Guy Boston mentioned potentially playing a Cubs team total over, specifically targeting San Diego starter Randy Vasquez, whom he explicitly expressed reservations about backing. He highlighted the Cubs' lineup getting a boost with Seiya Suzuki back in at DH, joining Ian Happ and Cole Tucker at the top of the order. Given Vasquez's questionable performance history, Guy Boston stresses the appeal of isolating the Cubs offense directly against the Padres starter rather than opting for full-game bets dependent on bullpen performance.

Guy Boston recommends betting the Cubs first-five moneyline primarily due to Shota Imanaga's excellent historical track record against the Padres lineup, posting 25% strikeout and just a .143 batting average allowed in 44 plate appearances. He emphasizes Imanaga's left-handedness posing additional challenges for the Padres, who notably drop from a top batting lineup against righties to around seventh or eighth facing lefties. Despite one recent subpar start, Imanaga previously dominated San Diego, pitching 7.1 innings allowing just one earned run. Given concerns about Chicago's bullpen, Guy strongly prefers isolating the starting pitching advantage by taking the Cubs on a first-five moneyline around -140.

Adam Burke targets Padres team total Over 1.5 runs in the first five innings (-130), primarily due to worries around Shota Imanaga's declining velocity and recent vulnerability. Burke pointed out that Imanaga lost approximately 2 mph on his fastball in recent colder starts, significantly affecting his effectiveness and resulting in allowing seven barrels in just two outings, including last time against Texas (five earned runs). Burke is particularly concerned about Imanaga's potential health issues, noting his increased workload last season. Facing San Diego, a top-10 offense versus left-handed pitching with elite contact skills (second-lowest strikeout rate), Burke expects the Padres lineup to put early runs on the board.

B Wade recommends betting Randy Vasquez under 2.5 earned runs, focusing heavily on favorable home splits. Vasquez has pitched significantly better at home, highlighted by finishing last season with five consecutive home starts staying under the earned-run threshold. Additionally, this season, Vasquez has thrown a shutout in his only home game versus Atlanta, reinforcing strong home trend reliability. Given Vasquez's consistent home performances (only surpassing this prop in two of his last nine home outings), B Wade labels this an appealing bet today.

Despite being listed as slight underdogs (+120), Data Skrive's model recommends betting on the Padres, forecasting a 4-3 victory against the Cubs. Padres starter Randy Vasquez has been dominant to start the season with a 1.72 ERA through three games, ensuring a great matchup against Cubs starter Shota Imanaga (2-1, 2.70 ERA). Considering both teams’ strong early records (Padres at 14-3, Cubs at 11-8), taking the plus odds on a well-performing Padres team at home represents a sharp betting angle.

Andrew Brennan believes Shota Imanaga is an ideal buy-low candidate tonight against the Padres. Despite decreased strikeouts early in the season compared to his impressive rookie year, Imanaga maintains stable underlying metrics, notably his swinging-strike rate. Brennan’s projection model anticipates 5.01 strikeouts, making the current line (Over 4.5 at +116 odds) good value with a realistic implied probability of around 56%, compared to the listed 46.3%.

Tokyo Brandon sees value backing the Chicago Cubs today vs the San Diego Padres, highlighting a distinct advantage in starting pitching. He ranked Cubs' starter Shota Imanaga significantly higher (12th out of 30) compared to Randy Vasquez of San Diego (ranked 21st), labeling Vasquez a bottom-10 MLB starter. Brandon also rates Chicago as the second-best hitting team and acknowledges that despite San Diego's unbeaten home streak, regression is likely. The Cubs, coming off adequate rest unlike the previous night, are positioned as a strong underdog play versus Vasquez, who's recently struggled, including lasting only 4.2 innings in his earlier matchup against Chicago this season. Brandon advises placing a small 1% wager on the Cubs' moneyline in this scenario.

Tokyo Brandon recommends betting the under on Randy Vasquez's total recorded outs prop of 15.5 against the Cubs. Despite Vasquez pitching six innings in an earlier start against Atlanta, he's struggled in recent outings. Notably, Vasquez lasted only 4.2 innings in a previous start facing these same Cubs while laboring through 82 pitches. Brandon expects a similarly tough outing today, emphasizing Vasquez's poor recent form and diminished effectiveness. With San Diego leveraging their strong bullpen and Cubs coming in fully rested with elite offensive ranking (2nd overall by Brandon's metrics), it's unlikely Vasquez will pitch into the sixth inning. Brandon strongly suggests the under as a betting opportunity.

Kenny G strongly favors the Padres at plus money (+116) against Cubs, highlighting multiple significant advantages. He points specifically to Padres' red-hot offensive production (10th in runs scored, 1st in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage), driven by Fernando Tatis Jr.'s excellent start and other hitters' recent hot streaks. The Padres bullpen is stellar, sporting a remarkable 1.51 ERA. While acknowledging Cubs' solid starter Shota Imanaga (2.70 ERA but 5 ER last outing), Kenny predicts regression looming for the Cubs offense, currently leading MLB in runs scored yet unsustainably hot. Given Padres' perfect home record (11-0) and superior offensive consistency, Kenny confidently backs them as an underdog in this matchup.

Drew Martin sees clear value backing the Padres as home underdogs against the Cubs, highlighting San Diego's dominant home record (10-0 coming into the series) and MLB-leading 13-3 overall record. He points directly to San Diego's significant bullpen superiority, describing theirs as one of baseball's best, against a Cubs bullpen that has struggled in late innings. Drew acknowledges starter Randy Vasquez's occasional control issues but feels that's offset by Vasquez's sub-2 ERA and the impressive bullpen support. At +118, he believes the Padres offer exceptional value in this spot.

