Peterson took Arizona +100 but made them -112, leaning on Zac Gallen’s career 3.10 ERA and 0.9 HR/9 at Chase Field. Tony Gonsolin is just two starts removed from the IL and still flashing last year’s issues (4.98 ERA, 1.7 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9). The D-backs lineup has led MLB in runs per game since the start of 2024, giving Gallen ample support.

Brad Francis called the Diamondbacks’ team total over 4.5 his favorite play of the day. Arizona had cleared its number in 11 straight meetings with the Dodgers prior to Saturday’s hiccup, and Francis expects a quick reversion. Tony Gonsolin has faced only Miami this season and was roughed up in his last start; now he must pitch in hitter-friendly Chase Field against a deeper lineup. Francis anticipates a high-scoring game on both sides but feels safest banking on the D-backs to reach five runs again.

Guy Boston recommended taking Arizona on the first-five moneyline at plus money in the Corbin Burnes vs Dustin May showdown. Burnes has limited the current Dodger roster to a .205 batting average over 99 plate appearances and owns a 28 % strike-out rate at home this year, while May has yet to work past the fifth inning since returning from the flexor injury and still sits 1.1 mph below his pre-injury four-seam velocity. Boston pointed out that Los Angeles’ high-leverage trio (Miller, Gonsolin, Thompson) all threw last night, whereas the Diamondbacks’ pen was fresher, making the early-game angle more attractive than a full-game wager. With both offenses averaging 5.6 and 5.2 runs per game, he prefers isolating the Burnes edge before bullpens and big bats can flip scripts later. Boston set his fair price at –105 and said anything +110 or better is a bet.

Tokyo Brandon advised backing the Dodgers at -110 to -115 because Arizona’s bullpen and lineup cannot support Corbin Burnes over nine innings. In his rankings the Dodgers bullpen sits 10th while the Diamondbacks crater at 26th and are "spent" after deploying their best relievers in last night’s collapse. Offensively, Los Angeles is 6th in MLB hitting versus Arizona’s 14th. Burnes still rates #15 among starters—five spots better than Dustin May at #20—but May owns a superior balls-to-strikes ratio and should keep the game close early. Brandon predicted a tight first five innings followed by LA’s deeper lineup and fresher, superior bullpen pulling away, echoing last night’s comeback win fueled by Shohei Ohtani’s ninth-inning homer. With that structural edge and a modest price, he labeled the Dodgers moneyline his second free play.

Guy Boston played Mookie Betts over 0.5 hits at –280 on DraftKings as the fifth leg of his Saturday parlay. Betts has produced at least one hit in seven of his last ten contests, averaging 1.4 knocks per game during that stretch. For the season he has cleared this line in 23 of 36 outings (64 %) while carrying a 1.03-hit per-game average. The matchup sweetens against Arizona: Betts has cashed the prop in eight of his last twelve meetings with the Diamondbacks—including five straight—and logged back-to-back two-hit efforts on May 8 and May 9. In ten career plate appearances versus projected starter Corbin Burnes he owns a .333 average (3-for-9 plus a walk). Boston noted Betts’ platoon advantage: his batting average, BABIP, hard-hit rate, and WRC+ all climb against right-handed pitching like Burnes. Meanwhile Burnes’ splits show spikes in batting average allowed, ERA, and FIP when facing right-handed hitters, with only a slight BABIP dip. Since the prop requires just a single base knock, Boston called it the “ safest leg” of the +398 parlay.

Zola told readers to keep Corbin Burnes on the bench and off DFS rosters. Burnes returns from a missed turn with shoulder inflammation and his strikeout rate has fallen four percentage points year over year while his sinker is down 1 mph. Facing the Dodgers’ top-three offense in Chase Field, THE BAT X projects only 5.7 IP and 5.8 K with elevated blow-up risk, placing Burnes outside Zola’s 'circle of trust' for the weekend.

