JD Bets targeted Spencer Schwellenbach’s 1.5 earned-runs prop, playing the over at plus money. The rookie has been rocked in every outing—allowing 6, 2, 3, and 6 earned runs—and is giving up 7.6 hits per start. JD highlighted that every team Schwellenbach has faced, from middling Toronto to red-hot Los Angeles, has cashed this ticket, producing a 100% over rate in his last five appearances. While Cincinnati has been ice-cold (3.1 runs per game over the past ten), JD called the Reds a classic ‘slump-buster’ for struggling pitchers and expects them to scratch out at least two runs during Schwellenbach’s projected 5+ innings. He prefers attacking the pitcher prop rather than relying on Cincinnati’s volatile bullpen or lineup for a full-game side.

OddsTrader’s AI Model projected Blake Dunn for just 0.368 hits while Caesars is hanging a 0.5-hit line at ‑109. The model’s fade is backed by Dunn’s ugly profile against right-handed pitching: a .000 ISO and .221 wOBA over his last 28 righty matchups, 28.6% strikeout rate, and a ground-ball rate north of 53% in the past 30 days. His fly-ball and hard-contact rates both sit at a meager 13.3%, driving a .200 BABIP. He now faces Spencer Schwellenbach, who is suffocating righties with a .088 ISO, .240 wOBA, 57% ground-ball rate, sub-10% fly-ball rate, 25% K% and only 4.1% walks. The matchup and Dunn’s contact profile make the Under on 0.5 hits a value play.

numberFire pegs Atlanta with a 56.7% chance, per Data Skrive, as rookie Spencer Schwellenbach debuts opposite Nick Lodolo. Schwellenbach lit up Double-A with a 32% strikeout rate and sub-2.00 ERA, and he receives the backing of an offense averaging 5.1 runs at Truist Park. Lodolo’s 1.9 HR/9 on the road is a red flag against Atlanta’s power. Though ‑178 implies 64.0%, the model still gives the Braves the better side in moneyline parlays and suggests looking at ATL team total over 4.5 runs.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Atlanta, noting the Braves have won four of their last five series and dropped only six games at Truist Park. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach owns a 3.28 ERA at home with the team 3-1 in his starts, while Cincinnati southpaw Nick Lodolo just gave up six runs to Washington and has surrendered 3+ in three of four outings. The Reds have lost three of four series and are 1-4 in their last five games. Atlanta has controlled the season series, allowing just five Reds runs in three meetings.

Lindquist leaned toward the first-five under 4.5 runs in Reds-Braves but has not committed because the market opened –135/–140. He likes the pitching matchup—Nick Lodolo’s curveball has generated a 32% whiff rate, and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (1.11 WHIP, 3.92 ERA) has underperformed his 3.44 xERA from last season’s limited sample yet still limits hard contact. Cincinnati owns just a 94 WRC+ versus right-handed pitching, while Atlanta’s massive bats are neutralized somewhat by Lodolo being a lefty in cavernous Truist Park. If juice drops closer to –120, Lindquist said he’ll fire on the F5 under, expecting 3–4 total runs through five.

Kenny G also recommended the under 7.5 in the same Reds-Braves matchup. Both clubs trend that way: Cincinnati is 11-8 to the under on the road while Atlanta is 10-6-1 to the under at Truist Park. Lodolo’s swing-and-miss stuff (28% K-rate) plus Schwellenbach’s ground-ball profile can keep the ball in the yard, and neither offense is firing – the Reds have scored 1 run or fewer in three of their last five, and Atlanta ranks a middling 17th in average. With two non-elite but competent pens (3.60 and 3.70 ERA) backing them up, Kenny projected something like 4-3 or 3-2 and called the 7.5 a shade high.

Kenny G sees juicy plus-money with Cincinnati at +150. He expects a bounce-back from Nick Lodolo (3-3, 3.27 ERA) after getting left out to dry for 10 hits and 7 runs versus Washington; before that the lefty logged a quality start at Coors. Atlanta counters with rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who owns a 1-3 record and 3.92 ERA but has been tagged in three straight (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cardinals) and is still learning to navigate big-league line-ups. Cincinnati’s bullpen is quietly better (3.60 ERA) than the Braves’ unit (3.70), and the Reds have been competitive on the road (10-9). Offensively, Atlanta is only 17th in average and 12th in slugging, so Kenny argues the talent gap is far smaller than a −175/ +150 split suggests. He has not committed to making it his Dog of the Day, but firmly believes the line should be closer to +130 and is worth a sprinkle.

