Bettor Mark made the Mets his first official bet of the Sunday slate, laying –124 in Game 1 of the double-header at St. Louis. He called the wager a classic “Fetty fade,” noting that Eric Fetty has been hittable and that any sub--130 road price against him is, in his view, a bargain. Mark emphasized that New York sends prospect Tidwell to the mound while the Cardinals counter with Fetty, and he expects the Mets’ lineup to capitalize on Fetty’s mediocre stuff and command. He framed the pick as simple value: a contending offense versus a pitcher he wants to oppose at a number he considers too short.

Kirby recommended streaming Steven Matz on Tuesday at home against Pittsburgh. She pointed out the Pirates rank bottom-five in wOBA and strikeout rate versus lefties, and the matchup comes in pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. Matz has already logged 24 innings since rejoining the rotation and owns a 1.50 ERA. For anyone worried that mark is fluky, Kirby highlighted his 1.89 FIP as supportive. Even the harsher xFIP sits at 3.49, which she argues is still perfectly usable for a one-day add. The only drawback is a possible duel with Paul Skenes, but Kirby noted the Pirates have failed to give Skenes run support, keeping Matz live for a win if he limits damage.

He doubled down with an OVER call, citing a battered Cardinals staff that has cashed three straight overs and allowed the total to eclipse in three of the last four series meetings. Mets bats travel, averaging 5.3 runs and 1.2 homers per road game. St. Louis starters hold a 4.02 ERA, while the bullpen lags at 4.73—arms that will be stretched thin in a twin bill. With Pallante’s recent homer problem and New York’s depth, expect another scoreboard-lighting affair.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Mets in game two of the double-header. New York has won nine straight in the series and sits ninth in MLB at 4.82 runs per game. Opposing bulk man Andre Pallante ("Halante" in the transcript) has been rocked for 11 runs, 20 hits, and four homers over his last 16.1 innings, including a recent drubbing by these same Mets. Trevor Megill has punched out 19 across his last two starts, and the Mets pitching staff leads MLB with a 2.69 ERA despite injuries—depth that matters on double-header days. Play: Mets ML.

Drew Martin recommended betting the Mets at –145 in game two of the doubleheader. New York enters 21-11 with a +50 run differential, and Martin wants to ride both their momentum and Tylor Megill’s hot hand: a 1.70 ERA with 19 strikeouts and only four hits allowed across his last two starts. Andre Pallante, meanwhile, owns a 4-plus ERA and 5-plus FIP, has dropped his last two decisions, and has given up 11 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 15 innings. Martin added that the Mets’ offense sits top-5 in wRC+ over the past week and that their deeper, fresher bullpen is a major edge in the back half of a twin bill. With listed pitchers, he sees clear advantages on the mound, at the plate, and in relief, making New York worth the price.

Peterson also took Over 8.5 runs, projecting the total at 9.1. He pointed to Tidwell’s chronic walk problem (4.7 BB/9 in the minors) plus Fedde’s inability to miss bats (career-low 4.7 K/9) as a recipe for traffic on the bases from both sides. With neither bullpen fresh for a doubleheader and Busch Stadium temperatures forecast in the mid-70s with a slight breeze out to left, Peterson expects both clubs to lean on long relievers and push the game into double-digit territory.

Greg Peterson said the Cardinals were worth a play at +115 because Mets rookie Blade Tidwell is being thrown straight from the minors where he owns a 5.00 ERA and alarming 4.7 BB/9. Peterson noted that command issues typically worsen in a major-league debut. While Erick Fedde’s 4.68 ERA and soft 4.7 K/9 are nothing special, Peterson likes that Fedde keeps the ball in the yard (0.8 HR/9) and should be able to navigate a New York lineup that must travel its entire bullpen in a doubleheader. He power-rated the game Cardinals ‑104, giving a 19-cent edge to backing St. Louis on the moneyline.

Palyo labeled Jesse Winker his favorite lottery ticket, taking the over 0.5 HR at a juicy +800. The veteran lefty owns a 43% fly-ball rate and 57% pull rate, indicators that more homers are coming despite only one so far. He invoked the old DFS mantra “Winker vs. sinkers,” pointing out that Cardinals starter Erick Fedde leans on a low-90s sinker/cutter/slider mix for 90% of his pitches, posts a 92.2% zone-contact rate, and records just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate—meaning lots of hittable pitches. Weather models call for wind blowing out to right at Busch Stadium, and for the BvP crowd Winker is 4-for-12 (.333) with two career homers off Fedde. All factors combine for a live longshot.

