Guy Boston recommended taking Ernie Clement under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Mets lefty David Peterson, citing Clement's poor splits against left-handed pitching (.230 average, 72.6 WRC+). Clement's production significantly drops against lefties and key secondary pitches like Peterson's slider and changeup further exacerbate his struggles. Although Guy acknowledged Clement's decent performance against Peterson's primary pitches (sinker, fastball), his numbers aren't strong enough to cause major worry. With an encouraging line priced around -135, Guy Boston views the under as a solid betting opportunity against Clement facing a lefty pitcher.

Guy Boston likes Toronto at plus-money (+130 odds) against the Mets, emphasizing David Peterson's struggles against right-handed batters and Toronto's lineup being predominantly right-handed. Toronto hits lefties poorly historically, but Peterson struggles significantly versus righties, which plays into Toronto's strength. Despite cold and windy conditions reducing the likelihood of home runs, he anticipates Toronto taking advantage through smaller, incremental hits around the ballpark. He sees a roughly 15-cent value advantage at +130, noting the line should probably be closer to around +115.

Guy Boston recommended cautiously fading Toronto's bats today, specifically citing their historical struggles against left-handed pitching. Facing off against left-hander David Peterson—who looked sharp in his first start against Miami with 9 strikeouts across six innings and only two solo home runs allowed—Guy viewed Toronto as vulnerable. Although he acknowledged Toronto having more power than Miami, he highlighted their persistent issues hitting lefties which made Peterson a particularly tough matchup. As such, he saw merit in under propositions involving Toronto hitters, especially early in the matchup while facing Peterson.

Kyle Purviance expressed strong interest in returning to Juan Soto's RBI props despite recent near misses, particularly highlighting the appealing plus 550 payout associated with Soto hitting two or more RBIs. He attributes his stance partly to his belief that Chris Bassett is overrated as a pitcher, suggesting he expects Soto to bounce back from recent umpire-influenced disappointments. Given Soto's consistent ability to generate opportunities, Purviance expects positive regression from these unlucky outcomes and identifies him as a good value proposition.

Kyle Purviance sees good betting potential for Vladimir Guerrero's total base or RBI props against Griffin Canning. Citing that the Blue Jays lineup is hitting right-handed pitching well recently and expressing his general negativity toward Canning, whom he is not fond of as a pitcher, Purviance indicated targeting Guerrero specifically as a player likely offering value in associated player prop markets.

Dylan Rockford confidently chose the Mets money line (-124) as his lock play. His model has the Mets priced significantly higher (-140), creating value. Griffin Canning, despite historical volatility, showed promise in his first start. Rockford also mentioned the Mets' bullpen excellence (ranked second-best currently), solid recent offensive momentum, and a revenge factor against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who previously pitched for New York. Given these multiple favorable factors, Rockford believes Mets have a strong edge and clear winning path at the current odds.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically backed Pete Alonso as his home run pick against former teammate Chris Bassitt. Alonso has been performing impressively at the plate recently, and Rockford emphasized the added motivational factor going against an ex-teammate. Given Alonso's potent bat, recent hot streak, and familiarity with Bassitt, Rockford strongly supported the Mets slugger as a confident home run wager.

Dylan Rockford sees strong betting value in backing the Mets money line at -124, with his analytical models pricing the Mets closer to -140 favorites. Rockford liked Griffin Canning's first outing and praised the Mets' bullpen, currently second-best in MLB. Conversely, he expressed skepticism towards the Blue Jays' bullpen reliability and Chris Bassitt, who previously showed volatile performances during his time in New York. Given the Mets' improved recent offensive form highlighted by Pete Alonso's home run hitting, and their bullpen advantage, Rockford confidently backs the Mets at the current price.

Greg Peterson picks the Mets -122 and the over at 7.5 runs, given Griffin Canning's diminishing strikeout ability (career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, 5.19 ERA, and 1.6 HR/9). He’ll pitch against ex-teammate Chris Bassitt, who's been steady (3.82 ERA) since joining Toronto but faces the challenge of his team's shaky bullpen, the worst in the AL last year (4.82 ERA) and even worse to start this season (5.59 ERA). The Mets lineup, while absent Juan Soto this year, was still top-10 in runs per game during last season, setting up a potential high-scoring matchup.

Derek Carty recommended betting over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 odds) on Kevin Gausman as he holds a 61% projection of succeeding with the bet, yielding an expected value of $18.42. The model pointed to the elite pitch framing skills of Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays catcher who will be catching for Gausman, greatly enhancing strikeout potential. Additionally, Gausman's consistent and generous workload since last season further supports the recommendation.

Eric Lindquist expects Anthony Santander to bounce back offensively despite a rocky start. Lindquist highlighted Santander's concerning early-season barrel rate of just 5%, significantly below last year's 11.7%, and his hard-hit rate dipping from 41.6% down to 30%. Despite these early quality contact issues, Lindquist predicts positive regression, underscoring Santander's favorable historical performance from the left side of the plate, combined with today's favorable wind conditions blowing out to right field. He strongly recommends betting Santander to record at least one hit as a high-confidence parlay piece at -146 odds, advising not going beyond -160.

Luis Torrens is highlighted by the Dimers model as a valuable prop bet to record an RBI against the Blue Jays. Torrens has a projected 28.7% probability of getting an RBI, which provides a significant betting edge of 2.1% given his current odds at +275. This value indicates that the betting market is likely underestimating Torrens' chances, offering potential positive returns for savvy bettors.

