Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees

Guy Boston expects a strong offensive performance from the Yankees, citing their momentum after a late rally yesterday, when they scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning despite otherwise quiet offensive production earlier in the game. Given the strength of their lineup overall, he anticipates this offense using that late-game momentum as a springboard today, ultimately liking the Yankees team total over.

Guy Boston sees Merrill Kelly potentially struggling today versus the Yankees given his significant difficulties against left-handed batters. He notes Kelly's vulnerability is particularly concerning given the Yankees' strong lefty hitters including Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm. Given Kelly's splits, this sets a solid stage for Yankees lefties to have an impactful game offensively.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked the New York Yankees on the money line against the Diamondbacks due to their impressive offensive consistency at home, as they average over five runs per game at Yankee Stadium. Additionally, they noted Arizona ranks in the league's upper half in extra-base hits away from home, showing offensive capability but highlighting the Yankees slight edge in home production. Both lineups were recognized for effectiveness against right-handed pitching this season, but Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Yankees' superior home offense to ultimately prevail.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the Yankees money line, highlighting key matchup specifics. Arizona's offensive struggles this season versus lefties—just a .219 average with only one home run—greatly contrasts to last year's league-leading .284 mark in this split, making Carlos Rodon well-positioned to maintain his solid early-season form. Despite Rodon's previous career struggles against Arizona, the Yankees' league-leading offense (18 HR, 10.3 R/G, and 1.1 OPS) and their productive showing at Yankee Stadium strongly suggest a bounce-back Yankees victory against a vulnerable Diamondbacks squad relying on Zach Gallen coming off a shaky outing vs Chicago.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Zach Thompson highlighted Aaron Judge as a high-quality DFS outfield pick, expecting him to rebound against Merrill Kelly. Despite recent struggles (five strikeouts in his last eight at-bats in the Arizona series), Judge maintains a season batting line of .368, four home runs, and an elite .626 wOBA. He holds strong past success against Merrill Kelly (including a home run) and is primed for a turnaround.

Ben Rice, identified by Zach Thompson, emerged as a great DFS budget bat due to his power potential vs Merrill Kelly. Rice earned his spot with an explosive spring (five homers, .359 wOBA) and continues to impress, hitting .385 with two home runs and a .565 wOBA so far this season. Particularly strong against righties (seven of his eight MLB homers off RHP), Rice faces a favorable matchup against Kelly, presenting great DFS value.

Zach Thompson recommended Eugenio Suarez as a large-upside DFS selection vs Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees. Suarez has only five hits in his first 21 at-bats this season, but all five were home runs, including a game-winning grand slam Tuesday against the Yankees. Suarez has historical success against Carrasco (4-for-17 with a home run and a triple) and remains an affordable option for DFS contests, making him a compelling choice on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBC Sports Bet Staff leaned toward the Diamondbacks covering the run line at +1.5 against the Yankees. Highlighting recent performance, although the Diamondbacks struggled offensively picking up just three hits in their last win, their pitching has been sharp, including Zach Gallen's 13-strikeout masterpiece. Merrill Kelly, Thursday's starter, allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last outing, positioning Arizona to keep the game tight.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended backing the Yankees moneyline against the Diamondbacks, making use of their betting model predictions. Despite the Yankees struggling offensively with 30 strikeouts over the last two games, the tout looks to capitalize on a bounce-back performance and regression to their offensive mean at home behind Carlos Carrasco, whose opening start was rough but limited sample size. The Diamondbacks managed just three hits on Wednesday and could face similar offensive troubles against Carrasco.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pinpointed Diamondbacks hitter Gabriel Moreno as an excellent streaming option in DFS against veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. While Carrasco making the Yankees rotation is a compelling feel-good story, Cockcroft notes that his roster spot comes from team desperation rather than his merit, evidenced by a troubling 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2019. Cockcroft believes Moreno, along with teammates Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith, are set up for success facing Carrasco's shaky pitching and offers a clear actionable DFS recommendation.

Tristan H. Cockcroft identified Merrill Kelly as a viable pitching stream despite the challenging road matchup against the Yankees. Though Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly park, Cockcroft highlighted Kelly’s ability to limit home runs, evidenced by having the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 450 innings since 2022. The Diamondbacks pitcher faces a potent New York lineup led by Aaron Judge, amplifying the risk, yet his history of suppressing long balls makes him worth consideration on a difficult slate with limited streaming options.