Soni called Juan Soto’s +340 homer prop mis-priced given his recent tear. The Mets star is up to a .258/.829 line with five homers, and he smashed two opposite-field shots Thursday at Citi Field. Over the past week Soto sports a 1.000+ OPS, and St. Louis ranks bottom-seven in HR rate allowed to left-handed hitters. Soni believes the red-hot approach and friendly matchup set up another fireworks display.

Kenny G advised laying the -143 with New York, arguing the matchup is far more lopsided than the price suggests. He noted Tylor Megill owns a 1.74 ERA and has not surrendered more than three earned in any of his last five turns, while the Mets’ bullpen sits eighth in MLB with a 3.18 ERA. On the other side, Erick Fedde’s 4.68 ERA is buoyed by one good first start; St. Louis is 0-5 the last five times he has taken the ball, and its relief corps is a bottom-five unit (4.73 ERA). Offensively, Pete Alonso’s .345/8 HR/30 RBI start has helped push the Mets to 10th in runs and 7th in slugging, whereas the Cardinals have managed just four total runs in their last two games and are trending down from their early top-10 ranks. With New York 22-11 overall and St. Louis 14-19, Kenny expects the Mets to grab an early lead and let their superior pen salt it away.

For his dog pick, Dylan Rockford jumped on the Mets –1.5 at +115, arguing the price underrates the growing gulf between the two starting pitchers. Erick Fetty sports a 4.68 ERA, has allowed two or more runs in every outing, and the Cardinals have dropped each of his five starts—including a seven-run implosion versus Milwaukee. By contrast, Tylor Megill owns a sparkling 1.74 ERA with consistent five-plus-inning performances that hand things to a rested New York bullpen. Rockford noted that St. Louis is just 2-8 in its last ten overall and continues to struggle generating hard contact, while the Mets have won four straight behind far better pitching depth. With Megill’s 26% K-rate and Fetty’s growing hard-hit problem (43.5%), Rockford projected a multi-run victory roughly 47% of the time, making the +115 run-line payout the smartest way to attack the game.

Scott Reichel shifted away from the full-game Mets moneyline he mentioned earlier in the week and zeroed in on the first-five –0.5 run line. He trusts Tylor Megill’s 1.74 ERA and string of five-plus-inning outings far more than Erick Fetty, whose 4.68 ERA comes with St. Louis dropping all five of his starts, including a seven-run meltdown versus Milwaukee. Reichel noted the Mets’ bullpen depth makes a full-game play palatable, but the price has crept up and New York’s road record worries him. By isolating the first five he can exploit the clear starting-pitching edge while avoiding any late-inning variance.

Scott Reichel advised laying the –140 with New York in St. Louis thanks to Tylor Megill’s 1.74 ERA and consistent five-plus-inning outings before a dependable Mets bullpen. By contrast, Erick Fetty owns a 4.68 ERA and the Cardinals have lost all five of his starts, including a recent blow-up against Milwaukee. Although St. Louis is usually tougher at Busch Stadium, Reichel noted the home/road split was outweighed by Megill’s current form and the Mets’ pitching depth. He concluded that the short chalk was warranted and expected the Mets to extend Fetty’s losing streak.

Kelly Kirby called Griffin Canning her favorite pitching pickup of the week, surprised he’s rostered in only 37 % of leagues. Since landing with the Mets he owns a 2.61 ERA and solid strikeout rate, and every estimator—FIP 3.25, xFIP 3.56, xERA 3.92, Sierra 3.91—sits within half a run, suggesting no immediate blow-up. The downside is a 1.40 WHIP born from occasional wildness, so Kirby views him as a matchup streamer: start versus offenses like the Marlins and Rockies, sit against the Yankees or Dodgers. New York’s improved lineup and bullpen give him credible win equity, making him a useful short-term fix in 12-team formats that rotate starters. Kirby added that the emotional boost of pitching for a contender instead of the Angels can’t be ignored when speculating on an in-season breakout.

Kyle Purviance called the Mets –1.5 at +110 a gift. He likes the Tylor McGill vs Eric Fetty matchup, noting McGill’s velocity bump to 95-96 mph and 27 % K-rate over his last three starts while Fetty owns just a 6.7 % swinging-strike rate and 43 % hard-hit rate. Purviance emphasized that New York leads MLB in OPS and wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, even with Juan Soto slumping, because the lineup stays lefty-heavy all the way to Brett Baty in the eight-spot. He loves teams whose 6-7-8-9 hitters reach base, arguing it keeps pressure on the Cards’ bullpen, which is stretched after consecutive extra-inning games. He projects six-plus Mets runs and sees a multi-run win as the most likely outcome.

