Guy Boston advised taking Washington on the first-five moneyline rather than the full game. He argued that AJ Smith-Shawver’s small-sample success does not justify Atlanta’s –202 price tag because Trevor Williams has held the current Braves roster to a .257 average and .302 wOBA over 126 PA. With the Nationals’ bullpen ranking near the bottom of MLB, Boston wants to isolate the starting-pitcher matchup, where he believes the talent gap is far narrower than the market implies.

Chris Welsh warned that Patrick Corbin is still a ticking time-bomb and should only be used as a matchup-based streamer. Corbin draws the Yankees early next week and Welsh flat-out refused to start him in that spot, noting New York is top-10 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Corbin’s lone appeal is the projected follow-up start against the White Sox—an offense that sits bottom-five in OPS versus southpaws. In daily moves leagues Welsh would bench him for the Yankees and deploy him for Chicago; in weekly formats he’d rather roster 40–50 alternative one-start arms than eat both outings. The takeaway: squeeze value against true bottom feeders, but abandon ship the moment a competent lineup appears.

After Corbin struck out nine Rockies over six innings, Joe Orrico warned managers not to fall for the apparent turnaround. Corbin’s surface 3.35 ERA hides a 4.52 SIERA, mid-4 FIP/xFIP marks, an 18 % strikeout rate and 1.30 WHIP. Orrico argued this profile screams regression once fantasy players start spending FAAB, likening the situation to a trap that pays off only until you trust it. He recommended avoiding Corbin in most formats, predicting the left-hander will burn new investors as soon as tougher matchups arrive.

Guy Boston said he is fading Austin Riley under 2.5 hits + runs + RBI on Thursday. The handicap leans heavily on Trevor Williams’ splits: a .205 batting average and .225 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters this season with zero HR/9. Riley owns only 2 hits in 18 career plate appearances against Williams while striking out 44 %. Williams relies on sliders (40 %) and four-seamers (36 %), two pitches against which Riley’s wOBA plummets compared with his season baseline. Boston acknowledged Riley’s recent hot streak but trusts the combination of pitch mix, prior history, and Williams’ effectiveness versus righties to keep Riley below the 3 counting-stat threshold, even after Atlanta eventually reaches Washington’s shaky bullpen.

Malstrom advised taking the Yes-Run-First-Inning in Nationals-Braves, pointing to looming positive regression for Atlanta’s stacked lineup against Trevor Williams. Williams owns a 5.88 ERA, bloated 1.573 WHIP and is surrendering more than a hit per inning, metrics that spell trouble versus Ronald Acuna Jr. and company. Malstrom expects Atlanta’s top of the order to capitalize immediately and push a run across within the opening six outs.

Kenny G said the only playable angle in this divisional finale is the under 9. He noted both clubs are hitting like cellar-dwellers: Washington ranks 16th in runs but just 20th in batting average (.237) and 23rd in OBP (.306) while Atlanta sits 20th in runs and is 17th in average (.240). Off the eye test, the series has produced 5-4, 4-3 and 3-2 score-lines with no game clearing nine runs. On the mound, rookie AJ Smith-Shawver owns a sparkling 2.76 ERA and Atlanta has gone 4-0 in his last four starts, while Trevor Williams has at least kept opponents to four runs or fewer in seven of eight outings. Bullpens tilt under as well: Atlanta sports a 3.62 ERA and Washington’s shaky 6.86 mark is masked by its 13-8-1 UNDER road record. Venue splits reinforce it—Braves games are 12-7-2 to the UNDER at Truist Park and the Nats are 13-8-1 to the UNDER away. With neither lineup showing life and totals still hanging 8.5/9, Kenny urges bettors to lock in the UNDER rather than lay the juicy –220 moneyline or gamble on a flawed dog.

The host also recommended the full-game UNDER. He noted that totals of nine runs would have gone 2-0-1 to the under through the first three games of the set. Washington has not scored more than three runs in any of its last five games, and AJ Smith-Shawver’s current form suggests another quiet day for Nats bats. Trevor Williams’ struggles and MLB’s second-worst bullpen on Washington’s side are a concern, but Cash Out Sports Picks expects a sluggish getaway-day atmosphere. With both clubs traveling after the early afternoon start and veterans likely to sit, he likes a low-tempo contest that stays beneath the listed total.

