Guy Boston leaned to both the full-game Over and the Dodgers run line in tonight’s series finale with Miami. His case is built almost entirely on the two starters’ ugly 2025 numbers: Viante Belozo owns a 4.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 5.14 FIP, while rookie Landon Knack has been even worse with a 7.27 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 5.04 FIP. Boston noted that game 1 sailed over (7-4) and that the Marlins still plated four runs in regulation yesterday, so both offenses are in rhythm. He trusts the deeper Dodgers lineup to do most of the heavy lifting but expects Miami to contribute thanks to Knack’s poor command and a Los Angeles bullpen that threw 10 combined innings the previous two nights. His actionable angles: Dodgers –1.5 (or first-five run line) and the full-game Over 8½/9, projecting 10+ combined runs if either starter exits early.

Coleman constructed a Marlins-focused SGP at +550 that starts with Miami moneyline (+190), adds the team total over 4.5 runs (+150) and sprinkles in Kyle Stowers 2+ total bases (+140). The core of his handicap is fading rookie right-hander Landon Knack, who owns a 10.38 ERA in two road outings and is still ironing out his command. Miami’s offense has been noticeably better at loanDepot Park, and Coleman is betting that home splits plus Knack’s struggles allow them to get to five runs. On the other side, Valente Bellozo hasn’t dazzled, but the Dodgers have never faced him—an unfamiliarity edge that could buy the Marlins a few clean early frames. If Stowers can take advantage of Knack’s shaky control and LA’s middle relief, Coleman believes the stars line up for a rare Miami upset and a profitable same-game parlay ticket.

Shubham Soni said Shohei Ohtani is worth a +170 home-run prop tonight in Miami. Ohtani has gone deep in four of his last seven contests, including back-to-back nights, and carries a league-best power surge into LoanDepot Park. The matchup is juicy: rookie right-hander Valente Bellozo owns a 0-2 record, 4.97 ERA, and has looked particularly vulnerable to hard contact. With Ohtani’s recent barrel rate spike and the Dodgers projected for one of the slate’s highest implied run totals, Soni likes him to make it three straight games with a long ball.

Calling it his favorite play on the slate, Lindquist locked in Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (–130 opener) in Miami. Ohtani’s Statcast page is glowing: 66.7% hard-hit rate, .697 xSLG and a 14° average launch angle over the last two weeks. LoanDepot Park has bizarrely been Ohtani’s personal launching pad—he hit three homers and joined the 50/50 club there last September and famously struck out Mike Trout in the WBC finale on the same mound. Marlins spot-starter Jordan Balazovic (452 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, sub-19% K-rate) lacks the swing-and-miss stuff required to neutralize Ohtani, and Lindquist would play this up to –145.

Bettor Mark said the Dodgers are in a classic bounce-back situation after dropping Tuesday’s game to Miami and facing a Marlins bullpen game with no confirmed starter. Rather than laying the –1.5 run line at roughly –140, he prefers the correlated team-total over 5.5 runs at –122, noting that Los Angeles has cleared that number in six of their last eight wins. He expects Dave Roberts’ lineup to be back at full strength, highlighted by Mookie Betts’ .425 OBP and Shohei Ohtani’s recent five-game homer binge. With Miami ranking 29th in bullpen ERA (5.21) and the roof open at Dodger Stadium on a warm 78-degree night, Mark projected 6–7 runs and said the play captures the same upside as the run line at a cheaper price.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the run line with the Dodgers, noting that L.A. has won eight of nine overall and six straight against Miami. The Dodgers rank top-7 in four key offensive categories and are 19-16 against the run line, whereas the Marlins are just 13-21 overall and 17-27 ATS. Miami starter Valent Veloso surrendered five runs in 4.2 innings to Oakland in his last outing, sporting a 4.97 ERA and shaky 4/1 BB/K ratio in that game. The tout expects the deep, red-hot Dodgers lineup to jump on Veloso early, making the unknown L.A. starter largely irrelevant and creating a comfortable runway to cover as road favorites.

Despite both clubs’ strong over records (Dodgers 20-15 O/U, Marlins 23-11 O/U), the tout prefers the UNDER. He pointed out that Miami’s overs are driven by poor pitching that could stabilize if Veloso gets quick hook, and the Dodgers have yet to name a starter, leaving open the possibility of a bulk-reliever game from their 7th-ranked bullpen. With an inflated total caused by eight overs in Miami’s last ten and seven straight overs in this matchup, the tout expects market overreaction and is betting contrarian to the recent trend.

