Guy Boston recommended betting the OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for TJ Friedl at ‑110 on BetMGM. He noted Friedl has topped this line in 6 of his last 10 with a 2.6 average over that span and owns a 64 % season hit rate (14‑for‑22). Friedl has torched the Marlins historically, clearing in 5 of the past 6 meetings (83 %, 3.67 HRRBI per game) and has exceeded the mark in 4 of his last 5 road starts (3.2 average). The left‑hander is batting .300 with a 103.7 wRC+ versus right‑handers and faces Sandy Alcantara, who is struggling badly against lefties (12.30 ERA, .267 AVG, 2.2 HR/9, .361 wOBA; overall 7.27 ERA). All of that data led Guy Boston to call Friedl a strong plus matchup in Thursday’s early matinee.

Purviance labeled the Reds a "live dog" at +110 with Brady Singer on the mound opposite Sandy Alcantara. While conceding Alcantara is the superior arm, he noted Singer’s strong recent form and the Marlins’ light‑hitting lineup keep the matchup closer than the price suggests. Brian Howard added that Miami’s offense is prone to strikeouts and Cincinnati is overdue for positive regression after fanning 75 times in two games. Purviance plans to dig deeper before first pitch but leans to the Reds moneyline, arguing the plus money offsets the risk of their boom‑or‑bust offense.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive‑analytics model sees solid value on Under 8.5 runs in Wednesday’s 1:10 PM ET Reds–Marlins game. After thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, the model assigns the Under a 56.4% hit rate and a 5.9% edge against the posted −102 price at BetMGM. Bevilacqua noted that all model edges above 5% are flagged as +EV and that the day game’s roof‑closed setting in Miami historically suppresses run environment, reinforcing the Under call.

Despite Sandy Alcantara’s ugly 7.27 ERA, Kingpin Staff backed Miami on the moneyline, citing underlying metrics: a 96 mph average fastball and 27% CSW that mirror his 2022 Cy Young campaign. LoanDepot Park suppresses homers (0.79 HR factor), and Brady Singer’s 4.35 xERA suggests regression against a Marlins lineup that has scored in late‑inning bursts all series. Miami’s bullpen (3.21 ERA) gives them a back‑end edge, and the Fish are riding a three‑game win streak.

Kingpin Staff played Luis Arraez over 1.5 total bases. The reigning batting champ owns a .356 career average versus right‑handers and whiffs only 5% of the time. Brady Singer’s heavy sinker has been tattooed for a .302 expected average, and Arraez sees that pitch 48% of the time in his lead‑off spot. Two singles or one gapper would cash in the spacious alleys of Miami.

Peterson fired on Cincinnati +112 after hanging a personal number of -126. He thinks Brady Singer’s form—3.80 ERA, 3.27 FIP, better than 10 K/9 with only two homers allowed in 21.1 innings—far outclasses Sandy Alcantara, who sports a 7.27 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 across his four starts. The handicap is reinforced by a Reds offense scoring 5.8 runs per game on the road, second‑best in MLB, whereas Miami remains bottom‑five in most categories. With both the mound and lineup checkmarks on Cincinnati, Peterson called the Reds undervalued dogs.

In addition to liking the total, Kenny G advised a small stake on the Marlins at +105. His logic starts with MLB’s lopsided home/road splits—only five clubs have a winning road record, while 21 boast winning marks at home, a trend he is actively shading toward. Miami fits that profile at 7‑7 in loanDepot Park versus Cincinnati’s 5‑6 road mark. Pitching matchup also favors the Fish: Martinez has been tagged for 14 earned in his last two starts and the Reds have lost all four of his appearances. While Cabrera has struggled, Kenny expects improvement against a Reds lineup he calls “over‑inflated by that 24‑run Baltimore game” and points out Miami’s offense is top‑10 in both average and on‑base rate. Given the plus‑money price, the stronger home trend, and Cincinnati’s unreliable starter, Kenny labeled the Marlins “a lean I can actually play if you need a side.”

