If Philadelphia’s rain clears, Razzle plans to roster Ranger Suarez. The lefty threw nearly 80 pitches in his final rehab start, and Razzle loves attacking Arizona with southpaws. Suarez’s K-prop is a modest 3.5 (juice to the over), so the tout will also monitor outs props, but the combination of pitch count readiness, platoon edge, and likely sub-15 percent ownership makes him a solid mid-tier play.

Razzle is keeping Eduardo Rodriguez in his pool for tournaments. Although E-Rod just surrendered three homers to the Mets, he has already logged 9-K and 12-K gems in 2025. His 5.5 K-prop is one of only five that high on the slate, and the Phillies can run hot-and-cold offensively. Razzle acknowledged the home-run risk but feels Rodriguez’s 30-DK-point ceiling is worth exposure in multi-entry builds.

Morgan labeled Trea Turner a bargain at $3,000. Turner is batting .303 with six steals and carries an .897 OPS at Citizens Bank Park since arriving in Philadelphia. He draws Eduardo Rodriguez, who is coughing up 1.65 HR/9 this year, creating cheap power/speed upside for DFS lineups.

The over was advised because both offenses can contribute. Arizona ranks fourth in MLB in total runs and faces Suarez in his season debut, a spot where rust could surface. Rodriguez’s 6.06 ERA and eight-run meltdown last outing suggest Philadelphia will score as well. With the Diamondbacks’ recent run-prevention woes and the park’s hitter-friendly reputation, Cash Out Sports projects enough offense to eclipse the total.

Brad Francis is comfortable with Phillies ‑130 at home. Philly has taken four straight in Citizens Bank Park against Arizona. Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 6+ ERA and a .301 opponent average through five starts, making him a fade in Francis’ book. Ranger Suarez makes his season debut for Philadelphia; despite the unknown, Francis trusts the bullpen depth and the lineup’s current form to keep a lead. He labels the price ‘safe’ given the matchup trends.

Kenny G advocated laying the modest –130 with Philadelphia, framing it as a buy on Ranger Suarez and a sell on sputtering Arizona. Suarez looked dominant in four rehab starts (1.08 ERA, 24 K, 5 BB over 16.2 IP) and stretched out to 78 pitches, which Kenny believes translates to at least five strong big-league innings. Meanwhile Eduardo Rodriguez has cratered to a 6.06 ERA, was ‘obliterated’ by the Mets, and now hands the ball to a D-backs bullpen sporting a 4.37 ERA. Arizona’s offense has gone ice-cold—2, 2, 4, 3 runs their last four—and the club has dropped the first two games of the series. Philadelphia has won six of seven, with Kyle Schwarber continuing his power binge and Trea Turner sitting above .300 as the team climbs to 5th in OBP. Kenny conceded the Phillies’ 4.74 bullpen ERA is the only sweat, but he expects a lead by the time Rob Thomson calls for relievers. He set his own fair line at Phillies –150 and tagged this as an official moneyline play.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Phillies money line. Ranger Suarez showed sharp form in rehab starts and joins a staff that has stifled opponents, while Eduardo Rodriguez enters with a 6.06 ERA across six outings and was tagged for eight runs in his last start. Philadelphia has been playing clean, aggressive baseball and owns the home-field edge against a Diamondbacks lineup batting just .227 on the road.

Peterson bet Under 9, setting the total at 8.7. He trusts Ranger Suarez’s career-long 0.8 HR/9 even though the lefty faded to a 5.65 ERA after last year’s All-Star break, expecting a sharper version in his season debut. Eduardo Rodriguez’s bloated 6.06 ERA masks a 4.04 FIP and 9.6 K/9, numbers Peterson says scream bad luck. With two ground-ball-leaning southpaws and cool afternoon temps in Philly, he sees limited long-ball damage and a path to the under.

Kenny G leaned toward the Diamondbacks at +105, arguing the price underrates how vulnerable Philadelphia looks right now. Aaron Nola may have tossed seven strong frames at Wrigley, but he is still win-less with a 5.40 ERA and a .278 opponent average on the season. Kenny pointed out the bigger concern is the Phillies’ bullpen: a 4.70 ERA that sits in the bottom third of MLB and has already blown five saves. Offensively Philadelphia has not been the nightmare many projected—just 13th in runs and 17th in slugging, having produced 3, 2, 7, 7, 3 and 10 runs their last six. Arizona, meanwhile, owns a winning 9-6 road record and turns to Brandon Pfaadt, who Kenny expects to out-duel the struggling Nola enough to hand things to a more reliable Arizona relief corps. With comparable lineups and the pitching edge tilting slightly toward the D-backs, Kenny said the plus money is simply too good to pass.

