JD Bets recommended taking the Red Sox on the moneyline at Fenway against Seattle. He originally considered a Yes‑Run‑First‑Inning bet with the total sitting at 10 but pivoted after comparing the starters. Sean Newcomb has surrendered only three earned runs across his last four appearances and blanked Tampa in a 1‑0 win, while Emerson Hancock has allowed 3‑6‑2‑2 earned runs in his past four and carries a 1.48 WHIP. Boston’s left‑heavy core, led by Rafael Devers (.333 AVG, .600 SLG vs RHP), matches up well against Hancock’s reverse‑split issues (.357 OBP allowed to lefties). Conversely, Seattle owns just one bat above .300 versus left‑handed pitching this season. With Newcomb’s recent strike‑throwing, Boston’s bullpen rested, and the Mariners scuffling against southpaws, JD believes the slight home favorite price is short and prefers the straight moneyline to any prop.

Guy Boston recommended a two‑fer in Fenway: play the full‑game over 10 runs and back the Red Sox on the money line. Weather is doing the heavy lifting—70‑degree temps with a steady breeze blowing out to right historically bumps home‑run production in Boston by double digits—and neither starter scares him. Rookie Emerson Hancock owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and sub‑13 % strikeout rate through his first handful of big‑league outings, while Sean Newcomb, though coming off three solid starts (2.95 FIP in that span), still walks too many hitters (career 11 % BB‑rate) to be considered safe. Boston sits top‑8 in wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, and Guy expects them to tee off on Hancock’s mediocre four‑seam/slider combo. Seattle’s bats just posted back‑to‑back eight‑run games but remain 20th in hard‑hit rate; Guy thinks they regress yet still scratch out a few off Newcomb and a mid‑tier Sox bullpen. He projects 11–12 total runs with Boston winning something like 7‑5.

Guy Boston advised taking Wilyer Abreu OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs despite the ‑150 juice on DraftKings. Although Abreu has cooled off lately (only 3‑for‑14 on this prop his last 14 games), the matchup metrics are too good to ignore. The rookie owns a .297 average and 168.3 wRC+ against right‑handed pitching, significantly higher than his overall .274 / 149.5 line. He just cleared this number last night with three hits and a run. On the mound is Emerson Hancock, throwing 51.8 % sinkers—a pitch Abreu obliterates to the tune of a .469 wOBA and only 12.5 % K‑rate. Hancock’s tiny MLB sample is ugly: 12.71 ERA, .462 AVG, .539 wOBA overall, and an even worse .500 AVG / .543 wOBA versus left‑handed bats (15 faced). Abreu also has a modest track record versus Seattle (3‑for‑6 on this prop, 2.17 average). With elite platoon splits and a rookie pitcher who cannot retire lefties, Guy Boston called the juice worth laying.

Johnny Venezia said fantasy managers should be on alert with Rafael Devers because the early skills simply are not matching the draft‑day price. Devers is sitting on a .228 batting average with just one homer and a career‑worst 31 % strike‑out rate. His 98 wRC+ is the lowest he has ever posted through mid‑April, which Venezia attributed to either age‑related decline or a tweak in approach. While the exit‑velocity readings remain strong, Venezia warned that drafters expecting a no‑doubt 30‑homer anchor may need to temper expectations or explore trade offers before the market fully adjusts.

Bevilacqua reported that Dimers’ simulations recommend Under 10.5 runs (−118 DraftKings) in the Mariners‑Red Sox clash at 6:45 PM ET. The model outputs a 59.4% probability and a 5.3% edge, projecting both offenses to combine for only 9.9 runs on average once weather and bullpen freshness are factored in. Any total above 10 provides what the site flags as a top‑tier Wednesday edge.

Zerillo bet Over 9.5 runs (would play to 10 at -110) for Wednesday’s Mariners‑Red Sox matchup. He rates both starters as No. 5 types: Emerson Hancock (career 5.52 FIP, projected 4.54‑4.81) and Sean Newcomb (career 4.58 xFIP, projected 4.11‑4.47). Newcomb’s 23.5% K‑rate masks chronic wildness (11.1% BB%, 85 Pitching+), a poor fit against a Seattle offense that walks 10.8% of the time (third‑highest in MLB) and strikes out 5% less on the road. Hancock is throwing his below‑average sinker 52% of the time and has cut slider usage, leaving Boston’s lineup to feast on a changeup that owns just 88 Stuff+. Fenway’s short porch plus middling middle relievers (Seattle bullpen 18th in xFIP, Boston 12th) further tilt the game toward runs; Zerillo’s model makes the total 10.51.

Kenny G pegged Seattle as a prime underdog (+115) at Fenway. Bryce Miller has allowed just one earned run across his past two starts (10 IP, 13‑2 K‑BB), and the Mariners bullpen sits seventh in MLB with a 3.30 ERA. Seattle’s suddenly awakened offense has produced 8, 1, 11 and 5 runs its last four and is now tied for 12th in scoring with a respectable 13th‑ranked OBP. On the other side, Brayan Bello makes his first appearance off the IL; Kenny cautioned that a 25‑year‑old debuting late carries unknown pitch‑count limits and rust risk. Boston’s pen is shaky (4.47 ERA), and despite a top‑10 seasonal scoring mark, the Red Sox mustered only 4, 4, 4 and 10 runs against lowly Chicago, dampening confidence heading into a far stiffer matchup. With Miller rolling and Seattle’s lineup clicking, Kenny called the M’s a strong candidate for his “Dog of the Day.”