Data Skrive’s projection engine spit out a 4-3 Braves win, enough edge to lay the steep ‑225 moneyline and play the total Under 8.5 runs. The model is leaning on the pitching mismatch: rookie AJ Smith-Shawver’s 2.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through his first six starts versus Trevor Williams’ 5.88 ERA and .292 opponent average. Atlanta’s pen has a 3.41 ERA over the last two weeks while Washington’s sits at 5.12, another reason the computer thinks run prevention favors the home side. With both clubs below .500 (Braves 21-22, Nats 18-26) but Atlanta carrying the clear arm advantage, the algorithm grades the Under at a 57% probability and the Braves ML at 65%.

Just A Bet Outside said AJ Smith-Shawver is a strong over play on 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings). Since being recalled the rookie has cleared this mark in all three starts, posting 16, 24, and 17 outs while allowing just 10 hits and 5 walks over 19 innings. He noted the 16-out game came on only 59 pitches before Smith-Shawver exited after taking a liner off the arm, underscoring the efficiency. Washington’s offense ranks bottom-10 in walk rate, batting average, and WRC+ over the last two weeks and has forced opposing right-handed starters to throw the eighth-fewest pitches per plate appearance. In this same series Bryce Elder (6 IP), Charlie Morton (7 IP), and Grant Holmes (6.1 IP) all cruised past the number, part of a run where 12 straight starters have recorded at least 16 outs against the Nats. With the Braves likely letting their rejuvenated prospect work deep again and the Nationals struggling, he expects 6+ innings and another easy over.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised laying the run-line with Atlanta. He pointed out that the Braves have won five of their last six at Truist Park and have dropped only six home games all season. Washington, meanwhile, has lost eight of its last eleven overall and five of its last seven against Atlanta. When the Nationals lose they usually lose big, with eight of their last ten defeats coming by 2-plus runs. On the mound the mismatch is stark: Trevor Williams has surrendered 13 runs in a little more than 16 innings over his last three starts (four or more runs in each outing) while Atlanta rookie AJ Smith-Shawver has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his last five appearances and has allowed just one run total in two May starts. Atlanta has won the last four games he has pitched. Washington’s staff owns the third-worst ERA in baseball and the bullpen offers little relief. All of that led the host to recommend Braves –1.5 as the best way to attack the finale.

Bettor Mark endorsed backing Spencer Strider and the Braves on the first-five run line at –0.5 runs (–133) against Washington. He called Strider "one of the best young hot pitchers in the NL" and expects a quality start against a Nationals lineup that grades out as a plus matchup for Atlanta bats. Mark likes the F5 angle because it avoids the Braves’ occasionally inconsistent late-inning bullpen; he said even one to three early runs of support should be enough given Strider’s dominance. He mentioned the alternative "Braves not to bat in the ninth" prop but made the first-five run-line his official play.

Eric Lindquist said the Nationals are the side to back at +1.5 runs because Trevor Williams’ underlying numbers are far better than his surface 5.88 ERA suggests. Williams owns a 3.89 expected ERA and a 0.322 xwOBA, while Atlanta rookie AJ Smith-Shawver is sitting on a 5.12 expected ERA, a 10.9 % walk rate, and a .362 xwOBA despite the flashier stuff. Books opened the run line at –110 across the board, signalling they expect public Braves money, but Lindquist thinks the market is mispricing the gap in command and contact quality. He called Washington +1.5 “high on the priority list” even on a full slate and plans to wait for an even better price once Atlanta money shows up.

Drew Martin laid out why he is willing to back Atlanta on a "minus-1" split wager at roughly –160. Rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver owns a 2.70 ERA and has allowed only six hits and one earned run over his last 14 innings. Atlanta also carries his No. 2–ranked bullpen by Drew’s numbers, giving them a massive late-inning edge over Washington’s league-worst relief corps. On the other side, Trevor Williams brings a 6.00 ERA, 53 hits in 41 innings, and has been tagged for 16 hits in his last 11 frames versus the Reds and Cardinals. Martin expects the Braves’ improving offense and superior pen to pull away, so he prefers the safer minus-1 structure to avoid full run-line exposure while still trimming the money-line juice.

Rob Donaldson fired two bets on CJ Abrams: over 1.5 total bases at +116 for three units and a sprinkle on the home-run prop at +500. Donaldson is fading AJ Smith-Shawver’s fastball command, noting the rookie is surrendering piles of hard contact since his brief no-hit tease. Abrams owns the Nationals’ best barrel percentage against four-seamers this season and is slugging .534 versus righties. In a warm Truist Park with the wind blowing out and a vulnerable pitcher who lives in the zone, Donaldson believes Abrams has multiple paths to two bases and legitimate long-ball upside.