Dylan Rockford laid –120 with Philadelphia, calling it a fair price given home/road splits. Aaron Nola flashed signs of life on Sunday Night Baseball (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K vs Cubs) and historically owns a sub-3.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are 11-5 at home and hitting .276 there, while Arizona’s lineup slashes just .230/.295/.383 on the road. Brandon Pfaadt has been a pleasant surprise, but his 43.5% hard-hit rate leaves blow-up potential versus a Philly order that ranks fourth in barrel rate. Rockford power-rated the game at –125 and expects Nola’s K-changeup combo to handle a Snakes roster striking out 25% versus righties.

Purviance made Arizona his “dog of the day,” backing them at +105 and even sprinkling an alternate –1.5. Brandon Pfaadt owns a 24 % strikeout rate and 3.31 xFIP over his last four starts, numbers hidden by his 4.34 ERA. Aaron Nola, meanwhile, is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA and a declining whiff rate. The Snakes strike out less than any team in baseball (18.2 % vs RHP) while Philadelphia is just 18th in OPS and bottom-five in homers against righties. Purviance piled on the Phillies’ bullpen—second-worst ERA in MLB at 5.11—arguing Arizona will grind Nola out early and feast on shaky relievers late.

Despite Aaron Nola’s 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA, the projection is Phillies 5-4 with a -125 ticket. The computer leans on Philadelphia’s 18-14 record and Citizens Bank Park’s power-suppressing weather. It also expects Brandon Pfaadt’s 2.78 ERA to backslide versus a top-5 lineup, making the Under 9.5 a companion play.

Erik Halterman urged fantasy managers to grab Ranger Suarez ahead of his weekend return from back issues. Suarez posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23 % K-rate, 6.5 % BB-rate, and 52 % ground-ball rate last season, and he looked dominant on rehab (1.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24 K, 5 BB in 16.2 IP). Halterman reminded listeners that Suarez carried a 1.75 ERA through his first 15 starts of 2023 before the back acted up. The injury history means you can’t bank on volume, but while healthy he offers ratio help, ground-ball suppression, and plenty of win potential on a strong Phillies club.

Erik Halterman advised speculating on Shelby Miller—and to a lesser extent Kevin Ginkel or Ryan Thompson—as the Diamondbacks sort out the ninth inning. With AJ Puk (elbow) on the 60-day IL and Justin Martinez joining him after a velocity dip, Miller and Thompson have split the last two saves. Halterman prefers Miller, citing 13.2 scoreless innings, a 0.59 WHIP, 30 % strikeout rate, 8 % walk rate, and a velocity bump of roughly 1 mph compared to 2023. Two years ago Miller logged a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with the Dodgers, showing the upside is real. Halterman expects Miller to lead—if not outright seize—the committee and provide cheap saves.

Drew Martin took Arizona +115 in Philadelphia, leaning on Brandon Pfaadt’s form and fading Aaron Nola. Pfaadt sports a 2.7 ERA, a 5-1 record, and has won five straight turns while never surrendering more than two earned in that stretch. Over his last two starts the 26-year-old owns an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nola, meanwhile, carries a 5-plus ERA; Martin noted his most recent success at Wrigley was aided by a stiff wind blowing in. The top of the Diamondbacks order has pounded right-handed pitching all season and Arizona’s bullpen numbers are stronger than Philadelphia’s. With both a matchup and pen edge, Martin likes the Snakes to cash as road dogs.

Peterson bet Under 9 (handicapped 8.7) with Brandon Pfaadt dealing and Aaron Nola overdue for better luck. Pfaadt has yielded one run or fewer in three of his last four and owns a 2.78 ERA with just 1.5 BB/9. Nola’s bloated 5.40 ERA disguises a 4.29 FIP and a career 3.26 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies lineup ranked only 23rd in HR/AB entering the series, further lowering offensive expectations.