Data Skrive’s MLB model backs the slight underdog Diamondbacks (+102 money line) to take down the Yankees on the road. Despite Yankees' decent kickoff with a 3-2 record, Arizona boasts better early momentum at 4-2 and projects strongly in a game with a total set at 9.5. The computer also likes a higher-scoring match-up, predicting the final score to go over the specified total, which favors Arizona's ability to exploit Yankee Stadium's friendly offensive dimensions.

Derek Carty advises betting under 4.5 strikeouts (-110) for Merrill Kelly given his weak fastball velocity (91.9 mph, ranking in the 24th percentile among starters) and challenging opponent in the Yankees. Kelly's limited swing-and-miss capability against a potent New York Yankees offense caps his strikeout upside, making the under bet a strategically profitable move (+$7.96 EV, with 56% probability to hit).

Eric Lindquist advised closely watching Jazz Chisholm's RBI bets in live betting markets. Despite Chisholm only managing a single early without runners on, Lindquist highlighted the ninth-inning bump that bettors often undervalue in live lines when the team (Yankees, down 4-0 at the time) is behind. Lindquist emphasizes that live betting lines sometimes overlook this late-game hitting advantage, recommending bettors seek out advantageous live opportunities with Chisholm given these conditions.

Greg Peterson backs Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, anticipating a rebound to his strong 2023 form where Kelly recorded a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and a solid 3.29 ERA. Despite an injury-shortened, down year in 2024, Peterson believes Kelly's talent and strikeout upside give Arizona the betting edge against Carrasco and the Yankees, pricing them favorably at -104 (Peterson's fair line: -123).

Greg Peterson advises fading Carlos Carrasco due to uncertainty in his pitching length and recent struggles. Carrasco has struggled significantly since 2021, posting a 5.36 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and allowing 1.5 home runs per 9 innings. His rocky 2025 relief outing versus Milwaukee (3 runs in 2 IP) creates uncertainty about how deep he'll pitch. Despite the Yankees' strong bullpen (2nd-best AL ERA: 3.62 in 2023), Peterson believes Arizona has betting value at -104, versus a fair implied price of -123.

Peter Dewey recommended betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout total (set at 3.5) due to a combination of matchup difficulty and short leash. Carrasco struggled in his season debut for the Yankees, pitching just two innings while allowing three runs and five hits against Milwaukee. Dewey noted the strong plate discipline of the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, averaging only 6.83 strikeouts per game, third-lowest in MLB. With Carrasco unlikely to pitch deep into the game and facing a lineup that rarely strikes out, Dewey expects him to stay under the set strikeout total.

Dylan Rockford is extremely bullish on Arizona at an alternate run line of minus 1.5 at plus 145 odds against the Yankees. He backed this recommendation by underscoring Merrill Kelly's sharp pitching in his first outing against the Cubs, while juxtaposing it with Carrasco's disastrous relief outing against Milwaukee, allowing three runs in two innings. Rockford's numbers demonstrated Arizona should actually be a favored team around minus 125 in this scenario due to a definitive pitching and bullpen edge. He believes Kelly will continue dominating against a Yankees lineup that is currently shaky, further citing Arizona's strong bullpen and balanced offensive profile. Rockford sees significant betting value on Arizona covering the spread and winning comfortably, ultimately selecting this alternate run line as his dog of the day.

Scott Reichel strongly endorses backing Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks at a line of minus 102, considering it exceptional value against Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled mightily. Reichel pointed out Carrasco's current ERA stands at a disastrous 13.5, resulting from a terrible relief outing against a modest Brewers lineup. By contrast, Kelly impressed in his first start of the season against the Cubs and boasts solid historical performances against the Yankees. Additionally, Arizona possesses a reliable bullpen and a potent lineup currently performing well, notably Eugenio Suarez hitting key home runs. Reichel reiterated that getting nearly even money with clearly the superior pitcher, better bullpen, and an offense at least as capable as the Yankees is an attractive scenario and makes the Diamondbacks' money line his lock play for the slate.

B Wade likes Ketel Marte to score over half a run against Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees, citing Marte's strong early-season form, scoring in 5 out of his first 6 games this year and scoring in the last four matchups against the Yankees dating back to last season. Carrasco struggled significantly last year, going 3-10 with an ERA over 5, which makes him a prime candidate to get roughed up by Arizona's offense. B Wade thinks Marte will not only hit runners in but also get knocked in himself, predicting an active day offensively for Arizona, making Marte a strong bet to score at positive odds.

