Osborne played Toronto –0.5 on the first-five-innings run line (–120) against Tampa Bay. Over the past two weeks the Blue Jays rank 1st in OPS versus right-handed pitching, while the Rays sit 25th. Kevin Gausman owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre compared with a 5.27 mark on the road, and Jays hitters carry an .807 OPS in 49 career at-bats versus Tampa starter Zack Littell. Tampa’s bats have also slumped away from Tropicana Field (24th in road OPS over the last month). Osborne expects Toronto’s right-hand heavy lineup to give Gausman early support and cash the F5 run-line ticket before bullpens enter.

Guy Boston recommended playing Chandler Simpson under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at minus-105 or better. The handicap keys on Kevin Gausman’s pitch mix—four-seam, splitter and occasional slider—three offerings Simpson has struggled with at every minor-league stop. Gausman is limiting left-handers to a .190 batting average this season and sports a 31 % strikeout rate against them. Boston added that Gausman’s splitter generates a 37 % whiff rate, a nightmare for a contact-oriented rookie like Simpson. Because books opened the prop as high as –115, Boston sees value only if the number is –105 to –110; anything worse than –115 erodes the edge in his model.

Gianni the Greek recommended laying a half-run with the Blue Jays in the first five innings. He pointed out that Kevin Gausman owns three quality starts in three home outings this season, while Tampa starter Aaron Luttrell sports a 5.2 FIP that ranks in the bottom 10 among qualified pitchers. Gianni expects Gausman’s strike-throwing and splitter usage to neutralize Tampa’s left-handed pop, giving Toronto an edge in the first half before bullpens become a factor.

Kody Malstrom recommended betting Under 0.5 runs in the first inning at -122 for Rays-Blue Jays. He highlighted Kevin Gausman’s return to form after last year’s shoulder woes: 3.28 FIP, 0.971 WHIP and fewer than one hit allowed per inning. Toronto’s defense helps, ranking top-15 in both Defensive Efficiency and Fielding Percentage. Tampa’s attack is a perfect matchup, sitting below league average in Contact Rate and OBP while Junior Caminero, Brandon Lowe and Chandler Simpson all sport sub-.750 OPS marks atop the order. Malstrom added that Zack Littell can hold up his end because the Jays’ lineup is similarly toothless—outside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., no top-of-order bat owns an OPS above .750 and the club languishes near the bottom in runs and RBIs. With the Rays defense ranking 4th in Defensive Efficiency to bail out Littell, he expects another NRFI cash.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the full-game UNDER. Both starters have recent form: Littell has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last three outings, while Gausman has limited six of eight opponents to three earned or fewer. Day-game splits show each club averaging just 3.6 runs. Neither offense has cracked 170 total runs through 41 games and both sit bottom-four in AL home runs. The tout emphasized familiarity within the division and Gausman’s home splits as additional reasons to project a tight contest, calling the earlier 20-run explosion an extreme outlier.

The computer shows Toronto 5-4, recommending the Jays at ‑170 and Over 8 runs. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout stuff (10.5 K/9) is offset by a 1.36 HR/9 figure, while Rays starter Zack Littell brings a 4.40 ERA and 43% hard-hit rate. Both bullpens enter on short rest: Toronto used its top three relievers in consecutive games, and Tampa owns a 4.82 pen ERA in May. Rogers Centre has played 11% above league average for homers this season, and the model bakes in warm afternoon dome conditions to get the Over home 54% of the time. It gives Toronto a 63% chance to win outright.

