Razzle likes Michael Lorenzen as a sleeper SP2. Baltimore projects to start five or six left-handed bats, and Lorenzen has held lefties to a sub-.260 wOBA for most of his career. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings and owns plus money to go six innings. Although the game total sits at 9.5 and Kansas City is a slight dog, the matchup-based platoon edge could produce a 20-DK-point ceiling at low ownership.

JD Bets recommended taking Kansas City +1.5 runs at –178 rather than the straight money-line. He explained that Baltimore’s offense is sputtering, averaging only 2.5 runs per game over the past week, while veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson continues to fight his command, walking at least two batters in five straight outings. The Royals will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has been under his earned-run prop in four of five starts and is keeping the ball in the park. Weather is another factor: a 52 % rain chance in Camden Yards makes him hesitant to target pitcher props, so he prefers the safer run-line. With Kansas City’s bats recently heating back up to league-average levels and Gibson’s control issues likely to give them extra base-runners, JD believes a one-run cushion is plenty against an Orioles lineup currently ranked 27th in walks and scuffling to put up crooked numbers.

Bettor Mark locked in the Royals at +115, calling it one of his ‘best bets.’ The play is rooted in fading Kyle Gibson, whom Mark says is clearly in the back-nine of his career and has looked vulnerable since returning to the rotation. He also pointed out that Baltimore sits just 13-19 despite being favored, making the plus-money number on Kansas City stand out. Although he admitted he doesn’t love the Royals’ bats, he believes Michael Lorenzen can keep them in it long enough for the bullpen to finish the job against a struggling Orioles lineup.

Data Skrive projected a 10-9 Royals victory and recommended grabbing Kansas City at the +114 moneyline. Their model leans on several edges: Michael Lorenzen (3-3) owns the better early-season form than Kyle Gibson (0-1), and the Royals’ staff-wide 3.08 ERA ranks 4th in MLB while Baltimore’s 5.24 ERA sits 28th. The Orioles generate just 7.4 K/9 (4th-worst), a poor fit against a Royals lineup that strikes out only 7.1 times per game (3rd-best contact rate). Baltimore has cashed as a favorite only 38.9% of the time (7-11) and is just 3-6 when priced at −134 or shorter, whereas Kansas City has already won five games outright at +114 or longer. Add a healthier 18-16 record versus Baltimore’s 13-19 mark, and Data Skrive called the Royals a value underdog in the series finale.

Data Skrive’s projection model flashed value on Kansas City at +110, spitting out a 10-9 Royals win and advising the Over 9.5. The sim leans on the pitching mismatch: Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA) has been perfectly serviceable while Baltimore trots out Kyle Gibson and his grotesque 22.09 ERA. The algorithm folds in each club’s form—Royals 18-16, Orioles 13-19—and a bullpen fatigue factor after Baltimore’s relief corps chewed up 14 innings over the last two days. With a warm afternoon forecast at Camden Yards, the computer expects run-scoring to spike and gives the hotter, better-rested Royals a legitimate shot to steal one at + odds.

For a contrarian stack, Morgan suggested Bobby Witt ($4,000), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000) and Drew Waters ($2,500) versus Kyle Gibson. The 37-year-old righty owns a career 4.55 ERA and was torched for nine runs (five homers) in 3.2 innings during his lone 2025 appearance. Witt is batting .302 with three homers and nine steals, Pasquantino posted 19 homers and 97 RBI last year and already has five long balls, while Waters brings speed (16 SB in 2023) and logged an .877 OPS in Triple-A. Morgan believes even Kansas City’s slumping lineup can erupt in this spot.

For Wednesday, Kirby likes Michael Wacha at Kauffman Stadium versus the White Sox. Chicago owns the league’s worst slugging percentage and is striking out more than 24% of the time against right-handed pitching. Wacha’s 26 strikeouts in 32 innings show he can miss enough bats to take advantage, and his career tendency to limit hard contact plays even better in spacious Kauffman. Kirby framed him as a high-floor streamer—unlikely to pile on double-digit Ks but equally unlikely to wreck ratios—making him an easy plug-and-play in daily-moves formats.