Brian Howard agreed with the Mets run-line angle but suggested juicing the payout by building a Same Game Parlay. He likes adding Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso hit/run/RBI props to the –1.5. McNeil is 7-for-16 (.438) with just one strikeout in 20 plate appearances off Eric Fetty, while Alonso is 6-for-16 with two doubles. Combining ‘McNeil 2+ H/R/RBI’ or ‘Alonso 1+ RBI’ with the Mets –1.5 pushes the price north of +300 and leans into the same handicap—New York’s dominance against mediocre right-handed pitching.

Projected score: Mets 6-5. Laying -155 is supported by Tylor Megill’s 1.74 ERA and New York’s 22-11 record. Erick Fedde’s 4.68 ERA and the Cards’ 14-19 mark give the computer confidence the Mets offense can cash the moneyline and push the game over 8.5.

It's The Final Round advised passing on Francisco Lindor even though he carries a 3-for-7 (.429) lifetime line against presumed starter "Fidi." The tout stressed that Lindor has burned bettors the last two times he was featured and is not delivering despite a 23-for-60 run over the past 28 days. With the stagnating production and recent strikeout issues, the analyst prefers fading Lindor’s hit and total-bases props until he shows consistent form again.

It's The Final Round pushed Paul Goldschmidt as a power prop repeat against Zach Lutel after Goldy went yard in their last meeting. Goldschmidt is 4-for-7 (.571) with a homer vs Lutel historically and has homered in back-to-back games. The tout noted he already cashed a HR ticket on Goldschmidt two nights ago and is willing to go back to the well, recommending HR and total-bases props plus DFS one-off usage.

Erik Halterman said Luisangel Acuna should be scooped up in season-long leagues now that Jeff McNeil’s return has not pushed the rookie back to the bench. McNeil has started only two of seven games at second base, leaving five starts for Acuna, and the Mets appear comfortable letting the 22-year-old run with the job. Acuna is batting .288—an exact match for his xBA—with a tidy 19 % strikeout rate and a respectable 38 % hard-hit rate. The lack of loft (0 barrels, 0 homers) is baked into the profile, but he already has seven steals and stole 40+ bags in four straight minor-league seasons. If you need speed and everyday plate appearances, Halterman believes Acuna is the add.

The tout also took the UNDER, pointing to six of the Mets’ last nine staying below the number and eight of St. Louis’ last twelve versus NL East clubs doing the same. With New York trotting out Megill (1.74 ERA) and a bullpen that complements the league’s No.3 ERA, plus a Cards offense that just scored one run in Cincinnati, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another tight affair that fails to reach the total.

Cash Out Sports Picks jumped on the Mets money-line, highlighting New York’s eight-game run over St. Louis and their league-best 2.53 team ERA. Tyler Megill has been nails (1.74 ERA in April; 20 H, 5 ER over 26 IP) while Cardinals starter Erick Fedde has been tattooed for 16 ER and 26 H in 26.2 IP — with St. Louis losing his last five starts. The Cards have plated four or fewer runs in four of the past five and own bottom-half pitching numbers. Given the pitching mismatch and New York’s recent .300/.473 slash at the plate, the tout felt the Mets should be even steeper favorites.

Drew Martin said the Mets are a play at the low watermark of –138 because Tylor Megill is dealing and St. Louis simply does not have the arms to match. Megill owns a 1.7 ERA and has fanned 19 batters with just four hits allowed over his last two outings, driving New York to a +50 run differential and a 21-9 record through 30 games. On the other side Eric Fetty has a 17-to-16 K:BB, was rocked for 10 hits and seven earned by Milwaukee in his previous start, and has yielded 21 hits plus eight walks in his last three. Martin added that the Mets lineup ranks top-5 over the past week and top-10 season-long, and their bullpen metrics also grade better than the Cards. All of that makes the Mets a buy in Game 2 at Busch Stadium.

Marcus recommends building a premium Mets stack—Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso—against Erick Fedde. Fedde’s 5.68 SIERA and microscopic 0.7% K-BB rate signal massive blow-up potential. Although the trio is pricey, the combination of elite contact quality and Fedde’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff makes the Mets one of the highest-ceiling stacks on the slate.