Welsh declared it “Schwarberfest” and bet Kyle Schwarber to leave the yard against Merrill Kelly. Wind is projected to blow 12–14 mph out to right at Citizens Bank Park, a perfect boost for Schwarber’s extreme pull-fly-ball profile (54% FB, 46% pull). Kelly has given up seven of his nine homers to lefties this year and sports a sub-20% strikeout rate on the road. Schwarber has already taken Kelly deep twice in 14 career plate appearances and owns a 1.050 OPS against the right-hander. With weather, pitcher split, and historical success all lining up, Welsh expects at least one Schwarber bomb this weekend.

Collin Whitchurch played Jesus Luzardo over 1.5 walks, noting the left-hander’s control lapses (10.3% BB-rate) and the Diamondbacks’ patient, top-10 walk rate versus southpaws. Books are hanging the standard 1.5 line at regular juice even though market awareness of walk props is tightening elsewhere. Whitchurch prefers Luzardo to falter because Arizona forces deep counts with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker all sporting double-digit walk rates. He called it a classic volatility spot where Luzardo’s wipe-out slider misses bats but also misses the zone, making two free passes more likely than the price implies.

Jim Turvey sprinkled Corbin Carroll to record a triple at +2800 on DraftKings, a massive value gap compared to the +700 listed at FanDuel. Turvey reminded listeners that small differences in implied probability explode in long-shot markets. Carroll already has four triples this season (league leader) and posted 14 a year ago, leveraging elite 30-ft-per-second sprint speed. Citizens Bank Park ranks as a top-eight venue for left-handed triples, and Carroll will see multiple at-bats versus a Philadelphia bullpen loaded with righties after the initial left-left matchup against Jesus Luzardo. Turvey loves betting ceiling outcomes on players who “do the amazing often,” making a 28-1 ticket on baseball’s pre-eminent triples threat too tempting to pass.

Polzin flagged Trea Turner’s OVER 7.5 hitting fantasy score against Merrill Kelly. Turner owns Kelly to the tune of 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) with 6 RBI. Friday’s game carries an 8.5 run total and Turner typically occupies a premium lineup spot, giving him extra plate appearances. With both projection models and sportsbook lines showing slight value over PrizePicks, Polzin labeled Turner a high-floor anchor for Phillies stacks or single-prop action.

JD Bets backed Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs for Friday’s home matchup with Merrill Kelly. Turner owns a .417 career average against Kelly (5-for-12 with extra-base damage) and has been swinging it well lately, clearing the same 1.5 H+R+RBI line in four of his last six. JD emphasized that Kelly’s splits skew worse on the road and that Citizens Bank Park is one of the better hitter’s parks in the league. Combining Turner's recent form, his historical success against Kelly, and home-field bump, JD felt confident enough to fire on the over despite Philadelphia’s overall middling team numbers of late.

Joe Raineri called Philadelphia a bargain at –150 against Arizona. He trusts left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who owns a 1.73 ERA and 3.04 xFIP over 36⅓ innings, far more than Merrill Kelly and an injury-riddled Diamondbacks bullpen that Raineri labeled “a hot mess.” Arizona’s sticks have produced only 3.4 runs per game over their last seven and grade poorly versus southpaws, while the Phillies bring both a rested relief corps and the bats of Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber back home after a late Washington start. Because the Snakes’ only path is jumping Luzardo early, Raineri prefers the full-game Phillies moneyline, believing their bullpen edge seals it if the starters trade zeros.

Along with the moneyline lean, Data Skrive advised betting Over 9 runs in Phillies-Diamondbacks. Their projected score (Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4) lands exactly on nine, yet they still label the Over as the stronger side because of recent scoring trends and matchup context. The Phillies and their opponents have topped the total in 5 of the last 10, while Arizona has gone Over in 6 of its last 10. The two offenses combine for 8.6 runs per game on season averages (4.2 PHI, 4.4 ARI) and both bring plenty of pop: Kyle Schwarber sits fourth in MLB with nine homers, and Corbin Carroll already has nine long balls for Arizona. Citizens Bank Park amplifies power, especially for left-handed bats like Schwarber and Carroll. Neither bullpen has been lights-out (Phillies 3.13 ERA, Diamondbacks 3.88 ERA over the last 10), and first-pitch weather calls for mild temps that favor hitters. Given those factors, Data Skrive sees a path for either offense to tack on late and push the combined score past the posted 9.

