Chris Morgan praised Hunter Greene as a strong DFS pitching option due to marked improvement from last year, noting Greene drastically lowered his ERA from 4.82 to 2.75 last season by better managing home run prevention. In 2025, he has further improved, lowering his walk rate significantly and posting a stellar 1.31 ERA along with a 7.67 K/BB ratio. The matchup is extra favorable as Greene faces the Pirates, who have struggled offensively, batting below the Mendoza Line. Morgan views Greene as potentially becoming an ace and legitimate Cy Young contender, projecting considerable DFS upside in this contest.

Andy Smith recommends Hunter Greene as a strong DFS pitching option on Sunday based on his recent dominance. Greene has opened his campaign with a stellar 1.31 ERA and 0.63 WHIP over 20 2/3 innings while striking out 23 batters against just three walks. He benefits from a favorable matchup against the Pirates, who have one of the league's higher strikeout rates (11th highest) and among the weakest power outputs (sixth-lowest ISO) against right-handed pitchers this season. Considering Greene's strikeout ability and the Pirates' offensive struggles, Smith expects a robust DFS payoff.

Data Skrive sees actionable value on the Cincinnati Reds as clear favorites with a -194 moneyline making them their biggest favorite scenario of the season. They pointed to a 3-2 record in previous matchups as moneyline favorites and an implied winning probability of 66%. Given the projected score of 4-2, there's betting logic in playing the Reds -1.5 run line at positive odds (+110), considering their recent 6-4 record against the spread in their last ten games.

Data Skrive recommended fading the Pirates on the road facing their biggest longshot odds yet this season at +161. They highlighted Pittsburgh's struggles as underdogs with only three wins in ten tries, and also mentioned a weak 4-6 ATS record over their past ten games. The betting metrics, combined with Cincinnati's strong position in this divisional matchup, justified skepticism surrounding the Pirates' chances.

Kingpin identifies Hunter Greene as a strong play today against the struggling Pirates offense. Greene has been lights-out this season (1-1 with a 1.31 ERA and double-digit strikeout rate), showcasing elite velocity. Pittsburgh's offense has sputtered, scoring just five runs combined in the first two games of this series. The Pirates are sending an inexperienced pitcher in Carmen Mlodzinski to the mound, creating a significant pitching mismatch. Kingpin strongly recommends backing Greene and the Reds, potentially on the run line.

Chris Morgan recommended Elly De La Cruz for DFS lineups in spite of his plate discipline issues and inability to hit lefties effectively. Even with those limitations, De La Cruz produced an impressive combination of 25 home runs and an eye-popping 67 stolen bases last season. Facing Carmen Mlodzinski—recently moved from bullpen to rotation who gave up seven hits and four runs in his first start against Tampa Bay—De La Cruz, a hitter with a strong .849 OPS against right-handed pitchers, offers high upside for fantasy production via both power and stolen bases.

Greg Peterson is enthusiastic about backing the Reds against the Pirates on the runline at +120. Reds starter Hunter Greene struggles at home historically with a higher ERA (4.09 home vs 3.48 away) and an increased home-run rate (1.6 homers per nine at home vs 0.9 away). However, he is matched favorably against Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski, transitioning from the bullpen and performing poorly this season (5.14 ERA in just 8 2/3 innings), struggling to provide innings and walking high amounts of batters (nearly four walks per nine innings career-wise). Peterson also recommends playing the over of 7.5 runs, given the pitching liabilities he projects. He assesses fair lines at Reds -1.5 (-112) and total 8.4 runs, creating betting value at current odds.

Bettor Mark sees the line of 8.5 runs as too high between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, leaning toward the under. Although the Reds have recently played in games where balls have carried, their underlying hitting statistics consistently fail to justify such high totals. Mark sees discrepancies between recent offensive perception and actual batting metrics for Cincinnati. While he's not making an official play, Mark strongly indicates the under at minus 115 as the smarter betting angle given Cincinnati's offensive struggles and the juiced line suggesting sharp positioning toward lower run totals.

Stan Son suggested Andrew Abbott as a DFS value pitcher despite concerns about velocity and strikeout potential. Abbott makes his season debut after being activated from the 15-day injured list (shoulder injury). He's priced attractively at $7,100, offering contrarian appeal due to low ownership expectations linked to his IL status. Despite struggling last year (92 mph fastball, 19.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% K-BB%, 1.63 HR/9, and 5.04 FIP), Abbott faces a favorable matchup against an offensively weak Pittsburgh Pirates team, which currently slashes just .198/.289/.301 with an ISO of .103 (third-lowest in MLB). They've struggled even more against lefties (.192/.259/.273 with a .081 ISO). Additionally, Oneil Cruz may miss the game again. Abbott recently threw over 90 pitches in his rehab start, indicating no pitch-count concerns.