Kenny G saw value grabbing Tampa Bay at +140 in Toronto. He pointed to Zach Littell’s quiet breakout—four quality outings in his last five, including seven-inning, two-run ball at Yankee Stadium and six strong frames versus Milwaukee. Littell’s ascendance dovetails with a Rays bullpen that sits top-10 with a 3.46 ERA, giving Tampa a full-game pitching edge over Kevin Gausman plus a middling Blue Jays relief corps (4.04 ERA). Kenny admitted the Rays’ bats have been erratic (23rd in runs) but stressed they are still league-average in average and OBP, suggesting upside. Meanwhile, Gausman has looked mortal, posting clunkers against New York and Houston and allowing seven hits in just 5.1 innings his last start. Toronto’s lineup is heating up, yet Kenny argued Littell’s current command profile is exactly what can cool them down. With Tampa 8-6 on the road and Toronto only 12-9 at home, he believes the +140 price tag underrates a Rays club that still features a better bullpen and a starter in better form; he even teased the Rays as a potential Dog of the Day on the short slate.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Toronto Blue Jays on the money line, leaning heavily on Kevin Gausman’s dominance at Rogers Centre. Gausman is 2-0 in three home starts with a microscopic 2.00 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 18 innings, and a .161 opponent batting average. The tout argued Tampa Bay’s lineup lacks consistent power, ranking middle-of-the-pack in AL scoring and sitting bottom-four in home runs. Zach Littell’s road profile (4.32 ERA, five homers allowed, only nine strikeouts in 25 IP) gives Toronto a clear pitching edge. With Bo Bichette getting on base at a .380 clip over the past two weeks and the Jays’ offense showing recent upticks, the host club was deemed superior across pitching, lineup momentum, and park familiarity.

Lindquist recommended a quarter-unit play on Daulton Varsho to homer at anything longer than +355 against Tampa Bay right-hander Zack Littell. Varsho carries a 57.1 % hard-hit rate, a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, and a 23-degree launch angle—an ideal power profile. Littell has already surrendered four homers to lefties in only 21 IP this season and six total long balls while sporting a 1.14 WHIP. Lindquist called the matchup “pure lefty power” and expects the Rogers Centre roof closed, enhancing carry. The market moved from +420 to +370 on similar spots Wednesday, so he advises locking it in early.

Daulton Varsho owns 5 homers in just 10 games since returning, a scorching 40% HR-per-game pace. FanDuel lists him at +400 (implied 20.0%) to leave the yard against Tampa Bay on May 15. Even acknowledging the small sample, the current rate doubles the break-even threshold, offering sizeable theoretical value for bettors willing to ride Varsho’s power surge.

JD Bets targeted the game total, calling the over 8 runs a strong play. Zach Littell (4.40 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (3.97 ERA) have combined for more than 8.0 earned runs per nine this season, yet bookmakers opened the total at only eight. Toronto owns a top-5 offense and Tampa’s bats have begun to heat up after a slow April. With two hittable starters, an improving Rays lineup, and the Blue Jays’ power in their hitter-friendly park, JD expects plenty of scoring and repeated, ‘Over eight. Over eight.’

Martin recommended Toronto –1 at –115, citing Kevin Gausman’s stark home/road split: a 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre versus 5-plus on the road. He expects another strong outing against a Rays lineup he says has "cooled off" recently. Tampa starter Zack Littell has struggled in this park; his previous Toronto appearance lasted just 1.1 innings with three earned runs and more walks than strikeouts. Littell owns only 30 strikeouts in 47 innings overall. Martin believes the Jays own edges with the better starter, deeper lineup, and superior bullpen, but avoids a full 1.5-run line because the home club loses its final at-bat when leading.

Soni pegged Guerrero as an enticing +400 home-run play. Though the first baseman hasn’t erupted yet in 2025, he sports a .291 average, 93.0 mph average exit velocity, and 39.8 % hard-hit rate—signals the big fly is coming. Facing Rays starter Zack Littell, who lacks overpowering stuff, Soni views the long odds as a buy-low entry on Guerrero’s latent power.

Guy Boston circled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (−120) as his favorite way to attack Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot relies on a four-seam/change/slider mix for 82 % of his pitches, and Guerrero grades out plus vs all three offerings on Boston’s dashboard, posting a .315 AVG and .560 SLG against that exact mix this season. Pepiot’s fly-ball tendencies play into Vlad’s pull-side power in the dome, and Boston added that Toronto’s lineup construction should guarantee RBI chances with Bichette and Horwitz setting the table. Even though he leans to Tampa on the moneyline, Boston views Vlad’s prop as insulated from game result and expects at least a two-stat night in a lower-scoring environment.

