Razzle called Garrett Crochet the top arm on the entire 11-game slate. Boston is –205 to win, Crochet owns the highest K-prop of the day at 6.5 (pick-em juice), and he carries +110 win odds, best on the board. The Twins lineup is light on intimidating bats and whiffs at a league-average clip, giving Crochet a path to double-digit strikeouts and the fabled DK ‘nut’ score.

Morgan targeted Jarren Duran at $3,800, pointing to the outfielder’s four triples and 11 steals despite muted power. He expects Duran to exploit Chris Paddack, who hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.00 since 2019 and has surrendered a .283 average to left-handed bats the past two seasons.

Chris Morgan highlighted Garrett Crochet as the slate’s safest high-end arm. The left-hander owns a 2.60 FIP that mirrors last year’s 2.68 mark and continues to strike out hitters at a double-digit per-nine clip. Morgan called the matchup ideal, noting Minnesota still hovers near the bottom-10 in runs scored, giving DFS managers the classic "top-tier pitcher vs bottom-tier offense" setup at $10,700 on FanDuel.

Matt Perrault backed Boston on the money-line leg of his parlay because he expects a bounce-back outing from Garrett Crochet. Crochet is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has already logged two gems at Fenway this season (6 IP, 0 ER vs White Sox; 5.2 IP, 1 ER vs Blue Jays). Perrault dismissed Crochet’s last Fenway blip (5 IP, 4 ER, 5 BB) as uncharacteristic and emphasized that Minnesota’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in almost every category. On the other side Chris Paddack is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA, giving Boston a clear pitching edge. After Saturday’s 4-3 loss Perrault believes the Red Sox “can’t afford” to drop another game with their ace on the hill, making the Sox a trustworthy anchor for parlays at home despite the steep −200 money-line price.

Calling for a 4-3 final, Data Skrive recommended the Under 8.5. The Twins’ pitching staff has logged a stingy 2.86 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across their last 10 contests, and eight of those games finished below the listed total. Boston’s staff owns a respectable 3.88 ERA over the same span, helping the Red Sox stay competitive in lower-scoring affairs. Although Boston’s offense has been potent lately, Minnesota’s lineup is averaging just 4.3 runs with only eight homers in its last 10. Combined with Chris Paddack’s solid form and an afternoon start at Fenway, the model sees the game landing closer to seven runs than the posted 8.5, making the Under the preferred side.

Peterson played Over 8 at Fenway, making the line 8.6. He noted Chris Paddack’s surface 5.60 ERA hides the fact he has allowed three homers and still surrendered just four total runs his last three starts, a sign hard contact is coming. On the other side, Garrett Crochet’s shiny 2.05 ERA is undermined by 3.7 BB/9 and a Red Sox bullpen sitting 17th with a 4.05 ERA. With two volatile starters and wind projected 10 mph to left, Peterson believes both offenses will cash in.

Data Skrive projected a 4-3 victory for Boston and endorsed the ‑229 moneyline despite the steep price. Their model highlighted that the Red Sox have cashed 55.6% of the 27 games in which they have been favorites this season and are 4-1 specifically when laying ‑229 or longer. Boston’s offense is rolling at 5.9 runs and 1.6 homers per game over the last 10, buoyed by Alex Bregman’s .324/8 HR/27 RBI line and Jarren Duran’s .362 clip during a seven-game hit streak. Meanwhile, Minnesota is only 3-8 as an underdog and 0-1 when priced at +188 or longer, suggesting limited upset equity. Although the Twins bring a 2.86 staff ERA over their past 10 games, Data Skrive still gives Boston a 54% win probability versus the 69.6% implied by the odds, framing the play as a high-confidence but high-vig wager.