Dan Marcus flagged Andrew Heaney as an attractive salary-saving pitching option at only $6,600 on DraftKings. Marcus cited Heaney's early-season form, featuring an impressive 12:2 K:BB ratio across 12 innings, as reason for optimism. Heaney faces a Reds offense Marcus sees as still off to a slow start, giving him considerable upside as a cost-effective pitching pick.

Kenny G strongly recommended backing Pirates pitcher Andrew Heaney, based on his exceptional early-season performance. Heaney boasts an impressive 1.50 ERA after two starts, notably dominating the Yankees with 10 strikeouts over seven innings, allowing only one run. Kenny identifies the Reds offense as a favorable matchup—dead last in MLB in on-base percentage and 26th in batting average—even in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Although Pittsburgh's offense is concerning (last in batting average), Kenny stresses the value lies purely in Heaney's dominance, suggesting betting modestly on Pittsburgh based on the pitching advantage.

Lonte Smith identified Cincinnati moneyline at -120 as a lock wager considering their favorable home pitching matchup with Andrew Abbott returning from injury. Abbott carries a proven career track record, while Pittsburgh pitcher Andrew Heaney is due for regression after a surprisingly strong start. Smith underlined Pittsburgh as a team to fade following a strong start, believing Cincinnati's home environment and favorable scheduling facing Pirates rotation back-end pitchers present excellent betting value on the Reds.

Lonte Smith recommended betting Cincinnati at home against Pittsburgh, specifically noting Cincinnati avoids facing Pittsburgh’s ace Paul Skenes, who is not scheduled in this series. Andrew Abbott returns from the injured list and historically has been solid (career 3.78 ERA). Smith sees this as a prime offensive spot for Cincinnati at home against Andrew Heaney, despite Heaney's strong early performances, due in part to the favorable pitching matchup by avoiding tougher Pirates starters. Smith supports betting the Reds on the run line anticipating a big offensive showing.

Mike Maher suggested selling high on Hunter Greene despite Greene's dominant early-season performance, expressing significant concerns about durability and potential injury risk. Maher referenced Greene's elite velocity reaching nearly 101 MPH in the ninth inning of his recent start, noting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander previously accomplished similar feats before eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery. Given Hunter Greene's history with Tommy John and injury problems, Maher believes the probability of sustaining this pace for a full season without injury is low. Maher pointed out Greene's value cannot get much higher and suggested targeting offensive stars like Alex Bregman or Kyle Schwarber as returns, capitalizing on Greene's current peak market perception.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting on Cincinnati Reds Money Line, citing notable momentum following three wins in their last four games. They pointed out an advantage due to the Pirates' unreliable overall performance, noting Pittsburgh isn't ideal to back unless odds clearly favor them. Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott is making his season debut—typically a cautious scenario—but the Reds' improving form and potential playoff contention create appealing betting odds for Cincinnati in this matchup.

Todd Zola advocates streaming Andrew Heaney as a fantasy starting pitcher this Saturday, citing a great matchup against a struggling Cincinnati Reds lineup. Despite typically avoiding streaming pitchers in Cincinnati's hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Zola emphasizes that the Reds offense has struggled to ignite early in the season, sporting the seventh-highest strikeout rate in MLB. Heaney is coming off an impressive start versus the New York Yankees, where he racked up 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Zola sees strong strikeout potential again versus a Reds offense that has been prone to swings-and-misses.

Brian Howard strongly suggested taking Jeimer Candelario's two-plus total bases prop against the Pirates. He emphasized Candelario’s strong historical success facing the expected Pirates starter, coupled with Candelario’s recent form including a right-handed home run, giving confidence that he's heating up and primed for success in this specific matchup.

Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Pittsburgh Pirates' bats to take advantage of Andrew Abbott's season debut, fresh off a shoulder injury. Abbott hasn't pitched yet this season, making him a vulnerable target for a Pirates offense finding its groove lately. Pittsburgh has recently exceeded projected totals often, going over in five of their last six matchups, including strong offensive outputs against the Cardinals and Yankees. Abbott's uncertain readiness is a significant factor to confidently anticipate Pittsburgh generating runs.