Dana Lane highlighted Randy Vasquez's impressive start to the season with a very strong 1.72 ERA. Facing off against Cubs' pitcher Imanaga (2.70 ERA), Lane emphasized Vasquez’s significant early-season performance as a key reason to back the Padres. Lane believes the Padres pitching matchup gives them value here despite being slight underdogs at around +$1.12 versus Chicago, who is favored at -$1.32.

Cash Out Sports Picks sees strong value betting the Padres money line as home underdogs against the Cubs. Although Cubs' young pitcher Shoda Imanaga recently succeeded against San Diego, Padres pitcher Vasquez also limited damage effectively despite walks. Padres enter this contest red-hot, having won five straight and maintaining a stellar record of 14-3, which presents attractive odds for significant returns. Given this consistent winning streak and robust overall performance, taking the Padres at favorable odds holds strong appeal per Cash Out Sports Picks.

Bryan Zarpentine emphasizes Ian Happ’s severe struggles against Padres pitcher Dylan Cease, hitting just .056 (1 for 18) career with nine strikeouts. Although Cease enters Monday after a rough outing inflated his ERA to 7.98, his past dominance over Happ’s bat significantly outweighs Happ's recent modest success. While Happ did have a strong 3-for-5 performance on Sunday, his season average remains low (.222) and he endured a 1-for-12 stretch just before this rise. Thus, betting on Happ to go hitless again at plus-odds is compelling value.

Bryan Zarpentine identifies Kyle Tucker as a prime hitter prop option, given his strong historical results against Padres pitcher Dylan Cease, with a .455 average (5 for 11), including two doubles. Tucker has begun the season hot, batting .328 with an OPS of 1.108. His recent offensive surge further bolsters the prop, as he collected multiple hits in four of his last six games, showing a reliable knack for extra-base hits. These indicators make Tucker an attractive prop option (+150 odds) to accumulate two or more total bases today.

Kenny G anticipates Dylan Cease's significant bounce-back performance against the Cubs after a dismal recent outing versus the Athletics (9 ER in 4 IP). Citing Cease's overall pedigree and the Padres' elite bullpen (MLB best 1.51 ERA), Kenny confidently favors the Padres at -167. While acknowledging Cubs starter Jameson Taillon improving slightly since his rough opener, Kenny remains lukewarm, partly due to Taillon surrendering a home run in each start this year (6.06 ERA overall). Facing the potent Cubs lineup (top-ranked in runs scored), Kenny agrees the challenge is significant but still sees San Diego as the pick, trusting Cease in this spot despite recent struggles.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended placing a money line bet on the Chicago Cubs against the Padres, citing San Diego pitcher Dylan Cease's shaky form. Cease has surrendered 13 hits and 10 runs over his last 10.1 innings, struggling to regain control. Chicago's offense has been steady, scoring four or more runs in 11 of their last 14 games. Moreover, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has rebounded impressively after a rough initial outing, allowing just nine hits and five runs while striking out 13 over his past two starts. Given the favorable pitching condition and solid Cubs offense, Cash Out Sports Picks finds substantial value in betting Chicago at plus odds.

Just A Bet Outside described Jameson Taillon's recent pitching performances as downright terrible. Over 16.1 innings pitched, he surrendered 18 hits and 11 earned runs, highlighting major red flags for fantasy and betting outlooks. With ongoing struggles pinpointed clearly, fading Taillon represents a solid angle today.

Drew Martin is confidently betting the Padres to extend their hot streak at home against the Cubs. San Diego is MLB-best at 13-3, coming off four straight wins and notably undefeated at home (10-0). Their pitching has allowed only one run in their last four games, highlighted by a complete game shutout yesterday, ensuring a fresh bullpen for today. Drew expects pitcher Dylan Cease to bounce back strongly from a career-worst start, relying on the fact that Cease's velocity remains unaffected. Additionally, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has been hittable (18 hits, 11 earned runs allowed in 16 innings), and Drew believes the Padres lineup and bullpen edge will be decisive. He advised laying juice, taking Padres at -152.

It's The Final Round loves the matchup for Fernando Tatis Jr. against Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon, who heavily relies on a four-seam fastball (42%), sweeper (33%), and cutter. Tatis has been crushing fastballs this year (.471 batting average, 2 HRs in 17 AB), and even in limited action (.500 vs sweeper, .308 vs cutter last season), his numbers against Taillon's pitches are extremely encouraging. Additionally, Taillon has struggled against batters this year, giving up a .500 batting average on his sweeper (6 hits in 12 AB) and a .400 clip against his cutter. Tatis enters the matchup on a strong hitting streak, hitting safely in 11 of the last 14 games and historically is batting .333 against Taillon (1-for-3 career).

Kyle Tucker has emerged as a standout home run prop target (+430) due to his terrific April power numbers. He has tallied 5 home runs in 18 games, homering in 27.8% of contests played. Data Skrive recommends taking advantage of Tucker's potent form heading into Monday's game against the Padres.

Data Skrive points out Carson Kelly as a prime candidate for an opportunistic HR prop bet at massive +10000 odds. Kelly has unexpectedly bashed 4 home runs in only 9 games (homering 33.3% of the time) in early-season play, suggesting excellent high-risk, high-reward value in Monday's matchup.

The Padres (-164 favorites) are expected by Data Skrive's computer model to defeat the Cubs (+138). Padres carry one of MLB's best records (13-3) into the matchup, trending favorably at home behind consistent offense and elite pitching. Dylan Cease, expected to start for San Diego, further strengthens premium valuation, creating actionable betting insight on Padres moneyline and potential total over (7.5 runs).