Kenny G also prefers the game to stay under 9.5 runs. His rationale: Michael Lorenzen’s recent form (one earned run in each of his last two starts) plus a Royals bullpen that owns an elite 3.02 ERA should suppress Baltimore, whose offense has cratered to 20th in runs and 25th in average. Meanwhile he doubts Kansas City will mash Kyle Gibson the way New York did because the Royals are built on contact rather than power, and they have cashed the under in 22 of 34 games (22-11-1). With both clubs trending to the under at Camden Yards (Baltimore 15-14-3 to the under at home), he sees the 9.5 number as half a run too high and would sprinkle the under alongside his Royals moneyline position.

Kenny G said the Royals are worth a play at +110 and could end up as his official Dog of the Day. He likes the matchup because Michael Lorenzen has settled in with back-to-back one-run outings and Kansas City backs him with the 7th-best bullpen in baseball (3.02 ERA). Offensively the Royals are finally showing a pulse – 4, 0, 8, 3 and 3 runs the last five – with Luis Garcia hitting .307 and Cavan Biggio providing timely power. On the other side Baltimore is a mess: the Orioles sit 13-19, start Kyle Gibson and his 22.09 ERA after being torched for 11 hits, 9 earned and 5 homers by the Yankees, own a 4.69 bullpen ERA, and have scored 0, 3, 5, 3 and 4 in their last five to rank 20th in runs and 25th in batting average. Kenny noted Kansas City is already 22-11-1 to the under, but views the plus money as the bigger edge, calling the Royals a very real upset candidate.

In the same matchup, Peterson fired Under 9.5, projecting only 8.6 runs. His handicap leans on Kansas City’s bottom-three offense plus Lorenzen’s ability to limit damage. Although Gibson imploded in his first start, his career home-run rate (1.2 HR/9) suggests bounce-back potential. With both managers willing to go to top relievers early on getaway day, Peterson anticipates a tighter, low-scoring affair than the market implies.

Shubham Soni said Ryan O'Hearn is worth a +750 homer ticket today because he is simply locked in: .350 average, three bombs, six RBIs and a 1.235 OPS over his last six games. Camden Yards helps left-handed pull power, and Michael Lorenzen brings a hittable 1.37 WHIP despite a respectable 3.48 ERA. Soni expects traffic on the bases to force Lorenzen back in the zone, giving the red-hot O'Hearn plenty of chances to elevate and celebrate.

Peterson backed Kansas City at +112 (he made them ‑108) because Michael Lorenzen’s steady 3.48 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 profile stacks up far better than Kyle Gibson, who was lit up for nine runs and five homers in his 2025 debut after a middling 4.24 ERA and 1.2 HR/9 last season. While Peterson acknowledges the Royals rank 28th at 3.2 runs per game, he trusts their run-suppression angle and sees Baltimore priced on 2024 perception rather than current form.

JD Bets locked in Kris Bubic over 4.5 strikeouts at -120, calling it his favorite play of the game. Bubic has eclipsed this number in four of five 2024 starts (80% hit rate) with game logs of 8, 8, 5, 6, and 6 Ks before a 4-strikeout blip versus Houston. Baltimore provides the perfect get-right spot: the Orioles rank 28th in strikeout rate, whiffing 9.3 times per game overall and 9.7 on the road. JD’s spreadsheet showed individual K-rates north of 30% for half the projected lineup, with several hitters—Mountcastle, Santander, Mullins—sporting 33–50% punch-out clips against lefties. He expects Bubic to work at least five frames, enough to fan the required five batters and cash the "EV play." JD reminded listeners to shop multiple books for the best price but said anything up to -135 is playable.

