Mills Young advised betting Tarik Skubal over 6 strikeouts. The Tigers’ left-hander has cleared this mark in four of his last five starts (80%) while carrying a 31% whiff rate and 14.7% swinging-strike percentage. He faces a bottom-10 offense versus southpaws, and Sports Chat Place’s model grades the over as an A play, so Young is riding the trend.

Guy Boston recommended taking Abraham Toro under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +140 against Tarik Skubal. Boston joked that bettors are ‘owed’ after Toro ruined a previous under with a garbage-time homer, but the handicap is more than narrative: Toro is a part-time switch-hitter who owns a sub-.280 wOBA from the right side and strikes out 28 % of the time versus high-velocity lefties. Skubal’s fastball/change combo is carving up right-handed bats (35 % K, .189 xBA) and Detroit’s pen has three lefty relievers waiting if Toro sees a second plate appearance late. With Toro projected to hit eighth and rarely steal, Boston sees limited pathways for multiple counting stats and is comfortable firing a half-unit at plus money.

Adam Rosenberg played Tarik Skubal over 8 strikeouts at –104, calling it a ‘smash K spot’. Boston’s projected lineup features six hitters with 23%-plus K-rates and 27%-plus CSW versus lefties over the last 30 plate appearances. Skubal is on a dominant run: 31 strikeouts and 0 walks across his last 19 innings, including 12 Ks against Texas and 8 Ks versus Boston last August. Even in an earlier 73-pitch start against the Angels he still punched out eight. With no current pitch-limit concerns, Rosenberg believes Skubal is the AL’s best pitcher and considered laddering the strikeouts for double-digit upside.

Tokyo Brandon advised taking the Red Sox team total UNDER 1.5 runs for the first five innings. He graded Detroit ace Tarik Skubal as a top-3 overall starter, noting an elite 5% walk-to-strikeout rate and just two total earned runs allowed across his last six starts. Five of those outings came against lineups he considers superior to Boston’s. On Brandon’s proprietary 30-point scale, Skubal is a perfect 30 while Boston’s offense is a middling 15. He stressed that Hunter Dobbins is solid but far less seasoned and unlikely to match Skubal inning for inning. With Detroit wielding a hot, top-4 lineup and Boston’s bats scuffling, Brandon expects Skubal to hold the Sox to a single run or less through five, making the F5 team-total under his preferred wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the money line with Detroit because Tarik Skubal is "arguably the hottest pitcher in the game"—31 K, 0 BB over his last three starts and a 2.08 season ERA. Rookie Jacob Dobbins travels for only his second road start and now faces a Tigers lineup that is 27-15 and surging at home. The tout doubts the youngster can "out-duel the defending Cy Young winner" and sees Detroit’s bats putting pressure on him early.

Malcolm Bamford played the first-five under, trusting both starters to keep things quiet early despite Detroit’s recent scoring binge. Boston rookie Hunter Dobbins owns a 1.19 WHIP, and three of his four MLB outings have been quality, while Tarik Skubal is coming off 12 strikeouts in Texas and continues to look like a Cy Young candidate. Bamford pointed out that individual starting-pitcher totals for both arms trend under even as full-game totals have drifted over thanks to bullpens. He expects Dobbins’ ground-ball profile and Skubal’s swing-and-miss stuff to suppress scoring through five before offenses and pens potentially flip the script late.

Rockford bet Over 7/7.5 in Boston–Detroit, projecting 7.8 runs. Detroit games are 7-2-1 to the over in the last ten and the Tigers are slashing five runs per game at Comerica, fresh off a 14-spot against Boston. As dominant as Tarik Skubal has been, his starts still find offense because the Tigers themselves score. Rafael Devers and company should contribute as well—Boston is batting .269 versus lefties and averaging 4.35 runs on the road. With two capable line-ups and a short total, Rockford thinks bookmakers are shading Skubal too heavily and expects both clubs to clear the number.

Kenny G called Detroit ‑220 his potential "lock of the day" and even endorsed the run line with ace Tarik Skubal on the bump. Skubal sports a 2.08 ERA and has surrendered just four earned runs over his last five starts, piling up 12 strikeouts against Texas in his most recent outing. Detroit’s bullpen is nearly the best in baseball and its offense has exploded for double-digit runs in both games of this series, now ranking 3rd in runs and 6th in OBP. Boston counters with rookie Hunter Dobbins, who is fresh off his best start but owns a middling 2.78 ERA against a far softer schedule. The Red Sox lineup has been wildly inconsistent – 9, 2, 3, 10 and 1 runs in their last five – and their bullpen ERA has been trending upward. The Tigers are 15-5 at Comerica Park, while Boston is 11-12 on the road. Kenny trusts Detroit’s across-the-board advantages to cash the moneyline and likely cover the ‑1.5 as well.