Shubham Soni made Rafael Devers his top HR prop of the day at +265. Devers is blistering hot, slashing .429 with 15 hits, three homers, nine RBIs and a 1.300 OPS in his last eight games while consistently laying off junk. He now gets Twins right-hander Chris Paddack, who sports an 0-3 record, 5.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Devers has roasted righties all season, so Soni expects one misplaced fastball to leave Fenway in a hurry.

Brad Francis said to back Boston on the money line because Minnesota has dropped seven straight games when listed as AL East road underdogs. He does not trust the Twins’ bats away from Target Field and will keep fading them until they prove otherwise, calling Saturday another prime spot for the Red Sox at Fenway.

Tokyo Brandon said the Twins are worth an even-money bet on the road in Boston because their bullpen is "mopping things up" and currently grades second out of 30 clubs, while the Red Sox pen sits 17th on his proprietary scale. He trusts Bailey Ober’s experience over Hunter Dobbins, noting Ober has surrendered only one earned run in four of his last five outings once you strip out a blow-up start and a tough Mets matchup. Meanwhile, Dobbins’ shiny 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP have come in just 11 total innings against two weak lineups (White Sox and Cardinals). Offensively he grades Boston 8th and Minnesota 11th, calling it a virtual push, and he downplays the Twins’ poor road record because Boston is only 9-6 at home. With comparable bats, the far better bullpen, and the steadier starter, Brandon likes "Twins ML +100" for Saturday.

Kenny G locked in the Under 9.5 for Twins-Red Sox, calling it his strongest pick of the slate. Bailey Ober has yielded exactly one earned run across four of his last five starts while posting a 0.94 WHIP during that stretch, and Boston counters with rookie Hunter Dobbins, who owns a 2.45 ERA through two big-league outings (11 IP, 10 K, 2 BB) after stifling the White Sox and Cardinals. Neither bullpen is elite but both are usable—Minnesota 3.75 ERA, Boston 4.17—and Kenny expects each club to lean on its better high-leverage arms in a tight contest. Offensively, Minnesota is scuffling (one, three, two, one runs in four of its last five and 21st in batting average), while Boston’s lineup has become boom-or-bust, scoring 10+ only twice in seven games yet ranking fourth in season-long runs thanks to occasional explosions. With the Twins 19-11-3 to the under and 4-13 on the road, plus Fenway expecting 8–10 mph winds blowing in from right, Kenny projected something closer to 4-3 than the double-digit total the books require.

Dylan Rockford sided with the Red Sox money line despite Sean Newcomb’s warts, citing multiple matchup angles. Minnesota is 4-13 on the highway and owns one of the league’s worst wRC+ splits versus left-handed pitching. Boston, meanwhile, hits .268 with a .761 OPS at Fenway against righties and carries an 8-6 home record. Rockford expects some regression for Bailey Ober after a month of sparkling numbers and believes Newcomb can produce a workmanlike start—five innings, three runs—good enough for Boston’s bats to outscore a Twins lineup that rarely solves southpaws. He would play the Sox up to –115.

Scott Reichel recommended taking the Twins on the first-five money line (and potentially full-game) because Bailey Ober has quietly locked in after a rocky debut. Ober has surrendered fewer than two earned runs in four of his last five outings and fewer than four in six straight, giving Minnesota a decisive starting-pitching edge over emergency starter Sean Newcomb. Reichel reminded listeners of Newcomb’s long-standing walk issues, lack of stamina, and the fact that Boston’s bullpen ranks bottom-10 in xFIP. Even though the Twins are just 4-13 on the road, he trusts Ober’s current form far more than Newcomb plus a shaky relief corps, making Minnesota at roughly –105 a play.

Computer says Red Sox 5-4, recommending Boston -115 and the under 9.5. Hunter Dobbins has opened his career 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, while Minnesota’s Bailey Ober sports a 4.13 mark. Boston’s offense sits 4th in wRC+, and Fenway’s marine layer in early May supports the under call.

