Guy Boston said the Blue Jays are live dogs to avoid a sweep and prefers coupling their +115 money‑line price with the game OVER 8.5. Houston’s bats have scored 12 runs in two games (7 and 5) while Toronto’s slumbering offense is due, ranking top‑6 in barrel rate despite middling results this week. Both clubs boast top‑10 bullpens, so Boston wants his exposure early—he approved a First‑Five OVER but still likes the full total, noting Bowden Francis’ 1.42 WHIP and Ryan Gusto’s 11 % walk rate make crooked numbers realistic in the first four innings. If Toronto merely matches Houston’s recent output, the total cashes, and the plus‑money side pays off what he calls a ‘get‑away‑day weird slate bounce‑back spot’.

Francis advised backing Toronto on the money line, citing a quirky but profitable trend: Houston has dropped nine straight games as a favorite immediately after a win. He likes the current matchup because the Jays bring a top‑5 bullpen ERA into the series, whereas Houston starters have logged fewer than five innings in four of their last six. With the Astros over‑valued again, Brad is looking to ride the anti‑trend at plus money.

The tout suggested the UNDER because neither lineup is clicking. Over the last 15 days Toronto sits 25th in team OPS (.640) and scores 3.46 runs a game, while Houston is mid‑pack with a .697 OPS and 4.38 runs. Both bullpens are strong—Toronto 3.69 ERA (14th) and Houston 2.80 ERA (4th). Historical trend backs the stance: seven of the last ten Jays‑Astros contests have finished under. With Gusto and Bowden Francis both capable of working into the middle innings, a low‑scoring tilt is forecast.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Houston on the money line, highlighting multiple edges. The Astros have surrendered only 20 homers all season (t‑6th), while Toronto’s staff has allowed 31 (t‑27th). Offensively, the Jays rank 23rd in OPS with runners aboard (.639) against Houston’s .679. Rookie right‑hander Emilio Gusto owns a 3.18 ERA and a strikeout per inning, working deeper into games and preserving a bullpen that carries a 2.80 ERA (4th). Houston has won six of the last eight meetings and enters on its best form of 2025, whereas Toronto is averaging just 3.46 runs over the past two weeks.

Beermakersfan said Yordan Alvarez is the perfect tournament one‑off because recent quiet box scores should keep his ownership down even though nothing is wrong with the bat. He reminded listeners that Alvarez wrecked right‑handed pitching in 2023 (391 wOBA, .262 ISO) and noted that Chris Bassitt is still giving up a 58.5 % hard‑contact rate to lefties. For anyone who cares about batter vs pitcher data, Alvarez has five homers in just 19 career at‑bats against Bassitt. The combination of elite platoon numbers, a friendly minute‑made roof, and likely single‑digit ownership makes Alvarez a premium DFS leverage play on Tuesday.

For the third straight start Zerillo is betting on Ryan Gusto, recommending Houston as short home underdogs (available +100) versus Bowden Francis. Gusto sports a 4.02 xERA and 3.69 xFIP through his first MLB turns with metrics that pop: 107 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.55 botERA. He throws at least six pitches, all grading out favorably after gaining 1 mph on his fastballs and 2 mph on the changeup since Triple‑A. Although Gusto was an 11th‑round afterthought, Zerillo likens his early data to last season’s Spencer Schwellenbach breakout and projects him roughly a half‑run better than Francis, who carries a career 5.09 FIP and sub‑90 Stuff+ profile. With the Astros’ deeper bullpen and plus odds at home, Zerillo sees clear value on Houston’s moneyline and would play them to -103.

Peterson pounded Under 8.5 (model 8.1) in Blue Jays‑Astros. He likes both starters: Ryan Gusto has delivered a 3.18 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and only 1.6 BB/9 over 17 innings since leaving the bullpen, while Bowden Francis owns a 2.20 ERA and sub‑2.0 BB/9 dating to the 2024 All‑Star break. Offensively, Houston ranks 22nd in scoring and Toronto averages just 3.1 road runs, giving little margin for an Over. With two in‑form pitchers and middling lineups, he expects runs at a premium.

Despite the Under cashing in each of Houston’s last three games, Croucher recommended taking Over 8.0 runs. His projection spits out 8.4 expected runs thanks to a shaky Astros starter (Ronel Blanco, 6.48 ERA, five hits and three walks in his last outing) and a Blue Jays lineup that is beginning to click—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 6‑for‑17 (.353) over his last five games and the club still ranks top‑10 in hard‑hit rate. Croucher believes Bassitt’s ultra‑low ERA is unsustainable (league‑average FIP components) and Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left offers extra homer upside against two fly‑ball prone staffs. With both bullpens having thrown meaningful innings the previous night and warm indoor hitting conditions, he sees enough combined paths for these offenses to push the total past the posted eight.