Dylan Rockford sees big-board value with Cincinnati around +145 and leans over 7.5/8. His model makes Atlanta only –145, so any plus-money north of +145 on the underdog is an auto-bet. He emphasized Lodolo’s 1.07 road ERA (batters .176) versus Schwellenbach’s shaky recent form—2+ runs allowed in four straight and a 1-3 team record in those outings. Rockford also projects 8.4 runs, citing Atlanta’s overworked bullpen and Cincinnati’s own bullpen volatility as paths to late scoring. He plans to wait for potential Braves money to inflate the price but will fire at Reds +145 or better and the over.

Scott Reichel grabbed Reds first-five moneyline with Nick Lodolo facing Spencer Schwellenbach. Lodolo boasts a microscopic 1.07 ERA on the road (25.1 IP, 3 ER) and even threw seven scoreless at Coors two starts ago. Schwellenbach has coughed up three-plus earned runs in three of his last four and sports a 3.92 ERA that is buoyed by soft opponents. Cincinnati’s shaky bullpen scares Reichel off the full-game side, but he trusts Lodolo to win the initial five frames against an Atlanta lineup batting just .205 versus lefties in 2025.

Boston backed the Reds at pick-em prices, pairing the side with a first-five UNDER in Atlanta. He called Hunter Greene "clearly the better arm" after the right-hander bounced back with 12 strikeouts and one earned over six frames versus Washington. Greene’s 98-mph heater and 38% slider usage match well against a Braves lineup that has posted three straight unders and rates only league-average against elite velocity. On the other side, Grant Holmes throws 60% four-seamers—perfect for a Cincinnati offense that owns MLB’s best run value against fastballs over the past month. Even so, Boston likes the F5 UNDER because rain, 10-mph winds, and a game total already bet down to 7.5 signal a suppressed scoring environment. The Reds’ last three and Braves’ last two contests have all stayed under early, so he projects a 2-1 or 3-2 score through five and a full-game Reds win.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Reds on the money-line thanks to a clear pitching and bullpen advantage. He pointed out that Hunter Greene has surrendered only nine runs across his last five starts and has limited Atlanta to three total runs in two 2024 meetings, holding Braves hitters to a .224 average over 49 at-bats. By contrast, Grant Holmes has coughed up eight runs in his last two outings and allows Reds bats to slash .330 in a tiny 21-AB sample. Cincinnati owns the 11th-ranked bullpen and has won four of its last five road games, while the Braves pen has leaked runs all year. With Cincinnati’s lineup batting .251 versus righties and historically faring well against Holmes, the tout sees enough firepower to cash the plus money.

Razzle is once again on Hunter Greene, who owns a 7.5 strikeout prop (best on the slate) even with juice to the under. The total is only 7.5, and Greene has already logged three games of 20+ DK points and two over 34 points this season. Home-run issues linger, but Atlanta’s projected lineup carries a middling 22% K rate and Greene’s high-powered four-seam/slider combo just carved up the Dodgers. A win bonus isn’t required for him to smash, making him an ideal GPP anchor.

Adam Rosenberg played Grant Holmes under 4.5 hits allowed at even money on Caesars. He joked about Holmes’s ‘insurrectionist’ beard but likes the actual underlying metrics: strong SIERRA, elite ground-ball rate and above-average strikeout percentage. Cincinnati’s last 30 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching produce an anemic wOBA, with six hitters batting .231 or worse. Because Chris Sale worked 6.2 innings Tuesday, Atlanta’s bullpen is rested, so manager Brian Snitker can hook Holmes early—important since Holmes has topped 17.5 outs only once in his last five home starts. Rosenberg noted Holmes has given up 5+ hits just twice in his last 10 outings (once this year at Arizona, once last August) and has not surrendered more than four hits at Truist Park since August against Miami. With even-money juice and a pitcher profile built to limit contact, Rosenberg labeled it his second Wednesday prop.

