545 slugging to left-handed bats compared to .164/.295 to right-handers. Gallen has yielded roughly a hit per inning and has given up three or more earned runs in four of those six starts. Lindor himself is 3-for-10 off Gallen from prior seasons when the pitcher was in better form. JABO added that the Diamondbacks bullpen is stretched, so Lindor should have additional chances if he does not cash early. At plus-100 in the two-leg parlay, the tout argued Lindor’s leg alone rates closer to –180 based on his recent hit rate and Gallen’s ugly platoon splits, making it a strong betting angle for Thursday’s slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the Over, pointing out that the total has gone over in six straight Arizona games, four of the last five Diamondbacks road contests, and five of the last six meetings in New York. Six of the last seven Mets-Dbacks clashes overall have eclipsed the number. With Gallen’s ERA sitting at 5.57 and Citi Field’s recent series opener producing 11 runs, the tout anticipates enough combined offense, especially once bullpens enter, to push the score past the posted mark.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed plus money with Arizona because Zac Gallen owns All-Star caliber stuff and historically neutralizes the Mets, holding their lineup to a .227 average with 21 strikeouts in 88 at-bats. Kodai Senga has been stingy (4 ER in 28.2 IP), but the tout believes Gallen is due for a statistical correction to his early 5.57 ERA. With New York laying a premium price after an 8-3 series-opening win, the tout sees situational value on the Diamondbacks to steal the getaway game.

Ed Scimia recommended taking the Mets -1.5 at +150, arguing Citi Field’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus Kodai Senga’s form create a two-run cushion. Senga owns a 1.26 ERA through 28 2⁄3 innings in 2025, has allowed just one homer, and still carries a career 10.6 K/9 thanks to his ghost forkball. Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, but Scimia pointed to Gallen’s 5.57 ERA, rising walk rate (4.2 BB/9), and five homers surrendered as evidence he’s not himself. The Mets have already covered the run line in three of Senga’s last four starts, and Scimia expects New York’s deep lineup to punish Gallen while Senga limits a Diamondbacks offense that managed only four runs Wednesday against a bullpen game.

For a +425 same-game parlay at DraftKings, Ed Scimia linked three correlated angles: Mets -1.5, Under 8.5, and Kodai Senga 5+ strikeouts. He expects a "dominant performance" from Senga, noting the right-hander’s career 10.6 K/9 even though his 2025 strikeout rate is temporarily depressed. Pitcher-friendly Citi Field plus Gallen’s name value (despite current struggles) should keep the total under, while New York’s stacked lineup gives Senga the run support to cover the spread. Scimia sees value because books have lowered Senga’s K ladder and totals after Wednesday’s 4-3 contest, creating an exploitable window for bettors willing to tie the three outcomes together.

Jay Croucher recommended playing the game total over 7.0 at Citi Field. His rationale combined Zac Gallen’s 5.57 ERA and recent five-inning ceiling with New York’s inability to keep games low-scoring when Senga exits. Arizona just tagged the Mets’ relief corps for four late runs on Wednesday, while New York has plated at least four in each of Senga’s home starts. Croucher’s projection model spit out 7.6 expected runs, giving bettors a half-run cushion on the posted total.

Jay Croucher backed the Mets on the -152 moneyline, citing Kodai Senga’s ace-level start to 2025. Senga owns a 1.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through four outings and New York has won each of his last three Citi Field starts, returning a 1.0-unit profit on the run line in those games. Croucher contrasted that with Zac Gallen’s rough opening month (1-4, 5.57 ERA) and noted Gallen has averaged only five innings per appearance, exposing an Arizona bullpen that was forced to cover three frames on Wednesday. With the Mets’ model projecting a steeper -165 true price, Croucher judged the current -152 number as actionable value.

Guy Boston backed Arizona on the moneyline and liked OVER 8.5 after the Mets’ 8-3 win. Corbin Burnes’ name recognition hides worrying splits: a 4.44 road ERA this season and a cutter opponents are slugging .507 against away from Chase Field. The Mets sit top-5 in wRC+ versus cutters and curveballs—the two pitches Burnes leans on. On the other side, emergency starter Brandon Waddell owns a 1.46 WHIP in AAA, so Boston expects Arizona’s power bats to respond with run support for Burnes. He framed it as a motivation spot: "You’re telling me Arizona isn’t going to say, ‘Screw that, let’s hit this guy’?" projecting both line-ups to trade blows into a 6–4 type finish.