Todd Zola thought a $16 FAAB bid on Hyeseong Kim was too aggressive. He noted that once Tommy Edman’s ankle heals, Kim will be fighting for reps with Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, and James Outman. Unless Taylor is DFA’d, Zola doubts Kim reaches the five-starts-per-week workload that a bid that size implies. While Kim’s early steals help category-chasing managers, Zola views him as a short-term fill-in rather than a rest-of-season regular and would only spend big if absolutely desperate for speed and multi-position eligibility.

The tout recommended the UNDER despite the teams combining for 25 runs the night before. Reasoning: Dustin May, though hittable, is unlikely to be torched again, and Burns has looked steady. He expects both managers to ride their starters deeper to protect shaky bullpens, which should shorten the highest-leverage innings for relievers. Arizona’s pen, while suspect, is less likely to implode two straight nights. Given the market reaction to the previous explosion, Cash Out Sports Picks believes the posted total is inflated and ripe for an underplay landing in a moderate-scoring range.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Diamondbacks moneyline versus the Dodgers. He pointed out that Dustin May has fallen off after a hot start—14 runs allowed over his last three outings and a 27-hit, 14-walk ledger in 33 innings, suggesting control problems and hittable stuff. Corbin Burns (in his first Arizona season) has settled in, yielding only four earned over his last 17.1 frames. Burns has historically stifled LA bats (.205 average, .286 OBP in 88 AB with 25 K). Arizona also owns a strong bounce-back profile after losses. With LA overpriced off an emotional six-run ninth-inning comeback and May’s form shaky, the tout sees value on the Snakes to steal Game 3 at Chase Field.

Kenny G also played the over 9 runs. His reasoning: both clubs mash (Arizona 5th in runs, L.A. still top-8 in most categories), neither bullpen is trustworthy (Dodgers middle-of-the-pack, D-backs 4.78 ERA), and he is outright pessimistic about Dustin May’s current stuff. May’s strikeout rate is down nearly four percentage points from his pre-injury peak, while Burnes has pitched well but seldom gets deep because Torey Lovullo yanks him after 90-95 pitches, exposing that shaky pen. The park doesn’t hurt—Chase Field is playing 8% above league average for run scoring so far. Kenny added that Dodgers road games are 9-8 to the over and expects another back-and-forth slugfest that pushes double digits.

Halterman called Ben Casparius a sneaky add for leagues that value wins regardless of starter/reliever labels. The right-hander owns a 2.81 ERA (2.84 SIERA), 1.05 WHIP, 27 % K and 5 % BB on the season. Used as a bulk ‘follower’ behind openers, Casparius notched two wins in his last two appearances, striking out 10 with one earned run over 7.2 IP. Halterman trusts Dodgers pitcher development and notes that pitching after an opener actually boosts Casparius’ chance at cheap wins since he doesn’t need five full innings. Role volatility makes him format-dependent, but his ratios and win equity make him worth the roster spot while he occupies L.A.’s swingman job.

Eric Halterman said Ha-Seong Kim is worth a speculative add after the Dodgers brought him back up from Triple-A. Kim re-worked his swing in the minors, trading some contact for pop – five homers in just 28 AAA games after never topping 11 in the KBO – while his strikeout rate spiked from 11 % to 24 %. Halterman still expects elite wheels (40-steal potential in everyday run) and notes the Dodgers’ strong track record of squeezing extra value out of hitters. Even if Kim slides into a bench role once L.A. is healthy, the combination of multi-position eligibility, top-tier speed, and the possibility the power gains stick makes him useful in deeper season-long formats.

Kenny G went back to the well with Arizona at +100. He noted Corbin Burnes has quietly strung together three straight quality starts (no more than two earned in any of them) and owns a 3.58 ERA despite the club dropping two of those outings. The Diamondbacks’ lineup is carrying the squad – 5th in MLB in runs and 4th in slugging (.430) – and is now 20-18 after ‘tearing it up’ the past two weeks. Kenny is fading Dustin May, saying he “doesn’t see a very good day” for the Dodger right-hander who has struggled to miss bats since returning from forearm trouble. He pointed out Los Angeles is only 8-9 on the road and 9-8 to the over away from Chavez Ravine, suggesting they are far from dominant when they travel. Arizona’s bullpen is a concern (4.78 ERA) but he’s willing to live with it at even money given Burnes’ form and the home offense’s fire-power. Bottom line: value on the hotter lineup and the sharper starter makes the Snakes a playable home pup.