It's The Final Round said Jarren Duran is a must-play hit or total-bases prop today against Bailey Ober. Ober leans on his four-seam 46 % of the time and is getting torched on it (.300 AVG, 9-for-30 with a homer). Duran owns a .294 average and two bombs against four-seamers this year. Ober’s change-up (.333 AVG allowed) and slider (.286, 1 HR) are not faring better, while Duran is batting .263 off change-ups and .333 off sliders. The tout highlighted launch-angle sweet-spot data: Duran is at 36.6 % (88th of 262 hitters) while Ober allows a 35.2 % sweet-spot rate (224th of 373 pitchers), meaning the pitcher consistently gives up the 8-32° angles that turn into base knocks. Duran has hits in 16 of his last 17 games, so the analyst expects him to keep raking and likes him for over 1.5 total bases, hits props, and DFS cash-game use.

Erik Halterman recommended adding Lucas Giolito as he returns from hamstring and internal-brace surgery to a Red Sox organization that has quietly excelled at pitcher development. Giolito’s career has swung wildly—5.48 ERA his first three seasons, 3.47 ERA the next three, then 4.89 the last two years he was healthy—but Halterman views him as a worthwhile gamble given Boston’s track record and the chance that the time off allowed him to reset physically and mechanically. Managers searching for upside innings should see if Giolito is still on the wire.

Marcus called Bailey Ober the lone sub-$9k arm worth trusting. Even with Boston’s potent lineup, Ober has logged at least 18 DK points in three straight outings and costs only $8,000. His ability to work deep into games and limit walks provides a solid floor for cash builds on an otherwise top-heavy pitching slate.

Razzle plans to cut Brayan Bello from his build despite jotting him down initially. Bello’s 4.5 K prop is middling, he has issued too many walks, and he has allowed at least one homer in every 2025 start. With only +205 win odds against Minnesota and no path to a ceiling score, Razzle sees no reason to take the risk on a 12-game slate loaded with stronger mid-tier arms.

Razzle labeled Joe Ryan a boom-bust tourney play. Ryan carries a 6.5 strikeout prop juiced to the over—one of the slate’s top three—and is +165 for a win despite a 9.0 game total. Boston provides punch-outs (11-K and 8-K outings in two of Ryan’s last three). Power risk exists versus hot right-handed bats, but Razzle is willing to embrace that variance for the 30-DKP ceiling Ryan has already flashed this season.

Polzin noted PrizePicks set Joe Ryan’s pitching fantasy score at 25.5 while both Underdog and major books sit 27–27.5. Even after adjusting for the Yankees’ potent lineup and an 8.5 run total, projections give Ryan a 52.3% chance to clear the higher market number thanks to his 30-point effort against New York earlier this season and back-to-back 8-strikeout outings. With Minnesota only +1.2 on the moneyline, Ryan retains win and quality-start equity, making the OVER a slight but actionable edge.

Chris Ruffolo recommended Trevor Larnach at +550 to leave the yard in Fenway Park. He noted that Brayan Bello has struggled to keep the ball in the park against left-handed bats, especially in Boston where lefties do not have to clear the Green Monster. Larnach is the premier left-handed power option in Minnesota's lineup and Ruffolo expects him to capitalize on Bello's fly-ball tendencies, making the plus-money price attractive for a single-game or parlayed homer prop.

Guy Boston bet David Hamilton under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –165. Hamilton has stayed below this mark in 7 of his past 10 and 8 of 11 games overall (73%) while averaging just 0.64 HRR. He managed the under in both career meetings with Minnesota and owns a .100 batting average with a –8.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Although Joe Ryan’s batting average allowed rises to .250 versus lefties, Boston does not see Hamilton—an occasional starter with little pop—suddenly piling up production. The weak platoon numbers and small-sample history make this a strong fade as the fourth leg.

Zarpentine played Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases at +115. Bregman rides an 11-game hitting streak in which he has reached two or more bases seven times thanks to a surge in doubles and homers. He also owns a 6-for-13 (.462) line with four extra-base hits off Friday starter Joe Ryan. That track record, combined with current form, convinced Zarpentine the plus money is worth chasing.