Guy Boston expresses confidence in Brady Singer against the Pirates in today's matchup. Despite an average start against Milwaukee, Singer had an excellent outing against Texas. Guy Boston points specifically to Singer's pitch repertoire—heavy on sinkers and sliders—as particularly effective against Pittsburgh's lineup, noting these are exactly the pitches the Pirates have struggled to hit. This matchup advantage makes the Reds and Singer a strong side to consider betting on today.

Guy Boston recommends betting Spencer Steer under 1.5 total bases against lefty Bailey Falter. He highlights that while Steer has slight historical success against Falter, his underlying metrics versus Falter's pitch repertoire (fastballs, sliders, and curves) suggest he could struggle. Particularly important, Boston notes a significant increase in Steer's strikeout rate against Falter's slider (23% to 27%), as well as Falter's likely pitch locations contrasting Steer's strengths. Betting on unders for Spencer Steer represents a strong opportunity based on these matchup specifics.

Guy Boston advises betting under on Christian Encarnacion-Strand's 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI props against lefty Bailey Falter. Despite CES having some limited success historically off Falter (2 hits including a home run), Guy Boston emphasizes Encarnacion-Strand's struggles against left-handers overall (.167 average last year) and against Falter's main pitching arsenal: fastballs, sliders, and curveballs. Additionally, he highlights CES's slow start this season, making the under a favorable bet at -110 odds.

Scott Reichel recommends taking Bailey Falter under 1.5 walks at -105 versus the Reds. Falter has issued only one walk in 10 innings pitched this season, despite allowing hits and runs. Scott emphasizes that the Reds have shown poor discipline at the plate, averaging just 2.31 walks per game, tied for the fewest in MLB. He highlights previous matchups, noting even solid walk-drawing offenses like the Yankees struggled to draw walks against Falter. Expecting the Reds batters to swing aggressively early, Reichel sees great value in betting Falter's walk prop under the 1.5 line.

Derek Farnsworth likes Brady Singer as a strong pitcher for DFS lineups given his matchup against Pittsburgh's struggling offense. Singer has recorded a solid 23% strikeout rate paired with a good 3.87 SIERA. The Pirates are projected for only 3.71 runs while having trouble against right-handed pitching (.273 wOBA, 57 wRC+). Given Singer's stability and the Pirates' inefficiency at the plate, he presents an opportunity to exploit in fantasy baseball builds.

Scott Reichel recommended betting the Cincinnati Reds first-five innings minus half a run against Pittsburgh, specifically targeting Pirates starter Bailey Falter's poor form. Falter carries an 8.1 ERA and was mentioned as being particularly bad recently against the Yankees. Reichel showed confidence in Brady Singer, Cincinnati's starter, viewing him as clearly superior. Citing Falter's struggles and Singer's good start as the primary matchup edge, Reichel strongly advocated backing Cincinnati to get ahead early and comfortably win the first-half wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Cincinnati Reds on the money line against the Pittsburgh Pirates based on several key factors. Bailey Falter, the Pirates starter, has been hit hard early this season, allowing nine runs already, continuing his struggles from last year, particularly against Cincinnati when he gave up nine runs in two outings. Conversely, the Reds starter, Brady Singer, has been much sharper, surrendering only three earned runs in his first two starts this season. Singer gives the Reds a clear advantage on the mound, especially with Cincinnati's bullpen performing strongly this season. Additionally, Cincinnati possesses superior pitching control, ranking third in MLB with a 3.28 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while the Pirates rank 17th. Cincinnati has also captured three of the last five matchups against Pittsburgh, further reinforcing the Reds' edge in this matchup.

Kenny G advises caution with Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter, who struggled mightily thus far, currently holding an 8.10 ERA. Falter gave up seven earned runs in four innings against the Yankees, including two homers, and also looked shaky against the Marlins. Kenny G points out that Falter is a major concern for Pittsburgh's rotation and bullpen, adding that Pittsburgh ranks bottom in the league in batting average and second-to-last in slugging percentage. Given this backdrop, he slightly leans towards betting the Reds at -155.

Ryan Wormeli confidently took an early victory lap on Hunter Greene, highlighting his frustration at Greene’s shockingly low draft day ADP in the 90s. Greene, coming off a solid 2023, has impressively pushed his game higher, posting a 1.31 ERA over 20.2 innings and a sterling 0.63 WHIP, backed by 233 strikeouts considered excellent by Wormeli. Wormeli underscored Greene's elite underlying metrics, especially his exceptional Stuff+ numbers described as 'breaking the chart,' notably in line with his dominating spring training figures. Greene elevated his four-seamer usage from 55% to 62%, but has maintained generally similar pitch mix effectiveness. The only highlighted concern is a dangerously low groundball rate possibly problematic in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark. Nonetheless, Wormeli believes strongly Greene will represent a substantial draft-day steal and likely fantasy league-winner given his draft spot.