Scott Reichel wants no part of Dustin May until the right-hander fixes his mechanics after surrendering 14 runs and five homers in his past three outings. Arizona has posted a .347 wOBA versus sinker/curve pitchers like May and should benefit from Chase Field’s 12% home-run boost. Reichel therefore skipped the side and played Diamondbacks team total Over 4.5 at –115. He noted that Arizona has cleared five runs in four of its last six home games, while the Dodgers bullpen has worked the fifth-most innings this month because May cannot reach the sixth. Reichel projected six earned runs for Arizona and labeled the team total a standalone play or same-game-parlay anchor.

Lonte Smith said any number below –140 on Los Angeles is an automatic play despite Dustin May’s slump (14 earned runs in his last three starts). He trusts the lineup’s league-best wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and pointed out that Ryne Nelson Burns has dropped three straight decisions to L.A., allowing 13 runs (only five earned) in that stretch. Arizona’s recent wins came against light-hitting Tampa and Washington, and Smith questioned the Diamondbacks’ consistency. With the Dodgers 11-4 as road favorites and still fielding Betts-Ohtani-Freeman atop the order, he made the fair line –150 and grabbed anything in the −110 to −135 window.

The host expects Freddie Freeman to keep his 13-game hitting streak alive against Corbin Burnes. Freeman owns a 2-for-6 (.333) career mark versus Burnes and, paired with his current form, is a strong candidate for single-hit props or inclusion in multi-leg parlays Saturday.

The host pointed to Mookie Betts’ 3-for-9 (.333) career line against Corbin Burnes and a recent run of hits in eight of his last 11 games as justification for sprinkling Betts’ hit prop or rolling him into same-game parlays with other Dodgers bats on Saturday.

It's The Final Round highlighted Shohei Ohtani as a "fire" play to record a hit against Corbin Burnes. Ohtani is 3-for-6 (.500) with a homer off Burnes and has collected at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 contests. Given the combination of strong BvP history and current form, the host suggested Ohtani’s total bases or simple hit prop is worth backing in Saturday’s Dodgers–Diamondbacks clash.

Kenny G leaned to the Dodgers at –130 in Game 2 at Chase Field. Rookie Roki Sasaki has been "consistently decent" with a 3.86 ERA, and Los Angeles backs him with a top-10 bullpen (3.52 ERA). Arizona counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 5.92 ERA includes a 10-strikeout outing that still featured four earned runs and a homer. Kenny likes the pitching gap and also trusts L.A.’s offense—despite missing Teoscar Hernandez—more than the D’backs, who rely on an inconsistent lineup and a leaky bullpen. With both the starter and relief edges plus only modest juice, he views the Dodgers as the right side, though he categorized it as a lighter "lean" rather than a full unit play.

Lonte Smith prefers attacking Eduardo Rodriguez directly and played the Dodgers’ FIRST-FIVE team-total Over (projected 2.5). Rodriguez has coughed up six-plus hits in four straight starts, owns a 6.28 ERA across his last five, and has been tagged for four home runs in his past two outings. Smith noted that the left-hander’s whiff rate has cratered, producing a 92% contact rate when he falls behind in counts. That is disastrous against a Los Angeles lineup that is slugging .512 versus southpaws and just finished a 4–2 stretch despite facing three straight road series. Roki Sasaki’s incremental workload increases eliminate any concern about figuring out the bullpen plan early, so Smith expects the Dodgers to plate three or four runs by the end of the fifth and ‘never look back.’

Scott Reichel argued the Dodgers are a must-bet at –135 because the starting-pitcher disparity is huge. Roki Sasaki has surrendered three runs or fewer in five straight outings, is stretching out deeper each start, and is holding opponents to a .208 OBP despite giving up a solo homer in three consecutive games. That ‘serviceable’ baseline is more than enough, Reichel said, when the L.A. offense ranks top-3 in wRC+ and has gone 4-2 on its current three-city road trip. Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, has become ‘Bumgarner 2.0’ for Arizona: 6.28 ERA over his last five, four home runs allowed in his past two, and six-plus hits surrendered in four straight. The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has a 4.91 ERA the last ten games, so even an early exit won’t save them. Reichel concluded the market is pricing this like a neutral matchup when L.A. owns clear edges in the rotation, lineup, and bullpen.

