Ryan Wooden strongly recommended betting on Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run against the Rays, citing ideal hitting conditions at George M. Steinbrenner Field after hurricane damage forced the Rays out of Tropicana Field. Ozuna, hitting with a 1.065 OPS so far this season with three homers, including one in the same ballpark two days prior, should benefit from the nearly 80-degree weather and strong winds blowing outwards. Furthermore, Ozuna historically hits right-handers and left-handers equally well, meaning he's set up nicely regardless of Rays' bullpen matchups. Both FanDuel and BetMGM offer value at +360 odds.

Jason Fragomeni recommended betting the Rays moneyline (+105) against the Braves on Sunday, highlighting a significant pitching mismatch. Shane Baz has impressed to start the season with a 1-0 record, 1.38 ERA, and a strong recent outing against the Angels, pitching 7 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed and 6 strikeouts. Conversely, Braves' starter Chris Sale has struggled significantly early in the season, posting an 0-1 record and a problematic 6.75 ERA over 3 starts. Although Sale faced quality opponents (Phillies, Dodgers, Padres) in his first few games, Fragomeni emphasized that Sale has not looked sharp or comfortable on the mound, projecting that the Rays' offense (.269 average with 7 home runs in the past week) would exploit this weakness early in the game.

Kenny G highlighted value on the Tampa Bay Rays as slight home underdogs (+105) against the Braves, citing Shane Baz's excellent start (1.38 ERA, 16 strikeouts in two starts) and the weakness of opposing starter Chris Sale (poor season form thus far). Despite concerns over Tampa Bay's bullpen (4.53 ERA), he liked the Rays' starting pitching edge, particularly Baz's recent dominant outings. Kenny tempered enthusiasm slightly due to inconsistent Rays offense (22nd in runs), but believes the pitching mismatch offers sufficient betting appeal at positive odds.

Brad Francis advised betting the Braves money line against the Rays, primarily due to Tampa Bay's struggles, having lost their last six straight games when listed as the underdog versus National League opponents. Francis also noted Chris Sale starting for the Braves as further rationale that the Braves would likely secure a victory.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised backing the Braves on the money line, highlighting Chris Sale as a key factor. Despite an inconsistent start, Sale remains a top-tier pitcher and offers great betting value. They've pointed out that Atlanta's offense has started turning around after a painful 7-game losing streak to open the season, recently winning four of their past seven games with their bats finally showing signs of life. Meanwhile, the Rays' Shane Baz hasn't yet proven himself fully reliable despite a promising ERA of 1.38, and Tampa Bay has struggled offensively, scoring four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. With the ace going for Atlanta and their upward offensive momentum, betting the Braves offers solid value.

Chris Morgan recommended Shane Baz as a strong DFS pitching selection because of a red-hot start with a 1.38 ERA and impressive 11.08 K/9 through two appearances. Although Baz has historically battled injuries and saw strikeout rates dip last season, his current form appears elite. Also mentioned is that Baz faces an under-performing Atlanta lineup that's failed to reach the 50-run milestone, making this a favorable opportunity to capitalize on Baz's ceiling.

Kingpin favors Chris Sale today on the road against Tampa Bay, noting that Sale appears rejuvenated in his stint with Atlanta. He has posted a 3.00 ERA through his first two outings with strong strikeout numbers, facing a Tampa lineup that recently struggled (no-hit into the fifth inning yesterday). Rookie Shane Baz, the Rays' starter, has electric stuff but is coming off injury with limited MLB experience. Kingpin expects Sale's veteran presence and current form to hold the edge in today’s rubber match.

DS Betting recommended betting on the Atlanta Braves at home against Tampa Bay on April 12, citing Atlanta's strong pitching edge at Truist Park, where starters have combined for a 3.10 ERA, significantly lower than their overall average. Tampa Bay, though offensively potent, has struggled recently on the road against top-tier pitching, hitting just .208 with increased strikeout rates over their last 6 away games.

Kenny G advised strongly against backing the struggling Braves, especially against Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen (0.90 ERA in two good outings). He underscored Atlanta's terrible early-season issues offensively (28th in MLB runs scored) and the disappointing bullpen results (4.00 ERA). Kenny G emphasized Atlanta's road woes (winless on the season away from home, either 0-8 or 0-9) and lack of confidence in 22-year-old pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (0-2, 5.19 ERA). He suggested the Rays (-140) could offer safer value despite heavy juice because of Atlanta's combination of pitching and hitting problems.

Dave Garofolo recommended a run line bet of Braves +1.5 at -164 odds for the matchup between the Braves and Rays on April 12, 2025. Using advanced predictive modeling, Dimers identified a favorable 3.4% betting edge and a 65.5% likelihood of success. The recommendation suggests that this bet represents strong value given the probability and odds combination.

Erik Halterman emphasized that Sean Murphy is a priority pickup after returning from the IL with a rib injury that shouldn't linger. Murphy homered immediately upon return, signaling full health. Despite a poor 2023 campaign with just a .193 average and .636 OPS, Murphy's five-year track record of a .240 average and .778 OPS, including a peak OPS of .844, suggests last year was likely an anomaly fueled by a previous oblique injury. Considering he's just entering his age-30 season, there's optimism he rebounds significantly. Halterman recommends adding Murphy in all formats, especially in shallow one-catcher leagues.