Croucher said the model shows slight value grabbing Toronto at +1.5 runs, citing Chris Bassitt’s form (2‑0, 0.77 ERA; 10 strikeouts over five shutout innings vs. Atlanta on 4/16) and the club’s recent success in close road games. The Blue Jays have covered the run line in four of their last five away contests, netting backers 1.12 units. He expects Bassitt to work deep enough to neutralize Houston’s surging bats and take pressure off a bullpen that allowed zero runs in its last two appearances before Monday’s loss. On the Houston side, Ronel Blanco has issued three walks in two of his last three starts and managed only one strikeout in St. Louis, giving Toronto a path to keep things tight even if the Astros ultimately prevail.

Jay Croucher said his NBC Sports Bet model makes Houston a -130 favorite yet the market is dealing -114, so he is backing the Astros on the moneyline. He acknowledged Chris Bassitt’s sparkling 0.77 ERA, but noted the underlying matchup tilts toward Houston: the Astros’ offense finally showed signs of life in Monday’s opener when the bottom three hitters combined to go 5‑for‑10 with three RBIs in a 7‑0 win that leveled their record at 11‑11. Toronto’s bullpen was forced to cover four innings in that shutout, potentially leaving them thin behind Bassitt. Meanwhile Ronel Blanco’s 6.48 ERA makes bettors nervous, but Croucher pointed out Houston is 7‑3 in its last ten home games versus right‑handed starters and Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions boost their run expectancy. With the Blue Jays just 4‑5 on the road despite recent ATS success, Croucher trusts the Astros’ improving lineup and home‑field advantage to overcome Bassitt’s early‑season form.

Kenny G liked Toronto at −105 behind Chris Bassitt, citing the 36‑year‑old’s sizzling 0.77 ERA and 10‑strikeout gem against Atlanta last time out. While the Jays’ lineup has underwhelmed on the scoreboard (tied for 21st in runs), Kenny pointed out they rank fourth in batting average and sixth in OBP, suggesting positive run regression. Houston’s problems run deeper: the Astros sit 24th in both runs and batting average and send Ronel Blanco to the mound with a 6.48 ERA and at least one homer allowed in each of his last two outings. Even though Houston’s bullpen is top‑four (2.80 ERA), Kenny believes Bassitt can work deep enough to minimize that advantage, and Toronto’s own relief corps has been serviceable at 3.69. Given comparable pens but a clear starting‑pitching edge and the Astros’ cold bats, he called the Jays a value side worth betting.

Eric Lindquist fired on the First‑5 under 4.5 runs (‑114) in Blue Jays–Astros. His model spits out just 3.7 early‑inning runs because Chris Bassitt is dealing (0.77 ERA, 33.3 % K, 5.4 % BB) despite already facing four top‑15 offenses in Atlanta, Boston, New York and Baltimore. Houston’s current lineup offers little left‑handed punch to bother him, and Minute Maid’s expansive right‑field power alley further mutes scoring. While Ronel Blanco is a scary fly‑ball righty, Lindquist noted Toronto’s lineup is built to torch lefties (150 wRC+ vs LHP) but sits closer to league average against right‑handers. Seeing books hang 4.5 instead of the 3.5 he expected, he locked in the under as a standalone bet.

Brian Howard recommended loading up on Yordan Alvarez home‑run, total‑bases, and RBI props against Chris Bassitt. In just 23 career at‑bats versus Bassitt, Alvarez is eight‑for‑23 with five home runs—good for a 1.304 SLG. Howard emphasized that Bassitt’s pitch mix (sinker/cutter usage north of 55%) feeds directly into Alvarez’s wheelhouse: Yordan owns +6 run value against sinkers this season with a .421 xBA and a 65% hard‑hit rate, while cutters have yielded a .556 xSLG against him. Although Bassitt has been sharp overall in 2025, Howard expects at least one mistake over the plate in hitter‑friendly Minute Maid Park. With the game total sitting at 8.5 and Houston projected for more than four runs, he views Alvarez as a priority in DFS stacks and will play the home‑run prop down to +275 as well as 2+ total bases at plus money.

Bo Bichette owns a 2‑for‑6 line with a homer off Ronel Blanco and has hits in 10 of 12. The analyst likes him in single‑hit parlays or HR long‑shots.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Astros on the money line. The tout pointed to Ronel Blanco’s confidence boost from last year’s no‑hitter versus Toronto and Houston’s recent 4‑1 record in the last five head‑to‑head meetings. While Chris Bassitt owns an eye‑popping 0.77 ERA over 23 innings, the Blue Jays have struggled badly with men in scoring position (0.619 OPS, tied for 26th). Houston is at least middle of the pack in that split (0.668, 18th) and grinds out at‑bats better. Both clubs own top‑10 bullpens (Astros 2.87 ERA, Jays 3.44), but the tout believes Houston’s slightly better situational hitting plus Blanco’s track record gives them the edge.