Kyle Purviance recommends taking Arizona Diamondbacks on the first five innings run line at plus 114. He believes Merrill Kelly clearly has the pitching advantage over Carlos Carrasco, who struggled immensely in his last start, exiting after just two innings against Milwaukee. Although the Yankees' bullpen is significantly more reliable, Purviance sees enough value betting Arizona to capitalize early against Carrasco, whose early-season form looks shaky against a Diamondbacks offense performing well.

Kyle Purviance advises betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout prop against the Diamondbacks. Carrasco recorded only two strikeouts in two innings against the Brewers before getting pulled early in his last appearance. Arizona has been among the toughest teams to strike out early this season, ranking second-fewest in team strikeouts. Given Arizona's ability to consistently put the ball in play and Carrasco's current struggles, Purviance strongly advocates the strikeout under as a play if the line opens around 3.5.

While recognizing Aaron Judge faces a positive batter matchup against Merrill Kelly on April 3rd, It's The Final Round expressed hesitation to recommend Judge in his betting selections. He noted that Judge's odds are typically inflated by sportsbooks because of his high profile and past success. Consequently, despite expecting good performance, the inflated prices attached to Judge diminish his betting value, leading It's The Final Round to advise pursuing other options instead of prioritizing Judge in parlays or hit props.

It's The Final Round initially portrayed Ketel Marte's matchup against Carlos Carrasco as just a lean due to Marte's modest .224 average against Carrasco's primary pitch—the change-up. However, after reconsideration, he warmed up more to the matchup, given Carrasco's weaknesses beyond the change-up and Marte's strong performance against other pitches, notably Carrasco's four-seam fastball. Marte has hit .250 against Carrasco in limited historical exposure (2 hits in 8 at-bats). Given Carrasco's high batting averages allowed across his pitch types and limited pitch variety (primarily relying on two pitches), It's The Final Round suggested Marte could be a stronger betting option than originally thought and would likely elevate him from lean to official pick in hits, runs, and RBIs for April 3rd.

Bettor Mark advises betting the Diamondbacks at +115 in their matchup against the Yankees, explicitly citing a fade of starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Mark respects Carrasco's past career but explicitly distrusts the veteran based on recent performance despite a decent spring training. He sees significant value, calling the Yankees a "sucker bet" at their favored price, and emphasizes his confidence in Arizona's offense after they won 4-3 the previous day, though he believes they left additional runs on the table. He recommends exploiting this inflated line in favor of Arizona.

JD Bets is taking Arizona (+120) moneyline against the Yankees, citing Zac Gallen’s stellar history versus New York. Historically, Gallen owns a zero ERA against the Yankees, consistently dominating their lineup regardless of roster composition. Additionally, JD notes the D-backs hitters perform well against left-handed pitchers like Carlos Rodon, further supporting the underdog play. Though Rodon has overall strong strikeout numbers, his record against Arizona's lineup indicates vulnerability, with many D-backs hitters managing averages above .250. JD confidently backs Arizona on the moneyline due to this pitching advantage and favorable lineup matchup.

Ben Rasa highlighted the Yankees at -135 as a solid betting value given their pitching advantage and home field situation. He pointed out Carlos Rodon's strong start to the season, noting his efficiency in going five and a third innings last time out, allowing minimal damage. Additionally, Rasa emphasized Rodon's notably improved ERA splits pitching at home versus the road last year (3.11 home ERA versus 4.69 away). In comparison, Zac Gallen struggled in his season opener, lasting just four innings while allowing four hits, four walks, and four runs. Rasa sees the Yankees' potent offense continuing to produce consistently, especially at home, and expects Rodon to match up well against the Diamondbacks lineup. With the Yankees coming off a bullpen meltdown in their previous game, Rasa expects a bounce-back performance here and considers the -135 moneyline price as strong betting value before it drifts towards heavier odds.

Millz Young endorses Zac Gallen's strikeout prop against the Yankees, specifically liking it if set at 5.5. Young highlights that Gallen has established himself as one of MLB's premier strikeout pitchers over the past three seasons and expects him to record at least six Ks, additionally giving the Diamondbacks a good chance at securing the win.