Bamford went right back to the well with a Dodgers team-total over, looking for 5+ runs regardless of who starts for L.A. He pointed out that rookie Valente Bellozo owns a 4.39 home ERA and just surrendered five earned to Oakland, while the Dodgers’ lineup is a murderers’ row: Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are both hitting over .300, Teoscar Hernandez is above .300 in the three-hole, and even No. 7 hitter Jose Ramos has pop. L.A. averages 4.65 runs per game on the road and just tagged Sandy Alcantara for seven; Bamford expects the relentless depth to eventually crack Bellozo and a suspect Miami bullpen. With the Dodgers forced to mix-and-match arms after using an opener last night, he prefers isolating the offense and betting them to reach at least five runs again.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the run line with the Dodgers, noting that L.A. has won eight of nine overall and six straight against Miami. The Dodgers rank top-7 in four key offensive categories and are 19-16 against the run line, whereas the Marlins are just 13-21 overall and 17-27 ATS. Miami starter Valent Veloso surrendered five runs in 4.2 innings to Oakland in his last outing, sporting a 4.97 ERA and shaky 4/1 BB/K ratio in that game. The tout expects the deep, red-hot Dodgers lineup to jump on Veloso early, making the unknown L.A. starter largely irrelevant and creating a comfortable runway to cover as road favorites.

Just A Bet Outside went right back to the Dodgers team-total well, taking L.A. over 5.5 runs at –118 despite Tuesday’s four-run letdown. His thesis centers on Marlins starter Valente Belozo, whom he called “not very good.” In 12.2 MLB innings, Belozo owns more walks (8) than strikeouts (7) along with ugly percentile ranks: 2nd in whiff rate, 4th in strikeout rate, 9th in walk rate, and 2nd in ground-ball rate—meaning everything is hit in the air. The rookie was torched for five earned by Oakland his last outing. Facing Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts (back in the lineup after a rest day), Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith—each elite at lifting and barreling the baseball—Stephen expects multiple homers and emphasized that the Dodgers produced 12 baserunners even in Tuesday’s “bad” game. With L.A. motivated to avoid losing a series to Miami, he forecast at least six runs and labeled the over a half-unit play.

Welsh grabbed Mookie Betts +130 to record an RBI, citing a dream matchup with a Marlins pitching staff that owns an 8.00 ERA in road games and is starting Cal Quantrill, who has been tattooed for a .373 wOBA by right-handed hitters. Betts is locked into the leadoff spot but still leads the Dodgers in opportunities with runners in scoring position thanks to the on-base skills of Ohtani and Freeman behind him. Welsh noted Betts’ 46 % hard-hit rate and 11 barrels over his last 50 batted balls as proof the underlying power is intact despite a lukewarm HR total.

Chris Welsh bucked BettingPros’ model and pounded the over 4.5 strikeouts on Tony Gonsolin at –120. The Marlins rank sixth in baseball in strikeouts per game and are especially vulnerable to Gonsolin’s splitter (35 % whiff rate) and elevated four-seam. Welsh pointed out that the Dodgers right-hander blew past the same line in his last start, fanning nine, and has quietly pushed his strikeout percentage to 24 % after a slow April. With Miami projecting just two lefties in the lineup and averaging only 3.1 runs per road game, Welsh expects Dave Roberts to let Gonsolin work deep enough to grab at least five Ks.

Joe Pisapia said that Sandy Alcantara is fully droppable in 10-team leagues after another ugly outing against the Dodgers. Pisapia pointed out that Alcantara has produced only eight total fantasy points all season thanks to elevated walks, losses, and earned runs. Chris Welsh’s pitch-mix breakdown added context: Alcantara’s once-dominant changeup is now just his third-most-used pitch, his four-seamer has no life and is living up in the zone, and the whiff metrics are dreadful (23 % swing-and-miss rate, 26 % CSW). With batters routinely squaring him up and his next turn coming versus the White Sox, Pisapia argued there’s no reason to waste a roster spot on Alcantara in shallow formats, though he would still stash in 12-teamers or deeper.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the run-line with Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten against Miami, and the Marlins are 0-4 ATS as home underdogs versus NL West foes this season. Cal Quantrill’s nightmare history against L.A. (8.00+ ERA, 2.00+ WHIP, nearly 4 BB/9) was punctuated by a recent shelling from these same bats less than a week ago. Tony Gonsolin looked locked in during his season debut against Miami, and facing the same lineup again is expected to hurt Quantrill more than Gonsolin. With the Dodgers’ offense red-hot and Miami unable to match runs, the tout likes L.A. to win comfortably.