Kenny G targeted the Reds‑Marlins total, recommending Over 8.5. He highlighted how both starters are imploding: Nick Martinez is 0‑3 with a 6.00 ERA and has surrendered seven earned in back‑to‑back outings, while Edward Cabrera owns a 6.52 ERA and labored through just four innings in his previous start. Neither bullpen inspires confidence—Miami’s relief corps sits at 4.47 ERA, firmly bottom‑half, and Cincinnati’s numbers are buoyed by a 24‑run outlier game that skews their season stats. Offenses are more potent than public perception: the Reds are still 4th in runs (albeit inflated) and Miami ranks 3rd in batting average (.260) and 9th in OBP. Recent form backs a shoot‑out, with the Marlins plating 6‑7‑10‑2‑4 runs their last five and the Reds 12‑10‑1 to the over on the year. Add in loanDepot Park’s roof‑closed hitting conditions and Kenny concluded, “We love the over in this one as well.”

Eric Lindquist said Edward Cabrera’s high‑end strikeout ceiling makes his alt‑over ladders attractive against Cincinnati. Cabrera’s rebuilt mix has produced whiffs while cutting hard contact, and Lindquist noted the Reds just fanned double‑digit times versus Max Meyer the night before. Because Cabrera is a boom‑bust arm who often either spikes 7–9 Ks or melts down, Lindquist suggested a smaller, 0.25‑unit stab at 8‑ or 9‑plus strikeouts instead of the standard line, anticipating books will shade his base prop upward after Cincinnati’s most recent whiff fest.

Xavier Edwards is 2‑for‑5 (.400) against the listed Martinez and has reached safely in 16 of 20 games. The tout views him as a sneaky single‑hit add in bigger parlays.

Garofolo highlighted Marlins moneyline at +114 as another playable edge. The site’s machine‑learning engine gives Miami a 49% win probability, versus 46.7% implied odds, creating a 2.3% positive expected value. He framed it as a sprinkle opportunity for bettors preferring to chase plus money rather than the safer run line.

Garofolo relayed that the Dimers model likes Under 8.5 runs at -115 in Reds–Marlins. Simulations spit out a 55.8% hit rate, translating to a 2.3% expected value edge. With both offenses projected below league‑average run expectancy in the humid Miami park, the model expects pitchers to keep scoring in check.

Dave Garofolo said Dimers’ predictive analytics model fired on Marlins +1.5 at -144. After thousands of Monte Carlo‑style simulations, the model gives Miami a 62.8% chance to cover, a 3.8% edge over the implied 59.0% break‑even line. Garofolo noted the pick is one of Tuesday’s highest‑rated edges on the site, enough to warrant run‑line exposure despite laying juice.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed Cincinnati on the money line, noting that Nick Martinez tends to work out kinks against Miami while Edward Cabrera has been torched by the Reds—four homers allowed in 3‑plus innings the last time he saw them. The Reds just erupted for their biggest offensive output since 1999, sit fourth in MLB at 5.32 runs per game, and average 6.1 runs on the road. Miami’s bats rank merely 12th and their bullpen repeatedly falters late. With Cabrera in poor form and the Marlins lacking punch, the tout sees value in the surging Cincinnati lineup.

The tout projected a high‑scoring night, backing the OVER based on both clubs’ early‑season profiles. Cincinnati games are averaging 9.18 total runs overall and 10.2 on the road, with the over cashing in 11 of 22 contests. Miami has exceeded the total in 14 of 21 games and sees a 10‑run combined average at LoanDepot Park. With Martinez and Cabrera sporting rough 2025 form and the Reds/Marlins both ranking top‑half in scoring, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another double‑digit tally.

Drew Martin said the plus‑110 price on Miami is too generous given the starting‐pitching edge. Edward Cabrera amps his heater to 100 mph and has punched out 11 hitters in just 9 innings through his first two starts. Martin acknowledged Cabrera’s five‑earned‑run stumble last time out but argued the market is over‑reacting. Opposite him is 34‑year‑old Nick Martinez, lugging a 6‑plus ERA and 23 hits allowed in 21 frames. Martin also noted Miami’s offense just hung a crooked number on Cincinnati in Monday’s win and expects another productive night in the pitcher‑friendly park. He advised listing Cabrera and grabbing the Marlins as short home dogs.