The tout also played the full‑game Under, detailing how both rotations and pens are carrying the load. Bassitt has surrendered only two earned runs all season, while Blanco posted a 2.80 ERA last year and is expected to stabilize. Offensively, Toronto ranks 19th in OPS (.699) and Houston 26th (.630). Seven of the last 10 matchups between these clubs have stayed Under and four of Houston’s last five games overall cashed the Under. With two top‑10 relief units ready to lock it down late, a low‑scoring script is projected.

At –110, Martin sided with Houston because the matchup history screams Astros. Ronaldo Blanco famously no‑hit Toronto on Opening Day last year, and the Jays still rank best in MLB versus lefties but bottom‑10 versus righties like Blanco. On the flip side, Chris Bassett has been tattooed by Houston—17 hits in just 9 innings across two 2024 starts. With both clubs hovering around .500, Martin trusts the batter‑pitcher splits and home field, recommending Astros moneyline while listing Blanco.

Scott Reichel echoed the Bassitt edge and took Toronto at even money. He noted Houston’s .205 team average at home and league‑low 78 wRC+ in their own park, while Bassitt has been nails on the road (0.58 ERA, 24.1 % K rate). Ronel Blanco owns an 8.64 ERA in two Minute Maid appearances, and his 36 % fly‑ball clip could spell trouble against Toronto’s right‑handed power. Given that the Blue Jays have the better record, better current form, and the clear starting‑pitching advantage, Reichel felt ‘any plus‑number or pick‑em on Toronto is an autoplay’.

Malcolm Bamford backed the Blue Jays at –105, calling Chris Bassitt ‘bomb‑proof’ after allowing just two earned runs across 25.2 innings (0.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Ronel Blanco’s 1.48 WHIP and escalating walk rate (10.9 %) signal volatility; he has surrendered 13 runs over his last three outings. Bamford also prefers Toronto’s current vibe—happier clubhouse, top‑10 wRC+ versus righties—while Houston’s bats remain flat at Minute Maid (3.8 RPG at home). With the pitching edge clearly in Bassitt’s corner and the moneyline near even, Bamford sees the Jays as the sharper side to close out Tuesday tickets.

Donnie Rightside recommended the full‑game under 7.5 in Houston and a small money‑line sprinkle on the Astros because of Hunter Brown’s stellar form. Brown has spun 24 2⁄3 innings over four starts with a 1.50 ERA and 3.02 xFIP, never allowing more than two earned runs. Kevin Gausman is a steady veteran on the other side, and Toronto’s bullpen ranked top‑10 in xFIP entering the week, so DRS is not expecting late fireworks either. Houston’s offense remains sluggish—Yordan Alvarez still searching for his first homer this homestand and the 5‑through‑9 spots combining for a sub‑.280 OBP—further supporting a low‑scoring script. Rightside’s read: Brown’s current swing‑and‑miss stuff plus Houston’s quiet bats equal a tight 3‑2 type game, making under 7.5 and Astros ‑120 both actionable.

The same Data Skrive projection that calls for a 4‑3 Houston win leans to the Under on the 7.5‑run total. Both clubs enter with sub‑4.00 staff ERAs (Astros 3.82, Blue Jays 3.50) and Toronto’s rotation is punching out hitters at a league‑best 10.5 K/9. Houston games have stayed Under in five of their last ten despite facing higher totals, and Daikin Park reduces homers by roughly 8% compared to league average. The Blue Jays remain power‑starved (just six homers in their last ten) while Houston’s lineup, outside of Pena and Altuve, owns a collective .305 OBP over that span. A strikeout‑heavy matchup with two reliable bullpens and middling offenses supports a play on the Under.

Data Skrive projected Houston to win 4‑3 and advised laying the modest –136 moneyline. Their model gives the Astros a 57% win probability versus the implied 57.6% price, creating a small edge on the home side. Houston has already been favored 13 times this season and, while only 6‑7 overall, they are 3‑3 specifically when priced between –130 and –140. The Astros’ offense is averaging 4.5 runs over its last 10 games with Jeremy Pena (11‑game hit streak, .297 last 10) and Jose Altuve (3 HR) heating up. Toronto, meanwhile, scores just 3.9 runs per game, has been an underdog in 15 contests (7‑8 record) and strikes out at a 10.5 K/9 clip as a lineup. With Houston’s bullpen posting a 3.82 ERA and Daikin Park historically suppressing power, the write‑up favors the Astros holding a narrow lead and closing it out.