Lindquist grabbed the first-five under 4.5 (-140) in Hunter Greene vs Grant Holmes. Greene’s triple-digit fastball has returned 34 % CSW over his last four outings, and he looked untouchable before the rain-out rerouted his last start. Holmes dazzled with nine strikeouts against the Dodgers and carries a sweeping slider that neutralizes Cincinnati’s lefty core. With Reds bats ice-cold versus righties and Braves missing key pieces, Lindquist makes the fair price 4.0 at ‑110, so he’s even willing to chase plus money on an alt 3.5.

Dimon recommended Under 8 runs at -120 for Reds-Braves, citing a convergence of shaky lineups and hot starting pitching. Cincinnati has scored exactly two runs across its last three games and was just blanked and then held to a single run in Tuesday’s 10-inning loss. Atlanta is averaging only 2.5 runs over its past six contests. Grant Holmes has given the Braves length recently, going six strong versus the Dodgers with nine strikeouts and holding opponents to two runs or fewer in three of his last four outings (team 3-1 in that span). Hunter Greene brings ace-level form for the Reds: 4-2, 2.53 ERA, microscopic 0.82 WHIP, and a 55-to-8 K:BB ratio in 42.2 innings. With both offenses slumping and two in-form arms on the hill, Dimon expects a pitchers’ duel that stays comfortably under the posted total.

Stephen cautioned bettors about backing Hunter Greene’s strikeout over against Atlanta. While Greene carries one of the slate’s top raw K-rates, the Braves have posted the ninth-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks. That clash of styles led him to conclude that Greene’s total is more likely to fall short than exceed the posted number and labeled this a potential under-K spot.

Joe Pisapia advised holding Ronald Acuna Jr., pointing out that the Braves’ superstar no longer needs a follow-up exam in Los Angeles and is still targeting an end-of-May return. Pisapia expects a rehab assignment to be announced soon and sees no reason to panic-sell or drop Acuna in leagues with limited IL spots. While he acknowledged some awkward vibes between Acuna and the Atlanta front office over the initial hamstring diagnosis, Pisapia emphasized that the medical update keeps the original, relatively short timetable intact, making Acuna worth stashing in every format.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised laying the runs with Atlanta. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has issued nine walks and failed to survive the 4th inning in two straight outings, a bad fit against a Braves lineup hitting .272 at home. Meanwhile Chris Sale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three consecutive starts, fanning 10 in his last outing and stretching to seven innings. Cincinnati has lost five of six and scored just one run over its previous two games. The tout argued that with Atlanta clawing back toward .500 after a 5-13 start, Sale’s form and the Reds’ sputtering offense make the Braves worthy favorites to win and cover.

RealGM’s simulations hand Atlanta a 5-4 win 62% of the time, converting to fair odds of –163, yet the posted line sits at –210. While that leaves limited value on the moneyline, the model still leans Braves because their offense, sixth in hard-hit rate, faces rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (2-0, 2.84 ERA) who has benefited from a .241 BABIP. Chris Sale (1-3, 4.84 ERA) has been volatile, but his 28% strikeout rate hints at upside against a Reds lineup striking out 26% versus southpaws. The computer also recommends Over 8 runs given Truist Park’s friendly dimensions and two bullpens carrying ERAs north of 4.30.

Guy Boston leaned to Atlanta –0.5 in the first five innings, trusting Chris Sale’s rebound more than Andrew Abbott’s hot start. Sale has strung together three quality outings, punching out 22 hitters over 17.1 IP while sitting 95 mph, whereas Abbott’s 4.52 SIERA and 89 % strand rate scream regression. Cincinnati’s offense is in one of its patented valleys—scoring one run combined in its last two games—while the Braves have at least shown signs of life with back-to-back four-run outputs after a tough Dodgers series. He called the full-game total under 9 a viable secondary look but made the F5 run-line the play because Atlanta’s bullpen has been taxed the past two days.

Data Skrive’s Tuesday best bets include Atlanta on the ‑211 moneyline and the over 8 runs. Cincinnati has dropped three straight to fall to 18-18, and its rotation owns a 4.66 ERA. The Braves, 16-18 but favored by the market and the model, are projected to jump on a fatigued Reds bullpen that was forced to cover 10 innings over the weekend. The sim output cleared the posted total thanks to those pitching concerns on both sides of Truist Park.