Guy Boston recommended Michael Conforto under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs at ‑120. Conforto has failed to reach two HRRs in 9 straight and 16 of his last 20 (80%), averaging just 0.85 in that span. Season-long, he is 23-for-32 (72%) to the under with a .141 batting average and 60.8 WRC+. Against Miami he is 4-for-4 to the under this year and 5-for-9 dating to 2023. The individual matchup also favors the under: in 10 career plate appearances versus Cal Quantrill, Conforto owns a .143 average with a lone homer. Conforto’s splits are worse versus righties (.130 AVG, 62.6 WRC+), while Quantrill’s numbers improve against left-handers (4.60 ERA, .255 AVG allowed, lower HR/9 and wOBA). Boston believes Conforto’s prolonged slump plus a pitcher who handles lefties well makes the under a strong prop.

Pulver also advised betting Over 9.5 runs at +100, noting that Los Angeles could ‘cover the total on its own’ given its league-leading .323 average and the Marlins’ 8.13 staff ERA over the last week. Even if Miami’s struggling lineup continues to scuffle, the author believes L.A.’s bats—and a vulnerable Marlins bullpen—can push this game into double-digit runs. He combined the Over with the Dodgers’ -2.5 run line for a same-game parlay that pays +220 at BetMGM.

Travis Pulver laid out a bullish case for laying the lumber with Los Angeles at -2.5 runs (-120). He pointed to the Dodgers' scorching .323 team batting average over the last seven days—best in the majors—versus Miami’s .222 mark. The Marlins’ staff has matched the Angels for worst ERA in baseball during that stretch (8.13), while the Dodgers’ arms have been a rock-solid 3.57. Tony Gonsolin looked sharp in his April 30 season debut against these same Marlins, needing just 77 pitches to navigate six innings of three-run ball, whereas Miami counter-starter Cal Quantrill failed to escape the fourth. Given L.A.’s offensive firepower, Miami’s pitching struggles, and a huge matchup edge on the mound, Pulver predicted the Dodgers win by three or more and called the -2.5 run line a playable number.

The RealGM computer expects fireworks at loanDepot Park, projecting a 6-5 Dodgers win and circling the Over on the 9.5 run total. Los Angeles sends Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 4.50 ERA) to face Miami’s Cal Quantrill, who has been torched for an 8.10 ERA through six starts. With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in xFIP and the roof likely open for a humid 80-degree South Florida evening, the model expects plenty of traffic on the bases. Bettors comfortable laying the steep –275 moneyline on L.A. can do so, but the article’s actionable angle is the Over given two vulnerable arms and elite Dodger bats that rank top-3 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.

Soni advised taking Freddie Freeman’s home-run prop at +425 versus Miami. Freeman brings a 10-game hitting streak with 3 homers during that span and sports a .337 average, 7 homers, 23 RBIs and 16 runs on the season. The matchup is again Cal Quantrill, whose 8.10 ERA and 5 long balls allowed in 26.2 innings signal serious vulnerability. Dodger Stadium’s friendly dimensions for left-handed power and Freeman’s elite hard-contact profile make the +425 number a bargain in Soni’s eyes.

Shubham Soni backed Shohei Ohtani to go deep at +225 in the Dodgers-Marlins matchup. Soni pointed to Ohtani’s .292 average and 9 homers on the year, stressing that the two-way star stayed scorching with a big fly last night. The key angle is Marlins starter Cal Quantrill’s dreadful 8.10 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 5 homers served up in only 26.2 innings. With a red-hot hitter facing a pitcher who is getting barreled up, Soni labeled the +225 price one of the best home-run props on the board.

Guy Boston leaned toward the full-game over in Marlins-Dodgers, citing Cal Quantrill’s brutal history against L.A. (148 PA, 10.8% K-rate, 12.2% BB-rate, .346 AVG, .380 xwOBA, .425 actual wOBA). He acknowledged Tony Gonsolin’s encouraging return start (9 K, 0 BB over 6 IP) but warned of the typical second-start regression after long layoffs. Even if Gonsolin shoves, the Dodgers’ lineup could cover most of the total themselves given Quantrill’s inability to miss bats. Sunday’s 7-4 finish between these clubs showed the scoring potential and the current posted number is similar. He mentioned a possible first-five run-line play on L.A. but made the over his preferred bet because it captures both Quantrill fade and bullpen volatility.