Shubham Soni recommended betting Ozuna’s +235 home-run prop, stressing that Washington starter Trevor Williams owns a 5.88 ERA and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. Although Ozuna’s surface line shows just six homers with a .270 average, Soni highlighted the underlying pop: a .424 OBP, 92.6 mph average exit velocity, and .867 OPS. Against a shaky pitcher in warm May weather, Soni views the odds as strong value for bettors hunting a long-ball ticket.

Michael Savio laid out why he is laying the -1.5 run line on Atlanta at +150. Rookie right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver owns a 2.13 ERA and .182 opponent batting average inside Truist Park and has already twirled quality starts against three bottom-10 offenses. Savio noted that Washington’s lineup fits the same profile: outside of a hot CJ Abrams, every other Nats starter is batting .200 or worse over the past week, leading to a drastic dip in run production this month. On the flip side, the Braves will face Trevor Williams, whose 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP signal the veteran still hasn’t recovered the form he flashed before last year’s injury. With Atlanta’s rookie dealing and the Nats scuffling, Savio expects Smith-Shawver to work deep, the Braves’ bats to pounce on Williams, and the margin to stretch past a run.

Greg Peterson played Over 8.5 in Nationals-Braves after making the number 9.1. He noted that AJ Smith-Shawver’s glossy 2.76 ERA is hiding trouble: a 3.59 FIP and 4.1 walks per nine point to looming regression. Washington starter Trevor Williams should actually improve on his ugly 5.88 ERA (3.97 FIP, only 1.1 HR/9 and 2.6 BB/9), but Peterson reminded bettors that any gains could be undone by a Nationals bullpen that owns a league-worst 7.08 ERA. With one starter due for negative regression and the other backed by the worst relief corps in baseball, Peterson expects enough crooked numbers late to clear the posted total.

Guy Boston recommended playing Jose Tena under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in the opener against Bryce Elder. Boston expects Elder to feature his slider 35-40 % of the time— the pitch has limited right-handers to a .191 expected batting average with a 35 % whiff rate this season. Tena carries a −3 run value versus sliders and is slugging just .286 against pitches that break glove-side at 85 mph or harder. Boston added that Atlanta’s bullpen owns a top-three xFIP the past two weeks, so even if Tena avoids Elder a second time, he will still be staring at premium relief arms. With Boston already on the first-five under in this contest, he doubts Tena will collect the two counting stats needed to bust the prop.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Braves money line for May 14. He pointed to Atlanta’s 14-6 record at Truist Park, Washington’s seven-game skid, and the fact that the Nationals have covered just 46.5 % of run-lines all season. While Bryce Elder has served up eight homers in 38 innings, Mitchell Parker has been wilder on the road (22 walks) and will be supported by a bullpen that owns a 5.42 team ERA. Atlanta’s superior defense and late-inning relief give Elder the cushion he needs, so the tout expects the Braves to keep Washington’s ice-cold offense in a slump and cash the ML ticket.

Rockford hammered Under 9 (would play 8.5), pricing the game at 8.2. Atlanta has cashed nine straight unders and sits 8-2 to the under in its last ten contests, averaging only 3.4 runs across the previous five. The Braves remain mediocre against left-handed pitching, giving Mitchell Parker a fighting chance even though Rockford is no fan of the rookie. Parker’s starts are 4-2 to the under, and Bryce Elder rarely implodes while keeping the ball on the ground. With both clubs’ recent offensive malaise, he expects another low-scoring night at Truist Park.

Kenny G’s favorite angle in Nationals-Braves is Under 8.5. Despite Washington’s horrific 7.07 bullpen ERA, their lineup is even worse – dead last in slugging and scoring two or fewer in four of their last six. Rookie Mitchell Parker has flashed upside earlier in the year and faces an Atlanta offense that sits 21st in runs and has topped five runs just once in its last nine outings. Bryce Elder has been volatile (4.97 ERA) yet draws a Nationals roster trending toward rock bottom with a seven-game skid. Both clubs are under machines: Washington is 12-8 to the under on the road; Atlanta 11-7-1 at Truist Park. Kenny projected limited traffic on the bases and said any late bullpen chaos would still struggle to push the total past eight.