Data Skrive advised backing Atlanta on the –1.5 run line at –101 rather than swallowing the –211 moneyline. The Braves have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 and are 4-2 this season when priced at –211 or shorter. Their offense is heating up (4.7 runs per game, eight homers over the last 10) and Austin Riley enters on a four-game hitting streak (.316 with two bombs in that span). Cincinnati’s bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA and the Reds are just 1-1 as underdogs in their previous two tries, while Atlanta’s implied win probability from the books (67.8%) closely mirrors the model’s 53% straight-up edge but provides better payout if they win by two or more. Given Sale’s ability to miss bats (9.1 K/9) and a Braves lineup that ranks top-10 in walks, the projection calls for a multi-run cushion.

Data Skrive’s Tuesday best bets include Atlanta on the ‑211 moneyline and the over 8 runs. Cincinnati has dropped three straight to fall to 18-18, and its rotation owns a 4.66 ERA. The Braves, 16-18 but favored by the market and the model, are projected to jump on a fatigued Reds bullpen that was forced to cover 10 innings over the weekend. The sim output cleared the posted total thanks to those pitching concerns on both sides of Truist Park.

Data Skrive advised backing Atlanta on the –1.5 run line at –101 rather than swallowing the –211 moneyline. The Braves have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 and are 4-2 this season when priced at –211 or shorter. Their offense is heating up (4.7 runs per game, eight homers over the last 10) and Austin Riley enters on a four-game hitting streak (.316 with two bombs in that span). Cincinnati’s bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA and the Reds are just 1-1 as underdogs in their previous two tries, while Atlanta’s implied win probability from the books (67.8%) closely mirrors the model’s 53% straight-up edge but provides better payout if they win by two or more. Given Sale’s ability to miss bats (9.1 K/9) and a Braves lineup that ranks top-10 in walks, the projection calls for a multi-run cushion.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 final at Truist Park, landing on nine total runs and recommending the Over on the 8-run line. Their model leans that way despite only 40% of recent Braves games and 30% of recent Reds games clearing the number because both clubs combine for 8.7 runs per game over their last 10 contests. Chris Sale’s 9.1 K/9 is offset by the Reds’ .263 average and six doubles from TJ Friedl, while Atlanta’s lineup—anchored by Austin Riley’s .291 average and eight homers—still profiles for nearly five runs. With warm May weather in Atlanta and each bullpen carrying ERAs north of 3.50 (ATL 3.54, CIN 4.04), the model sees enough incremental offense to clear the total.

Boston bet Matt McLain UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. McLain carries a 31 % strike-out rate against lefties and is slugging just .298 on sliders and changeups—the two pitches making up 63 % of Chris Sale’s mix this year. Sale has limited right-handed hitters to a .205 xBA and piled up a 34 % whiff rate over his past three starts. With Cincinnati’s offense trending down and a cold, pitcher-friendly forecast at Great American Ball Park, opportunities for McLain to score or drive in runs look scarce.

Peterson grabbed Cincinnati at +195 (he made it +154) behind Andrew Abbott, who offsets a worrisome 5.4 BB/9 with 10.9 K/9 and a 2.84 ERA. Abbott also hands the ball to a bullpen ranked ninth in MLB ERA. Chris Sale’s 4.84 ERA looks unlucky, but his 1.3 HR/9 and 3.33 FIP still leave room for trouble in the Great American Ball Park launching pad. With the Reds quietly top-10 in pen performance and Sale no longer ace-level, Peterson labeled the near-2-to-1 payout a must-play.

Kenny G labeled Atlanta –225 his lock of the day despite the hefty tag. Chris Sale’s velocity and slider shape have trended up for a month, culminating in 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 2 ER against Colorado last time out. Over his last four starts the lefty owns a 2.70 ERA with a 33-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He now faces a Reds club whose offense whiplashes between explosions and goose eggs and is reeling after losing a starting outfielder to a broken forearm. Rookie Andrew Abbott is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA but has faced middling lineups (Cards, O’s, Pirates); Kenny doubts he can navigate Atlanta’s order twice. While the Braves bullpen (3.85 ERA) is not as airtight as 2024’s version, it still grades better than Cincinnati’s bats. Atlanta is 10-5 at Truist Park and trending upward offensively with Austin Riley scorching. Kenny passed on the low total of 8 but is comfortable laying the chalk on the Braves moneyline.