Kyle Purviance highlighted taking AJ Smith-Shawver's strikeout total under, pointing to the Rays' batters' notable consistency at putting the ball in play and avoiding strikeouts altogether. He advises that, due to these matchup dynamics, Smith-Shawver should struggle to generate strikeouts at his usual rate.

Kyle Purviance emphasized betting the Braves as underdogs against the Rays, despite the Braves losing the previous game. He strongly believes the Rays lineup is weak offensively and that the Braves' previous loss was an anomaly rather than a reflection of the teams' actual strengths. Kyle thinks the Braves consistently bring great value as underdogs in this matchup.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommends backing Tampa Bay on the Money Line, citing a clear advantage in starting pitching consistency. Drew Rasmussen has been sharp for the Rays, allowing only five hits and one run through his first 10 innings of work. In contrast, Atlanta starter AJ Smith-Shawver has struggled early in his career, permitting 13 hits and five runs in less than nine innings so far. The Braves have provided zero run support in his starts, while also losing key offensive contributors and sitting tied for fewest wins in MLB. The Rays' recent form improvement also makes them the reliable pick in this matchup.

Sean Zerillo explained that the wind direction and strength at Steinbrenner Field, Tampa Bay, is highly influential on run totals, yet sportsbooks aren't adequately pricing it into totals yet. Zerillo cited Fangraphs research confirming that average wind speeds at Steinbrenner Field exceed those at even Wrigley Field, making it possibly the most wind-affected stadium in MLB. He mentioned earlier games where the wind significantly enhanced or reduced batted ball distances by as much as 60 feet, leading to improbable home runs or outs. Early in the season, particularly at night, the wind tends to blow outward offering a large advantage to hitters. Zerillo noted that totals still routinely open at around 8-8.5, not fully accounting for wind-induced variance, creating consistent value opportunities for bettors.

Joe Pisapia recommended confidently fading Rays pitcher Taj Bradley by betting the Braves team total over 4.5 runs (+money). Pisapia explained his betting strategy of targeting visiting offenses in Tampa's favorable hitting environment, underscored by recent performances of Braves hitters such as Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Bryan Reynolds showing promising signs of heating up. The favorable hitting scenario combined with Bradley’s matchup makes Atlanta a strong target to exceed their team total today.

Joe Pisapia advised taking Spencer Strider as a speculative Cy Young bet due to his current attractive price at +2200. Strider recently struck out 13 batters in his dominant minor league start and is expected back in the Braves' rotation early next week. Pisapia highlighted the betting strategy of grabbing Strider's long odds now and potentially using sportsbooks' cash-out options later when the market shortens significantly. He expects Strider's odds could easily shift dramatically down to around +250 if he strings together a few excellent starts, providing bettors a great profitable buyout opportunity even if Strider ultimately doesn't win.

Chris Welsh praised Spencer Schwellenbach's dominant pitching outing against the Phillies, emphasizing his Cy Young candidacy. Schwellenbach posted an exceptional line, lowering his ERA to 0.45, while his WHIP stands at 0.65 over 20 innings, with 19 strikeouts and only 3 walks. Welsh pointed out his elite command, especially with his slider and fastball, as clear evidence he has control of the game. With elite pitchers like Paul Skenes and Jacob deGrom being the benchmark, Schwellenbach has displayed similar poise and pitch execution, solidifying his Cy Young narrative. Welsh also noted his Cy Young betting odds improved significantly, estimating roughly 6-to-1 now from an earlier 9-to-1 mark, further validating Schwellenbach's impressive season trajectory and solidifying him as a high-value fantasy pitcher moving forward.

Guy Boston highlights value on the Atlanta Braves as a slight road underdog against Taj Bradley and the Rays. Despite Bradley historically being tough at home, Guy Boston isn't convinced by his performance early in the year compared to his normal splits, and notes Atlanta gaining momentum after recently taking two out of three games from the Phillies lineup that included Zach Wheeler. Betting the Braves at plus money thus provides a strong value opportunity.

Derek Farnsworth recommended fading Braves starter Bryce Elder in DFS due to concerning underlying numbers and unfavorable matchup. Elder carries an alarming 8.68 xERA with struggles generating strikeout upside (just 20% K rate). Facing Tampa's potent lineup, with hitters like Brandon Lowe showing large xwOBA splits (.487 vs RHP), Elder's downside is significantly amplified. The expected run total of 4.47 for the Rays further underscores the difficult task ahead, advising fantasy players to find safer alternatives.

Derek Farnsworth recommends stacking the Tampa Bay Rays hitters in DFS tournaments, as they draw a favorable matchup against Braves pitcher Bryce Elder. Elder has struggled badly against left-handed batters, allowing a massive .419 wOBA and holding a concerning 8.68 expected ERA (xERA). While Tampa's lineup boasts several left-handed bats with solid advanced metrics, including Brandon Lowe (.487 xwOBA, .445 xISO vs RHP), the Rays hitters collectively have a high projected run total of 4.47, further underlining their upside in DFS contests.