Eric Lindquist liked James Wood over 1.5 total bases at plus money and said a home-run sprinkle is also live against Bryce Elder. Wood sits on a 59 % hard-hit rate that ranks in the top two percent of the league, and Lindquist noted the rookie has started correcting his launch-angle issues just enough to turn those rockets into extra-base knocks. Elder, meanwhile, owns mediocre underlying numbers (14 % K-rate, .278 xBA, .454 xSLG) and leans heavily on a sinker that Wood punishes (.590 xwOBA vs RHP sinkers). Although Lindquist "never loves" Truist Park for left-center power, he still sees value because Elder allows so much contact in the air and the plus-money price bakes in that park discount. He labeled Wood’s total-bases prop his preferred play but encouraged bettors to shop for 5-1 or better on the homer market.

Lindquist suggested attacking James Wood’s home-run prop—or at minimum over 1.5 total bases—against Atlanta. Even with a sub-optimal launch angle, Wood owns a 59 % hard-hit rate that sits in the top 2 % of MLB, and Truist Park’s summer conditions boost carry to right-center. Atlanta’s projected starter (not named in the clip but expected to be Charlie Morton) has served up a .432 slugging to left-handed bats this season. Lindquist likes the combination of elite exit velocity and a homer-friendly environment, expecting plus-500 or better to be available when books open the market.

Martin advised taking Atlanta at -160, calling it the only side worth considering against a spiraling Washington club that had dropped six straight entering Tuesday. He is fading Nationals rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 13 innings with a troubling 6-to-11 K/BB ratio. Bryce Elder owns serviceable numbers for Atlanta and tossed a nine-inning shutout the only other time he faced Washington. Martin also cited a substantial bullpen advantage for the Braves, making the moderate price acceptable despite his reluctance to label it a premium play.

Malcolm Bamford preferred the Braves on the run line, citing Washington’s season-long six-game skid and Mitchell Parker’s free-fall (4, 5 and 6 earned runs his last three outings). Atlanta is 13-6 at home and Bryce Elder has covered the run line in five of seven starts as a favorite while logging six innings like clockwork. Bamford envisions a 5-2 or 6-2 Braves victory, enough to offset any total-market disagreement and still capitalize on a modest –160 moneyline that he felt was cheap.

Rob is betting three units on Washington’s moneyline. He views the Nationals lineup as dangerous 1–9 and likes its chances against Bryce Elder, whom he again labeled a "quadruple-A" emergency starter for Atlanta. Conversely, Mitchell Parker—along with MacKenzie Gore—is one of the only Nats arms delivering quality starts consistently. With the starting-pitching edge and underrated offensive depth, Donaldson believes Washington is mis-priced.

Welsh loves Spencer Schwellenbach’s strikeout prop at 5.5 and is betting the over. The rookie has cleared that number in two of his last three starts, leaning on a filthy split-finger that generated a 36% whiff rate in his most recent outing. Washington is a contact-oriented club but still sits mid-table in strikeout percentage (22.4%), and Welsh thinks the matchup tilts toward Schwellenbach because "that split will give fits to their left-handed outfielders." With no heavy juice attached, Welsh labeled it a "low strikeout total that’s too tempting to pass."

Francis played Michael Soroka under 4.5 strikeouts. Soroka brings a bloated 7.20 ERA into Atlanta, and Francis does not see him surviving long enough against the Braves’ dangerous home lineup to record five punch-outs. The combination of bad form and tough opponent drove the under call.

Lonte Smith took the full-game under 8.5 in Nationals-Braves, citing multiple cold bats. Atlanta games have cashed the under in 8 of their last 10, and Washington’s lineup ranks 28th in road OPS. Mike Soroka enters on a five-game losing streak but has given up just eight earned total in his last two, while Spencer Strider continues to miss bats despite a slight uptick in hits allowed—six-plus knocks in five straight. Smith thinks neither side will capitalize on the sporadic traffic he expects, noting Atlanta’s recent 0-for-12 performance with runners in scoring position and Washington’s .225 team average away from Nationals Park. He projected a 5-0 or 4-2 type final and advised betting the under instead of choosing a side.