Eric Pathy said to back the Miami Marlins on the moneyline at roughly +120 for the April 22, 2025 matchup versus the Cincinnati Reds. Pathy explained that Miami, who was leading the current game 3‑0 as a home dog, is an ideal 'chase the dog at home' situation for the following day. He trusts Edward Cabrera to out‑duel Cincinnati rookie Nick Spartinas and thinks the market is overreacting by hanging plus money on the better arm in a friendly park. Pathy stressed that the run‑line (+1.5) carries a steep -160 price, making the straight moneyline far superior from a value standpoint. The recommendation fits his long‑term bankroll philosophy of targeting mis‑priced home underdogs rather than searching for a one‑off get‑out game.

Scott Reichel singled out Elly De La Cruz for a home‑run ticket against Edward Cabrera. Cabrera has coughed up a homer in each of his first two outings and is allowing a .280 average to left‑handed bats, the side Elly will hit from. Reichel noted Cabrera’s hard‑contact rate north of 41 % and a career‑long battle with walks that can force him to groove fastballs. De La Cruz already took Dean Kremer deep yesterday and owns elite barrel metrics (18 % barrel rate, 111 mph max EV). With loanDepot Park’s roof likely open and Cabrera’s command still shaky, Reichel expects one mistake to end up in the right‑field seats and likes Elly at anything 4‑1 or better.

Scott Reichel leaned to Miami on the moneyline because the pitching matchup is essentially a wash yet the Fish are catching plus money at home. He reminded listeners that Nick Martinez has coughed up exactly four earned runs in four straight starts (road ERA north of 7.00) while Edward Cabrera has struggled too, but Martinez’s inability to miss bats makes him the more fade‑worthy arm. With Cabrera’s issues holding runners leading to a league‑high six steals allowed in just two outings, Reichel expects several free bases for Cincinnati but still views the overall run environment as high. In a game where both starters project poorly and the bullpens are equally shaky, he prefers grabbing the underdog price on the Marlins rather than laying juice with another sub‑par pitcher.

Reichel flagged a sneaky prop angle: Edward Cabrera has already surrendered six stolen bases in just two starts. Facing the Reds, who rank top‑5 in steal attempts, that sets up perfectly for speed demon Elly De La Cruz (8‑for‑9 on SBs this season). Reichel expects Cincinnati to put constant pressure on Cabrera’s slow delivery and poor pick‑off move, making an Elly stolen‑base prop—or multi‑steal SGP—a strong plus‑money bet.

Bamford likes the over 8.5, pointing to Nick Martinez’s consistent mediocrity (four straight starts of exactly 4 ER in 4–5 IP) and Edward Cabrera’s early‑season struggles. Both clubs are 57% to the over against right‑handed pitching, and Cincinnati’s offense just erupted for 22 runs on Sunday. With neither arm looking capable of a shutdown outing and both bullpens unreliable, Bamford expects runs to keep flowing at loanDepot Park.

Donnie Rightside urged bettors to fade Sunday’s 24‑run Cincinnati eruption and instead play the under (8) in Miami. LoanDepot Park suppresses offense—the park factor for runs has been 0.86 over the last three seasons—and both starters have the profiles to keep it quiet. Marlins rookie Max Meyer brings a 2.63 ERA, 2.92 xFIP and 24% strikeout rate through 24 innings, while Nick Lodolo counters with a 2.31 ERA and an xFIP of 4.14 propped up by a 12.1% swinging‑strike rate. DRS also noted that Cincinnati’s bullpen used four relievers in Sunday’s rout, so David Bell will likely go straight to high‑leverage arms if runs start to pile up. With two average‑to‑below offenses in the majors’ third‑worst home‑run environment, Rightside projects something in the 4‑3 range and advises grabbing the under before it dips to 7.5.