Bryan Power laid the –145 (and warned it may close north of –160) on Toronto’s moneyline, citing a decisive starter mismatch. Chris Bassitt owns a 3.17 expected ERA and 3.42 FIP, numbers that Power believes better reflect his form than the recent surface runs allowed. Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot sits at a 4.43 xERA and 4.98 FIP, giving Toronto a full run of projected pitching advantage. While both bullpens blew up in Tuesday’s 11-9 circus, Power expects Bassitt to hand the Jays enough of a cushion that their shaky relief corps won’t matter. He views the line movement toward Toronto as further confirmation the pitching gap is being priced in.

Metler loves Brandon Lowe to leave the yard at +575 against Chris Bassitt. Lowe owns video-game BvP numbers versus Bassitt—5-for-11 with three homers. He just produced two hits and a walk in Toronto last night, signaling good visual on the ball in Rogers Centre. Bassitt has coughed up at least two homers in each of his last three outings (six total) and is getting tagged harder by left-handed hitters. Projection models place Lowe near +400, making +575 one of Metler’s favorite dinger prices of the season.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Tampa Bay’s money line, noting the Rays have won 5-of-6 against Toronto and 7-of-8 on the road. Ryan Pepiot owns a 3.86 ERA but has allowed only four earned runs over his last 16.1 IP, while Chris Bassitt has surrendered 15 ER and six homers in his last four starts. Tampa also holds edges in stolen-base aggression (47 SB vs 27) and bullpen ERA (3.23 vs 3.87), tilting the matchup toward the visitors.

Guy Boston recommended Travis Jankowski to record at least one strikeout (-145 DraftKings). The Rays outfielder has fanned in 7 of his last 10 games and in six of the last seven, averaging 0.8 Ks over that span. Season-long, he has exceeded the mark in 9 of 16 appearances (56%). The underlying matchup looks even better: Jankowski owns a 23.8% strikeout rate overall that bumps to 24.3% against right-handed pitching, while Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt strikes out 26% of the left-handed hitters he faces. Boston trusts those converging K-rates, along with last night’s strikeout versus Toronto, to push the over again.

Martin played Over 8 in Rays-Blue Jays because both starters are trending the wrong way and Rogers Centre historically boosts offense. Chris Bassitt has surrendered 28 hits and 15 earned runs in his last four starts, allowing multi-homer games in each of the past three outings. Ryan Pepiot has a 7-to-6 K/BB mark in his last three appearances, sports a 5.00 FIP, and sits at just 2-4 on the season. Martin expects Tampa’s bats to take advantage of Bassitt’s elevated home-run rate while Toronto should score enough against Pepiot to push the combined total past eight. He noted that if the game is 4-4 entering the ninth, bettors still cash because eight is a push number.

Rockford bet Over 8 (projected 8.4) as the total ticked down to 7.5 in some shops. Toronto has scored 6-plus in four of five, cashing the over in all five, and Chris Bassitt’s home splits are better but still allow traffic. Despite being high on Ryan Pepiot early in the year, Rockford now calls the right-hander too inconsistent and wants no part of him in Rogers Centre against a hot Blue Jays lineup. With Tampa’s pitching depth shaky and both clubs capable of crooked numbers, he prefers the over to a side but would lean Toronto if forced.

Bamford grabbed Tampa Bay at +120, calling the matchup a coin-flip. Ryan Pepiot’s road ERA sits at 2.61 and he rarely implodes, whereas Chris Bassitt has surrendered 4, 3, 4, and 2 earned runs over his last four and the Blue Jays are a miserable 1-7 in his starts this season. With the Rays playing better than .500 ball away from the Trop and the Jays laying chalk solely on name recognition, Bamford believes the underdog has to be the play at anything above even money.