Kyle Purviance said he is targeting Bryce Miller’s strikeout over on Tuesday because Boston’s projected lineup is a nightmare against high‑velocity four‑seamers, the pitch Miller throws 39% of the time. Purviance dug into Baseball Savant and found every qualified Red Sox hitter owns at least a 19% strike‑out rate versus four‑seamers, with several north of 30% (top end 44% and 33%). Boston also grades poorly against Miller’s other primary offerings—sinker, curveball, and splitter—which make up another 31% of his repertoire. Add in Fenway’s friendly called‑strike zone and the fact that Miller has flashed a 27% K‑rate since last August, and Kyle expects books to open at 5.5 Ks; he would play the over up to 6.5 at plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Red Sox money line, noting Boston ranks top‑five in at‑bats per game and sits just outside the top‑10 in batting average. Seattle, by contrast, is bottom‑10 overall and hitting under .200 in night games, and its bullpen has been unreliable. Boston has also maintained the historical edge in this matchup and is turning singles into extra‑base knocks while homering at a healthy clip. Those edges, plus Fenway’s friendly confines, tilt the matchup toward the home side.

Data Skrive highlighted that numberFire’s projection engine gives the Mariners a 58.84% chance to beat Boston on Tuesday even though the betting market has Seattle a +114 underdog (implied win probability 46.7%). That 12‑point gap between model and market represents one of the largest edges on the board. Bettors following the model would grab the Mariners moneyline, wagering on Bryce Miller’s form and a right‑hand–heavy lineup facing Brayan Bello in hitter‑friendly Fenway. The pick is strictly value‑driven off numberFire’s win‑probability surplus.

Zerillo projected only 8.46 total runs in Mariners‑Red Sox and advised locking in Under 9 if you can still grab -110. He expects Brayan Bello’s sharpened slider, 98 mph heater and improved infield defense to suppress Seattle contact, while Bryce Miller’s four above‑average pitches offset his command issues enough to keep Boston from a crooked number. Cooler early‑season temps at Fenway plus Boston’s bullpen advantage also fed the model toward the Under.

Sean Zerillo backed Boston on the moneyline so long as the price stays -130 or better. His projection makes the Red Sox -138 favorites thanks to several edges: Brayan Bello’s velocity jumped to 98 mph during his final rehab start and his command grades (107 Pitching+, 114 Location+ on the slider) are at career‑best levels. Boston’s infield defense has been overhauled—Carlos Narvaez (+2 DRS), Trevor Story and Alex Bregman replace the error‑prone Connor Wong, Rafael Devers and David Hamilton—further boosting Bello’s heavy ground‑ball profile (53.9% career). Offensively, the Sox project to a 110 wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching while Seattle’s Bryce Miller owns stark splits away from T‑Mobile (4.41 road xFIP) and against left‑handed bats (4.81 xFIP, 12.9% K‑BB%). Miller’s walk rate is up to 11.6% with an 89 Location+, giving Boston additional paths to run production. Zerillo summed it up: pitching edge plus defensive upgrade plus lineup advantage equals Boston value down to -130.

Peterson grabbed Seattle +118 and Over 9 (he made Mariners -108, total 9.6). Brayan Bello’s first MLB start of 2025 follows four shaky minor‑league tune‑ups (7.07 ERA) and last year’s middling 4.49 ERA with 1.4 HR/9. He now faces a Mariners offense averaging 5.0 road runs (6th‑best). Bryce Miller counters with a 3.43 ERA, 3.08 FIP and only one homer surrendered in four starts. Fenway’s hitter‑friendly backdrop plus a vulnerable Boston bullpen convinced Peterson both the side and total are mis‑priced.

Scott Reichel went the other way, calling 9.5 too high. He highlighted that Seattle’s recent scoring binge is padded by extra‑inning explosions—eight of their last 19 runs came in the 10th frame. In regulation, the M’s remain a bottom‑third lineup. Miller owns a tidy 3.43 ERA and has surrendered just one run over his last 10 innings, while Boston’s bats have cooled, managing four runs or fewer in three straight. Reichel conceded Fenway’s wind is out but said it is not strong enough to justify a number this lofty when both starters project six solid innings. He sees a 4‑3 or 5‑2 type game and therefore played the under.

Malcolm Bamford preferred the over 9.5 in Mariners‑Red Sox. He acknowledged Brayan Bello is an easy guy to root for but questioned laying −130 in a season debut after a spring‑training setback likely keeps his pitch count in check. Bryce Miller has been sharper lately yet still issues multiple walks per outing, and Bamford distrusts Seattle’s bullpen once Miller exits. He also noted the wind is blowing out toward right field and both offenses have shown pop—particularly Boston’s top half and Seattle’s revived middle order. With an untested Bello, a shaky relief corps behind him, and potential free passes from Miller, Bamford projected double‑digit runs and tagged the over as his preferred play.