Kenny G recommended grabbing the Blue Jays at +120 in Houston, arguing that the market is over‑respecting Hunter Brown and underrating Kevin Gausman. Gausman sports a 2.49 ERA and has fanned 16 with ZERO walks over his last two outings while navigating murderers’ rows such as Baltimore, the Mets, Boston and Atlanta. Brown has been lights‑out (1.50 ERA) but now faces a Toronto lineup that, despite scoring concerns (t‑20th in runs), ranks 4th in batting average and 6th in OBP—metrics Kenny believes foreshadow run production. He also pointed to a Jays bullpen holding a 3.44 ERA versus Houston’s 2.87, framing the relief matchup as essentially a wash. Meanwhile, the Astros offense is sputtering: 23rd in runs, 27th in slugging, 24th in batting average (.222) with Jose Altuve their only reliable stick. Kenny expects Gausman’s strike‑throwing to feast on that cold lineup, giving Toronto a clear path to an outright win. He noted that the elite pitching on both sides makes an UNDER 7.5 look “pretty decent,” but the plus‑money moneyline is his primary angle.

Echoing Reichel’s view, Lonte Smith will play the UNDER as long as the total is 7.5 or higher. Smith reminded listeners the network has long tracked Kevin Gausman’s dramatic home/road split—he owns a 2.89 ERA on the highway since 2022 versus 4.15 at Rogers Centre. Brown, meanwhile, has allowed just four combined runs in four starts and is coming off back‑to‑back scoreless road gems. Smith pointed out Houston’s lineup is still searching for rhythm (only 3.8 runs per game at Minute Maid) and that Toronto’s bats looked lifeless in an extra‑inning loss to Seattle on Saturday. With Brown inducing a 56 % ground‑ball rate and Gausman’s splitter generating a 38 % whiff rate, he sees both starters cruising into the seventh and expects any opening total above seven to close lower by first pitch.

Scott Reichel is betting the full‑game UNDER, projecting the number to open at 7 or 7.5. He highlighted Kevin Gausman’s 2.49 ERA and 31 % K rate along with Hunter Brown’s 1.50 ERA and active 12‑inning scoreless streak. Neither offense is clicking: Toronto mustered just four runs in two losses to Seattle, and Houston ranks 21st in wRC+ through Sunday. Reichel noted Brown finished last season with a 2.83 ERA over his final 10 starts and has carried that form into 2025, while Gausman continues to dominate on the road, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 19 of his last 22 away outings. Because both bullpens enter rested after Sunday blowouts, he prefers the full‑game under rather than isolating the first five.

Cash Out Sports Picks favored the Under, highlighting Houston’s lack of gap and long‑ball power plus top‑10 bullpen ERA. Toronto’s relievers are one of MLB’s best at limiting hits, and the Jays’ offense is light on home‑run threats of its own. With both relief units capable of shortening the game and the Astros’ bats ice‑cold, they expect a low‑scoring contest that stays beneath the total.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Blue Jays moneyline. Toronto sits top‑10 in batting average and runs per game and tends to hit better on the road. Houston is dead last in doubles, near the bottom in overall average, and has seen power vanish. With the Astros’ lineup struggling for extra‑base pop and Toronto’s offense humming, the edge, in their view, falls firmly to the Jays.

Houston is projected to clip Toronto 4‑3, turning a ‑140 moneyline into value. Hunter Brown (2‑1, 1.50 ERA) is generating a 34% whiff rate with his curveball and now pitches in spacious Daikin Park. Kevin Gausman (2.49 ERA) counters, and both lineups have underperformed preseason power projections, ranking bottom‑12 in HR/FB. The model therefore favors the Under 7.5, anticipating a classic pitchers’ duel decided late by Houston’s superior contact skills (MLB‑best 13% team strikeout rate).

Josh Shepardson said Hunter Brown should anchor cash‑game lineups tonight, citing ace‑level underlying numbers through four 2025 starts (1.50 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 0.83 WHIP, 25.3 K%, 58.3 GB%, 115 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 116 Pitching+). He added that Toronto ranks just 22nd in wRC+ (92) against right‑handed pitching and strikes out 22.7% of the time. Vegas backs the spot with Houston sitting -140 in a game total of only 7.5 runs, reinforcing Brown’s win equity and run‑prevention outlook.

THE BAT X (Derek Carty) highlighted Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s OVER 0.5 HR prop at +550. The model assigns a 17% home‑run probability, creating a $13.36 expected value. Minute Maid Park grades as the 7th‑best stadium for right‑handed power, and Guerrero’s underlying barrel rate (10.8%) far outpaces his early‑season HR total, suggesting positive regression.