Drew Martin recommended backing Atlanta on a -1 composite line (half wager ML, half -1.5 RL) to cut the -205 juice against Cincinnati. He believes Chris Sale has turned a corner after fanning 10 with no walks over seven innings of two-run ball at Coors Field. Conversely, Martin is fading 25-year-old Andrew Abbott despite a shiny 2.80 ERA because the Reds lefty issued nine walks across his last two four-inning outings and actually had more walks than strikeouts in that span. With Atlanta’s offense heating up after a Sunday Night win over the Dodgers and both bullpens ranking top-10 (a wash), Martin views Sale’s form and the Braves lineup edge as decisive, expecting them to cover -1 even if they skip batting in the ninth as the home team.

Todd Zola advised benching Braves bats like Marcell Ozuna in daily leagues because Atlanta collectively struggles against breaking and off-speed pitches—exactly what Brady Singer leans on. Against those pitch types, Ozuna owns a .248 OPS this season, Michael Harris II sits at .281, while Ozzie Albies (.569) and Matt Olson (.571) are only marginally better. With Singer’s command-first profile and a neutralized Truist Park weather forecast, Zola sees limited upside for the normally potent Braves lineup.

Data Skrive relayed numberFire’s projection making Cincinnati a 57.6% favorite in Atlanta even though sportsbooks have the Reds sitting at +118 (implied 45.9%). That creates an 11-12 percentage-point edge for bettors willing to back Brady Singer and the 18-17 Reds against the 15-18 Braves and rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. With Atlanta still laying –138 in the market, the Reds’ moneyline offers the day’s clearest positive expected value according to the model.

Lawrence Rupp advised backing Matt Olson at +460 to leave the yard. Olson sits top-20 in hard-hit rate (59.1%), average exit velocity (95.2 mph) and barrel rate (18.2%) and has crushed 161 homers since 2021—fifth-most in MLB. Reds starter Brady Singer has coughed up a homer in four straight outings and has surrendered five total dingers in just two career appearances versus Atlanta. Olson has already taken Singer deep and has previous homers off trusted Cincinnati relievers Emilio Pagan and Graham Ashcraft, giving this ticket life right through the ninth inning.

At +125 the Reds carry a 44% implied chance, but Kingpin AI projects 48%, yielding +8% EV. The Braves are market darlings, yet the model flags a tighter game—likely thanks to the pitching matchup and Cincinnati’s recent form—making the Reds a profitable underdog stab.

The computer prints a 5-4 Atlanta victory and recommends Braves ‑155 and Under 8.5. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver’s 3.12 FIP suggests his 4.26 ERA is due for positive regression, while Brady Singer’s road splits (4.28 ERA away from Kauffman) drag down Cincinnati’s outlook. Truist Park suppresses left-handed power, limiting the Reds’ main weapon. Atlanta’s bullpen (3.36 ERA) versus Cincinnati’s 4.71 ERA pen provides the decisive late-inning edge that pushes the Braves across while keeping the total in check.

Kenny G leaned toward the Reds at +125 with Brady Singer on the hill, calling them his second ‘dog-of-the-day’ candidate. Singer owns a 3.24 ERA and is coming off six dominant innings of one-run ball versus St. Louis, while Atlanta counters with rookie AJ Smith-Shawver (4.26 ERA) whose best efforts came against weaker line-ups in Colorado and Tampa Bay. Kenny stressed that Cincinnati’s bullpen (3.66 ERA) is outperforming Atlanta’s (3.94) and that the Braves’ bats have been mediocre, ranking 17th in runs with just 4, 3, 1, 1, 8 runs in their last five contests. Although the Reds’ offense is feast-or-famine, he is skeptical Atlanta deserves a –148 price tag given its 14-18 record and middling production. He projected the true odds closer to a pick’em and advised sprinkling on the Reds money-line.

Eric Lindquist recommended taking the Reds first-five moneyline at +120 or better. He said Atlanta will be running on fumes after playing past 1:30 a.m. Saturday against the Dodgers and then doing the full Sunday-night-baseball media circuit. Lindquist expects at least one regular to start on the bench. More importantly, rookie A.J. Smith-Shaver owns ugly underlying numbers—a 401 xwOBA, .316 expected batting average, 14.5 % barrel rate and 17.1° average launch angle allowed—while the Cincinnati starter (he accidentally called him Brady Singer but stressed he is “way better” than Smith-Shaver) gives the Reds a clear edge. With Atlanta’s bullpen usage uncertain and Cincinnati’s young bats (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte) capable of quick offense, Lindquist called the plus-money first-five line “really good to me.”

