JD Bets bet Jose Berrios over 1.5 walks (−125) against Boston, noting that the right-hander is averaging 2.2 free passes per start in 2024 and has issued at least two in five of his six outings. Boston is the third-most patient lineup in baseball, drawing 4.5 walks per game over the last ten and cashing a first-inning run 70 % of the time, meaning traffic should arrive quickly. With neither club striking out much, JD expects deep counts and thinks Berrios’ shaky command puts him in constant trouble, making the walk prop far safer than strikeout or earned-run alternatives.

Osborne took Over 1.5 walks for Jose Berrios, noting the right-hander has handed out at least two walks in five of six starts this season, including three the last time he faced Boston on April 7. The Red Sox enter the rematch walking at the second-highest clip versus right-handed pitching over the past two weeks and rank fifth in walk rate for the full season. With Berrios struggling to locate and the Sox showing elite plate discipline, Osborne feels two free passes is the floor, not the ceiling.

Guy Boston said Jarren Duran is a strong play to clear 1.5 combined hits-runs-RBIs tonight in Toronto. The pick is built on a 9-for-10 recent hit rate (3.2 H+R+RBI per game) and a 58 % season success rate (18/31). Against the Jays specifically, Duran has cashed this number in 15 of the last 19 meetings and in five of six games this year. The head-to-head matchup is even sweeter: in 18 career plate appearances versus Jose Berrios he owns a .500 average with 3 homers and 5 RBI. Splits show Duran’s bat heats up versus righties (-.293 AVG, 131 WRC+), while Berrios’ numbers soften slightly against left-handed hitters. Pitch mix helps too—Berrios’ top pitch is a sinker (30.6 %), and Duran owns a .405 wOBA against sinkers plus a .395 mark against his four-seam. All of that convinced Guy Boston to anchor the ladder-challenge parlay with Duran’s over at roughly –155 on BetMGM/DraftKings.

Scott Reichel cautiously backed Toronto at −112, calling it mostly a Tanner Houck fade. Houck is winless with a 7.58 ERA overall and an eye-popping 11.65 ERA on the road where opponents are batting .395 against him (22 runs in 17 IP, eight walks). Jose Berrios has not justified his mega-contract but normally limits damage—Reichel projected a realistic five innings, two runs—which should be enough against a Boston lineup that has thrived at Fenway but remains inconsistent on the road. Even though the Blue Jays are just 2-8 in their last ten, Reichel noted they own the bullpen edge and hit right-handers nearly 30 points better at Rogers Centre. He priced Toronto at −120 and is comfortable laying the short number so long as Houck takes the hill.

Lindquist likes the Over 8.5 in Thursday’s Boston–Toronto matchup, citing two hittable starters and potentially drained bullpens after Wednesday’s 6-6 slugfest. He’s been targeting Jose Berrios all year because of a 10.9 % barrel rate and rising hard contact. On the other side, Tanner Houck’s sweeper “isn’t sweeping” and his sinker “isn’t sinking,” leading to a 5.05 xERA, 17.9 % K rate, and only 22 % whiff rate. Toronto’s lineup rarely strikes out, while Boston’s ranks top-10 in hard-hit percentage, so Lindquist expects constant traffic. With both pens likely using their leverage arms for the third straight day, he thinks even a modest 2–3 % bullpen degradation gives enough cushion to clear the total.

Bettor Mark said the simplest way to attack Jose Berrios is the game total, not the side. Berrios’ swinging-strike rate has cratered to 5.6%, his worst since 2018, and Houston’s lineup—headlined by red-hot Alex Bregman—has produced a top-5 hard-hit rate the past two weeks. Mark predicted ‘a lot of runs’ and encouraged bettors to look at the over rather than picking a winner, pointing out that Houston’s bullpen has been worked heavily the last two days while Toronto’s relief corps ranks 24th in xFIP. A warm, hitter-friendly forecast only adds to his expectation of an 8-plus-run game.

The tout advised playing the over, pointing out that both starters allowed plenty of contact in April—Berrios had a 1.28 WHIP over 29 innings while Houck’s ERA ballooned to 7.88 with a .316 opponent average. Neither bullpen is elite (Toronto 16th, Boston 17th in ERA), setting the stage for late-inning insurance runs. With Toronto’s bats finally awake and Houck’s ongoing road woes, Cash Out Sports Picks projects a slugfest that sails past the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Toronto, highlighting Jose Berrios’ track record against Boston (seven innings, one run in his last meeting) and Tanner Houck’s brutal 7.88 road ERA with opponents batting .316 in April. The Blue Jays carry momentum from a Wednesday walk-off and now face a pitcher who has yet to thrive away from Fenway. Given Toronto’s slight bullpen edge (3.89 ERA vs Boston’s 3.93) and Berrios’ steadiness, the tout expects the Jays to secure the series finale at Rogers Centre.