Donaldson is taking Boston on the moneyline for two units despite facing reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. He believes rookie Hunter Dobbins can finally give the Sox the quality start they’ve lacked all series, while the offense has shown enough flashes to scratch out a few against Skubal—who can still post a decent six-inning, three-run line and lose. The mismatch in public perception versus actual win probability makes Boston a strong value play in his eyes.

Brian Howard called Tarik Skubal 'the best pitcher in baseball right now' and plans to hit both his strikeout over and the Tigers double-result (lead after 5 and win) against Boston. Skubal boasts a 1.68 ERA, 34 % K-rate and has allowed only two homers in seven starts. Boston’s lineup owns the sixth-highest strikeout rate versus lefties (26.4 %) and ranks 23rd in wRC+ in that split. Howard expects books to hang an 8.0 or 8.5 strikeout line at approximately ‑110; if that happens he will ladder to 9+ for plus money because Skubal has reached double-digit Ks in two of his last four outings while averaging 94 pitches. He paired the K prop with Detroit’s double result, noting the Tigers bullpen’s 2.91 ERA over the past two weeks and Boston’s bottom-10 pen in leverage index.

Kyle Purviance circled Hunter Dobbins’ strikeout prop, recommending 6+ Ks at +195 and 7+ at 4-to-1 against a Tigers lineup that strikes out 27 % of the time versus right-handers (24th in contact rate). Dobbins has cleared 5 strikeouts in three of four starts, including six against Kansas City—MLB’s second-toughest team to K. Purviance acknowledged pitch-count volatility (range 79-93 pitches) but trusts Dobbins’ 32 % whiff rate on his sweeper to exploit Detroit’s bottom-five chase discipline. He dismissed the low 7.0 game total, arguing that even a pitcher’s duel can feature punch-outs, and advised bettors to ladder rather than play the flat 5.5 at juiced odds.

Matt Perrault said the Tigers money-line is a standalone bet worth riding because Tarik Skubal is set up to dominate a reeling Boston club. Skubal owns a 1.72 ERA through his last four turns and now sees a Red Sox bullpen that coughed up two separate three-run homers to Javier Baez last night, including an 11th-inning walk-off. Perrault noted Boston is trying to avoid a sweep but calls their relief corps "atrocious" and doubts they can support a lineup that already strikes out 24% of the time versus left-handed pitching. He added that Detroit currently sports the best record in the American League, so backing Skubal against a taxed pen in getaway-day conditions is his favorite way to capitalize.

Chris Welsh warned managers that Trevor Story’s bat is unplayable right now and suggested Boston may soon relieve him of shortstop duties. After a 0-for-3 with two additional strikeouts dropped Story to .145 (9-for-62) over his last 15 games, Welsh highlighted the ugly peripherals: just one homer and 21 strikeouts in that span. He floated a position switch—“Story to first base and take one for the team”—as the quickest way for the Red Sox to get top prospect Marcelo Mayer or even Roman Anthony into the lineup. While Welsh does not expect Boston to outright bench or DFA Story, he believes the front office “has to take a long look at this roster” and managers in season-long formats should park Story on the bench or look to move on before the club forces the issue.

Lindquist suggested attacking Riley Greene’s over 1.5 total bases prop at plus money against Brayan Bello. Bello’s profile is ugly: 13.8% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate, and a .374 expected wOBA, all while surrendering loud contact despite his ground-ball lean. Greene, protected by Kerry Carpenter up top and Spencer Torkelson in the middle, should see pitches to hit. Because Bello tends to keep the ball in the yard, Lindquist prefers the total-bases market to a home-run ticket, expecting Greene to pick up a couple of extra-base knocks or a single and double.

The tout highlighted Riley Greene as a worthwhile flier versus Brayan Bello, citing Greene’s 3-for-6 (.500) history and a current stretch with hits in 12 of his last 16. That combination of BvP and momentum makes Greene a solid over on 1+ hit or total-base props.

The same game under was the second play. Boston’s bullpen ranks 11th with a 3.59 ERA and has been even better in May (2.46). Detroit’s relief corps is second in MLB at 2.72, and both staffs have continued to dominate this month (Detroit 3.60 ERA). Six of the last 10 meetings have cashed under, and the tout expects another low-scoring affair, especially with both managers likely to lean on their elite pens after a Holton opener.