Guy Boston leaned toward the full-game over in Marlins-Dodgers, citing Cal Quantrill’s brutal history against L.A. (148 PA, 10.8% K-rate, 12.2% BB-rate, .346 AVG, .380 xwOBA, .425 actual wOBA). He acknowledged Tony Gonsolin’s encouraging return start (9 K, 0 BB over 6 IP) but warned of the typical second-start regression after long layoffs. Even if Gonsolin shoves, the Dodgers’ lineup could cover most of the total themselves given Quantrill’s inability to miss bats. Sunday’s 7-4 finish between these clubs showed the scoring potential and the current posted number is similar. He mentioned a possible first-five run-line play on L.A. but made the over his preferred bet because it captures both Quantrill fade and bullpen volatility.

Data Skrive recommended laying the heavy ‑274 moneyline with the Dodgers in Miami and pairing it with the over 9.5 runs. The model’s bullish stance leans on L.A.’s 24-11 record, a lineup that has scored 5.5 runs per game, and Freddie Freeman’s active 10-game hit streak. Miami enters at 13-21, and its shaky bullpen owns a 4.91 ERA, factors that pushed the computer projection past the posted total at spacious loanDepot Park.

Data Skrive recommended laying the heavy ‑274 moneyline with the Dodgers in Miami and pairing it with the over 9.5 runs. The model’s bullish stance leans on L.A.’s 24-11 record, a lineup that has scored 5.5 runs per game, and Freddie Freeman’s active 10-game hit streak. Miami enters at 13-21, and its shaky bullpen owns a 4.91 ERA, factors that pushed the computer projection past the posted total at spacious loanDepot Park.

Daniel Kohn relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model, which is on a 10-5 (+67%) run with top-rated MLB moneyline plays, is hammering the Over for Tuesday’s Dodgers-Marlins game. The model spits out 9.9 combined runs against a posted total of 9.5 (-106 at DraftKings). Supporting the projection: Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin owns a 4.50 ERA and just surrendered three earned runs to this same Miami lineup; Marlins counterpart Cal Quantrill sports an 8.10 ERA and has issued 5+ walks in two of six starts. Offensively, Teoscar Hernandez (.315 AVG, nine HR, 34 RBI) has hits in nine of his last 10 for L.A., while Kyle Stowers (.310 AVG, six HR) is red-hot for Miami after a four-hit, two-homer night against the Dodgers on April 30. Los Angeles has hit the moneyline in seven of its last eight, and Miami has cleared its team total in 20 of 29, further suggesting an up-tempo, high-scoring script. Kohn advises bettors to side with the Over based on the model’s projection and the shaky starting pitching on both sides.

Guy Boston targeted Michael Conforto’s Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI as a plus-money prop versus Cal Quantrill. Conforto owns just one hit (a solo HR) in 10 career plate appearances against Quantrill, good for a .143 AVG and .400 OBP, and is batting an anemic .130 against right-handed pitching so far in 2025. Quantrill, despite overall struggles, has held left-handed bats to a .255 AVG and leans on his splitter, cutter and sinker—pitches Conforto has failed to barrel with any consistency this season. Because Quantrill’s reputation inflates Conforto’s odds, Boston sees value in betting the under on his combined production line.

Bettor Mark wants the Dodgers as a ‘dance-partner’ in a two-leg money-line parlay because he refuses to lay the straight –260. He trusts Tony Gonsolin, who won his first start off the IL and looked sharp, while he labels Miami’s Cal Quantrill "one of my favorite pitchers to fade." The Dodgers are on a multi-game winning streak and bring a terrifying top four of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and the red-hot Teoscar Hernandez. Even in Monday’s 7–4 win, Miami managed 10 hits, so Mark is respecting the Marlins’ bats but still believes Los Angeles is on a business-trip roll that continues Tuesday. Bettors unwilling to parlay could take the run line (-1.5 at –152), but Mark’s official approach is to pair LA’s money line with another heavy favorite to land plus-money.