Ryan Wormeli showed considerable concern about Nick Lodolo's puzzling start despite superficially strong results. Lodolo owns an eye-catching sub-1.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over his first three outings covering 18.2 innings. However, Wormeli pointed to alarming underlying numbers, specifically Lodolo's drastically reduced strikeout rate (down to an unsustainable 11.3%, well below his career norms of 24%-29%). His whiff rate is only 15th percentile and strikeout rate ranks in the 10th percentile early on, considerably worse than past seasons. While his walk rate is also down (a positive), Wormeli expressed genuine discomfort with Lodolo transforming into more of a 'pitch to contact' guy, which is not his typical successful strategy. Despite previously being optimistic about Lodolo entering the season, he now cautions fantasy managers to be wary regarding sustainability given these troubling metrics.

Eric Lindquist flagged Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter as someone to potentially target against due to troubling contact metrics early this season. Falter has allowed a very high hard-hit percentage of 56%. Although Falter's actual barrel percentage is relatively modest at 5.9%, Lindquist remains wary given the extensive hard contact he's allowing and Cincinnati's potential to capitalize, despite their own inconsistent offensive performance early on and Matt McLain's absence from the lineup.

Just A Bet Outside strongly favored Brady Singer's over 5.5 Ks, highlighting his dominant early-season form. Singer has struck out 8 and 7 batters respectively in his first two outings this year against Texas and Milwaukee, throwing 92 and 91 pitches each start. Singer’s fastball has been virtually unhittable, with zero hits allowed and a staggering 25% swinging strike rate, ranking in the 99th percentile. Additionally, three of his pitches (primarily his sinker and slider, which he uses 65% combined) rank in the 80th percentile or better for swinging strikes. He's facing a Pittsburgh Pirates offense with the 8th highest overall strikeout rate, and the 12th highest rate against right-handed pitching. Despite some recent success against lower strikeout pitchers, Pittsburgh struck out heavily against high-quality pitchers such as Max Meyer and Shane Baz (7 and 10 Ks respectively). Singer's ability to pitch deeper into games and the Pirates vulnerability to Ks gives him great upside here.

Bryan Zarpentine sees Cincinnati Reds pitcher Brady Singer surpassing the 5.5 strikeout line against the Pirates. Singer has struck out at least seven batters in each of his first two starts and recorded seven strikeouts in just five innings against Milwaukee. The Pirates currently rank among MLB leaders in strikeouts, averaging 9.6 strikeouts per game, providing Singer with an excellent matchup opportunity to reach at least six strikeouts.

The Reds' right-handed hitters Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Jeimer Candelario present valuable fantasy stream targets Friday facing the Pirates' Bailey Falter. ESPN highlighted Falter’s vulnerability, especially against right-handed bats, setting up an advantageous scenario for power production in a friendly home setting at Cincinnati's hitter-friendly ballpark.

Data Skrive's analysis recommends backing the Cincinnati Reds (-160 on the moneyline) in their matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams enter with a 5-8 record, but the model projects this game to go over the total runs of 8, suggesting an offensive-friendly contest and a strong betting angle favoring the Reds at home.

Greg Peterson recommends betting against Pirates starter Bailey Falter, highlighting his low strikeout rate of 6.4 per nine innings since joining Pittsburgh in 2023. Falter's vulnerability to contact has translated into a 4.86 ERA and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. His struggles give confidence to backing the Reds run line (-1.5 +140) and the over on 8 runs, especially with Reds starter Brady Singer's steady start (three earned runs in 12 innings) providing a more stable pitching scenario.

Chris Welsh sees Noelvi Marte as a speculative fantasy pickup following Matt McLain's placement on the IL. Although cautious about Marte's current lack of home run production and concerns about pitch recognition, Welsh highlighted Marte's impressive speed and contact ability, pointing to six doubles and numerous stolen bases at AAA. With Christian Encarnacion-Strand currently struggling, Welsh believes Marte could quickly carve out a meaningful role if he produces immediately upon promotion, suggesting fantasy managers in deeper leagues or with bench flexibility should consider adding Marte proactively.