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Reds, recommending both the moneyline and the team-total OVER. He noted Cincinnati’s recent form—7-3 last 10 with six-plus runs scored in three straight—and contrasted it with Smith-Shawver’s rising hit rate (six or more hits in three of the last four starts) and home-run issues. Smith likes that the Reds come in confident after a soft part of their schedule and face a pitcher allowing loud contact. He also cited Brady Singer’s 3.24 ERA and zero starts with more than three runs allowed as a stabilizing factor on the mound for Cincinnati, while Atlanta’s bats have been ice-cold since running into the Dodgers. Smith expects the Reds to push past four runs and cash plus-money team-total tickets.

Scott Reichel said the –150 price on Atlanta is "insane" and bet the Reds at +125. He wants to take advantage of the traditional Sunday-Night-Baseball fade on a team that travelled and is now laying a big number behind rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. Reichel pointed out that Smith-Shawver has a 4.26 ERA and has allowed six or more hits in three of his last four outings, while the Braves have just been swept by the Dodgers and look flat. Conversely, Cincinnati is 7-3 in its last 10 and has scored six-plus runs in three straight. Reichel likes the Reds’ ability to keep their recent offensive surge rolling against a hittable starter and an overpriced bullpen, noting that “nothing about this matchup justifies Atlanta as a –150 favorite.”

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the under, pointing out that both offenses have cratered: Cincinnati ranks 17th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA (.318), and 21st in ISO (.120) over the past week, while Atlanta sits 20th, 19th, and 24th in those categories with an alarming drop in power. Each starting pitcher has surrendered two runs or fewer in back-to-back outings, so the tout expects another quiet night and believes the posted total is at least a run too high.

It's The Final Round predicted Elly De La Cruz will torch Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver’s four-seam (41 % usage) is being ripped for a .394 average and a homer; De La Cruz is batting .400 (10-for-26) with two homers off four-seamers. The shortstop also owns a .400+ mark on curves and .357 with a homer on sliders, covering every secondary pitch the rookie throws. In two prior meetings De La Cruz is 2-for-2 with a homer. He has a hit in 15 of his last 17 contests. While his own sweet-spot rate is just 31.5 %, Smith-Shawver is seventh worst among qualifiers at 49.1 % allowed. The tout likes De La Cruz to clear hits/total-bases props and views him as a tournament-winning DFS piece.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Atlanta on the money line. Cincinnati just completed a rough stretch, dropping four of six while its pitching staff was knocked around. Although Singer (Reds) may rate slightly better than Smith-Shawver on paper, the Braves’ lineup can punish a staff searching for rhythm and benefits from home field at Truist Park. Given Cincinnati’s recent road woes, the tout feels the Braves are the safer side despite the short price.

Just A Bet Outside targeted Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver’s ugly underlying metrics by taking Reds team-total over 3.5 runs (−130, half-unit). Smith-Shawver sports a 6.74 xERA and 1.68 WHIP, has yet to allow fewer than two earned runs in any of his four career starts, and is especially vulnerable to left-handed pop (475 SLG allowed). Cincinnati can stack TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley and others from the left side. The Reds are surging: eighth in wRC+ (120), third in OPS and fifth in walk rate versus righties over the past three weeks, scoring 3+ runs in nine of their last 10 vs RHP (4+ in six). After Smith-Shawver’s typical 4-5 inning stint, Atlanta’s pen will be without its freshest arms after a high-leverage Sunday-night game against the Dodgers. All signs point to Cincy clearing four runs whether via early crooked number or a late bullpen implosion, making the over a strong correlated play.

Coming off a two-homer night, Austin Riley was the only Braves bat singled out by Data Skrive ahead of Monday’s tilt with Cincinnati. Their model lays ‑147 on Atlanta but still projects Under 8.5 total runs, implying a low-scoring game where Riley supplies the thunder. Bettors can exploit that read by pairing a Braves ML ticket with a Riley HR prop instead of chasing the full-game Over, while DFS players get tournament-winning upside at third base.