Just A Bet Outside said to fire on the Dodgers team-total over 5.5 runs at −122 for a 0.5-unit play. He ripped Cal Quantrill’s profile: an 8.10 ERA, four-plus earned runs in three straight outings, and Statcast stinkers (5th-percentile xERA, 6th avg exit velo, 6th K-rate, 15th hard-hit). Quantrill’s two home starts have produced 15 hits and nine earned runs to sub-par lineups, and he just surrendered four runs in 3.2 innings to these same Dodgers. LA is red-hot, averaging 7.3 runs across their last ten games. The top eight hitters—Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Kiké Hernandez, etc.—are 33-for-90 lifetime off Quantrill, with Freeman batting over .500. The Marlins bullpen remains a weakness, so the host projects at least four runs off Quantrill with the pen finishing the job. He labeled it a "tear the cover off the ball" spot and expects the Dodgers to clear the 5.5 line comfortably.

It's The Final Round flagged Mookie Betts as a worthwhile hitter prop Tuesday. Betts owns a 3-for-10 line with a homer off Cal Quantrill and brings a six-of-seven game hit streak into the matchup. Given Quantrill’s poor results with his cutter and four-seam fastball (both over .400 AVG allowed), the tout expects Betts to add to his recent surge and recommends considering Betts for hits or total-bases props.

It's The Final Round advised betting Freddie Freeman overs versus Cal Quantrill even though Quantrill’s top pitch is a split-finger (35% usage, .083 AVG against). The other 65% of Quantrill’s mix is exploitable: cutters (.471 AVG allowed), four-seamers (.429) and a rarely used curve. Freeman dominates those offerings, batting .500 with a homer off cutters and .393 with two homers off four-seamers this year. Lifetime he’s 7-for-11 (.636) against Quantrill and carries a nine-game hitting streak into the contest. Freeman ranks 7th in MLB in launch-angle sweet spot (44.8%), the exact area Quantrill is worst at defending (43.2% allowed, 331st of 363). The tout likes Freeman for hits, total bases and home-run markets.

Lindquist leaned toward Miami +2.5 runs against the Dodgers, arguing the gap is wider than it should be because LA’s lineup could be minus Teoscar Hernandez (hamstring MRI) and already projects weaker on the road. While Tony Gonsolin is elite, Lindquist stated Cal Quantrill’s struggles are baked into the number and over-penalize Miami. Without Hernandez, the Dodgers lose a top-five barrel-rate bat, forcing lesser depth pieces into the order. Miami’s pen owns a 23.9% K-rate and can shorten Quantrill’s exposure. If Hernandez is officially ruled out and the line stays at +2.5 (or +1.5 at plus money), Lindquist will make it a bet, particularly useful in alt-run-line parlays or as a contrarian angle in DFS single-entry builds.

Eric Pathi cautioned listeners to stop laying big prices with the Dodgers, labeling it a long-term bankroll killer. He cited that L.A. sits 29-21-9 as favorites yet shows a net loss when you strip out the modest profit from their 2-2 record as underdogs. Pathi calculated that a $100 wager on every Dodgers game this season required $3,400 in risk for only a $129 return, evidence of a poor risk-reward profile. He lumped the Dodgers in with the Cubs and Royals—two other teams that have produced negative EV when laying –180 or more—but have actually been ‘printing money’ when catching plus odds. His core takeaway: only consider these high-profile clubs when they flip to underdog status, otherwise pass.

Eric Pathi recommended grabbing the Miami Marlins +1.5 runs at +126 against the Dodgers. Pathi said this play flows directly from his underdog-focused bankroll strategy: big chalk favorites have been draining bettors all season, while run-line dogs priced at plus money continue to cash. He pointed out that the Dodgers are just 2–2 as underdogs but 29-21-9 as favorites, a split that still leaves an overall profit of only $129 on a $3,400 outlay if you blindly wagered $100 on every L.A. game—hardly worth the exposure. By taking Miami +1.5, Pathi believes you capture the most favorable side of the market: you get the extra run plus a plus-money payout, all while fading a profile that has shown negative expected value when laying heavy juice.

JD Bets said to hammer Sandy Alcantara over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Alcantara has cleared that number in 8 of his 10 outings this season (80% hit rate) and was tagged by this same Dodgers lineup just five days ago. Los Angeles rolls into Miami hitting .312 as a team with 11.2 hits per game over their last ten, ranking first or second in nearly every major offensive metric JD tracks. Even though L.A. is going with a bullpen day (Ben Casparius expected to open), he trusts their pen more than Alcantara’s current form, noting recent game logs of 6, 3, 8 and 7 earned runs. With the Dodgers’ power traveling and no park-factor downgrade inside loanDepot, JD projects Alcantara to give up at least three runs by the fifth inning, making the over a strong prop play and L.A. moneyline a viable side bet.