Kenny G grabbed Tampa Bay at +120, arguing the market is still pricing the Blue Jays like last year’s contender. He pointed out Ryan Pepiot has quietly logged two gems in his last three outings – one-run performances against the Phillies and Yankees – despite facing a brutal five-game gauntlet (PHI, NYY twice, SDP, BOS). Toronto’s lineup is anything but brutal: 22nd in runs and 23rd in slugging, and they just coughed up a ninth-inning grand slam. Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, owns a 5.89 ERA over his last four starts and struggled even against the light-hitting Angels. Kenny also prefers Tampa’s relief corps (3.51 bullpen ERA, 10th) to Toronto’s shaky pen (4.13, bottom half). With the Rays already 7-5 on the road and the Jays 11-8 but 11-8 to the over at home – a sign their pitching is carrying extra stress – Kenny labeled the Rays his favorite underdog of the slate.

Donaldson wagered one unit on an Anthony Santander home run and three units on over 1.5 H+R+RBI. He called Santander’s recent slump misleading, highlighting several foul rockets and underlying metrics that point to an imminent power surge. Tuesday’s game featured multiple 100-mph fouls, convincing Rob that the timing is a fraction off and the breakout is coming—especially against Ryan Pepiot’s fastball-heavy arsenal, which lines up with Santander’s pull-side power.

After blowing Tuesday’s game late, Donaldson is backing Toronto’s moneyline for two units. He expects the Jays’ lineup to hit Ryan Pepiot again and trusts veteran Chris Bassitt to deliver one of his "good" outings (7 IP, 0 ER upside) in a spot the clubhouse will treat as urgent. The emotional swing of Tuesday’s collapse plus Bassitt’s boom-or-bust profile creates what Rob calls a classic bounce-back angle.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Chris Bassitt’s home/road splits and Tampa Bay’s swing-and-miss tendencies as the perfect recipe for an OVER on Bassitt’s strikeout prop. The Rays own the 2nd-highest K-rate against right-handers (27%) and will be without leadoff man Yandy Diaz due to passport issues, further elevating punch-out potential. Bassitt has 49 strikeouts in 45.2 innings and his K-rate jumps from 22.2% on the road to 30.0% at Rogers Centre. Recent game logs show the ceiling (10-K outing two starts back) even when the floor can be modest. The tout expects 6-8 Ks and suggested bettors take the standard line of 5.5 and consider an escalator to 7+ at plus-money.

B Wade is again backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to eclipse 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Guerrero has cashed this prop in 66 % of games overall, 80 % of his last 10, and 70 % of his last 20. He faces Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot (3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), whom Wade labeled a league-average arm. Even though Guerrero’s .273 average versus righties is slightly below his total average, Wade trusts the recent consistency and sees plus-money value in the line.

Pisapia laid –126 on the Blue Jays because Jose Berrios has the form edge while Shane Baz is scuffling. Baz owns a 4.93 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across his last seven starts (38 IP) and his command has wavered, prompting Pisapia to say he’ll "keep attacking Baz until he turns it around." With Berrios working deeper into games and Toronto’s bullpen rested, Pisapia expects the Jays to control the matchup; he even suggested adding the Toronto team-total over for extra exposure.

Bettor Mark’s final official play is Toronto -125 on the moneyline. Although he admitted he’s "not the biggest Jose Berrios fan," his power rankings and matchup metrics still favor the Blue Jays at home. Tampa Bay enters 18-22, and Mark expects a "little dud" from their offense traveling north to face Berrios. Meanwhile, Shane Baz is still ramping up, giving Toronto’s bats an edge. With conference travel putting him in Toronto, Mark is happy to back the Blue Jays at what he considers a fair price.