Lindquist likes a Corbin Carroll home-run prop against Dodgers left-hander ‘Roki Susaki’ and the L.A. bullpen, provided books hang a number better than +305. Susaki’s MLB debut has come with a troubling .374 xwOBA and 13.3-degree launch angle, and Chase Field’s roof is slated to be open, a configuration that boosts carry to right-center where Carroll’s power plays. Lindquist acknowledged the Dodgers’ quick hook with starters, but even their middle relief features several right-handers that struggle with lefty barrels. Carroll’s 10.8 % barrel rate and 114 mph max EV confirm the upside. He will wait for morning lines, but any +310 or longer is worth a unit for him.

Chris Welsh flagged Freddie Freeman’s home-run prop (around +450 on FanDuel) or 2+ total bases as one of his favorite tickets tonight against Brandon Pfaadt. Welsh called Pfaadt’s long-ball track record “the entire reason the NRFI is only –105,” noting that the right-hander has coughed up 1.7 HR/9 on the season and a .525 SLG to lefties, allowing at least one homer in three of his last four starts. Freeman, meanwhile, carries a 46 % hard-hit rate, .301 ISO versus right-hand pitching, and the league’s third-best contact rate on pitches in the zone. Welsh thinks Pfaadt will survive the opening frame but eventually “leave one out there” for Freeman to pull into the right-field pavilion, making the HR prop and total-bases overs both viable in DFS and betting markets.

Joe Pisapia said James Outman is a perfectly serviceable plug-and-play replacement for managers who just lost Teoscar Hernandez. Outman posted an .830 OPS with 8 homers in only 32 AAA games before the call-up and is rostered in barely 2–3 % of leagues, so the acquisition cost is next to nothing. Joe acknowledged the 35 % strike-out rate that doomed him last season, but noted that fantasy GMs can squeeze a week or two of cheap power while Teoscar sits and then simply toss Outman back on waivers when Hernandez is activated. The takeaway: spend zero or $1 FAAB for a short-term power lottery ticket and worry about the whiffs later.

Chris Welsh identified Corbin Carroll as a worthwhile NL MVP flier at roughly 5.5-to-1. Carroll revamped his swing and approach in the off-season, closing previous holes and pushing his average to .288 with 10 home runs despite a recent slump. Welsh expects Carroll’s stolen-base pace to accelerate and believes his production is directly tied to the Diamondbacks’ playoff hopes—a narrative boost if Arizona stays in the NL West race. The improved contact profile, rising power, and team-context angle make Carroll his favorite medium-odds alternative to Ohtani.

Chris Welsh said Shohei Ohtani is an automatic bet for NL MVP at the current +225 number because this is the best price the market has offered all year. Ohtani already owns 10 homers, 10 steals, and a .300 batting average while ranking in the top-2% of MLB in most batted-ball metrics. Welsh expects the RBI total to climb as the Dodgers’ lineup turns over and notes that if Ohtani resumes pitching later in the season, the narrative edge will grow even stronger. With Los Angeles projected to pile up wins, Welsh views any plus-money ticket on Ohtani as a clear value despite the shorter odds compared to longer-shot candidates.

Just A Bet Outside pointed out that Freddie Freeman remains a plug-and-play against southpaws, noting he is 6-for-12 (.500) with a homer versus Eduardo Rodriguez. Freeman also sits at a .458 average over the past seven days and owns a career .311/.403/.546 split against left-handed pitching. With E-Rod giving up a 41 % hard-hit rate to lefties this season, the host recommends taking Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases, sprinkling an RBI prop, and anchoring Dodgers stacks around him in DFS contests.