The Dimers simulation model pinpoints Alan Roden as a valuable betting proposition to record at least one hit in the Blue Jays versus Mets matchup. Roden's hit probability stands at 56.6%, representing a betting edge of 2.1% against current odds set at -120. This indicates favorable market pricing, making this prop bet appealing due to its positive expected value.

Dimers identified Mark Vientos to record an RBI as a strong prop bet with positive expected value. Their model projects Vientos with a 37.4% probability of recording an RBI, giving this prop an edge of 2.4% based on current odds of +185. This suggests the market is undervaluing Vientos' opportunity for offensive production, making this bet appealing for bettors seeking positive expected value.

Despite Mets' recent offensive struggles, Dylan Rockford expects the team to finally perform well offensively against Toronto. He acknowledged the Mets inconsistency thus far—hitting under .200—but cited confidence specifically in Juan Soto leading a bounce-back series. Though Rockford shared positive views towards Kevin Gausman for Toronto, Soto's potential big series is the key factor in predicting Mets success and recommending them as a betting play, combined with his recommendation of the full game under eight runs.

Lonte Smith supports backing the Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman against the Mets, highlighting Gausman's solid initial outing (2 earned runs across 6 innings pitched). Smith mentioned Toronto's excellent hitting (.300 team batting average) and their four consecutive unders, reflecting strong pitching form. Furthermore, Smith pointed to the Mets' inconsistent offense, batting under .200 so far, providing a clear advantage to the Blue Jays in this matchup and making them a strong betting recommendation.

Data Skrive calls attention to Pete Alonso as a standout DFS option and season-long fantasy play against Toronto this Friday. Alonso currently leads the Mets with eight RBI—eighth-best across MLB—and has connected for two home runs this season. He's hitting at a solid .286 batting average and has shown clutch ability early, notably delivering a recent three-run homer against Miami. Given his strong output thus far, his prominent role in the Mets lineup, plus a favorable home environment at Citi Field to capitalize on opposing pitching, Alonso offers attractive DFS upside in this matchup.

Data Skrive identifies Mets' Brandon Nimmo as a tantalizing prop bet to homer at very appealing +600 odds. Nimmo's powerful start—with 2 home runs through 6 games, a strong 33.3% home run rate—makes him a fantastic bet to continue his hot streak versus Blue Jays pitching.

NBC Sports Bet's projection strongly suggests taking the Mets to cover the run line of -1.5 against the Blue Jays. Supporting factors include the strong pitching start for Tylor Megill, who posted a 1.80 ERA in his first outing of the season, and a strong Mets pitching staff that currently has a 2.38 team ERA—significantly better than Toronto's 4.43. Although New York has struggled offensively (.188 team batting average), Pete Alonso's recent four-RBI game indicates their key hitter is heating up. With the Mets playing at home and their ace Megill on the mound, NBC Sports Bet sees value in backing the Mets on the run line rather than the moneyline.

Data Skrive's analysis predicts a home victory for the Mets against the Blue Jays. New York is slightly favored at -133, while Toronto is a minor underdog at +112. The model strongly points toward a low-scoring game at Citi Field, leaning toward the total run tally staying under 7.5.

Data Skrive sees George Springer as an appealing fantasy option heading into the matchup against the Mets, based directly on his stellar early-season offensive output. Springer leads his team with an impressive .429 batting average and ranks among the top 35 players in MLB for RBI thus far. Given his strong start and consistency at the plate, expecting Springer to continue producing against Mets starter Tylor Megill and New York's bullpen makes sense, suggesting solid DFS and season-long fantasy relevance for this game.

Data Skrive highlights Andres Gimenez as a strong DFS pick and fantasy play in the upcoming game against the Mets. Gimenez enters the matchup on a seven-game hitting streak, batting .308 over that span with three home runs, two doubles, three walks, and six RBI. Notably, Gimenez leads the Blue Jays in home runs (three total, ranking 10th in MLB) and is currently among the team's leaders in RBI (six total, ranking 23rd league-wide). His consistent recent performance and impressive power metrics present significant fantasy upside going into this matchup at Citi Field.

Michael Savio likes the Blue Jays as road underdogs (+118 moneyline) against the Mets, highlighting Toronto's hot start with four straight wins and a .288 team batting average. Veteran pitcher Kevin Gausman was excellent in his first start, allowing just two runs through six innings and is coming off a dominant 2024 season on the road (8-5, 2.51 ERA). On the other hand, the Mets offense is struggling badly, hitting a collective .188 average, with key players Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Mark Vientos off to slow starts. The Mets' pitcher tonight, Tylor Megill, had an impressive debut, but Savio dismisses that as being inflated by facing a weaker Houston lineup. He expects regression tonight against a strong Blue Jays lineup.

Greg Peterson sees value backing the Mets at -132 and betting the over 7.5 runs (handicapped line: Mets -147, total 8.2) against the Blue Jays. Peterson notes Mets' pitcher Tylor Megill had a solid opening start (one run allowed in five innings versus Astros), though his career numbers (4.52 ERA, 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9) leave room for concern and opportunities for more scoring. On the Blue Jays' side, Kevin Gausman's notable 2024 drop in strikeouts (to 8.1 K/9) and a 3.83 ERA indicate vulnerability. With both starters having underlying question marks, Peterson likes both the Mets' moneyline and a higher-scoring contest.