Data Skrive recommended laying the -154 and taking the Phillies to win Friday night against Arizona. Their model shows Philadelphia claiming a 5-4 victory and assigns them a 52% win probability, but the write-up leans on several trend-based edges that make the juice palatable: (1) the Phillies have already been favored 23 times in 2025 and have cashed 13 of those tickets (56.5%); (2) in the more specific price pocket of -154 or shorter, Rob Thomson’s club is an elite 12-3 (80%); (3) Arizona has only been a +129 dog or longer once all season and did win, but they are still just 5-4 overall as underdogs; (4) projected starter Jesus Luzardo enters with better recent form (3.13 team ERA last 10 games) than Merrill Kelly (3.88 team ERA for Arizona’s staff). Add in Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions and Philadelphia’s lineup that owns nine Schwarber bombs and a .298 team-high average from Trea Turner, and Data Skrive believes the home side justifies favorite status.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Arizona on the money line despite being road dogs. Merrill Kelly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four straight starts and the D-backs have won 4 of his 6 outings. Against the current Phillies roster he has held hitters to a .236 average (27 K in 110 AB). Philadelphia sends “Loserdot,” who is in form (5 ER in last 31.1 IP), but the tout believes the underdog price outweighs that edge because Arizona’s offense is batting .250+ with 40 HR already. Kelly’s ability to neutralize lefties, plus Arizona’s 4-1 record in his last five as a road dog, make the Snakes the play.

The tout played the OVER, noting Arizona has hit the number in 3 of its last 5 and has done so in 3 of Kelly’s 5 starts despite his effectiveness because of bullpen volatility. The D-backs’ 40 homers and .250+ team average pair well with Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions. Philadelphia has cleared the total in 3 of its last 4, and each of Loserdot’s last three outings has finished over. With both lineups carrying power (Phils 27 HR) and warm May weather projected, Cash Out Sports Picks expects fireworks and recommends the over.

Bettor Mark is sidestepping the ‑150 Phillies moneyline by taking the DraftKings prop "Philadelphia to NOT bat in the 9th" at ‑105, a wager that cashes if the Phils are leading after 8.5 innings. He expects left-hander "Lazzardo" (his words) to move to 4-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA, and he trusts Philadelphia’s lineup to rebound at Citizens Bank Park after an ugly loss to Washington. Mark noted the Phillies are markedly better at home while Arizona must fly east following a grueling set with the Mets. That travel plus the Kelly vs Lazzardo pitching mismatch makes him confident the Phillies will be ahead late, eliminating the need for their final at-bat and giving bettors a cheaper way to back the favorite.

Peterson grabbed Under 9 runs because Jesus Luzardo has been lights-out through six starts (1.73 ERA, 2.00 FIP, only one HR in 36.1 IP). Merrill Kelly’s surface stats are skewed by one nine-run blow-up versus the Yankees, and he has allowed two or fewer in four straight outings. Kelly’s 4.41 ERA is backed by some red flags (3.3 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9), but Peterson still projects a low-scoring game with both pitchers capable of working deep. His model made the total 8.3, giving enough cushion to fire on the Under.

Kenny G said he would side with the Phillies at -160, but only for a small stake. He trusts starter Jesus Luzardo, who is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and has allowed just two unearned runs over his last two outings, to keep Arizona’s top-six offense in check. Merrill Kelly has settled down after his early-season Yankee disaster, yet the Diamondbacks still drag a 4.46 bullpen ERA that ranks 24th. Philadelphia’s own pen is shaky at 4.87, but Kenny thinks their lineup—seven or more runs in three of its last five—can bail them out. With the Phillies 11-5 at home and the D-backs scoring only four runs per game over the last week, he felt the juice was justified and preferred the moneyline to a totals play.

Lindquist flagged Bryce Harper’s home-run prop as his favorite in the D-backs–Phillies matchup, wanting +330 or better (he’s hoping for +375). Merrill Kelly is allowing a 30.9% fly-ball rate and an unsettling 11.3% barrel rate without compensating strikeouts, a recipe for disaster against Harper’s 48.8% hard-hit rate and ideal 15-degree average launch angle. With Philadelphia’s bullpen far from airtight, Lindquist sees multiple paths to a Harper jack and will fire once sportsbooks post a fat number.