Drew Dinsick also recommended the under 9.0 runs, projecting the game for 7.6 runs after accounting for park factors and both starters’ underlying metrics. He noted Roki Sasaki’s 97-99 mph fastball still owns a 30% called-plus-swinging strike rate despite some command hiccups, while Eduardo Rodriguez’s new sweeper has hitters whiffing at a 41% clip. Neither club is likely to push pitch counts after each starter threw 95+ pitches last time out, shortening exposure to the softer underbelly of both lineups (bottom four hitters for each side combine for a .212 average). Chase Field’s retractable roof is expected to be closed with a 72-degree indoor environment, muting the usual desert ball-carry. Dinsick added that the Dodgers travel spot—third city in four days—historically shaves half a run off their implied team total. With both bullpens ranking top-10 in strand rate and the model showing a 58% probability the game lands 8 or fewer, he labeled under 9 his favorite wager on Friday’s slate.

Peterson played Under 10 (model 9.2) behind rookie Roki Sasaki’s consistency—three earned or fewer in all seven outings (3.89 ERA)—and Eduardo Rodriguez’s better-than-it-looks profile. Rodriguez has a bloated 5.92 ERA but a 4.06 FIP and 10.7 K/9; he’s also far steadier at Chase Field (4.42 home ERA vs 7.32 road). With two strikeout-capable starters and no extreme bullpen liabilities, Peterson believes the double-digit total is too high.

The computer spit out a contrarian recommendation, grabbing Arizona +110 and the Over 10 in the desert. Despite the Dodgers’ 25-13 mark, recent simulations rate this as a near coin-flip (52% D-backs win probability) once Chase Field’s run-boosting conditions and LA’s taxed bullpen are accounted for. With both rotations posting 4.50+ ERA over the last two turns, the model projects 6.0–5.5 in favor of Arizona, clearing the double-digit total and giving bettors plus-money on the home side.

Drew Dinsick said his NBC Sports Bet model makes Arizona a slight favorite on a neutral field and therefore grabbed the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) at home. He highlighted three data points powering the edge: 1) rookie phenom Roki Sasaki owns a 3.86 ERA but just a 19% strike-out rate through four MLB starts, a step down from his NPB dominance, and has yet to work past the sixth inning, putting Los Angeles’ overworked middle relief (4.35 bullpen ERA in May) in play. 2) Eduardo Rodriguez’s surface numbers look rough (5.92 ERA), but his 29% strike-out rate and 15% swinging-strike rate are both career highs, fresh off a 10-K performance in Philadelphia. 3) Arizona’s lineup is heating up—Gabriel Moreno and Corbin Carroll both carry xwOBA above .360 over the last two weeks—while the Dodgers’ order is top-heavy behind red-hot Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. With Chase Field boosting offense and the D-backs owning last-at-bat leverage, Dinsick estimated a 63% chance Arizona keeps the game within a run, making the +1.5 run line a solid value play.

JD Bets recommended backing the Dodgers moneyline at -160, arguing the number is surprisingly cheap given the mismatch on both mound and lineup. Los Angeles leads MLB in team average (.321), hits per game (11.7) and RBIs (7.6) while riding an 8-2 record over its last 10. Arizona’s offense is merely ‘above average,’ and JD expects Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s strong underlying metrics—elite outs-recorded rate and consistently solid strikeout totals—to keep the Diamondbacks in check. On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt’s volatility (6+ innings of work but 4.64 ERA) means L.A. should still plate runs even if the right-hander racks up punch-outs. With the Dodgers typically priced north of -200 in similar spots, JD called this a value play and locked it in as one of only two double-dip bets on the slim Thursday slate.

JD Bets played Brandon Pfaadt over 4.5 strikeouts against the Dodgers, laying out several reasons the plus-money prop is live. First, Los Angeles owns the league’s best batting average (.321) but still carries a hidden flaw: they rank 25th in strikeout rate, fanning 8.8 times per game overall and ‘damn near 10’ on the road. Pfaadt averages 5.0 punch-outs per start in 2025, and his history versus L.A. is encouraging—he hung 7 and 10 Ks on them in two meetings last season. The right-hander just struck out 12 Brewers in his last outing and routinely works six full innings unless he completely implodes (only the Phillies chased him early this year). JD acknowledged Pfaadt will likely give up hits to the Dodgers’ deep lineup, but emphasized Arizona lets him work through trouble, creating enough volume to clear five strikeouts. He called it a ‘short-slate fun bet’ worth double-dipping alongside other action.