Guy Boston recommended Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases at +105. Freeman has topped this mark in 5 of his last 10 (2.4 TB average) and 12 of 23 games overall (52%). Against Miami he is 5-for-9 dating back to last season and 2-for-3 in 2025, logging five total bases on April 30. Lifetime vs Sandy Alcantara: 33 PA, .310 AVG, 11 total bases. Freeman is murdering right-handers in 2025 (.400 AVG, .436 ISO, 54.5% XBH rate). Alcantara, meanwhile, owns a 9.69 ERA, .479 SLG, and 41.7% XBH rate allowed to left-handed bats. Boston noted that a single extra-base hit or a two-hit night cashes and believes the matchup and platoon splits justify the plus-money price.

Guy Boston advised taking Mookie Betts over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑145. Betts has cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 outings (3.5 H/R/RBI average) and 17 of 31 games on the season (55%, 2.48 per game). He is 3-for-3 against this line in 2025 matchups with Miami, including a two-hit, two-run, four-RBI explosion on April 30. Lifetime off Sandy Alcantara: 17 plate appearances, .438 AVG, .471 OBP, 2 HR. Betts’ splits improve versus right-handed pitching (higher AVG and wRC+), while Alcantara is reeling with an 8.31 ERA overall and a 6.92 ERA against righties. Outlier’s recent-form data shows Betts has gone over in 6 of 7, averaging 4.3 H/R/RBI. With Los Angeles favored and Alcantara struggling, Boston expects another multi-stat line from Betts.

Todd Zola urged fantasy players to sit Sandy Alcantara even though the former Cy Young winner is still rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Alcantara was torched for seven runs in 2⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last week and now gets the same Dodgers lineup in Miami. With L.A. ranking top-3 in both OBP and HR rate, plus Alcantara’s diminished 7.8% swinging-strike rate, Zola warns that the matchup projects as the worst on Monday’s slate (THE BAT X would peg an average pitcher for a 5.18 ERA here).

Data Skrive leaned to the Dodgers on the moneyline at roughly -192 and even the -1.5 run line, citing the club’s dominance when chalk. Los Angeles has gone 21-9 overall and an eye-popping 12-2 (85.7%) when priced at -192 or shorter this season. They’ve cashed six of their last eight as favorites and carry a +34 run differential over the past ten games. Miami, meanwhile, has won just one of its last nine as an underdog and is 4-10 (28.6%) when priced +159 or longer. The model gives L.A. a 54% win probability and trusts the lineup’s current form—Freeman’s nine-game hit streak, Ohtani slashing .316 with two bombs in his last five, and Hernandez sitting sixth in MLB homers—to overcome any road-park concerns. With the Marlins’ rotation allowing 4.3 runs per game and a bullpen ERA north of 7.9 over their last ten, backing the Dodgers remains the recommended play.

Data Skrive projected a 6-5 final in Miami, recommending the Over on the 9.5-run total. Their model highlighted several red flags for the pitching staffs: the Dodgers are averaging 7.2 runs per game during a 7-3 stretch, and seven of their last ten contests have sailed Over. On the other side, Miami’s staff owns a brutal 7.94 ERA across its past ten games while still popping 12 homers in that span, creating plenty of two-way scoring potential. Los Angeles hitters such as Teoscar Hernandez (.455 last five) and Freddie Freeman (.405 during a nine-game hitting streak) are scorching, and Miami's Kyle Stowers is on a four-game heater with four homers. With both lineups rolling and the Marlins’ bullpen leaking oil, the tout believes the market total is a shade too low and advises bettors to ride the Over.

Francis laid a half-run with Los Angeles through five innings. He reminded listeners that the Dodgers tagged Sandy Alcantara for seven runs in just 2⅔ innings during last week’s series in L.A. and called the matchup “the best team in the MLB versus one of the worst.” Given Alcantara’s recent struggles and the Marlins’ general ineptitude, Brad expects L.A. to hold a lead at the midpoint again.