Kirby is willing to scoop Ranger Suarez ahead of his scheduled Sunday activation, calling him a "serviceable" option who rarely hurts you. She expects his sinker-change combo to keep the ball on the ground (career 55% GB%) and predicts a low-3s ERA ceiling with a middling 20% K-rate. That profile, paired with Philadelphia’s strong bullpen and offense, makes him an ideal injury replacement or streaming SP5 in mixed leagues. Kirby stressed she is not chasing upside here—just safe innings at a time when injuries have thinned rotational depth league-wide.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking Jesus Luzardo under 2.5 earned runs allowed at ‑130 in Citizens Bank Park. He pointed to Luzardo’s sparkling 1.86 home ERA and 1.59 road ERA, noting the left-hander has held opponents to two or fewer runs in five of six outings. Luzardo’s 28.3% K-rate, 1.07 WHIP and 2.40 expected ERA underline how legit the form is. The handicap leans heavily on Arizona’s struggles versus southpaws: over the last three weeks the D-backs own the sixth-lowest wRC+ (62), seventh-lowest OBP, fifth-lowest walk rate and sixth-lowest ISO against lefties. Eight left-handed starters have faced them; six cashed this under, including Chris Sale and David Peterson combining for just three earned over 23 innings. Luzardo also dominates same-handed bats (.198 AVG, .278 SLG) and Arizona’s top of the order is lefty-heavy with Corbin Carroll and Pavin Smith. Toss in a tough travel spot for the Snakes and Steven prefers the prop to laying the pricey Phillies run line.

Romanelli advised fading Merrill Kelly and taking the Phillies on the money line. Kelly’s road ERA has crept above 5.00 while his walk rate has spiked—nine free passes over his last three starts—and Romanelli expects Philadelphia’s lineup, which smashes mistake fastballs, to capitalize. He’s not deterred by the Phillies’ early bullpen woes, noting the unit finished with a top-five ERA after a similarly rough start last year and still projects highly by WAR. With Jesus Luzardo’s swing-and-miss arsenal neutralizing Arizona’s left-handed bats and the Phillies’ defense markedly better than the Mets club that stifled the D-backs earlier in the week, Romanelli sees Philadelphia controlling both the matchup and the series.

Lonte Smith went after the total, playing Over 9 rather than a side. Despite Jesus Luzardo’s 1.4 ERA over his last five outings against San Francisco, Atlanta (twice) and the Dodgers, Smith noted Philadelphia’s offense is cooking—seven or more runs in three of its last four victories. Arizona has leaked runs, allowing seven-plus in five of its past seven while going 2-5. He expects the Phillies to handle the bulk of the scoring but believes the Diamondbacks can chip in enough to clear the number. If looking for an added angle, he’s comfortable with the Phillies run line at +140, but the over is his primary wager.

Scott Reichel felt the Phillies were overpriced at -160 with Jesus Luzardo on the mound and pegged the fair line closer to -135/-140. Merrill Kelly has surrendered fewer than three earned runs in three straight starts and consistently gets run support, while Arizona owns a respectable 9-6 road record. Reichel acknowledged Luzardo’s stellar 1.73 ERA but argued Arizona’s lineup and bullpen are strong enough to justify grabbing them at +135 or better, especially since Kelly has a 3-1 record despite the inflated 4.41 ERA. Bottom line: the number, not the matchup, drives his decision — he’s taking the D-backs whenever the dog price drifts too high.

Welsh encouraged listeners to go acquire Cristopher Sanchez now that he’s proven healthy. In his first start back from the forearm scare, Sanchez tossed five scoreless innings against a Nationals lineup that rarely strikes out, fanning six with a 37 % overall whiff rate. His changeup was the star, generating a ridiculous 64 % whiff rate, and he located the fastball in the zone all night. Welsh said the outing checked every box—efficiency, velocity, command and most importantly health—so if a league-mate is still nervous about the recent injury, pounce before the price rises.

Welsh said Justin Martinez’s fastball was down five mph and his splitter three mph Wednesday, calling the velo drop the clearest sign the rookie is headed to the IL. With AJ Puk shelved for at least three weeks and Martinez hurt, Welsh expects Kevin Ginkel to get the first crack at ninth-inning work, with Shelby Miller lurking as a secondary option. He advised speculating on Ginkel immediately in any league where saves are scarce, adding that Arizona’s offense is heating up, which could push Ginkel toward double-digit saves before the All-Star break.

Turner is 8-for-19 (.421) with a homer off Merrill Kelly and has a hit in nine of his last 13 games (stats do not include May 1). Those numbers led the tout to include Turner in his hit-parlay pool for May 2.