At +320, Palyo pegged Bobby Witt Jr. as a buy-low HR prop. Witt has only three homers but continues to barrel the baseball at an elite clip reminiscent of his 2024 breakout; Palyo notes the Royals’ shortstop ranks near the top of MLB in hard-hit rate and all-fields contact. He faces Tomoyuki Sugano, whom Palyo calls a one-pitch pitcher relying almost exclusively on a splitter while carrying a 5.66 xERA and 11% barrel rate allowed even after a fluky shutout of the Yankees. Palyo expects Witt’s advanced bat-to-ball skills to handle Sugano’s “junk and bad fastball,” predicting any mistake could leave the yard and that odds north of +300 won’t last once Witt heats up.

Vreeland advised betting a first-inning shutout in Royals vs Orioles, banking on both starters’ form. Tomoyuki Sugano enters with a 3.00 ERA and is fresh off his best MLB outing—a five-inning, eight-strikeout blanking of the Yankees. Kansas City owns the league’s worst home-run rate (30th in dingers per game), so if Sugano keeps the ball in the yard Vreeland expects three quick outs. On the flip side, Kris Bubic sports a sparkling 2.25 ERA and has held foes under three earned in five of six starts. Baltimore’s offense ranks 18th at just 4.0 runs per game, giving Bubic a soft landing in the bottom half. With both pitchers flashing recent dominance and neither lineup scaring early, Vreeland labeled the NRFI (price TBD) his preferred play.

Kenny G advised taking Under 8.5 runs—and even sprinkling the NRFI—in Royals-Orioles. He trusts both starters: Kris Bubic is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and owns a six-plus-inning, 1-run (unearned) gem against Baltimore already, while Tomoyuki Sugano brings a 3.00 ERA and is fresh off five scoreless frames versus the Yankees plus a previous 5.1-IP, 1-run win over Kansas City. The Royals bullpen is quietly elite (3.14 ERA, 7th in MLB) and the Orioles’ shaky 4.66 relief mark still looks better in a home split where manager Brandon Hyde can hide weak arms. Neither lineup scares him: Kansas City sits 28th in runs and just had Bobby Witt Jr.’s hit streak snapped; Baltimore is 13-18 overall and only recently crawling out of an offensive funk. The market trend also leans low—KC is 21-11-1 to the under and 6-10 on the road. With two form pitchers, a trustworthy KC pen, and ice-cold offenses, Kenny projected another 3-2 or 4-3 type finish, making both the full-game under and a NRFI attractive wagers.

Dylan Rockford fired Under 9 at –115, noting both teams are trending toward low-scoring games. The Royals average only 3.06 runs per game on the road and are 10-5-1 to the under away from Kauffman Stadium. The Orioles sit 8-2 to the under in their last ten and have scored three or fewer in six of those contests. Bubich already blanked Baltimore over seven innings in April and brings a 2.25 ERA into the rematch. Sagano quietly owns the best xERA on Baltimore’s staff (3.11) with a 28% strike-out rate. Add in two top-12 defensive units and an umpire projected to favor pitchers, and Rockford projects 7.4 total runs.

Scott Reichel grabbed Kansas City at even money simply because the market keeps flipping a coin in a series featuring two volatile clubs. Baltimore is just 3-7 in its last ten and has burned backers at Camden Yards all season, while the Royals arrive on a 9-1 heater that includes a +29 run differential. Reichel respects Kenta Sagano’s 3.00 ERA but pointed out that Kansas City’s Chris Bubich has already shoved once against these Birds, holding them to one run in a 4-1 victory. With the Orioles laying chalk despite shaky recent form and bullpen fatigue after a Yankees series, Reichel will take plus-money in every matchup, starting tonight with the red-hot Royals.