Marcus warned that Tylor Megill’s 24%+ K rate looks enticing at $8,800, but the Cardinals’ offense profiles as a bad matchup for strikeout hunting. St. Louis ranks among the league’s toughest lineups to fan and carries a high contact rate that should suppress Megill’s DK ceiling, making him a fade in tournaments where upside is paramount.

Joe Pisapia is swinging for the fences with Francisco Lindor to homer at +520 any day this weekend in St. Louis. Lindor owns a .595 SLG and four career homers off Sonny Gray and boasts a .333 average versus Kyle Gibson and former KBO ace Eric Feddie, both slated to pitch. The Cardinals’ staff has allowed the sixth-highest HR/FB rate (15.2%) since May, and Busch Stadium plays neutral for left-handed power. Pisapia called the Mets shortstop “my favorite lottery ticket on the board” given Lindor’s elevated 43% pull rate and barrel uptick over the last two weeks.

Jim Turvey said to play Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts at -105. He pointed out that Gray’s strikeout rate has fallen from last year’s career-best 30% back to 24%, right in line with his historical baseline. Supporting metrics are all sliding: swinging-strike rate down to 12.1% (13.4% in 2023), O-Swing down three points, Stuff+ down to 96 and Location+ down to 96. Turvey called 2023 an outlier season and expects continued mean reversion. The Mets own a bottom-10 strikeout rate, and they just saw Gray two weeks ago—six punch-outs in an outing that required a season-high 102 pitches. With the market still weighing 2023 too heavily, Turvey likes the near-even-money price on the under.

Razzle leaned toward excluding Sonny Gray from his GPP pool even though the same 7.5 total that props up Severino technically puts Gray “in play.” Gray’s earlier start against the Mets was merely “solid,” and Razzle noted that the right-hander offers limited ceiling: his strikeout prop is projected to open south of 5.0 and St. Louis is actually a +105 underdog, capping win bonus probability. With deeper, higher-K options available in the $9K range, Razzle sees Gray’s likely six-inning, four-strikeout line topping out around 16–18 DK points—insufficient for large-field tournament leverage. He advised keeping Gray as a single-entry contrarian piece only if weather or ownership projections dramatically shift.

Razzle flagged Luis Severino as a viable mid-tier DFS arm largely because of the game environment. Severino already faced the Cardinals once this season and, per Razzle, “shut them down,” finishing one decision shy of 24 DraftKings points. Vegas installs New York as modest –115 favorites with a slate-low 7.5 run total, giving Severino win equity and run-prevention upside without requiring a massive strikeout number. Razzle acknowledged the lack of an officially posted K prop at recording time but expects a 5.0–5.5 line that would still clear his tournament cutoff in such a low-scoring context. The Cardinals own an uninspiring .147 team ISO and only a 7.8% walk rate versus right-handers in 2025, factors Razzle cited as reasons Severino can again pitch six strong innings and flirt with 20+ DK points at what should be single-digit ownership.

Polzin suggested pairing Francisco Lindor with Soto and/or targeting Lindor’s OVER 0.5 total bases or hitting fantasy score. Lindor has 26 plate appearances against Sonny Gray, producing a .269 average but, more importantly, 3 homers, 4 RBI and 3 walks. Eight strikeouts make the matchup a little volatile, yet the power production pushes his ceiling well above the modest prop lines. Polzin likes him as a complementary piece if you’re stacking Mets lefties against Gray’s declining stuff.

Polzin pivoted to Juan Soto OVER his hitting fantasy score (9.0 on PrizePicks) after the 1.5 H+R+RBI prop was yanked. Soto owns Gray: 10 career at-bats, 5 hits (.500), 1 homer, 4 RBI, 4 walks and only 2 strikeouts. Projections rate him slightly above the posted 9.95 baseline despite the limited sample. With Gray’s .293 opponent average and heavy fly-ball issues already outlined, Polzin expects Soto to reach base multiple times and likely drive in or score at least one run, making the fantasy-score over the cleanest way to attack the matchup.

Eric Polzin advised taking Sonny Gray UNDER 32.5 pitching fantasy points on PrizePicks. Gray has been shelled by the current Mets roster: 99 batters faced, 29 hits, 7 homers, 9 RBI, 13 walks and just 20 strikeouts – a .293 opponent average. Market‐wide projections give only a 51.7% chance he clears the number, and Underdog posts a much tighter 30-point line, confirming the PP number is high. St. Louis enters as 1.5-run underdogs in a game with a modest total, making a quality start or a win (worth bonus points) unlikely. Polzin called the combination of Gray’s poor form, historical struggles, and the cross-site line gap one of the best edges on Friday’s slate.