B Wade likes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vladdy has cashed this prop in 60 percent of games on the season and in 6 of his last 7 at Rogers Centre, including four straight. He slashes .280 against right-handers and owns a .350 mark (7-for-20) versus Tanner Houck, tonight’s starter, who sports a brutal 7.00-plus ERA and 1.69 WHIP. With a decent 20-AB sample and Houck getting shelled all year, Wade sees Guerrero’s combination of home-park comfort and pitcher history driving this bet.

B Wade called Jarren Duran over 1.5 total bases his favorite play of the slate. Duran has cleared in 8 of his last 9, averaging just under three bases during that stretch. The matchup is juicy: against Jose Berrios he is 9-for-18 (.500) with 3 homers, effectively producing an .833 slugging percentage from that sample. Duran is batting .302 versus right-handed pitching overall and enters as arguably the hottest hitter in baseball over the past two weeks. Even-money pricing seals the deal.

Kenny G said the best way to attack this pick-’em is to lay the ‑110 on Toronto because Jose Berrios is trending up while Tanner Houck is moving in the opposite direction. Berrios blanked the Yankees over 5.1 innings in his last start and dominated Boston on April 7th (7 IP, 1 ER), giving the Jays a clear starting-pitching edge. Houck, meanwhile, sits at 0-2 with a 7.58 ERA, has been tagged for 4+ earned in three of his past four outings, and Boston has lost all four of those games. Kenny also pointed to bullpen reliability (Boston 4.05 ERA vs Toronto roughly league-average) and offensive splits: the Red Sox rank 3rd in runs but their production has not translated to wins because the pen leaks late, while Toronto is stuck at 27th in runs yet owns an 8-6 home record and is 17-11 to the under, a profile he likes in a tight, lower-scoring matchup. With both sides priced equally, Kenny trusts Berrios’ recent form and the Jays’ slightly steadier relief corps to tilt the game Toronto’s way.

Final Round highlighted Jarren Duran as a plus matchup play versus Jose Berrios. Duran is 9-for-18 with 3 HR lifetime (.500) against the right-hander and has at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 games. That combination of recent form and proven dominance makes him a strong target for hit, total-base, or even HR props on Thursday.

Just A Bet Outside paired Jarren Duran with Francisco Lindor for a plus-money “1+ hit each” parlay, spotlighting Duran as the anchor leg. Duran is batting .375 over the past week and has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 games, including five multi-hit efforts in the last eight. He owns a .300 average versus right-handed pitching overall and absolutely murders Jose Berrios, going 9-for-18 lifetime with eight extra-base hits. Berrios’ long-standing issues against left-handed power bats add another layer of confidence. With Duran’s contact streak, elite platoon split, and sparkling history versus Berrios, JABO felt the single-hit threshold was the safest way to exploit the matchup while still grabbing plus odds through the parlay.

Stephen highlighted Jarren Duran as one of his ten best hitter match-ups for the May 1 slate. Duran owns a 9-for-18 career line with three home runs against Jose Berrios, the projected starter for Toronto. Stephen noted that Duran is also scorching right now, batting .600 with two homers and seven RBI over the past week, and Berrios has historically struggled to keep left-handed bats in the yard. Those two data points led Stephen to position Duran as an ideal target for total-bases or RBI props and a priority DFS play in the Red Sox–Blue Jays game.

BetMGM Betting leaned Under 8.5 total runs, citing Toronto’s 18-9 mark to the full-game Under in its last 27 contests (+8.07 units, 27% ROI) and the Jays’ heavy first-pitch contact issues (MLB-low .177 BA on 0-0 counts). Boston’s strikeout-averse pitching staff owns the 5th-highest ground-ball rate since 2023 (44%), while Toronto’s offense sits 23rd in run scoring. On the other side, the Blue Jays bullpen is top-3 in strikeout rate with two strikes (46%). Put together, BetMGM’s model projects only 7.7 combined runs, leaving enough cushion to play the Under 8.5 despite Tanner Houck’s recent struggles.