Guy Boston endorsed Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases at –120 on FanDuel. Freeman is scorching right now, clearing this line in seven of his last ten games and in four straight, piling up 4.4 total bases per contest over that recent five-game span. Season-long numbers back it up—he has hit the over in 15 of 26 outings (58 %) with a 2.58 TB average. The matchup amplifies things: Freeman has cashed in seven of his last 13 meetings with Arizona (2.62 TB/G) and five of the last seven. Versus tonight’s starter Brandon Pfaadt he owns a .364 average and .818 slugging across 11 plate appearances, producing nine total bases and three extra-base hits. Boston also spotlighted Freeman’s absurd splits against right-handed pitching in 2025—a .388 average, .403 ISO, 50 % extra-base-hit rate—compared to Pfaadt’s 3.79 ERA and .272 average allowed overall, with both ERA and slugging worsening when he faces left-handed bats. Boston concluded that the convergence of red-hot form, elite righty splits, and favorable head-to-head data makes the –120 price a “fantastic” buy for the over.

Servodidio recommended backing the Dodgers -1.5 runline (-105) and 1st-5 -0.5 RL (-110), leaning on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Cy Young–caliber form and a lopsided pitching duel. Yamamoto sports a 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, 32.0% K rate, 32.6% whiff rate, 4.4% barrel rate, and .210 xBA; Los Angeles is 5-2 in his starts with four multi-run victories, and the right-hander stifled Arizona last year (two runs allowed, 13:3 K:BB in 12.1 IP). The Diamondbacks have cooled markedly versus righties over the past week (.302 wOBA 22nd, 88 wRC+ 24th, 26.4% K rate 28th), making the timing ideal. Meanwhile, Servodidio wants to fade Brandon Pfaadt, who just surrendered seven runs to Philadelphia and owns indicator stats that scream regression (5.31 xERA, 4.42 FIP, .306 xBA – 7th percentile, 45.5% hard-hit rate – 23rd, career-low 20.7% K rate, 6.20 ERA in four career starts vs LA). The Dodgers, MLB’s best offense against right-handed pitching (.378 wOBA, 145 wRC+, .286 AVG on the season; .390 wOBA, 151 wRC+, .305 AVG last week), should punish those weaknesses and cash the runline once again.

OddsTrader’s model forecasts only 0.293 total bases for Michael Conforto, making the +140 Under on 0.5 total bases attractive. Conforto owns a brutal split against his last 76 righties: .000 ISO, .149 wOBA, 31.6% K-rate, 55% ground-ball rate, 15% line-drive rate, 0% barrels and a .100 BABIP—numbers that threaten his roster spot. He faces Brandon Pfaadt, who limits lefties to 42.5% grounders, 16.2% fly balls, a 23% strikeout rate and just 3.5% walks despite allowing a .217 ISO. Given Conforto’s severe lack of lift and hard contact, the model backs the Under at plus odds.

Kyle Kargel advised taking Michael Conforto to go deep at +630 despite the veteran’s ugly .139 season average. He pointed to Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt allowing 7 homers in 40.1 IP (2 in his last outing) and struggling specifically with left-handed hitters, who account for 6 of those 7 bombs. Conforto owns a strong track record against Pfaadt (3-for-7 with 2 homers) and historically does his damage on the road, smoking 17 of his 20 homers away from Dodger Stadium last season with a .530 road SLG. Those matchup edges and the juicy +630 number make Conforto Kargel’s value HR prop of the night.