Eric Lindquist identified Jazz Chisholm RBIs as an appealing play due to high expected walk rates for teammate Aaron Judge. Lindquist pointed out that opposing pitchers are likely to pitch carefully to Judge, significantly increasing Chisholm's RBI opportunities batting ahead or directly following Judge in the lineup. Citing odds movement (initially +175, moving to +195), Lindquist considers this play attractive due to Judge’s protection effect. He highlighted that Arizona starter Zac Gallen historically struggles against left-handed hitters, adding extra support for Chisholm's RBI potential in a batter-friendly setting at Yankee Stadium.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the Yankees money line against the Diamondbacks, emphasizing New York's elite offensive production, currently leading MLB with a 1.1 team OPS, 18 home runs, and an average of 10.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks Zach Gallen dominated the Yankees in prior appearances but recently struggled severely in his opening start against the Cubs. Furthermore, Arizona has struggled against left-handed pitching with a .219 average this season. While Carlos Rodon traditionally performed poorly against Arizona, his recent strong start combined with Yankees powerful offensive start justified picking New York.

Final Round recommended Merrill Kelly primarily due to his consistent hitting performance this season—Kelly has recorded at least one hit in every game thus far, with multiple hits in many matchups. While the batting averages of current opposing pitcher Ben Lively's primary pitches against aren't dire (mostly respectable averages allowed), Kelly’s reliability and current form are the main positive factors cited. Final Round flagged Kelly as one of the top three plays for the day.

Eric Lindquist pointed out concerns involving Yankees pitcher Will Warren, whose underlying metrics last season revealed troubling signs despite his strong strikeout capabilities. Warren showed a very high 50.7% hard-hit rate along with a 427 expected slugging percentage and a 327 expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA). Given these issues, Lindquist suggested the Diamondbacks versus Yankees total over 8.5 runs as a good play, particularly considering favorable weather conditions—winds blowing out at approximately 9-10 mph to the short porch in Yankee Stadium.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting the Yankees money line due to a clear bullpen advantage. New York's bullpen has a 2.92 ERA, ranking 13th in MLB, whereas Arizona's bullpen is struggling at 22nd with a 5.87 ERA. Yankees hitters have historically excelled against Corbin Burnes and currently lead MLB early on with 15 home runs, providing offensive firepower further supporting their case for victory in this matchup.

Drew Martin is confident in backing Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks at -115 against the Yankees. Burnes finished last season strong, allowing just one earned run in his final 19 innings. He previously dominated the Yankees, striking out nine hitters and allowing only two hits in his last start at Yankee Stadium. Burnes enters well-rested as he wanted five days between starts. Drew contrasted this with Yankees pitcher Will Warren's lack of experience (0-3 record with a 10-plus ERA), highlighting clear pitching discrepancy and wagering value on Arizona.

Just a Bet Outside recommended betting the Diamondbacks money line for the first five innings against the Yankees at -120 odds on DraftKings. He provided substantial evidence supporting Arizona, highlighting that both offenses are hot, but Arizona has a significant advantage with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes boasts a career 3.19 ERA, elite 50.7% groundball rate to mitigate Yankee Stadium's advantages, and a successful record versus key Yankee hitters (Judge 0-for-7, Chisholm 3-for-14, Bellinger 4-for-18). Meanwhile Yankees starter Will Warren is inexperienced (22.2 MLB innings, 10.32 ERA, 1.9 whip) and presents a clear advantage for Arizona's lineup early in the game. This makes Arizona first-five a solid wager.

Just a Bet Outside outlined reasons to avoid Aaron Judge today against Arizona's ace Corbin Burnes. Despite Judge's recent hot streak, he specifically highlighted Judge's struggles historically against Burnes, with an 0-for-7 record and 3 strikeouts. Burnes' pitching style typically induces weak contact and generates ground balls at an elite rate, especially valuable at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Given Judge's poor history against Burnes, fading him appears wise.

Brian Howard cautioned bettors about taking the Diamondbacks versus the Yankees in Corbin Burnes' debut, explicitly citing the Yankees' current hot streak and powerful lineup. While acknowledging Burnes represents the first legit quality starter New York has faced, Brian emphasized the strength, confidence, and recent form of New York's hitters. Despite Kyle Purviance’s enthusiasm for the Diamondbacks at an attractive short price, Howard reminded listeners about the strength of the Yankees bullpen and suggested that betting options like the Diamondbacks first-five run line at plus money might be safer than backing them outright against a dangerous Yankees lineup.

Kyle Purviance noted an intriguing opportunity to fade Yankees pitcher Will Warren, who is making his MLB debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite a line that recently moved slightly toward the Yankees at minus 105, Purviance pointed out that Warren, as a rookie debutante, could struggle facing veteran Corbin Burnes and a Diamondbacks roster. With the price already moving from around minus 120 to minus 115 in favor of Diamondbacks, Purviance plans to wait until morning to see if an even better value emerges, suggesting greater potential value backing Arizona against an untested pitcher making his first career appearance.