Martin grabbed Tampa Bay +110, calling it a "wrong-team favorite." He pointed to Jose Berrios’s five-walk game and a two-mph dip in fastball velocity, a combination he says often precedes an IL stint. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays rank bottom-10 versus right-handed pitching, and high-velocity arms have given them trouble—exactly what 97-98 mph Shane Baz brings. Baz blanked San Diego for seven innings his last road start and has allowed only two earned runs over 12 career innings against Toronto. The Rays also own the better bullpen and profile stronger against right-handed pitching. With Toronto merely 4-0 in its last four but potentially vulnerable, Martin likes the Rays to steal one north of the border.

Lonte Smith called Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a live home-run prop for Tuesday’s Rays-Jays clash. Guerrero owns multi-hit games in two of his last four starts and has not left the yard since May 1, giving what Smith calls a "due" narrative. The real catalyst is Shane Baz: a 5.9 BB/9, eight-plus hits allowed in each of his last two outings, and five or more earned runs surrendered in two of his past three. Baz’s low strikeout rate means contact, and contact is exactly what Toronto has been producing while averaging six-plus runs over its last four. With Guerrero’s 51% hard-hit rate against righties and Baz struggling to miss barrels, Smith expects Vladdy to leave the yard and likes any price of +400 or better.

Malcolm Bamford is willing to lay the short number with Toronto, citing divergent form from the two starters and the Jays’ home/road split. Shane Baz looks lost, coming off back-to-back shellings of six and seven earned runs and walking five Yankees in his most recent turn. By contrast, Jose Berrios has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight and is flashing his old swing-and-miss stuff with 17 strikeouts over that span. Bamford added that Toronto is 18-10 at Rogers Centre while Tampa is averaging just three runs per game over its last ten. The Rays had a brief hot stretch a week ago but have generally scuffled to string together offense. With the pitching edge and the better lineup in its preferred venue, Bamford thinks –125 is a bargain before the market adjusts to Baz’s struggles.

Lonte Smith zeroed in on Toronto’s team-total over (projected 4.5 runs) rather than a side in the Rays-Jays encounter. Toronto’s offense has erupted for six-plus runs in four straight, batting .289 with a .373 OBP during a sweep of Seattle. Smith believes that momentum carries into Tuesday against struggling right-hander Shane Baz, who has been torched for 13 earned over his last two (vs Philadelphia and Kansas City) and is issuing 5.9 BB/9 on the season. Baz’s fastball command woes should play right into a Jays lineup that is seeing 4.1 pitches per plate appearance and ranks fourth in hard-hit rate over the last ten days. Even if Tampa opts for a bullpen game, Smith is unimpressed—Rays relievers own a 4.71 ERA in May. With Jose Berrios working deep and holding Tampa to three runs or fewer in four straight, Smith expects plenty of Toronto plate appearances and likes their bats to do the heavy lifting.

Lindquist is allocating a quarter unit to Jonathan Aranda’s home-run prop (anything +325 or better) Tuesday inside the Rogers Centre dome. Jose Berrios remains his favorite right-handed arm to attack: the former Twin is allowing a 464 expected slugging, 350 xwOBA and a gaudy 1.74 WHIP to left-handed bats this season after surrendering 18 homers to that side a year ago. Aranda brings the perfect profile to exploit it—60% hard-hit rate and a .557 expected slugging since his call-up—and the controlled indoor environment eliminates weather volatility. Lindquist classifies this as a standard quarter-unit HR dart he fires whenever he sees a vulnerable split like Berrios versus a lefty with Aranda’s batted-ball juice.

Kenny G laid the modest –125 with Toronto, citing two major edges. First, Shane Baz owns a 4.93 ERA and has been rocked in consecutive outings versus Philadelphia and Kansas City; Kenny worries something is physically wrong. Second, the Blue Jays’ sticks have finally awakened, plating 9-6-6-8 during a four-game sweep of Seattle. Toronto sits 11th in batting average and 14th in OBP, numbers he thinks better reflect their true talent than the 22nd-ranked run total. Jose Berrios has delivered three straight quality outings and, despite five walks against the Angels, still sports a 3.86 ERA. Tampa’s bullpen is elite (3.23 ERA), but the Rays offence is 23rd in runs and 25th in slugging, giving Kenny confidence the Jays can race to an early lead and let an average pen bring it home.