Data Skrive passed along numberFire’s 59.4% win probability for Los Angeles behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto against Brandon Pfaadt. The Dodgers are ‑154 (60.6% implied), but the model likes the matchup: Yamamoto’s 2.41 SIERA and 34% K rate meet a Diamondbacks lineup that is league-average versus righties. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has surrendered a .341 xwOBA and struggles the third time through. LA’s bullpen owns MLB’s best WHIP (1.06). The tout favors Dodgers ML and endorses a sprinkle on Dodgers ‑1.5 at +115 for bettors chasing a bigger payout.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Dodgers straight up in Thursday’s opener at Chase Field. He highlighted a massive pitching mismatch: Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 32.2% strike-out rate and 61.5% ground-ball rate through his first 40 MLB innings, allowing only four earned runs while punching out 49. In two prior matchups the current Diamondbacks roster has managed just a .125/.192/.208 slash and two total runs against him. Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, whose expected ERA sits at 5.31 with opponents posting a .306 xBA and loud contact rates. Team metrics support the play—Arizona ranks 25th in staff ERA (4.47) and is bottom-tier in hits allowed and WHIP, while the Dodgers are slugging right-handers at a .261 clip. The Diamondbacks hit only .248 versus righties and have cooled recently (17th in wRC+ the past week). With a deep LA lineup and a vulnerable Arizona pen behind Pfaadt, he projected something like 6-2 in favor of Los Angeles and called the moneyline the safest bet on the entire Thursday card.

For Thursday’s NL West clash in Phoenix, Zarpentine recommended Under 4.5 Hits Allowed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto at plus money. The Japanese ace owns a microscopic 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through seven starts and has kept opponents to four hits or fewer in four of those outings. He limited a potent Braves lineup to one hit over six innings in his most recent start. Arizona’s offense has sputtered when facing top-tier pitching over the past week, giving Zarpentine confidence that Yamamoto can repeat the feat and stay below the hit threshold.

Lawrence Rupp recommended Freddie Freeman at +380 to homer in Arizona, noting the Dodgers star is on a tear: .480/.519/.920 slash with three homers and a triple through six May games. Freeman ranks top-10 in launch-angle sweet-spot percentage (44%) and squared-up percentage (46.5%), proof he is consistently squaring the baseball. Brandon Pfaadt has surrendered six home runs in his last six starts and owns a 6.20 ERA in four career outings versus the Dodgers. Freeman has already taken Pfaadt deep once, and he mashes at Chase Field with a .373/.433/.702 career line and 41 extra-base hits in just 55 games there. Rupp believes the matchup sets up perfectly for another long ball.

Rob Donaldson hammered the first-five over 4.5 in Dodgers-D-backs despite Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s sparkling ERA. He flagged Yamamoto’s 45% hard-hit rate and a creeping barrel percentage that suggests looming regression, especially in the desert. On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt relentlessly attacks the zone and owns a 1.7 HR/9, a dangerous mix versus a Los Angeles lineup stacked with hot lefty power—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, among others. With both pitchers willing to challenge and elite bats on each side, Rob saw a cheap number and fired four units on the over.

Kenny G said the plus-135 moneyline on Arizona is the best underdog price on Thursday’s short slate and could end up as his Dog of the Day. He thinks Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s gaudy 0.90 ERA is partly schedule-driven – his last three starts came against the Braves, Pirates and Rangers, none of which rank top-10 in any major hitting metric. The Diamondbacks, by contrast, sit 4th in runs, 9th in OBP and 4th in slugging and have several red-hot bats (he singled out Josh Naylor and Corbin Carroll). Kenny expects that depth to challenge Yamamoto while noting the Dodgers’ lineup is a bit thinned by the absence of Enrique Hernandez, their top OBP and RBI man. Los Angeles’ bullpen (3.52 ERA) is good but not elite, which could matter late because Arizona’s pen is a shaky 4.70 but the home side will bat last. Brandon Pfaadt is coming off a blow-up in Philadelphia, yet Kenny reminded listeners he was 5-2 with a 3.79 ERA prior to that and projects a bounce-back in pitcher-friendly Chase Field. With L.A. just 8-9 on the road and the travel from Miami to Phoenix baked in, Kenny made the fair number closer to +120 and advised grabbing the D-backs at anything better than +130.

It's The Final Round included Shohei Ohtani among his preferred hitters versus Brandon Fott even though Ohtani’s launch-angle sweet-spot rate isn’t elite. The two-way star is 2-for-6 (.333) against Fott, and he’s recorded a hit in nine of his last ten games. Given Fott’s bottom-of-the-barrel 42.3% sweet-spot contact allowed and his struggles with four-seamers and sinkers—pitches Ohtani profiles well against—the tout still sees value in backing Ohtani for a hit or total bases.