Projected finish: Orioles 4-3. Tomoyuki Sugano’s 3.00 ERA and 3-1 record get the nod over Kris Bubic’s 2.25 despite Baltimore trailing KC in the standings. The model values Camden Yards dimensions and Baltimore’s superior walk rate. Recommendation is Orioles -110 and Under 8.5.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned UNDER the total, emphasizing that Kansas City ranks 28th in runs and hits only .217 with runners in scoring position on the road, while Baltimore sits 20th in overall scoring. Baltimore’s starter Sugano has been lights-out at Camden Yards, and Bubic limited the O’s to one run in their previous meeting. With both clubs struggling for power and the series opener already cashing an under, the tout expects another low-scoring tilt.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Kansas City Royals, explaining that Baltimore has struggled mightily versus left-handed pitching and now faces southpaw Chris Bubic, one of the few bright spots in Kansas City’s rotation. Despite Baltimore’s home-field advantage, the tout sees the match-up problem at the plate as decisive and expects Kansas City to rebound after a sluggish series opener.

Joe Pisapia recommended wagering Ryan Mountcastle to record an RBI at +170 despite the first baseman’s cold April. Mountcastle owns a 1.400 OPS in 22 career at-bats against Michael Wacha, including multiple extra-base hits, and Wacha’s 13.6% strikeout rate leaves plenty of balls in play. With the Orioles implied for five runs in Kauffman Stadium and Mountcastle likely hitting fifth behind Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, Pisapia believes the plus-money offers a rare buy-low window on a pure batter-vs-pitcher edge.

Collin Whitchurch advised playing the full-game YRFI at ‑125 in Royals–Orioles, calling it a straight fade of Dean Kremer. Kremer has coughed up a first-inning run in four of six starts and owns a 7.50 ERA the first time through the order. Whitchurch noted Kansas City’s improving top three (Witt, Pasquantino, Perez) plus Baltimore’s own firepower means both sides can cash the ticket. While a Royals-only YRFI offers a juicier payout, Collin prefers the safer game YRFI because Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are threats to make Kremer’s damage moot. His model shows value down to ‑130.

For a correlated play, Polzin highlighted Cedric Mullins OVER 6.5 hitting fantasy score versus Michael Wacha. Mullins has faced Wacha 29 times, slashing .391/.417/.739 with 5 RBI and 2 homers. Projection systems also lean over the posted line, and Baltimore’s lineup context (top-five in wOBA vs RHP) provides run-scoring upside. If Wacha does implode as expected, Mullins profiles as the primary beneficiary.

Polzin likes Michael Wacha UNDER his 30.5 pitching fantasy score. Against Baltimore, opposing hitters own a .294 average; Wacha has surrendered 32 hits, 8 HR and 17 RBI to 109 batters while striking out just 25. The game carries one of Friday’s higher run totals, and Kansas City is a 1.5-run underdog, hurting chances for a win or quality-start bonus. Although projections are mixed, Underdog’s lower line corroborates that the PrizePicks number is rich. Given Wacha’s gopher-ball issues and the Orioles’ left-handed power, Polzin sees more downside than upside.

JD Bets grabbed Kansas City on the moneyline at +115, arguing that the market has not caught up to how different the Royals’ lineup looks compared with three weeks ago. KC is 9-1 in its last 10, ranks second in MLB batting average over the past two games, and now owns five everyday hitters batting .300+ versus right-handed pitching (Bobby Witt .311, Vinnie Pasquantino .308, Michael Massey .324 among them). On the other side, Dean Kramer has surrendered at least five earned runs in four of six starts and carries a 4.0 ERA in 2025. Camden Yards wind is only 5 mph out, so weather is a non-factor. JD dismissed Kramer's previous two-run outing against the Royals because that start came before Kansas City’s offensive surge. He passed on Kramer's earned-runs prop to avoid overexposure but called KC ML his favorite look in the game.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks liked the OVER. Kremer has allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his last 4, Baltimore has gone over in 2 of its last 3, and the Orioles’ lineup has already launched 37 HR. Kansas City just dropped an 8-spot in the Rays finale and their bats are heating up. Wacha limits homers but still gives up contact, and both bullpens ranked in the bottom half of MLB ERA entering the week. The tout projected both offenses to knock the starters out by the sixth, expecting a 6-5 or 7-4 type scoreboard that clears the listed number.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking Kansas City on the money line. The case: Dean Kremer has a 7 HR, 7.64 ERA stretch over 30.2 IP, surrendering 26 runs and 40 hits with only 20 K. By contrast, Michael Wacha is coming off his best start and has allowed just 1 HR all season, a key versus Baltimore’s league-high 37 bombs. The Royals arrive hot, winning 4 of 5 and sweeping Tampa, while Baltimore has dropped 3 of 5. Kansas City already won 2 of 3 in the earlier series and owns swagger from a current 3-game streak. The tout expects KC bats to pressure Kremer early and believes Wacha can produce a quality start that sets up an upset.