Kenny G leaned to Cincinnati at –130 even after the 24‑run explosion in Baltimore. He trusts Nick Lodolo to stack another strong outing and cited a 3.33 bullpen ERA that ranks top‑5 as a safety net once Lodolo exits. Cincinnati’s sticks are trending up—5, 8, 7, 3 and 8 runs their last five—and Elly De La Cruz has dragged the team batting average back toward respectability. Miami counters with rookie Max Meyer, whose 2.63 ERA looks solid but comes with a concerning two‑homer outing versus Arizona and no appearance of more than three earned runs yet, suggesting regression. Kenny views the Marlins’ 4.32 bullpen ERA as a clear liability and questions whether their 18th‑ranked run production is sustainable. Add in Miami’s 9‑12 overall record and Kenny is comfortable making the Reds a small-play moneyline pick, with a NRFI sprinkle as a secondary angle.

Scott Reichel is playing the first‑five UNDER (projected line 4 or 4.5) when Nick Lodolo faces Max Meyer. Reichel thinks Sunday’s 24‑run explosion by Cincinnati inflated Monday’s total and ignores the pitching advantages. Lodolo has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three of four starts since returning from paternity leave and owns a 30.9% K rate against Miami’s projected lineup. Meyer carries three straight quality starts, a 14% swinging‑strike rate and zero home runs allowed through 18 innings. LoanDepot Park grades as a bottom‑five HR park, so Reichel wants no part of either erratic bullpen and instead trusts two starters who routinely work into the sixth.

Lonte Smith is betting Miami on the first‑five moneyline and sprinkling the full‑game price despite the Marlins’ five‑game skid. He highlighted Max Meyer’s stretch of three consecutive quality starts and a 2.11 FIP, calling the rookie “the one arm on this staff I actually trust.” While Nick Lodolo has been sharp, Lonte believes Cincinnati’s lineup used up its allotment of fireworks during Sunday’s 24‑run outburst and has otherwise posted a pedestrian .301 OBP in April. Miami’s offense owns a better wRC+ than Cincinnati and has shown fight even in losses, but the fatal flaw is a bullpen allowing 5.6 runs per game. By isolating the first five innings, Smith avoids that weakness and rides Meyer’s slider‑heavy arsenal in a pitcher‑friendly park.

Stephen (Just a Bet Outside) recommended Max Meyer over 5.5 strikeouts at +125 for a half‑unit. Meyer has cleared this number in three of four starts with strikeout totals of 7, 8, 4 and 7 while generating 18, 9, 15 and 12 whiffs, respectively. A clear pattern has emerged: when Meyer faces teams inside the top 15 for strikeout rate against right‑handed pitching he records at least seven punch‑outs. The Reds fit that profile, sporting the 10th‑highest K‑rate versus righties (23.4%). Stephen rattled off comparable pitchers—Bryce Miller (8 Ks), Justin Verlander (9), Logan Webb (10 and 5) and Nathan Eovaldi (8)—who all piled up strikeouts against Cincinnati. He praised Meyer’s command, plus‑slider and whiff ability, calling the +125 price "bonkers" given the matchup. He expects six‑plus Ks if Meyer simply maintains his early‑season form.

Mike Maher said Nick Martinez is worth picking up for his Monday start in Miami. Martinez has scuffled early, but LoanDepot Park suppresses power and the light‑hitting Marlins have the third‑worst wOBA in baseball. Maher likes the combination of pitcher‑friendly venue and opponent, noting you can safely drop or bench Martinez afterward because his second turn of the week is scheduled for Coors Field. Daily‑move managers should capitalize on the Marlins matchup and dodge the Colorado land mine, while weekly‑move players should probably pass.

For the Reds‑Marlins total, Cash Out Sports Picks played the over. Last year’s Lodolo‑Mayer showdown produced 10 runs, part of a 6‑1 over trend in the season series, with at least one club scoring six in every game but one. Miami ranks fourth in team batting average and Cincinnati has already driven in 93 runs on the young season. The Reds have scored five‑plus in four of the last five contests, while the Marlins have plated at least four in eight of their last ten. Both starters allow contact when they lose the zone, and neither bullpen is elite. All signals point to another high‑scoring affair exceeding the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Cincinnati on the money line. Nick Lodolo has not allowed a run in 12.2 road innings this season and owns a 2‑0 record, 2.16 ERA in three career starts against Miami. His counterpart Eury Perez (transcribed as Mayer) was roughed up for six runs in just four frames by the Reds last year and has walked at least two hitters in each of his last three outings. Cincinnati’s bullpen advantage and hotter bats strengthen the case: the Reds have plated five‑plus in four of their last five and seven of their last nine, while Miami is still searching for consistency at 6‑7 in home games. Given Lodolo’s dominance, the bullpen edge, and the Reds’ momentum, the tout expects Cincinnati to open the series with a win.