Zarpentine highlighted Alex Bregman’s Over 1.5 Total Bases at +115, pointing to an 11-game hit streak in which Bregman has cleared this number seven times thanks to a barrage of doubles and homers. The matchup is especially appealing: Bregman owns a 6-for-13 (.462) career line with four extra-base hits against Minnesota starter Joe Ryan. With both recent form and head-to-head success aligned, Zarpentine expects another multi-base effort from the red-hot third baseman.

The same tout grabbed the under, noting that four of Joe Ryan’s last five starts have stayed below the number and Minnesota has hit five unders in its past six. Bello has allowed only 10 hits and four runs across 11 innings since activation, while Boston’s staff sports a 4.03 team ERA (top-half MLB). Both clubs sit in the bottom third of OPS over the previous week, so Cash Out Sports Picks anticipates a pitchers’ duel Friday night.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the short price with Boston, highlighting Brayan Bello’s 3.27 ERA and two wins since returning, both supported by 8- and 13-run outbursts from the offense. Joe Ryan owns strong surface numbers (3.18 ERA, 39 K, 4 BB), yet Minnesota’s lineup remains bottom-five in runs per game and has failed to give him support. With Fenway bats alive when Bello pitches and the Twins stuck at 5-11 on the road, the tout prefers the Red Sox money line.

Calling out a Fenway homer spot, Lindquist likes Wilyer Abreu to go yard against extreme fly-ball right-hander Joe Ryan. Abreu sports a 22.2-degree launch angle, .400 xwOBA and .547 expected slugging, metrics Lindquist trusts even after Thursday’s near-miss in Toronto. Ryan’s profile—career-long fly-ball tendencies despite a tidy .223 xBA—amplifies Abreu’s upside in a park tailor-made for left-handed pull power. Books have been hanging attractive +400ish numbers on Abreu; Lindquist will hunt a similar price for Friday.

Kirby called Lucas Giolito a “dangerous” fantasy play but one she still wants on her rosters for the strikeouts. After watching five-plus dominant innings before one bad change-up turned into a Dalton Varsho bomb, she expects a strikeout-per-inning pace to hold because Giolito’s four-seamer and changeup command looked sharper than any point in 2023. She cautioned managers to brace for occasional blow-ups—Fenway’s short left field and Giolito’s fly-ball tendencies (career 45% FB rate) make that inevitable—but argued that a mid-3s ERA is realistic if he continues locating his change below the zone. In roto leagues starved for strikeouts, Kirby would prioritize Giolito over streamer types and views him as a high-variance SP4 with upside.

Just A Bet Outside said Joe Ryan’s strikeout over looks dicey at Fenway. He pointed out that Ryan’s K-rate plummets from 37.9% at home to just 20.6% on the road and that the right-hander whiffs only 16.7% of left-handed hitters compared to 37.5% of righties. The Red Sox have the 6th-highest K-rate vs righties over the past three weeks (23.3%), but Steven argued that stat is inflated by Boston’s right-handed bats; their projected lineup could load up on lefties to exploit Ryan’s split. Coming off an 11-K gem against the Angels— MLB’s most strikeout-prone team— the market may overreact with a lofty K line, creating value on the under or a stay-away. He advised bettors to pass or take the under unless books hang a modest number.

Brad Francis took Boston on the money line, pointing out that Minnesota has dropped six straight games as an AL East underdog and just finished a series versus Cleveland where their bats went silent. After back-to-back losses to Toronto, Francis thinks Fenway is the perfect get-right spot and expects the Red Sox lineup to handle a Twins club that struggles on the road.