Johnny Venezia urged managers to grab Jonathan Aranda before the rest of the league catches up. Despite being available in half of Yahoo leagues, Aranda is slashing .342/.395/.586 with five home runs and a .981 OPS on the year. The numbers are even louder in May—he is batting .481 with a .425 BABIP, a 185 wRC+, and crushing the ball with a 58.8 percent hard-hit rate. Venezia called Aranda the one constant in a Rays lineup searching for reliable production, mentioning speedster Chandler Simpson and phenom Junior Caminero as comparisons but highlighting Aranda’s steadiness. Given the combination of multi-position eligibility, elite contact, and power surge, Venezia labeled him a potential difference-maker for fantasy rosters and said managers “should definitely not wait” to add him.

The tout listed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. among Tuesday’s best batter props. Guerrero is 4-for-8 (.500) lifetime off Shane Baz and has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 13 contests. With both a strong BvP track record and a red-hot bat, It's The Final Round recommends backing Guerrero to record a hit or clear his total-bases number.

B Wade said Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a clear over on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at roughly –119. Wade noted Guerrero has cashed this number in 6 of his last 7, 10 of his last 12, and 14 of his last 20, giving him a 70% season-long hit rate and 80% over the last 10. Guerrero faces Shane Baz, against whom he is 4-for-8 (.500). Wade also pointed out that Guerrero’s home splits are even stronger—he has hit the mark in 7 of his last 8 and 9 of his last 11 at Rogers Centre. Books are implying only a 55% probability; Wade’s model pegs the true chance at 75-80%, creating the positive expected value he wants to attack.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game UNDER. The breakdown: both offenses are scuffling—Tampa sits 25th in slugging, 19th in walk rate, and Toronto ranks 27th in HR rate and 21st in walks. Berrios’ recent dominance and the Rays’ inconsistent sticks point to limited crooked numbers, while Baz’s historical success against Toronto should keep the Jays from exploding. Unders have cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these clubs. With two starters capable of six decent frames and neither lineup showing much punch, the tout projects a tight, 4–3 type outcome that stays below the posted total.

Eric Pathi said the best way to attack Tuesday’s opener is to take Tampa Bay at roughly +120 on the money-line. His logic follows his long-time “fade the iced streak” angle: Toronto just had a travel day that halted a four-game winning run and now re-opens at home as a favorite, a classic let-down spot in his model. Pathi noted that bettors historically profit by backing the underdog in this situation because the market routinely over-prices the hot club once the streak is interrupted by travel. The pitching matchup of Shane Baz versus Jose Berrios does not sway him—he believes the situational edge outweighs any individual arm metrics. Bottom line: back the Rays and the plus-money because the Jays’ momentum is likely to cool in the first game of a new series.

B Wade targeted Jonathan Aranda over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Aranda is batting .342 on the season and .378 against right-handers, and he annihilates Tuesday’s projected starter Jose Berrios: 4-for-8 with TWO home runs lifetime. He has cleared the 1.5 combo mark in 5 of his last 6 outings and appears to be heating back up after a mid-season lull. Wade likes the combination of elite platoon splits, demonstrated power versus Berrios, and recent form to push Aranda past the number again.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Blue Jays money-line for Tuesday’s opener, laying out several reasons. Toronto rides a four-game win streak and just swept Seattle, while Tampa has lost four of six. The host cited Shane Baz’s brutal form – 13 earned runs over his last three outings – plus a Rays bullpen that has been shaky all month. On the other side Jose Berrios has surrendered only four runs across his last three starts and has already held Tampa to four total runs in his two most recent meetings. Toronto’s lineup owns the better wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and is finally showing power in Rogers Centre. With Berrios’ 2.25 ERA at home and Tampa ranking 25th in slugging and striking out 23 % of the time, the tout sees clear value in Toronto to grab the series opener.