Brad Francis advised taking the Mets on the moneyline, noting they have been ‘elite’ at Citi Field with eight straight home victories. Until that streak ends, he is riding New York against an Arizona club that has been mediocre on the road.

Dylan Rockford made the Mets a –150 favorite and said he will bet them at anything cheaper, even with Corbin Burnes on the other side. Rockford highlighted New York’s absurd 12–1 home record and the fact Kodai Senga has allowed only one homer all year while averaging 6.1 innings per start. Although Senga does issue a couple of walks, Arizona is slumping—losers of four of five—and the Mets’ ghost-fork should neutralize the D-backs’ low strikeout profile. Burnes is finally rounding into form but still carries a 4.09 FIP and faces a Mets lineup that ranks eighth in OBP. Rockford trusts Citi Field to provide the usual home-field bump and expects the name-value discount on Burnes will give bettors a rare chance to back the hottest home team in baseball at a palatable price.

Chris Welsh recommended slipping Tylor Megill into trade offers while his name value lags behind the numbers. Through 31 innings he owns a 1.74 ERA (2.89 xERA) with a 30 % K-rate despite a 9 % walk rate. FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model currently rates his fastball No. 1 in baseball and ranks him top-five overall alongside Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. Some regression is inevitable, but the modeled pitch quality plus Mets rotation stability make him an inexpensive upside play. Welsh urged listeners to ask for Megill as a throw-in before the wider market catches on.

Francisco Lindor carries a .333 average in 21 career ABs versus Corbin Burnes and has recorded a hit in 21 of his last 25 games. The tout feels comfortable backing Lindor’s hits prop against Burnes’ struggling arsenal.

It's The Final Round said Pete Alonso is one of his favorite targets on Wednesday against Corbin Burnes. Burnes is living off a 43 % cutter that has surrendered a .278 average and two homers, plus a slider (.273 BAA), sinker (.273) and curve (.286). Alonso matches up perfectly: .429 average and a homer off cutters, .333 off sliders, .400 with a homer on sinkers (10-for-25) and .500 off curves this season. Lifetime he is 6-for-15 with 3 bombs (.400) versus Burnes. Alonso has a hit in 12 of his last 14 games—six of them multi-hit—so the tout recommends betting Alonso to record a hit, take his total-bases line, or sprinkle a home-run prop.

Purviance singled out Pete Alonzo’s RBI/total-base props against Corbin Burnes, noting the former Cy Young winner is throwing his cutter 55% of the time this year—exactly the pitch Alonzo punishes. The Mets slugger has a .608 xSLG and 18° average launch angle versus cutters since 2023, and five of his last nine homers have come on that pitch. Purviance added that Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto’s elite on-base skills ahead of Alonzo should guarantee traffic, while Burnes’ cutter has lost 1.5 MPH and two inches of horizontal break compared to his 2022 peak. Books typically hang Alonzo at –105 for over 1.5 total bases and +125 for an RBI; Purviance likes both, with a sprinkle on a home-run prop around +350.

Javan Shouey played Corbin Burnes under 5.5 strikeouts at -120 on DraftKings, acceptable to -135. He cited Burnes’ career-low 21.9% K-rate and a single-digit swinging-strike percentage through five starts with Arizona, noting hitters are making contact both in and out of the zone more than ever. The matchup does him no favors: the Mets strike out just 19.5% of the time versus right-handers (5th lowest) and only 17.7% at Citi Field. Over the last two weeks New York carries a 125 wRC+ against righties, and its active roster has a 1.011 OPS in 86 prior plate appearances against Burnes. Arizona’s rested bullpen means the club has no reason to push him if he struggles. Combining the opponent’s contact profile with Burnes’ diminished whiff stuff, Shouey preferred the under on his strikeout prop.

Zachary Roberts highlighted Eugenio Suarez at +360, pointing out that the Arizona third baseman is tied for the MLB lead with 10 homers, thanks in part to last weekend’s four-homer explosion. Despite a meager .198 batting average, Suarez’s profile is all pull-side power, so the low average does not scare Roberts away from chasing another long ball. The Mets have not yet announced a starting pitcher, leaving open the possibility of a bullpen game or a back-end arm—either scenario that favors power hitters. Roberts trusts Suarez’s ‘all or nothing’ approach to pay off again in a homer-friendly Chase Field environment.