BetMGM Betting recommended taking Under 5.5 strikeouts on Jose Berrios (-155). The analysis hinges on Berrios generating a league-low 17% whiff rate on first pitches since 2024 and a 20% miss rate vs right-handed hitters—both bottom-10 percentile marks that cap his strikeout upside. Boston’s lineup may strike out vs lefties, but against right-handers it owns MLB’s best hard-hit rate and a bottom-third chase rate, forcing Berrios into contact. With the Red Sox putting just 26% of swings in play on first pitch (lowest in MLB), they extend counts rather than whiff early, further limiting quick K opportunities. BetMGM’s simulation lands Berrios at 4.8 punch-outs, making the Under playable down to ‑150.

BetMGM Betting pointed to Boston’s 17-10 record on the First-Five (F5) moneyline over their last 27 games (+9.8 units, 23% ROI) and recommended another play on the Sox at roughly even money. The edge centers on Tanner Houck’s extreme first-time-through splits (1.181 OPS allowed) being offset by Boston’s league-best 48% hard-hit rate against Jose Berrios’ low whiff profile. Meanwhile, Toronto ranks 23rd in runs scored and owns MLB’s worst first-pitch batting average (.177) in 2025, limiting early scoring upside. With Boston 13-0 when leading after eight frames, BetMGM sees value in banking on a fast Red Sox start before bullpens enter.

BetMGM Betting highlighted Carlos Narvaez’ home-run prop at + odds and framed it as a worthwhile flyer. Their write-up noted that the rookie catcher has cleared the 0.5 HR line in 3 of his last 9 games, a run that would have returned +24.5 units and a 272% ROI for anyone blindly tailing the Over. Boston currently owns MLB’s best hard-hit rate (48%), and Narvaez has posted a 46% pull rate against right-handed pitching, a profile that pairs well with the Rogers Centre power alley in left. With Jose Berrios owning just a 17% first-pitch whiff rate (second percentile among qualified starters), BetMGM’s staff believes Narvaez should get hittable offerings early in counts, making the Over 0.5 HR an enticing lottery ticket.

BetMGM Betting advised jumping on Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI at +135. The model call-out leans on Devers cashing this exact prop in 7 of his last 8 games, good for +10.95 units and a 137% ROI. Boston’s offense leads the league in hard-hit rate, and Devers is sitting on a 56% hard-contact clip during the streak. Toronto’s starter Jose Berrios ranks in just the 4th percentile in right-handed miss rate and often falls behind hitters (56% of pitches away when behind in the count), a pattern that sets Devers up for repeat RBI chances. With the Red Sox implied for 4.3 runs and Devers back in the three-hole, BetMGM sees plenty of volume for another run-producer ticket to cash.

While Zola is fading Kikuchi in fantasy, Carty likes the OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +115. THE BAT X puts the over at 49% with a modest $4.88 EV, pointing to weather data showing Thursday’s temperature/humidity combo is the seventh-best for generating whiffs on the slate.

Carty suggested a YRFI wager (run in the 1st inning) at -100 for Red Sox @ Blue Jays. THE BAT X gives a 50% probability, essentially a coin flip, but the even money price and the potency of both offenses in a homer-friendly park make it his preferred YRFI of the day.

Carty recommended betting Daulton Varsho OVER 0.5 HR at +550. THE BAT X pegs a 17% chance (EV $11.28) because Varsho’s extreme fly-ball tendencies line up beautifully against Boston starter Tanner Houck, an extreme ground-ball pitcher. That batted-ball mismatch, paired with the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, creates a juicy payout opportunity.

Carty’s third home-run prop is Jarren Duran OVER 0.5 HR at +550. THE BAT X assigns a 16% success rate ($7.12 EV). The system ranks Rogers Centre as the second-best park for boosting homers to left-handed hitters, giving Duran’s pull-side power a significant park upgrade.

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty flagged Triston Casas OVER 0.5 HR at +550 as Thursday’s top value. The model gives an 18% dinger probability, translating to a $15.44 expected value on a $1 bet. Carty’s key angle: Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest center-field wall in MLB, boosting power for left-handed bats like Casas.

Data Skrive projected the Red Sox-Blue Jays series finale to finish over the 8.5-run total. The model’s 6-5 final score forecast lands 2.5 runs clear of the posted number. Recent form supports the call: Boston games have cleared the total in eight of their last 10 while averaging 6.4 runs per night, and Toronto pitching has cratered to a 6.47 ERA over the same span. The Jays’ bullpen in particular has been tagged for seven homers in those 10 contests. With Alex Bregman riding a 10-game hitting streak (.400, 3 HR) and the Red Sox slugging 18 long balls in their last 10, the algorithm expects both offenses to capitalize on vulnerable arms and push this one past the number.