Just A Bet Outside pounded the table for the full-game over 8 runs in Red Sox-Tigers, calling the number a run too low. He broke down the pitching matchup: Bryan Bello owns a 2.01 ERA only because an absurd 97.1 % of base-runners have been stranded; his expected ERA sits north of 5.5 and he has nearly as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13) in 22.1 innings. Detroit counters with an opener (Tyler Holton) followed by Kenta Montero, and the host reminded listeners that Montero carries a 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a meager 15 K’s in 21.2 innings while surrendering a .324 average and .676 slugging to left-handed bats. Both lineups have been scorching the past three weeks—Boston is 7th and Detroit 8th in wRC+ versus right-handers—and Boston has been one of MLB’s best road offenses all year. With two bullpens already worked recently and both teams featuring multiple left-handed difference-makers (Devers, Duran, Carpenter, Greene, Sweeney), he projected either club capable of pushing toward the eight-run mark on its own, making the over playable to 8.5.

Cash Out Sports Picks played Boston on the money line. Detroit is rolling out a bullpen game with Tyler Holton, who owns a 4.82 ERA and .278 opponent average at Comerica. Brayan Bello has allowed just one run on eight hits across his last 11.1 innings and Boston is 4-0 when he starts. The Sox also have a clear base-running edge (45 steals vs Detroit’s 17) and have grounded into only 19 double plays (league low), while the Tigers have hit into 27. Given the more stable starter and Detroit’s bullpen exposure, the tout sees solid value backing Boston.

Just A Bet Outside shined a light on Trey Sweeney as a quietly profitable hit-prop play. The rookie has logged at least one knock in nine of his past eleven contests and multi-hit outings in five of the last seven, batting .360 over the last 15 days. Books still hang his 1-hit line around –150 despite the heater. Sweeney is a lefty, and Bryan Bello’s career platoon splits are stark: .262 average and .439 slugging allowed to left-handers last year, with similar results in a limited 2024 sample. Given Bello’s deteriorating peripherals and Sweeney’s current form—over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in five of six—the host views the single-hit prop as playable straight or as a parlay piece and likes the over 1.5 bases at plus money.

Grant Neiffer said Rafael Devers is his favorite leg in Monday’s three-man dinger parlay at an effective +445 after FanDuel’s 30 % profit boost. Neiffer noted Devers’ barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and fly-ball rate are all sitting at career highs despite a sluggish start that produced fewer homers than expected. He pointed out several warning-track outs in the past month as evidence the underlying power is intact and simply needs a little positive variance. The matchup versus rookie right-hander "Job/Jobe" projects slightly above average for long balls and the wind at Fenway will only be a mild deterrent with temperatures in the high 70s. Neiffer concluded the metrics plus the number make Devers a strong bet to go deep.

Joe Pisapia grabbed Boston at –108 on the road, arguing the market is underrating how lopsided the pitching matchup is. Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe owns an ERA north of 5.00 and a .287 opponent average, whereas Tanner Houck has delivered quality starts in five of his last six with a 57% ground-ball rate. Pisapia also pointed out Rafael Devers’ recent heater (three homers, .390 OBP over his past seven games) and Boston’s top-10 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. He expects the Red Sox to chase Jobe early and let their rested bullpen protect a lead.

Pisapia also bet Rafael Devers to record a run at +145. He cited Devers’ 46% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and Detroit’s bullpen ranking 26th in xFIP. With Jobe struggling to miss bats (16% whiff rate) and Houck likely keeping Boston in front, Pisapia expects Devers to bat at least five times and believes a single extra-base hit or walk will put him in scoring position against a relief corps allowing 1.32 HR/9.

Guy Boston recommended betting Abraham Toro Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at roughly –112. Toro is only in the lineup because Romy Gonzalez is injured and has logged minimal plate appearances this season. Boston called Toro "not good," noting an 85 wRC+ over his last 300 MLB PA and no stolen-base threat. Rookie Jackson Jobe leans on a plus fastball/slider combo that should neutralize Toro’s middling contact skills, and even in what Boston expects could turn into an over game, he doubts Toro will generate enough counting stats to clear the prop.