Elly De La Cruz is a ceiling play according to the host. He is 3‑for‑3 with extra‑base pop against Max Meyer and has hits in 11 of 14 games this season. That perfect prior plus his speed/power combo makes him a strong bet for hits plus steals/total bases ladders and a high‑upside DFS tournament option.

Computer projection: Reds 5, Marlins 4 with the Over on the 8‑run total. Cincinnati is installed at ‑140 behind the long‑awaited 2025 debut of Nick Lodolo (coming off a spotless rehab, 0.00 ERA). Max Meyer (2.63 ERA) has been sharp but faces a dangerous Reds lineup that just hung 24 runs on Baltimore. LoanDepot Park still suppresses homers, yet both clubs rank top‑8 in stolen bases, so the model sees plenty of baserunners turning into runs. With Miami slogging at 9‑12 and the Reds motivated to reach 12‑11, the algorithm likes Cincinnati to cash and the total to clear the low number.

Calling Max Meyer a "DraftKings‑only GPP dart," Shepardson pointed to a 27.6 K%, 2.97 SIERA and 58.1% ground‑ball rate through 24 innings. The Reds are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (91) with a 23.4% K rate versus righties, and tonight’s total sits at a pitcher‑friendly 7.5. Even though Miami is a slight +115 underdog, Meyer’s combination of whiffs, worm‑burners and a weak opponent makes him an ideal low‑rostered SP2 for tournaments.

Data Skrive leaned toward the Over 8 runs at -104, noting multiple team trends that point to a high‑scoring opener in Miami. The Reds have cashed the over in six of their last 10 games and are plating 7.5 runs per outing in that stretch. The Marlins have seen the total go over in eight of their last 10, largely because their pitching has cratered (6.27 ERA, 7.6 K/9) while the offense is still producing 5.6 runs per game. With both bullpens overworked and the roof closed at loanDepot Park minimizing weather concerns, Data Skrive projected a combined total of nine runs and advised bettors to grab the Over before the number potentially moves to 8.5.

Data Skrive recommended backing the Reds at the current -127 moneyline, projecting a 5‑4 Cincinnati win and assigning the Reds a 54% implied victory chance. The write‑up highlighted that Cincinnati is 4‑3 as a favorite this season and 3‑1 in its last four games when laying juice. Offensively the Reds are hot, averaging 7.5 runs and 1.3 homers per contest over their past 10 while posting a 6‑4 straight‑up record. Their pitching staff owns a solid 3.80 ERA and 9.3 K/9 during that same span. Meanwhile, Miami has been an underdog 19 times, winning only seven (36.8%) and owns an ugly 6.27 ERA over the last 10 games. The Marlins are just 3‑6 in their previous nine as dogs of +107 or longer. Those trends, plus Cincinnati’s better recent run‑differential, led Data Skrive to label the Reds as the sharper side on Monday night.

According to Bevilacqua, Dimers’ simulations project just 7.4 total runs in Reds‑Marlins, creating value on Under 8 at -115. The model assigns a 56% hit rate, yielding a 2.6% positive expected value. With both clubs profiling as below‑average offenses in the early season data dump, the model leans toward a pitcher’s duel at LoanDepot Park.

Todd Zola flagged Nick Lodolo as Monday’s top streaming pitcher. Lodolo comes off paternity leave for a home start against a light‑hitting Marlins lineup that owns one of the league’s highest strikeout rates versus left‑handers. THE BAT X projects 5.4 IP, 2.3 ER, and 5.3 K, good for 10.4 projected fantasy points and a 58% win probability, yet Lodolo is rostered in only 47% of ESPN leagues. Zola noted the alternative would have been a much tougher road start in Baltimore, so the schedule shift plus a park that slightly suppresses power give Lodolo both ratio protection and K upside.