Dylan Rockford said the Braves should be favorites rather than slight underdogs against Tampa Bay, highlighting the significant offense issues of the Rays, who were notably shut down by the Angels pitching recently and are struggling consistently to score runs. Rockford preferred the Braves offense, noting recent strong offensive outings against Philadelphia and Miami, and suggested the wrong team seemed favored. He also favored the game total over eight runs, expecting the Braves to contribute offensively and Tampa Bay to improve somewhat from their single-run output against the Angels.

Kenny G likes Tampa Bay Rays starter Taj Bradley to bounce back after an inconsistent start to the season. Bradley was strong against Colorado but had issues against Texas in his last outing, allowing four earned runs and two homers. Despite these hiccups, Bradley has recorded seven strikeouts in each of his starts, indicating his stuff remains strong. Kenny G points out this matchup is ideal for Bradley as he's facing a Braves lineup that's not only struggling offensively (20th in majors in runs scored, injury issues with Ronald Acuna Jr.) but also dealing with fatigue from a difficult travel situation following a rain delay in Philadelphia. He sees value on Tampa Bay at -115 due to Bradley’s bounceback potential and the Braves’ negative situation.

Kenny G advises betting against the Atlanta Braves due to several significant situational and performance reasons. Atlanta will have to immediately travel from a rain-delay impacted game against the Phillies directly to Tampa Bay, which he expects will negatively impact their performance. They're already struggling, at just 2-9 this season and 0-7 on the road, with Ronald Acuna Jr. dealing with injuries. Additionally, Bryce Elder struggled in his first start, allowing three runs and two homers versus the Dodgers. Atlanta's bullpen has disappointed (4.50 ERA), and their offense ranks 20th in runs scored. Kenny G believes the Braves will remain exhausted and ineffective against a rested Rays team.

Drew Martin likes backing Rays pitcher Taj Bradley (24-year-old from Stone Mountain, Georgia) against his hometown team, the Braves. Highlighting the Rays' home-field advantage (their five wins this season have all come at home, specifically noting their minor-league ballpark environment favorable to their style of play), Drew emphasizes Bradley's elite fastball velocity (97-98 mph), solid finish last year, and strong underlying numbers this season despite allowing two home runs his last outing. Drew argues this is unlikely to repeat and notes that the Rays also possess the better overall lineup against right-handed pitching and a stronger bullpen. He suggests betting the Rays at the slight home favorite price (-110).

Data Skrive identified Brandon Lowe as an attractive betting option on hitting props. Lowe leads Tampa Bay in home runs (3), RBI (8), and batting average (.289 at the time) and carries a five-game hitting streak into the Braves matchup. During the streak, Lowe owns a .286 batting average with a home run and two RBI in those contests. Given his consistent recent production and leading team metrics, taking his total bases or hits over is a promising betting or DFS prop choice.

Data Skrive targeted Marcell Ozuna as a compelling hitting prop opportunity for his matchup against the Rays. Ozuna currently leads the Braves with a .316 batting average, two home runs, and seven RBI. He has hit safely in three straight games, batting well (.409) during his past five games, with two doubles, two homers, two walks, and five RBI. Given this trend of hot contact, Ozuna stands out as an optimal play for total bases or RBI props in the betting market.

Data Skrive highlighted the Atlanta Braves as strong value moneyline underdogs at +104 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite a slow start and losing all five games this season as underdogs, the Braves have a projected final score prediction in their favor at 5-4. Additionally, implied win probabilities give the Braves a near-even chance (49%) of winning. The Rays are marginally favored, yet the betting line pace implies confidence in a close and lower-scoring game (under 9 total runs projected). This situational betting perspective identifies current market odds as presenting actionable betting value on Atlanta.

According to Data Skrive's analysis, the Atlanta Braves (+102 moneyline) represent value as a slight underdog against the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite the Braves' slow 3-9 start compared to the Rays' 5-7 record, the computer model anticipates a low-scoring affair with total runs under nine, increasing the appeal of taking the Braves as a profitable underdog wager.

Betting analysis by Data Skrive supports a pick on the Washington Nationals (-124) as moneyline favorites over the Miami Marlins (+105). Both teams are relatively comparable record-wise with the Marlins (6-6) and Nationals (5-7). The model predicts an over-total (8 runs), signaling an anticipated bats-heavy contest ultimately favoring Washington.

Greg Peterson recommends playing the Rays moneyline (-110) and the under at 8.5 runs in their matchup with Atlanta. Peterson cites Rays starter Taj Bradley's high strikeout upside, with 11.5 K/9 despite a couple of rough outings, as a key advantage. The matchup especially favors Tampa considering Braves pitcher Bryce Elder's subpar performance since 2024 (6.54 ERA, 1.7 HR/9). The Braves' offense, averaging just 3.1 runs per game entering Thursday, further supports the under. Peterson handicapped Tampa at -138 and the total at 8.2, indicating good betting value.