Teddy Covers advised betting the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline in the May 2 matchup against the Mets. He argued that New York’s 21-11 start has them priced like an elite club, yet they have lost two straight and are only 3-4 over their last seven while ranking outside MLB’s five most profitable teams. That overvaluation meets a Cardinals side whose 14-18 record is skewed by a brutal six-series stretch versus the Reds, Brewers, Astros, Phillies, Mets and Braves. Covers pointed to Sonny Gray’s dominant history versus New York (4-0, 2.78 ERA career; six innings of one-run ball in Queens earlier this year) and a respectable six-inning, three-run outing against Milwaukee last week. With the Mets bullpen beginning to show cracks and Gray giving St. Louis the starting-pitching edge, Covers labeled this a clear “Cardinals-or-pass” spot at a slight plus price.

JD Bets hammered Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 hits allowed against the Mets. New York has long had Gray’s number, posting gaudy batting lines in nearly every historical matchup and running his strikeout rate to near zero in several appearances. When the clubs met on April 20, the Mets tagged him for six hits, continuing a trend of at least six knocks in two straight versus this lineup. Statcast shows hard-hit rates pushing 45% during that stretch, and Gray’s ERA has ballooned from 1.03 to 3.56 over his last five starts. The prop re-opened at 4.5 despite those red flags; JD expects a minimum of five safeties and noted that the Mets rank top-10 in contact rate while the Cardinals’ bullpen has been taxed, making it likely Gray faces an extra trip through the order.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the New York Mets moneyline. New York is 21-10 and 8-2 over its last ten, while St. Louis sits 14-17. The tout highlighted Mets starter Holmes, who has allowed only two runs over his last three starts and three total in three road outings. Conversely, Sonny Gray has surrendered six runs in his last two starts and eight across his last three Busch Stadium appearances; he also conceded three to the Mets in their prior meeting. The Cardinals’ bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, whereas the Mets pen ranks seventh. Add in New York’s strong splits versus right-handers and St. Louis’ inconsistency, and the Mets become the clear side.

Romanelli is doubling down on the Mets run-line because the club is 5-1 in Clay Holmes’ six starts and has covered the spread in each of the last four, including a 7-4 win over Sonny Gray and these same Cardinals. Holmes has given New York consistent length, and the lineup already touched Gray for three runs and a homer in six frames at Citi Field. Even away from Queens—where the Mets have been dominant—Romanelli trusts the combo of Holmes’ form and an offense averaging 6.4 runs in his last five turns to extend the run-line streak in St. Louis.

Brad Francis sided with the Cardinals on the moneyline for the series opener, stressing several data points. St. Louis is 10-5 straight-up at Busch Stadium, posting markedly better pitching and batting splits at home than on the road. Their offense just hung six and nine runs on the Reds in back-to-back wins earlier this week, signaling hot bats. Francis expects Mets starter Clay Holmes to begin regressing after an unexpectedly hot start, making him vulnerable to those Cardinals bats. On the flip side, Sonny Gray remains a reliable veteran who ‘is not going to allow five-plus runs’ in most outings, giving St. Louis a trustworthy arm. He also highlighted that New York’s staff ERA spikes when they travel, and the club is coming off a lackluster set against Arizona before flying in. All of that, plus the Cardinals’ well-documented home intensity, led Francis to recommend a smaller-unit play on St. Louis at plus money rather than laying road juice with the Mets.

Welsh hit Matthew Liberatore’s strikeout prop—set at 4.5—three of his last four outings and likes it again in Thursday’s early game against Cincinnati. The Reds have the NL’s second-highest K-rate versus lefties, and Liberatore’s "sweepy" slider is garnering a 38% whiff rate since his pitch-mix tweak. With weather-boosted run suppression at Busch Stadium and Liberatore projected for 90 pitches, Welsh expects five or more strikeouts at –110 juice.

The host showed frustration with Francisco Lindor, noting that while Lindor is 2-for-6 (.333) with a homer off Sonny Gray and has hits in 23 of the last 28 games, he has repeatedly burned recent parlays. He advised viewers to tread lightly on Lindor props until the shortstop proves more reliable.