It's The Final Round recommended backing Mookie Betts for hits or total-bases props against Brandon Fott. Versus right-handed hitters, Fott leans on a sweeper 38% of the time and Betts is batting .300 with three hits in 10 career ABs off sweepers. The sinker (30% usage) is even worse for Fott—he’s yielding a .563 average—while Betts is 6-for-16 (.375) against sinkers this season. Fott’s four-seam (26%) has been tattooed for a .364 average and three HRs; Betts owns a .270 mark with two bombs on that pitch in a large sample. Historically Betts is 4-for-11 (.364) vs Fott and enters having hit safely in seven of his last nine games. Although Betts ranks mid-pack in launch-angle sweet spot (33.6%, 136th/258), Fott’s poor 42.3% sweet-spot surrender rate (326th/364) creates a plus matchup. The tout expects Betts to notch at least one hit with strong multi-hit upside.

It's The Final Round said Freddie Freeman is an elite hitting prop target against Brandon Fott tonight. Freeman owns a .375 average (12-for-32, 3 HR) off four-seam fastballs, the pitch Fott throws 33% of the time. He also mashes Fott’s change-up (.500 in a limited four-AB sample) while the rookie right-hander has coughed up a .240 mark and a homer on that offering in 25 opponent ABs. Freeman brings a 12-game hitting streak and a .308 career mark (4-for-13, 1 HR) specifically versus Fott. The launch-angle sweet-spot metric really seals it: Freeman sits 10th out of 258 qualified hitters at 44%, while Fott surrenders that ideal window 42.3% of the time, ranking a miserable 326th out of 364 pitchers. Add in Fott’s ugly .381 allowed average and three bombs on his curveball and the tout expects multiple total bases or at least one hit with upside for a homer.

Just A Bet Outside paired Freddie Freeman with Trea Turner in his plus-hit parlay, arguing Freeman alone is worth the wager. Freeman owns a 12-game hit streak, a .480 average over the last seven days, and five total bases in three straight contests. The slugger is 4-for-11 lifetime off Brandon Pfaadt and, according to the tout, is now “pretty much matchup-proof.” Pfaadt coughed up a .294 average to lefties last season and is at .264 so far in 2024, suggesting little improvement. With Freeman clubbing a .344 average on the year and the game in hitter-friendly Chavez Ravine, the host expects the first baseman to notch at least one safety easily, recommending the over 0.5 hits or including him in parlays.

Dylan Rockford jumped on Dodgers –1.5 at +114 (and first-five –0.5) because you almost never see plus money attached to the sport’s best pitcher. Yamamoto owns a 0.90 season ERA, has allowed only one road run, and is limiting hitters to an absurd .048 batting average away from Dodger Stadium. Rockford acknowledged Brandon Pfaadt’s respectable campaign but noted the right-hander just gave up seven runs in 4.2 innings to Philadelphia and now faces an even deeper lineup anchored by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. Arizona is coming off a shutout loss and ranks bottom-10 in OPS versus righties. Even with Teoscar Hernandez sidelined, Rockford’s model makes L.A. –210 and –1.5 at –115, creating a clear edge at the current +114 price.

Scott Reichel said the best way to attack Dodgers-D-backs is the under 8.5 because Yamamoto simply refuses to allow runs. The rookie has yielded exactly ONE earned run over his last five outings (31.2 IP) and has yet to surrender a homer on the road while holding opponents to a .148 clip overall. Reichel respects Brandon Pfaadt’s year-over-year improvement (3.79 ERA) and thinks he can keep L.A. in check, especially with Teoscar Hernandez on the IL removing a middle-of-the-order bat. Arizona’s lineup has scored zero through seven innings against the Mets as they record, underscoring its present funk. With both starters capable, the Dodgers traveling without a key slugger, and Chase Field’s roof closed for a warm afternoon, Reichel projected 7.4 total runs and locked in the under at –110.