Lindquist advised betting the first-five under 4.5 in Nationals-Braves. He expects rookie Spencer Schwellenbach to show positive regression from a debut marked by a 45.7% hard-hit rate and .280 xBA, pointing out his minor-league whiff rates and pitch-mix suggest sharper results are coming. On the Washington side, ex-Brave Michael Soroka has opened 2025 with a 3.37 expected slugging, .296 xwOBA and an unsustainable 25.6% strikeout clip—numbers good enough to stymie an Atlanta lineup that is missing a couple of regulars and has been pedestrian versus righties of late. Add two decent bullpens waiting in the sixth inning and Lindquist sees value in a low-scoring first half, laying up to –120 juice on the 4.5.

Malcolm Bamford laid the -1.5 with Atlanta against Washington, arguing the Nationals’ bats simply can’t threaten Spencer Strider. Washington just finished a 1-5 homestand during which they never reached four runs and looked, in Bamford’s words, ‘frankly dog-shit’. Soroka has surrendered four earned runs in identical 5.1-inning efforts his last two times out, so he doesn’t trust the right-hander to keep pace. Bamford is willing to forgive Strider’s uneven game-log because the rough outings came on the road and versus the Dodgers; at Truist Park he still sports a 2.45 ERA and 13.7 K/9. With Atlanta’s defense and bullpen advantages factored in, he projected a comfortable 4–1 or 5–1 win and told listeners to grab the run-line before it drifts north of -120.

Kenny G recommended laying the –225 with Atlanta because Washington is simply un-backable right now. The Nats have dropped six straight and hand the ball to Michael Soroka (0-2, 7.20 ERA) before turning things over to a bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 7.08 ERA. Their offense is equally uninspiring, posting 3-1-2-0-6 runs in recent games and ranking 18th in OBP and 19th in slugging. Atlanta’s lineup has struggled as well (4-3-3-2-5-3 lately, 21st in both runs and average), but Spencer Schwellenbach brings far more stability (1-3, 3.61; coming off six shutout frames vs. CIN) and the Braves’ pen has righted the ship to a serviceable 3.35 ERA. Washington is 7-12 on the road, while Atlanta is 12-6 at Truist Park. Kenny conceded the total (8.5) trends under for both clubs, yet he made the moneyline his only actionable play given the massive gap in pitching depth.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Braves to win and cover the run line against Washington. The Nationals’ offense is in free-fall and draws Michael Soroka, who has coughed up 10 hits and eight runs in just 10 MLB innings this season. Atlanta counters with rookie Hurston Schwellenbach, sporting a 2.93 ERA and .254 opponent average over 30.2 home frames. The tout stressed that the Braves must beat bottom-tier clubs to stay in the playoff chase, and this matchup versus a limp Nats lineup that averages under four road runs is the kind they should dominate. With Schwellenbach strong at Truist Park and Atlanta’s bullpen ranking top-10 in FIP, a multi-run Braves victory is the recommendation.

JD Bets targeted Grant Holmes’ control issues by betting the right-hander to issue more than 1.5 walks in Washington. Holmes is averaging 2.86 free passes per start and has topped this line in five of his last six trips to the mound (4-4-3-4-2-4). The lone miss came against Cincinnati, a team that rarely takes walks. The Nationals, however, rank ninth in MLB at 3.4 walks drawn per game and have maintained that patience even while riding a five-game skid. JD pointed out that Holmes’ recent improvement—just two walks in his last outing—likely owed more to facing another undisciplined lineup than to any real change in command. With Washington’s hitters grinding counts and Holmes historically wild (11.8% BB-rate), JD expects at least two free passes and labeled the over 1.5 walks a "cash-money" prop.

Razzle put Grant Holmes on the tournament radar, contingent on weather in Atlanta. Holmes owns a reverse-splits profile— all of his early MLB homers before last week came off righties— giving him a slight edge versus a lefty-leaning Nationals lineup. The Braves are sizeable –192 favorites, and Holmes’ 4.5 K-prop is juiced to the over. Recent form is volatile (two of last three starts disastrous), but he flashed upside with a 24-DK-point outing against the Dodgers. If the radar turns green, Razzle will sprinkle Holmes into GPP pools for sub-10 % ownership leverage.

Guy Boston advised taking Josh Bell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑140 on BetMGM. Bell has stayed under in 8 of his last 10 (0.8 H/R/RBI average), 15 of his last 20 (0.9), and 24 of 34 games on the season (71% under, 1.24 average). The switch-hitter is slashing an anemic .134 overall and just .152 against right-handers, posting a 55.4 wRC+. In six recent head-to-heads with Atlanta he’s failed in four (67% under). He now faces Grant Holmes, who is limiting lefties to a .186 average and solid underlying contact numbers. Even if Bell bats right-handed, Holmes’ overall profile remains favorable. With Bell’s form ice-cold and matchup metrics lined up, Boston sees this as a strong fade spot.