Peterson also grabbed Under 9.5 (projected 8.7). Wacha suppresses homers (0.28 HR/9 this year) and Kremer, while volatile, is tougher at Camden Yards (1 ER over 5.1 IP in his lone home start). The Royals’ league-worst 3.1 runs per game combined with chilly evening temps set up a slug-free environment. Even if Baltimore’s pen leaks late, Peterson does not see 10 total runs.

Dan Servodidio recommended Vinnie Pasquantino +400 to go yard versus Dean Kremer, labeling the Orioles right-hander a pitcher to fade. Kremer owns a 7.04 ERA through six starts, has yielded seven homers, and his 2.05 HR/9 is fifth-worst among qualifiers. Advanced metrics are ugly too: 12.6% barrel rate (14th percentile) and a mere 15.6% whiff rate (third percentile). Long-ball issues are nothing new—Kremer allowed 18 HR over 24 starts last season and 27 in 2023—and five of his seven bombs this year have come to left-handed hitters, who are batting .326/.581/.933 against him. Although Pasquantino is slumping (.185/.582 OPS), he still leads Kansas City with four homers and has gone deep twice in his last five games. The lefty specialist angle is key: 36 of Pasquantino’s 42 career homers (85.7%) and three of four this year have come off right-handers. Given Kremer’s ongoing HR vulnerability, Servodidio likes Pasquantino as a value HR prop Friday.

Peterson took Kansas City +116 (he made them -102) because Michael Wacha’s 3.38 ERA is backed by a sharper 2.98 FIP and just one HR allowed over 32 IP. Dean Kremer sports a 7.04 ERA and is giving up 2.1 HR/9, and now faces MLB’s worst scoring offense—a negative on the surface, but Peterson sees a buy-low spot on a live starter versus a struggling arm. Wacha’s soft-contact profile and Baltimore’s bottom-five bullpen WHIP were enough to justify the dog price despite the Royals’ run-production woes.

Kenny G backed the Royals at +110 in Baltimore, calling it his favorite underdog of the slate. Michael Wacha has produced four straight quality outings, including six scoreless innings against Houston, trimming his ERA to 3.38. Kansas City’s bullpen has quietly climbed to eighth in MLB with a 3.19 ERA, while Baltimore’s relief corps sits bottom-six at 4.74 and has blown multiple late leads. Kenny pointed to Dean Kremmer’s 7.04 ERA and 14% strikeout rate—the right-hander yielded eight hits and three runs in 4.1 innings the last time he faced KC. Offensively, the Orioles are 27th in batting average and have surpassed five runs just once in seven games, whereas the Royals have scored at least three in six of seven behind a scorching Bobby Witt Jr. With the pitching edge on both ends and an offense trending up, Kenny is taking Kansas City on the moneyline and would only consider the under 9.5 as a secondary play.

Eric Lindquist said Drew Waters is worth a straight bet to record a single at +110 (DraftKings) or +114 (FanDuel). Waters has been bumped from the 9-spot to the 6-spot, giving him an extra plate appearance or two, and because he is a switch hitter there is virtually no pinch-hit risk. Lindquist’s model shows a 28.9% hit probability for Waters, and 18 of his 23 knocks this season have been singles. He expects Baltimore starter Dean Kremer to oblige: Kremer carries a .299 expected batting average and a fly-ball heavy approach that produces lots of middling contact. Lindquist’s sims put the chance of a Waters single near 36%, making the posted price a comfortable edge.