Romanelli is taking Minnesota as short road favorites behind Joe Ryan, who owns a 27:3 K:BB over his last 20 innings and has produced quality starts in both of his career appearances against Boston. Ryan’s riding a career-best whiff rate and should benefit from Fenway’s marine layer in a cool May night. Conversely, Walker Buehler has struck out only three of the last 24 batters he’s faced and was barreled up seven times by Cleveland. Romanelli likes the Twins’ recent approach—cutting strikeouts and ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate over the last week—and trusts their fourth-ranked bullpen to finish the job. He’s on Minnesota’s money line.

Scott Reichel is looking to bet the under (projected total around 8–8.5) in Joe Ryan vs Walker Buehler. Ryan just blanked the Angels for seven innings with 11 strikeouts and owns top-15 K-minus-BB numbers. Buehler has quietly righted the ship, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts and logging at least six innings in each. Despite Boston’s recent scoring binge, Reichel pointed out that Minnesota ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ on the road and could single-handedly stall the game total. Both starters regularly work deep, limiting bullpen exposure, and Fenway’s weather forecast shows temperatures in the mid-50s with a light cross-breeze, conditions that suppress power. Reichel believes the total is half a run too high given the pitching matchup and Minnesota’s limp offense.

Lonte Smith disagreed with his co-host and isolated Boston’s team total over (likely 4.5) instead of the full-game number. The Red Sox have scored seven or more runs in four straight and have gone 5-0 in Walker Buehler’s last five starts thanks to explosive run support. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 24th in ERA and just worked heavily in a rain-delayed series, leaving middle-relief thin behind Joe Ryan. Smith acknowledged Ryan’s ceiling but noted his home/road splits favor Minnesota and that he has issued seven walks over his past two outings. If Ryan’s pitch count climbs early, Lonte expects Boston’s top-5 hard-hit lineup (.341 team wOBA at Fenway) to feast on shaky Twins relievers, making the Sox’s individual number the safer angle.

Chris Welsh advised fantasy managers to cash out on Byron Buxton’s early counting-stat surge while they still can. Buxton is sitting on six homers and seven steals, but Welsh pointed to red-flag skills underneath the surface: a .239 average that is fully supported by a .233 xBA, an ugly 34 % strikeout rate, and the same high-octane style of play that has landed him on the IL in six straight seasons. He noted that Buxton is barreling the ball and hitting it hard, which makes the Twins outfielder attractive in trades right now, but warned that history shows the counting stats dry up the moment the injuries arrive. Welsh said he would gladly flip Buxton for a more stable bat like Cody Bellinger—‘and if you can squeeze a pitcher on top, even better’—before the next missed-time spiral begins.

Chris Welsh urged deep-league managers to grab Zebby Matthews now as a one-week stash. In five Double-A starts the right-hander owns a sub-2.00 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 23 innings, flashing plus command and a whiff-heavy changeup. Welsh noted Minnesota’s rotation is already stretching Chris Paddack and could easily pivot to Matthews or David Festa when the next vacancy pops up. He admitted there is no firm promotion date, but said anyone who can hold Matthews for "a week, week-and-a-half" should take the shot before the buzz hits.

Chris Welsh said Lucas Giolito should be scooped off waivers and immediately worked into fantasy rotations after the right-hander’s first start back from the IL. Giolito fanned seven Blue Jays over six innings, giving up three earned while touching 96 mph (up two ticks from his April average) and sitting 93. The slider velocity was up a full mile per hour year-over-year, and although he leaned heavily on fastball/change-up in this one, Welsh expects the slider usage to climb as he builds up. Toronto is a top-10 power lineup, so holding them to three runs convinced Welsh Giolito is healthy and the stuff is back. He advised starting Giolito in his next turn unless it comes against an elite power offense, calling the former ace a “pickup everywhere” for managers needing strikeouts and a potential trade chip once the buzz really kicks in.

Carlos Correa’s 2-for-5 (.400) line versus Brayan Bello plus hits in six of his last seven games prompted the tout to tag him as a deeper-card prop play for May 2.