Kenny G also leaned Under 8.5 runs in the same matchup. Both clubs trend toward the Under in their current splits (Washington 11-8 road unders, Atlanta 10-7-1 home unders). Irvin’s steady ground-ball profile and Holmes’ soft landing against a light-hitting Nationals order should keep early damage in check, and Kenny trusts Atlanta’s still-above-average bullpen (3.62 ERA) to close the door if Holmes exits after five. With the Braves averaging just 3.0 runs over their past three and Washington plating one, two or zero in St. Louis, he projected a 4-3 type game and labeled the Under his preferred totals play.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game Under in Nationals-Braves, pointing to a combination of stingy starting pitching and inconsistent situational hitting. Jake Irvin has limited opponents to a .194 average over 19.1 road innings, while Grant Holmes sports a 3.00 ERA at home. Neither offense cashes in consistently—Washington’s .750 OPS with men in scoring position ranks 17th and Atlanta’s .689 sits 22nd. Seven of the last ten meetings between these clubs have stayed below the closing number, and recent Braves games are averaging just 7.2 total runs. With both starters capable of working into the sixth and Atlanta’s bullpen providing a clear late-inning edge, the tout expects another tight, low-scoring contest that fails to reach the posted total.

B Wade recommended the over 0.5 single for Keibert Ruiz. The Nationals catcher has collected hits in 27 games this year, and in 25 of those games the hit was a single. That translates to a 71 % season hit rate on this specific prop. The numbers spike on the road where Ruiz has produced a single in 13 of 16 games (81 %). With books hanging the line around even money, Wade views the play as a clear positive EV spot.

Lonte Smith echoed the value on Washington but isolated the first-five inning line to avoid the Nationals’ 5.22 bullpen ERA. Irvin has delivered at least six frames in five of his last six turns, giving up a single run or less in three of them, while Atlanta’s sticks have been ice-cold—sub-210 team average and under three runs per nine over the last ten. Holmes, meanwhile, has ceded five-plus innings in three straight and owns a 1.42 WHIP. Lonte expects Irvin’s pitch-efficient style to keep Washington within striking distance early and prefers the reduced variance of the F5 market.

Scott Reichel grabbed Nationals +145, calling the price on Atlanta and slumping starter A.J. Holmes "way too steep." Reichel highlighted Jake Irvin’s quietly solid month—four of his last five outings at three earned runs or fewer and 6+ innings in three of those starts—which limits exposure to Washington’s shaky pen. Holmes owns a 4.58 ERA and has been tagged for 12 earned across his last 17 innings. Scott also noted the Braves have hit under .220 at Truist Park and are scoring fewer than three runs per game over their last ten. With Irvin’s ground-ball profile playing well against Atlanta’s swing-and-lift approach, Reichel thinks the Nats are undervalued and worth a full-game sprinkle.

Eric Lindquist pegged Matt Olson as Monday’s top home-run bet if books hang +280 or longer. Jake Irvin carries a 5.50 xERA, a 5.34 expected slugging allowed, and a launch-angle sweet-spot rate that ballooned from 33% to 36.5% year-over-year—perfect fodder for Olson’s elite elevation skill. Although Olson’s season-long average launch angle has dipped to 11.5°, Lindquist believes recent batted-ball data show it rebounding toward his career norm (16°+). He projects a break-even HR price of +255 and insists on a small cushion for projection error, hence the +280 threshold.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Atlanta on the money-line again, this time leaning on Grant Holmes’ reliable home numbers and Washington’s lack of true knockout bats. Holmes has yielded only a 3.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 21 innings at Truist Park, while Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin has been solid but not dominant despite a 3.72 ERA and stingy .194 opponent average in three road starts. The tout noted that Atlanta has still won three of its last five despite ranking just 22nd in OPS with runners in scoring position (.689), and trusts the Braves’ 12th-rated bullpen (3.62 ERA) to protect a late lead against Washington’s relief corps that ranks 30th with a 7.13 ERA. Factor in the Braves’ home-field comfort and superior overall pitching depth, and Cash Out Sports Picks expects Atlanta to grind out another victory even in a low-scoring environment.