Brad Francis endorsed the Yes-Run-First-Inning in Royals vs Orioles even at juicy odds. He cited that the Yerfi has cashed in the Royals’ last four games against AL East opponents and noted Dean Kremer will be on the hill for Baltimore, a matchup he believes invites quick scoring.

Romanelli is backing Baltimore because he expects Dean Kremer to look more like the pitcher who tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball in his lone 2025 start at Camden Yards. Five of Kremer’s first six outings came on the road, skewing his surface stats, but he now faces a Royals lineup that sits bottom-10 in OPS versus right-handers. On the other side, Michael Wacha already allowed four runs to the O’s in April and owns a .270 xBA against. Baltimore’s offense ranks fifth in ISO versus RHP, and despite early hiccups, Romanelli trusts the Orioles’ deep bullpen to hold any lead. He is playing the Orioles on the money line.

Scott Reichel is taking the plus-115 moneyline with Kansas City behind Michael Wacha. Wacha has turned a corner, allowing only two earned runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts, and the Royals have won three of his past four outings. Dean Kremer, meanwhile, owns a bloated 4.91 ERA at Camden Yards and has been "really bad" according to Reichel. Kansas City just swept Tampa Bay and is swinging the bats well, whereas Baltimore might be getting too much market respect after beating a shaky Yankees club. Reichel believes the number is generous given the recent form of both pitchers and the Royals’ surging offense.

Lonte Smith said Kansas City is a unit-worthy bet at +115 because Michael Wacha is trending up while Dean Kremer is headed the other direction. Wacha has surrendered only two earned across his last 11.1 innings and is coming off six scoreless frames versus a resurgent Houston lineup. The Royals have cashed three of his last four starts and just swept Tampa Bay, so the clubhouse is confident. Kremer, meanwhile, has allowed five-plus runs in four of six outings, coughing up six homers in his past four appearances as Baltimore limps in at 3-7 over its last ten. With Kansas City’s bats heating up and Baltimore’s rotation in disarray after demoting Charlie Morton and rushing Kyle Gibson, Smith argued the books have the favorite wrong and prefers Kansas City outright instead of taking the plus 1.5 run line.

After initially leaning under, Pisapia decided to back Kansas City over 3.5 runs versus Shane Baz. The number felt "too low" given Bobby Witt Jr.’s 21-game hit streak and Vinnie Pasquantino finally barreling baseballs again. He conceded Baz has looked sharp but believes the Rays’ middle-relief corps is exploitable. With Kauffman’s summer weather creeping in, Pisapia expects the Royals to hang four runs by the seventh inning.

Welsh pumped the brakes on Noah Cameron despite the rookie’s 6.1 scoreless innings and first-start win. Cameron flashed a slider with a 44 % whiff rate but finished with just a 22 % CSW overall—well below the 30 % league average—because he lived in the strike zone with four other average offerings. Welsh pointed out the Royals only turned to Cameron because of Cole Ragans’ injury and immediately optioned him after the game. Given the shallow strikeout upside and uncertain role, Welsh advised treating Cameron as a spot-start streamer only when a soft matchup and guaranteed rotation turn align, not a must-add stash.

Although Bobby Witt Jr. owns a 21-game hit streak and a 4-for-11 (.364) history with a homer against Dean Kremer, It's The Final Round urged caution on his props. Witt annihilates Kremer’s top two offerings—cutter (.455) and sinker (.400)—and those same pitches have been roasted this season (.333 and .500 allowed). The red flag is launch-angle quality: Witt’s sweet-spot rate is only 34 %, middle of the pack, while Kremer limits opponents to a 32.4 % sweet-spot, noticeably better than league average. The tout suggested that mismatch may finally cool Witt and prefers Judge or Duran for hit parlays.