Bryan Power advised laying the short price with the Detroit Tigers at home against Boston. He highlighted a pronounced pitching edge: rookie Jackson Jobe owns a 2.70 ERA at Comerica (10 IP, 0 HR) whereas his 6.11 ERA on the road shows the park suits him. Boston counters with Tanner Houck, who sits bottom-six among 81 qualified starters in FIP and has surrendered at least three earned in six of eight outings. Power added that Detroit is 15-5 at home and ranks top-10 in runs scored, while the Red Sox are just 5-? on the road and have a middling bullpen behind Houck. With Jobe’s ground-ball profile neutralizing Fenway-built Boston bats and the Tigers’ lineup comfortable in spacious Comerica, Power views Detroit up to –120 as solid value.

Bettor Mark said the Tigers are a must-play at –108 after reopening down from –115. He noted public handle leans toward Boston, yet he prefers Detroit in a classic bounce-back spot following an ugly loss. Mark trusts rookie Joe Boyle’s 2-0 record and underlying stuff at Comerica Park even though Boyle has been ‘saved by the bats’ so far. Conversely, he expects some regression for Tanner Houck, pointing to the Red Sox right-hander’s recent escape acts and a Detroit lineup that has shown improved pop at home. With books effectively treating Boston as the true favorite despite the cheaper Detroit price, Mark believes the number is simply wrong and the Tigers should be favored, making their moneyline his top play.

Kenny G advised playing Over 8.5 runs in Red Sox-Tigers instead of picking a side. He pointed to both starters struggling: Tanner Houck owns a 6.10 ERA and just allowed six hits and three runs to Texas, while 22-year-old Jackson Jobe carries a 4.88 ERA and surrendered six earned at Coors Field his last time out. Detroit’s bullpen has been lights-out, but Kenny doubts Jobe works deep enough to protect the pen. On the offensive side, Boston ranks sixth in MLB in runs and seventh in slugging, whereas Detroit is fourth in runs for the season despite a mini-slump; both clubs have produced double-digit totals recently. Given the combination of volatile starters and two lineups capable of crooked numbers, Kenny expects runs early and often and feels the Over holds the only real betting value on this matchup.

Scott Reichel bet Over 8.0 in Red Sox–Tigers. Tanner Houck owns a 6.01 ERA and historically shaky road splits, while young right-hander Jackson Jobe has begun to regress after a hot start, giving up nine runs across his last 7⅔ innings. Detroit’s lineup has been sneaky hot and Boston’s should wake up against a pitcher who relies heavily on a slider the Sox rank top-10 against. Scott thinks each club can reach four runs, calling the total cheap given Comerica’s warmer May weather.

The tout recommended betting the full-game over because both starters own ERAs north of 4.50 and recent totals trends scream offense. Boston has hit the over in four of Houck’s past five outings, while Detroit has cashed the over in three of Jobe’s last five starts and 4-of-5 overall. Detroit just watched Texas unload for 10 runs on Saturday, and Boston’s own bats are heating up. With Jobe’s walk/homer issues and a Red Sox bullpen that has already blown two Houck leads, Cash Out Sports Picks forecast a high-scoring opener.

Lonte Smith locked in Detroit −110, noting the Tigers have scored seven-plus runs in seven of their last ten and are 6-0 in Jackson Jobe’s starts. Jobe has allowed two or fewer in every home outing, while Tanner Houck has been tagged for 4+ earned in four of six road starts. Lonte also likes that Detroit’s early-season gauntlet is over and they’re taking advantage of softer competition, winning eight of ten overall. He’ll pair the side with the over but the main play is Tigers moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Boston on the money-line because they trust Tanner Houck far more than Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe. Houck has thrown at least 6.0 innings in each of his last three starts while allowing just seven total runs, and he owns strong historical numbers against Detroit. Jobe, meanwhile, has walked 15 batters in only 27 innings, carries a modest 20-strikeout total, and has already surrendered five homers – two of them in a sub-4-inning disaster his last time out. Boston’s lineup is trending up and has won 6 of its last 8 trips to Comerica Park. Add in the Tigers’ shaky bullpen that has twice blown Houck leads this year, and the tout believes Boston holds the edge on both the mound and in the batter’s box.

Drew Martin played Detroit at a pick-em price (-105), noting the Tigers own MLB’s best record (26-15) and a +72 run differential while winning 14 of 19 at Comerica. Rookie Jackson Jobe, the former No. 3 overall pick, sits 97-98 mph and gets a pass for his poor Colorado start due to altitude. Martin expects a rebound versus a Red Sox offense ranked bottom-10 in wRC+ and team OPS over the last week. Tanner Houck brings a 6-plus ERA, is 0-2, and has been lit up on the road (23 ER, 24 IP, 34 hits). Detroit’s bats are scorching against righties and the bullpen ranks third on his board, so he’s riding the hotter lineup and superior relief corps.