Data Skrive’s win-probability simulation pegs Thursday’s matchup as a true coin-flip (50% each side) yet books have Boston a small underdog at -107. With Toronto just 2-8 over its last 10 and 5-3 overall when listed at -112 or shorter, the model sees modest edge grabbing the Sox at plus money. Boston enters with the hotter bats (6.4 runs per game, 18 HR in their last 10) and an offense paced by a locked-in Alex Bregman (.328 season average, 7 HR, 24 RBI). If the Sox offense maintains recent form against a Jays staff allowing 4.8 BB/9 and a 6.47 ERA over that same stretch, the projection leans to Boston squeaking out a 6-5 win.

Zarpentine played Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases at -105, noting the outfielder is white-hot: 10-for-20 with three extra-base hits in his last four games and at least one knock in 15 of 16 since April 13. He has topped 1.5 bases in seven of his past eight contests. The kicker is a dream BvP line—Duran is 9-for-18 (.500) with five doubles and three homers against Thursday starter Jose Berrios. Given both the recent form and the career dominance over Berrios, Zarpentine thinks two bases is the floor right now.

After cashing Boston moneyline yesterday, Guy Boston flipped sides and leaned Blue Jays pick-em today. He views it as a classic "home team off a blowout" bounce-back. The Red Sox send Lucas Giolito for his season debut—high upside but wide range of outcomes—and Boston questions how deep he can go. Toronto faces journeyman Casey Lawrence, who sports a 1.66 WHIP and near-5.00 ERA in multi-inning relief stints and threw 40+ pitches last night, so his status as starter is shaky. Market still lists game near pick-em, which Boston feels underrates the Jays given Boston’s season-long inconsistency on offense. He would also sprinkle the over 9 in case Giolito is rusty and the Sox keep raking.

Brad is on the Red Sox moneyline because Toronto has lost four straight as American League underdogs and their bats have looked ‘lethargic,’ while Boston ‘has been rolling.’ He believes the clubs are headed in opposite directions and wants to ride the hot side at Fenway.

Dylan Rockford leaned toward the first-five over in Red Sox–Blue Jays, projecting plenty of early traffic from two volatile arms. Rockford reminded listeners that Jose Berrios owns an ERA north of 5.00 at home the past two seasons with one of the league’s highest hard-contact rates, while Lucas Giolito is making his first big-league appearance since straining a hamstring in March and walked six in his final rehab outing. Both offenses have been swinging it—Boston ranks fourth in wRC+ over the last seven days and Toronto sits top-10 in barrel rate. Rockford will play a first-five total of 4.5 or better and would still consider 5 at plus money because he doubts either pitcher makes it through three scoreless frames.

Malcolm Bamford wants the Blue Jays team total over when books finally drop a number because he expects Lucas Giolito to be extremely rusty in his season debut. Giolito strained his hamstring on his very first spring-training outing and has looked shaky during Triple-A rehab: 85 pitches in his last tune-up but only 47 strikes and six walks. Bamford noted that the right-hander’s velocity and slider command both lagged, a bad recipe in Rogers Centre against a lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate since April 20. With no Toronto starter announced yet, Bamford is comfortable isolating the Jays’ offense rather than guessing a side or total, projecting four to five runs off Giolito by the sixth. If books open Toronto’s team total at 4.5 or lower, he will fire immediately and still likes a 5.0 flat at plus money.

Bo Bichette owns a 5-for-14 (.357) line with a homer against Lucas Giolito, who is making his first MLB start in years. Bichette has a hit in 12 of 15 games, so the tout views him as a low-risk hits or total-bases play.

The analyst highlighted Jarren Duran’s gaudy 9-for-18, 3-HR career line (.500) against Jose Berrios. Duran has at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 games, making him a strong pick for hit or total-bases props against a pitcher he’s historically torched.

Romanelli backed Toronto moneyline because Lucas Giolito’s control issues surfaced during rehab (high walk totals) and he likely won’t work deep. Jose Berrios, meanwhile, has bounced back after his rough Opening Day, holding Boston to one run over seven innings earlier this month, and the Jays have won four of his last five outings against quality opponents. Ron thinks the matchup favors Toronto from both a starting-pitching and lineup standpoint.