Brad Francis bet Sandy Alcantara under 4.5 strikeouts, noting the former Cy Young winner has fallen short of that mark in five straight outings and is unlikely to go deep versus the Dodgers’ stacked lineup. Francis also referenced Alcantara’s shortened workload after Tommy John surgery and expects Dave Roberts’ offense to run up pitch counts quickly, forcing a quick hook.

Data Skrive noted that numberFire gives Los Angeles just a 58.8% chance to beat Sandy Alcantara, yet the Dodgers are listed at –186 (implied 65.0%). That 6-plus percentage-point shortfall signals negative expected value on LA. With Miami priced at +156 and carrying a 41.2% win probability, bettors are better off passing on the heavy favorite or taking a flier on the Marlins’ side.

Lawrence Rupp said Mookie Betts is a plus-odds home-run bet at +560 because Miami starter Sandy Alcantara is in a tailspin: career-worst 15.8% strikeout rate, career-high 46.4% hard-hit rate, an 8.31 ERA, and a homer allowed in four of his last five outings. Betts already owns a 7-for-16 line with two bombs off Alcantara and currently leads all 351 qualified hitters by squaring up 47.6% of the balls he puts in play. With the Dodgers carrying a league-best .866 OPS at Chavez Ravine, Rupp expects Betts to ignite the lineup with another long ball Monday night.

Shubham Soni labeled Shohei Ohtani a top-tier prop at +270. Ohtani is batting .304/.399/.565 with eight homers and has caught absolute fire, hitting .400 with two long balls over his last eight games. On the mound opposite him is former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who is anything but ace-like right now: 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and four homers surrendered in six starts. With Ohtani’s multi-homer upside and Alcantara’s diminished velocity and command, Soni views the +270 price as a gift.

Kingpin AI said Miami is a live home dog at +140. The line implies a 42% win probability, but the model pegs the Marlins at 45%, creating roughly +8% expected value. The piece notes the Dodgers’ reputation inflates the price, while Miami’s home‐field edge and competitive roster make the matchup closer to a coin-flip.

Data Skrive’s projection model spit out a 6-5 final in favor of Los Angeles and immediately tagged two actionable angles: Dodgers ‑185 on the moneyline and Over 9.5 runs. The computer is essentially fading Sandy Alcantara’s ugly 8.31 ERA and 1.87 WHIP while trusting rookie Ben Casparius’ tidy 2.91 ERA and the league-leading Dodgers offense (23-11 record, 5.3 runs per game). Miami’s bullpen owns the third-worst xFIP in baseball, another reason the model expects run creation to keep climbing once Alcantara exits. With both starters averaging fewer than 5.2 innings per outing and LoanDepot Park’s retractable roof forecasted open in humid 80-degree weather, the algorithm is bracing for fireworks and a comfortable LA cover.

Kenny G said the Dodgers money-line at –166 is a buy, arguing the price should be at least –200 given the matchup. He acknowledged Los Angeles is using swingman Ben Casperius, who probably tops out at three innings, but stressed that the Dodgers’ pen owns a top-five ERA so the drop-off is minimal. Offensively they have scored 10, 2, 12, 15 and 7 runs in their last five and sit third in MLB in runs and fourth in batting average even with injuries. On the other side, Sandy Alcantara carries an 8.31 ERA and was tagged for seven earned in 2⅔ by these same Dodgers earlier this season. Miami’s relief corps is bottom-five with a 4.83 ERA, and its lineup ranks only 16th in runs and 15th in OBP. With L.A. 23-10 overall while Miami is 13-20, Kenny expects the Dodgers to win "the vast majority of the time" and made them one of his main plays for the slate.

Eric Lindquist said Shohei Ohtani is a strong home-run bet Monday in Miami. Sandy Alcantara is coming off a seven-earned-run beating by these same Dodgers and continues to rely almost exclusively on four-seam velocity, a profile Ohtani demolishes (last season: .366 ISO vs 95-plus mph fastballs). Lindquist added that LoanDepot Park has played far less pitcher-friendly this year because the side panels have remained open more often, allowing warm coastal air and a mild ‘wind-tunnel’ effect to carry balls to right-center. With Ben Casparius opening for L.A. and the Dodgers bullpen likely intact, Lindquist prefers attacking Alcantara early—laddering the Dodgers team total—but singled out Ohtani’s HR prop as the clearest angle given his 57% hard-hit rate and the confidence boost from Sunday’s leadoff blast.